Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI)
Market Price (9/5/2026): $12.77 | Market Cap: $571.8 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI)
Market Price (9/5/2026): $12.77Market Cap: $571.8 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.3%, Dividend Yield is 4.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.8%, FCF Yield is 14% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Personal Security & Self-Defense. Themes include Firearms Manufacturing. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45% | Key risksSWBI key risks include [1] declining sales and profitability from a downturn in consumer demand, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.3%, Dividend Yield is 4.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.8%, FCF Yield is 14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Personal Security & Self-Defense. Themes include Firearms Manufacturing. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45% |
| Key risksSWBI key risks include [1] declining sales and profitability from a downturn in consumer demand, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) stock has lost about 15% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mounting Legislative and Regulatory Headwinds for the Firearms Industry.
The period between late May and early September 2026 saw a significant increase in gun control legislation and regulatory actions at both federal and state levels, creating uncertainty and anticipated negative impacts on firearm demand. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) announced a comprehensive package of proposed and final regulatory reforms on April 29, 2026, aimed at modernizing firearms regulations, which introduced an element of regulatory uncertainty for manufacturers like Smith & Wesson Brands. Concurrently, several states implemented or prepared to enact new gun safety laws, including Colorado's permit-to-purchase requirement taking effect on August 1, 2026, and an increase in the minimum age to purchase ammunition to 21 starting July 1, 2026. Rhode Island introduced an "Assault Weapons Ban Act" effective July 1, 2026, and Virginia implemented new laws in July 2026, including limits on assault weapons and magazines. A landmark court ruling in February 2026 also reshaped gun legislation across the country. These collective legislative and regulatory changes likely contributed to investor apprehension regarding the future market for firearms, despite strong company-specific performance in fiscal Q4 2026.
2. Market Overvaluation Concerns and Analyst Downgrade.
Despite Smith & Wesson Brands reporting robust financial results for fiscal Q4 2026 on June 17, 2026, with diluted EPS of $0.36 significantly exceeding analyst estimates of $0.23 and net sales of $178.4 million beating expectations, the stock faced pressures from overvaluation concerns and a subsequent analyst downgrade. Around June 16, 2026, the stock was identified as overvalued by GuruFocus, trading 10.2% above its intrinsic value estimate of $12.59. This perception of overvaluation was compounded by an analyst downgrade from a 'buy' to a 'hold' rating in June 2026, which reportedly contributed to a 10.8% drop in the stock price through September 3, 2026. This shift in market sentiment and analyst outlook likely weighed heavily on investor confidence during the specified period.
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Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) stock has lost about 15% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mounting Legislative and Regulatory Headwinds for the Firearms Industry.
The period between late May and early September 2026 saw a significant increase in gun control legislation and regulatory actions at both federal and state levels, creating uncertainty and anticipated negative impacts on firearm demand. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) announced a comprehensive package of proposed and final regulatory reforms on April 29, 2026, aimed at modernizing firearms regulations, which introduced an element of regulatory uncertainty for manufacturers like Smith & Wesson Brands. Concurrently, several states implemented or prepared to enact new gun safety laws, including Colorado's permit-to-purchase requirement taking effect on August 1, 2026, and an increase in the minimum age to purchase ammunition to 21 starting July 1, 2026. Rhode Island introduced an "Assault Weapons Ban Act" effective July 1, 2026, and Virginia implemented new laws in July 2026, including limits on assault weapons and magazines. A landmark court ruling in February 2026 also reshaped gun legislation across the country. These collective legislative and regulatory changes likely contributed to investor apprehension regarding the future market for firearms, despite strong company-specific performance in fiscal Q4 2026.
2. Market Overvaluation Concerns and Analyst Downgrade.
Despite Smith & Wesson Brands reporting robust financial results for fiscal Q4 2026 on June 17, 2026, with diluted EPS of $0.36 significantly exceeding analyst estimates of $0.23 and net sales of $178.4 million beating expectations, the stock faced pressures from overvaluation concerns and a subsequent analyst downgrade. Around June 16, 2026, the stock was identified as overvalued by GuruFocus, trading 10.2% above its intrinsic value estimate of $12.59. This perception of overvaluation was compounded by an analyst downgrade from a 'buy' to a 'hold' rating in June 2026, which reportedly contributed to a 10.8% drop in the stock price through September 3, 2026. This shift in market sentiment and analyst outlook likely weighed heavily on investor confidence during the specified period.
