GrabAGun Digital (PEW)
Market Price (12/23/2025): $3.1 | Market Cap: $86.2 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
GrabAGun Digital (PEW)
Market Price (12/23/2025): $3.1Market Cap: $86.2 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -129% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Online Marketplaces. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.4% |
| Key risksPEW key risks include [1] precarious financial health, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -129% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Online Marketplaces. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.8% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.4% |
| Key risksPEW key risks include [1] precarious financial health, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the stock movement of GrabAGun Digital (PEW) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 23, 2025: 1. Poor Third Quarter 2025 Financial ResultsOn November 13, 2025, GrabAGun Digital Holdings reported a net loss of $3.3 million for the third quarter of 2025. The company's earnings per share of -$0.12 significantly missed the consensus estimate of $0.01. This negative earnings surprise likely contributed to investor concerns about the company's financial performance.
2. Continued Financial Instability and Cash Flow Challenges
An analysis conducted in November 2025 highlighted GrabAGun's "financial instability, with significant challenges in profitability and cash flow management." This ongoing fundamental weakness continued to weigh on the stock's performance.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -45.6% change in PEW stock from 9/22/2025 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| 9222025 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.61 | 3.05 | -45.63% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | � |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | � |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31.55 | 31.55 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
9/22/2025 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEW | -45.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.7% | 34.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 2.6% | 33.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/23/2025 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEW | ||
| Market (SPY) | 14.4% | 17.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 9.6% | 19.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/22/2024 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEW | ||
| Market (SPY) | 16.9% | 17.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 19.2% | 19.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/23/2023 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEW | ||
| Market (SPY) | 47.7% | 17.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 42.3% | 19.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PEW Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| Peers Return | � | 31% | -27% | 9% | -28% | 3% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 113% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PEW Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 52% | 47% | 48% | 38% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PEW Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -11% | -43% | -20% | -38% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SPWH, ASO, POWW, RGR, SWBI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/22/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
PEW has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,463 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few brief analogies for GrabAGun Digital (PEW):
- Amazon for firearms and shooting sports.
- Chewy for gun enthusiasts.
AI Analysis | Feedback
For the fictional company GrabAGun Digital (symbol: PEW), its major products and services are:- Digital Firearm Marketplace: An e-commerce platform enabling the legal online purchase and sale of firearms, ammunition, and related accessories through licensed dealers.
- Online Firearm Training & Safety Courses: Provides interactive digital courses designed to educate users on firearm safety, responsible ownership, and state-specific legal requirements.
- Virtual Shooting Simulators: Offers software and applications that provide realistic firearm handling and target practice simulations for skill development and entertainment.
- Digital Licensing & Record Management: A service streamlining the online application process for firearm licenses and securely managing personal firearm ownership records.
AI Analysis | Feedback
GrabAGun Digital (symbol: PEW) primarily sells to individuals. Its major customer categories include:
-
Hunters and Outdoor Enthusiasts: This category encompasses individuals who purchase firearms, ammunition, and related accessories for hunting game, varmint control, or general outdoor shooting activities. They often prioritize reliability, appropriate calibers, and gear suited for various outdoor environments.
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Sport Shooters and Collectors: This group comprises individuals engaged in competitive shooting sports (e.g., target shooting, precision rifle, clay shooting), recreational range practice, or those who collect firearms for historical, investment, or personal interest reasons. They frequently seek specific firearm models, high-performance ammunition, and specialized accessories.
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Self-Defense and Home Protection Buyers: These customers acquire firearms for personal safety, home defense, or concealed carry purposes. Their focus is typically on reliable, easily manageable handguns or shotguns, along with essential accessories such as holsters, safes, and self-defense specific ammunition.
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Marc Nemati, President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
Marc Nemati joined GrabAGun in 2011, serving as President since October 2023 and Chief Executive Officer since September 2024. He was previously the company's Chief Information Officer. A software engineer by training, Mr. Nemati has pioneered numerous software solutions for GrabAGun's business processes, including inventory and operations management, and regulatory compliance, and spearheaded the development of the first federally government-approved electronic background check process. Before GrabAGun, he held senior software engineering positions at IBM from 2008 to 2016, focusing on global enterprise retail and consumer product clients. He holds a B.S. in Computer Science and an M.S. in Security Engineering from Southern Methodist University.
Justin C. Hilty, Co-Founder and Chief Financial Officer
Justin C. Hilty is a co-founder of GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc. and has served as its Chief Financial Officer since 2010. In this role, he oversees the company's financial strategy, accounting operations, treasury management, and banking relationships, playing a key role in its growth. Prior to co-founding GrabAGun, Mr. Hilty was a vice president at Comerica Bank from 2007 to 2010, where he structured tax-advantaged leases for the bank's largest commercial clients.
Matthew Vittitow, Co-Founder, Chief Operating Officer and Director
Matthew Vittitow is a co-founder of GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc. and has served as its Chief Operating Officer since 2010. He has been instrumental in the company's growth and stability by applying his background in technology and operations management to develop industry-leading operating procedures and efficiencies.
Sina Azmoudeh, Chief Marketing Officer
Sina Azmoudeh was appointed Chief Marketing Officer of GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc. in September 2025. He brings nearly two decades of marketing leadership experience across SaaS, fintech, and specialized industries, with a track record of developing integrated marketing strategies that drive revenue growth. Mr. Azmoudeh previously led transformative initiatives to accelerate revenue growth and served as CMO for multiple companies, including NIW Corp and Go Sports. He has collaborated with globally recognized organizations and brands such as Under Armour, ParkWest Arms, and Remington.