3. Absence of Significant Insider Buying Activity.
During the three months leading up to September 3, 2026, there was a notable absence of significant insider buying activity for Smith & Wesson Brands that would typically signal strong internal confidence. While some tax-related share dispositions occurred, such as a Vice President of Marketing having 7,721 shares withheld for tax obligations valued at approximately $111,000 in June 2026, these were not discretionary sales and did not exceed the $5 million threshold to indicate substantial insider selling. The general lack of insider purchases above the specified threshold during this period could have been interpreted by the market as a lukewarm endorsement from company executives and directors, contributing to a more cautious investor sentiment as the stock experienced its decline.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.6% change in SWBI stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -61.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.09 | 12.89 | -14.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 486 | 551 | 13.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.2% | 4.4% | 98.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 61.6 | 23.6 | -61.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 44 | 45 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SWBI | -14.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.8% | 25.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 1.2% | 20.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.3% change in SWBI stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 124.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.69 | 12.89 | 10.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 466 | 551 | 18.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.0% | 4.4% | 124.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 56.1 | 23.6 | -58.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 44 | 45 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SWBI | 10.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 10.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | -0.8% | 12.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 64.9% change in SWBI stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 57.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.82 | 12.89 | 64.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 475 | 551 | 16.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.8% | 4.4% | 57.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.6 | 23.6 | -8.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 44 | 45 | -1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 64.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SWBI | 64.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.4% | 15.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 16.5% | 17.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 25.0% change in SWBI stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 83.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.31 | 12.89 | 25.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 479 | 551 | 15.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.7% | 4.4% | -42.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.8 | 23.6 | 83.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 46 | 45 | 2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 25.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SWBI | 25.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.1% | 17.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 68.7% | 19.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SWBI Return | 2% | -50% | 62% | -23% | 3% | 27% | -16% |
| Peers Return | 52% | -27% | 11% | 21% | -8% | 10% | 51% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SWBI Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 47% | 53% | 50% | 47% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SWBI Max Drawdown | -54% | -54% | -21% | -44% | -29% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -50% | -31% | -34% | -48% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RGR, OLN, POWW, AOUT, AXON.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SWBI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -43.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 534 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 546 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1227 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Smith & Wesson Brands's stock fell -20.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | SWBI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -43.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 534 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1227 days | 6 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 272.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 146 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Smith & Wesson Brands's stock fell -20.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI)
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) is a prominent global designer, manufacturer, and seller of firearms and related products. The company's primary offerings include a diverse range of handguns, such as revolvers and pistols, and various long guns, including modern sporting rifles, bolt action rifles, and muzzleloaders. They also provide complementary firearm-related products like handcuffs and suppressors, all marketed under well-known brands such as Smith & Wesson, M&P, Performance Center, and Gemtech.
Beyond its core firearm manufacturing, SWBI leverages its extensive capabilities to offer precision manufacturing services to other businesses. These services, provided under the Smith & Wesson and Smith & Wesson Precision Components brand names, include specialized processes like forging, heat treating, rapid prototyping, tooling, machining, and custom plastic injection molding, showcasing the company's advanced engineering and production expertise.
The company serves a broad and diverse customer base across various markets. Its products appeal to firearm enthusiasts, collectors, hunters, sportsmen, and competitive shooters. Additionally, Smith & Wesson provides essential tools for individuals seeking home and personal protection, and its firearms are trusted by law enforcement, security agencies, and military organizations worldwide. Products are distributed through independent dealers, retailers, and direct-to-consumer channels.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Smith & Wesson Brands:
- Harley-Davidson for guns: Like Harley-Davidson, Smith & Wesson is an iconic American legacy brand with a strong enthusiast following, known for manufacturing durable, specialized products with a deep history.
- Nike for firearms: Similar to Nike, Smith & Wesson is a leading brand that designs, manufactures, and sells a diverse range of equipment (firearms) for various user segments, from sporting and hunting to personal protection and law enforcement.
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- Handguns: Smith & Wesson designs and manufactures various revolvers and pistols.
- Long Guns: The company produces modern sporting rifles, bolt action rifles, and muzzleloaders.
- Firearm Accessories: They sell suppressors, handcuffs, and other firearm-related products.
- Manufacturing Services: SWBI provides custom manufacturing services, including forging, heat treating, and plastic injection molding, to other businesses.
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Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) primarily sells its products to a diverse range of end-users, encompassing individuals and professional agencies. Based on the company description, the major categories of customers it serves include:
- Recreational and Sporting Users: This broad category includes firearm enthusiasts, collectors, hunters, sportsmen, and competitive shooters who purchase firearms for leisure, collection, or sport.
- Individuals for Personal Protection: Customers who acquire firearms for the purpose of home and personal defense.
- Professional and Institutional Agencies: This segment comprises law enforcement agencies and officers, security agencies and officers, and military agencies.
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Mark P. Smith, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director
Mark P. Smith has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. since August 2020. He joined the company in 2010 and held several positions with increasing responsibility, including Vice President of Supply Chain Management (2010-2011), Vice President of Manufacturing and Supply Chain Management (2011-2016), President, Manufacturing Services (2016-2020), and Co-President and Co-Chief Executive Officer (January 2020-August 2020). Prior to joining Smith & Wesson, Mr. Smith was the Director Supply Chain Solutions for Alvarez & Marsal Business Consulting, LLC from 2007 to 2010. He also held various positions at Ecolab, Inc. from 2001 to 2007 and was a Production Supervisor for Bell Aromatics from 1999 to 2001.
Deana L. McPherson, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, and Assistant Secretary
Deana L. McPherson has served as Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, and Assistant Secretary of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. since August 2020. She joined Smith & Wesson in June 2007 as Corporate Controller. Subsequently, she was promoted to Vice President of Finance and Corporate Controller, and later became Chief Accounting Officer in 2017. Before her tenure at Smith & Wesson, Ms. McPherson served as Vice President of Finance at Wood Group from 2001 to 2007. Her career also includes experience as an Accounting Manager at FiberMark DSI, Inc. (formerly Rexam DSI, Inc.) from 1995 to 2001, and as an auditor at Deloitte & Touche LLP from 1992 to 1995. She is a Certified Public Accountant and a Chartered Global Management Accountant.
Kevin A. Maxwell, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer and Secretary
Kevin A. Maxwell has served as Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer, and Secretary since November 2021. From 2016 to 2021, he held leadership roles within the legal department of WestRock Company, a publicly traded paper and packaging company, including Vice President – Associate General Counsel and Assistant Secretary. Prior to that, from 2010 to 2016, Mr. Maxwell held various positions with increasing responsibility at Mueller Water Products, Inc., a publicly traded water infrastructure company, including Vice President – Assistant General Counsel and Assistant Secretary. He also worked as a corporate associate in the London and Washington, DC offices of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom from 2004 to 2010.
Susan Jean Cupero, Vice President, Sales
Susan Jean Cupero serves as the Vice President, Sales for Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.
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- Cyclicality of Firearms Demand and Macroeconomic Headwinds: Smith & Wesson's business is highly susceptible to the cyclical nature of firearms demand, which is sensitive to consumer sentiment, political events, inflation, and interest rates. The company has experienced declines in revenue and profitability due to these macroeconomic pressures impacting discretionary spending.
- Regulatory and Litigation Risks: The firearms industry faces persistent legal and operational threats from potential increases in firearm regulation, state-level restrictions (such as microstamping), and product liability exposures. While the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA) provides some protection, efforts to circumvent this law through consumer protection statutes pose an ongoing risk.
- Operational and Financial Reporting Weaknesses: Smith & Wesson has experienced margin erosion and cost pressures, leading to choppy profitability. The company has also disclosed a material weakness in its internal control over financial reporting, specifically related to the accrual of certain legal expenses. This deficiency raises the risk of material misstatements in financial statements and could impact investor confidence, despite ongoing remediation efforts.
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The proliferation of advanced 3D printing technology and readily available designs for firearms poses an emerging threat. This technology enables individuals to manufacture functional firearms and components ("ghost guns") outside of traditional manufacturing and distribution channels. As 3D printing technology improves in reliability, material capability, and accessibility, it could erode demand for commercially produced firearms by offering an unregulated and decentralized method of acquisition, thereby directly bypassing traditional firearm manufacturers like Smith & Wesson Brands and challenging their established business model and market share.
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Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) operates in several addressable markets, primarily focusing on firearms and related accessories. Here's an overview of the market sizes for their main products and services:
Firearms Market
- The global firearms market size was valued at approximately USD 45.5 billion in 2024, with projections to reach USD 70.6 billion by 2032.