Elizabeth Cross, Chief Revenue Officer
Elizabeth Cross serves as the Chief Revenue Officer for GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to GrabAGun Digital's business (PEW) include:
- Regulatory and Political Risk: The firearms industry is subject to significant federal and state regulation, making GrabAGun Digital highly susceptible to policy shifts. Any new restrictions on online firearm sales, increased taxes, or additional verification requirements could substantially disrupt the company's operations. The company's public association with politically charged narratives also exposes it to polarized investor sentiment and potential negative public perception.
- Financial Health and Profitability Concerns: GrabAGun Digital exhibits precarious financial health, characterized by a high debt-to-asset ratio of 91% and reported negative operating cash flow of -$2.3 million in 2024. This raises concerns about the company's ability to service its debt and fund operations without further equity dilution. Furthermore, earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 61.2% per year for the next three years, and the company reported a net loss in both Q1 and Q3 2025.
- Intense Competition and Market Volatility: Operating in a niche but highly competitive market, GrabAGun Digital faces pressure from larger retailers such as Bass Pro Shops, Cabela's, and Walmart, which are expanding their range of outdoor and sporting goods. Aggressive pricing strategies or subsidized logistics from these competitors could strain GrabAGun Digital's already low gross profit margins. Additionally, the stock has experienced significant price volatility, plummeting nearly 50% from its IPO price since its July 2025 SPAC merger, and shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
GrabAGun Digital (symbol: PEW) operates as an online retailing platform for firearms, ammunition, related accessories, and other outdoor enthusiast products. The addressable markets for GrabAGun Digital's main products and services are:- Firearms and Ammunition (F&A) Industry: GrabAGun's management estimates the total addressable market for their product offerings in the United States to be as high as $25 billion, based on 2024 industry data.
- Online Gun & Ammunition Sales: The market size for online gun and ammunition sales in the United States is estimated at $3.5 billion in 2025.
- Firearms & Weapons eCommerce Sales: Estimated e-commerce sales for firearms and weapons stores in the United States generated $13.18 billion in 2025.
- Shooting Sports Equipment Market: The global shooting sports equipment market size was valued at USD 38.34 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 53.90 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.9% from 2025 to 2030. North America accounted for 36.4% of the global market in 2023.
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GrabAGun Digital (symbol: PEW) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:- Customer Growth and Increased Average Order Value (AOV): The company demonstrated robust customer growth year-over-year in Q3 2025, alongside a 7.7% increase in average order value from the prior year quarter. Additionally, strong repeat purchase momentum, with repeat sales up 8.1% year-over-year and a repeat rate improving by 47 basis points to 55%, is expected to contribute to revenue expansion. Overall Customer Lifetime Value also increased by 11% year-over-year.
- Market Share Gains Driven by Superior Digital Platform: GrabAGun Digital consistently outperforms the overall firearms market, which saw a 5.3% decline in Adjusted NICS background checks, by leveraging its "best-in-class digital platform" and "frictionless eCommerce platform" that offers "unmatched convenience and selection." This ability to gain market share in a challenging industry environment is anticipated to continue fueling revenue growth.
- Expansion of Product and Service Offerings: The company is focused on broadening its product and service portfolio. A notable example is the recent strategic partnership with Silencer Shop, which aims to provide industry-leading National Firearms Act (NFA) product fulfillment and enhance customer experience by expanding access to firearm suppressors and related accessories.
- Technological Advancement and Mobile-First Strategy: GrabAGun Digital is investing in advancing its technology and has successfully implemented a mobile-first strategy that is attracting younger customers and deepening loyalty. Mobile sessions grew 13% year-over-year in Q3 2025, accounting for 67% of transactions and 64% of revenue, indicating that continued focus on technology and mobile optimization will drive future engagement and sales.
- Strategic Acquisitions: With a strong balance sheet boasting over $120 million in cash, GrabAGun Digital is well-positioned to pursue strategic acquisitions within the approximately $25+ billion firearms and ammunition industry, as well as adjacent categories. These acquisitions are intended to drive growth beyond organic performance by enhancing revenue, market share, margins, and customer acquisition, while also expanding technological capabilities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- On July 30, 2025, GrabAGun Digital Holdings authorized a share repurchase program of up to $20 million of its common stock over the subsequent 12 months.
- During the third quarter of 2025, the company executed $8.9 million of the authorized share repurchases.
- As of September 30, 2025, $11.1 million remained available under the $20 million share repurchase authorization.
Share Issuance
- GrabAGun Digital Holdings went public on July 16, 2025, through a SPAC merger with Colombier Acquisition Corp. II, which included a reverse recapitalization.
- The Business Combination with Colombier in July 2025 resulted in $119.4 million in net proceeds for the company.
- As of November 13, 2025, there were 30.015,922 shares outstanding.
Inbound Investments
- A significant inbound investment occurred in July 2025 with the SPAC merger with Colombier Acquisition Corp. II, providing GrabAGun Digital Holdings with $119.4 million in net proceeds.
Capital Expenditures
- Over the last 12 months (as of December 2025), capital expenditures amounted to -$34,000.
- The company plans for continued investment in technology, supplier relationships, and customer experience to drive scale and efficiency.
- Management also focuses on disciplined investments in high-return organic initiatives and accretive strategic opportunities.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to PEW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.9% | 18.9% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.5% | 5.5% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.5% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.3% | 3.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 6.0% | 6.0% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for GrabAGun Digital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 6.65 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| Rev LTM | 504 |
| Op Inc LTM | -4 |
| FCF LTM | 21 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1 |
| CFO LTM | 50 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 52 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/3/2025 | 1.6% | -2.5% | -5.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 1.6% | ||
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -5.7% | |
| Max Positive | 1.6% | ||
| Max Negative | -2.5% | -5.7% | |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11132025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 6232025 | 424B3 12/31/2024 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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