- North America held the largest share of the firearms market, accounting for 40% in 2024.
- The U.S. firearms market alone was valued at over USD 3.7 billion in 2024.
- The broader global gun market, which includes sales of firearms, ammunition, accessories, and related services, was estimated at approximately USD 150 billion in 2023.
Handguns
- The global handgun market size was USD 3.76 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 6.13 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.25% from 2025-2032.
- The North America handgun market was valued at USD 1.64 billion in 2025 and USD 1.74 billion in 2026. North America dominated the handgun market with a 42.20% share in 2025.
Suppressors (Gun Silencers) Market
- The global gun silencers market (also known as suppressors) is anticipated to be worth USD 380 million in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 641.9 million by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 6.0%.
- Another estimate indicates the global gun sound suppressor market is projected to reach approximately USD 1.5 billion by 2033.
- The United States is the global leader in the gun silencer market, with 3.2 million suppressors registered as of 2024. The U.S. represents an estimated 74% share of worldwide suppressor registrations.
Handcuffs Market
- The global handcuff market size was valued at USD 2.94 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 4.38 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 5.1% from 2025-2032.
Manufacturing Services
Information on the specific addressable market size for Smith & Wesson Brands' manufacturing services (comprising forging, heat treating, rapid prototyping, tooling, finishing, plating, machining, and custom plastic injection molding to other businesses) is not readily available and therefore, cannot be precisely identified.
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Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market dynamics:
- New Product Launches and Innovation: The company places a strong emphasis on innovation, with new product launches identified as a primary growth engine, accounting for a significant portion of total sales. Management believes that continued innovation, particularly in handguns, will support revenue growth, focusing on product refreshes, expanded colorways, and updates across its semi-automatic pistol line, including premium offerings outside the subcompact category. Recent introductions like Lipsey's Exclusive Revolvers, CSX E-Series pistols, new Spec series handguns, and the return of Night Guard Revolvers demonstrate this ongoing commitment.
- Market Share Gains, particularly in Handguns: Smith & Wesson has demonstrated its ability to gain market share, especially in the handgun segment. The company has reported significant increases in handgun shipments even when overall adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) checks declined, indicating a growing share of the market. CEO Mark Smith has highlighted these market share gains, noting they are supported by strong consumer demand and minimal reliance on promotional activity.
- Disciplined Pricing Strategies and Price Increases: Smith & Wesson has successfully implemented disciplined pricing strategies, including recent price increases, without negative feedback or impact on demand. This ability to maintain or increase average selling prices for its handguns contributes positively to revenue growth and improved margins.
- Expansion and Growth in the Law Enforcement Channel: The company is focused on driving handgun innovation and sales growth within the law enforcement channel. Smith & Wesson expects its assortment of higher-priced handguns and continued success in securing agency adoption to support long-term growth in this key focus area.
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Share Repurchases
- Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. repurchased 1,844,073 shares of its common stock for $25.5 million under the 2023 and 2024 authorizations in fiscal 2025.
- On December 4, 2025, the company's Board of Directors authorized an equity buyback program to repurchase up to $50 million worth of its shares, valid until September 21, 2026.
- Management actively engaged in share repurchases in fiscal years 2024 and 2025 as part of its capital return strategy.
Share Issuance
- The weighted average diluted shares outstanding for Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. has shown a decreasing trend from 55.35 million in fiscal 2021 to 46.25 million in fiscal 2024, and approximately 44 million shares outstanding in Q3 fiscal 2026, indicating share repurchases rather than issuances.
Capital Expenditures
- The company anticipates spending between $25.0 million and $30.0 million on capital expenditures in fiscal 2026, with a focus on new product development and manufacturing capacity.
- Capital expenditures in fiscal 2025 were $21.6 million, which was lower than the previous year, partly due to prior relocation expenses.
- In Q3 fiscal 2026, capital expenditures totaled $18.9 million, primarily directed towards funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
Peer Outperformance in Aerospace & Defense
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWBI | Smith & Wesson Brands | 3.2% | 23.6x | 64.1% | 30.3% | -30.6% | — |
| ATI | ATI | 4.6% | 60.3x | 173.0% | 367.2% | 1074.2% | +1,105pp |
| DCO | Ducommun | 5.1% | -84.6x | 84.2% | 275.0% | 230.9% | +262pp |
| HXL | Hexcel | 5.1% | 45.4x | 44.6% | 30.7% | 69.6% | +100pp |
| HII | Huntington Ingalls Industries | 6.8% | 17.1x | 7.7% | 40.1% | 56.8% | +87pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 18.0% | 111.1% | 190.3% | CDNL 2702% · FIX 2049% · STRL 2005% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 72.8% | 70.4% | 164.7% | HOS 48321% · MATX 188% · KEX 165% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 14.7% | 63.4% | 115.4% | CAT 322% · ALSN 270% · WAB 223% |
| Aerospace & Defense ← | 55 | -1.3% | 57.5% | 70.3% | ATI 1074% · FTAI 885% · HWM 739% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -11.4% | 41.2% | 58.1% | UBER 88% · CAR 58% · LYFT -65% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 30.7% | 72.2% | 46.1% | FSTR 135% · CSX 65% · UNP 51% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 8.8% | 49.3% | 45.1% | CRS 1411% · PSIX 952% · EROC 609% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 35.6% | 5.9% | 35.4% | XPO 258% · R 251% · CVLG 209% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 0.7% | 39.0% | 32.8% | DXPE 533% · AIT 289% · WCC 214% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 13.1% | 32.4% | 26.8% | LIME 4173% · TH 371% · WLFC 360% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 41 | 19.1% | 51.3% | 21.7% | POWL 2201% · BE 1055% · VRT 900% |
| Building Products | 33 | -9.7% | 7.2% | 19.4% | LMB 575% · GFF 398% · PPIH 300% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -9.7% | -20.5% | -6.3% | HURN 214% · GRNQ 137% · CRAI 89% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 14.0% | -1.4% | -7.2% | BLBD 213% · DE 90% · GENC 59% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 10.4% | 15.4% | -8.5% | RCMT 676% · CSW 141% · CSL 80% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -8.8% | 16.4% | -12.0% | CECO 880% · ADUR 558% · NVRI 352% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -31.6% | -12.8% | -26.0% | EXLS 49% · BR 11% · G -23% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 3.6% | -1.0% | -26.4% | LTM 2504% · UAL 141% · SKYW 117% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 12.7% | 23.7% | -30.4% | PBI 186% · TILE 157% · HNI 59% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 5.8% | -18.3% | -35.7% | BBSI 86% · ADP 49% · KFY 31% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -6.0% | -22.3% | -39.1% | CHRW 85% · FDX 67% · EXPD 62% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -33.9% | 5.0% | -45.5% | CIX 137% · MG 96% · NL 53% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -66.4% | -76.9% | -57.6% | JOBY -34% · ASLE -58% · UP -100% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
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| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.93 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| Rev LTM | 564 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4 |
| FCF LTM | 65 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 25 |
| CFO LTM | 89 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 54 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 23.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 91.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -5.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firearms | 524 | 475 | 536 | 479 | |
| Handguns | 624 | ||||
| Long Guns | 189 | ||||
| Other Products & Services | 50 | ||||
| Total | 524 | 475 | 536 | 479 | 864 |
| $ Mil | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firearms | 59 | 60 | 30 | 201 | 155 |
| Intersegment Eliminations | 47 | 42 | 46 | 50 | |
| Corporate | -44 | -45 | -44 | -48 | |
| Outdoor Products & Accessories | -111 | -18 | -6 | -4 | |
| Accessories | 2 | ||||
| Coporate | -17 | ||||
| Intersegment eliminations | 19 | ||||
| Total | -49 | 38 | 27 | 200 | 159 |
| $ Mil | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firearms | 468 | 390 | 347 | 393 | 259 |
| Outdoor Products & Accessories | 261 | 377 | 399 | 395 | |
| Perimeter Security | 23 | ||||
| Total | 729 | 767 | 745 | 788 | 281 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $12.89 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/17/1999 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -22.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $14.41 | $13.06 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -10.6% | -1.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 46.7% | 45.0% |
| Downside Capture | 121.55 | 54.08 |
| Upside Capture | 37.54 | 100.35 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 26.0% | 16.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.98 | 0.88 | 1.03 | 0.41 | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| Up Beta | 1.32 | 1.53 | 1.16 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.44 |
| Down Beta | -0.11 | 0.15 | 0.57 | -0.13 | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| Up Capture | -26% | 7% | 68% | 62% | 110% | 31% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 17 | 27 | 59 | 119 | 357 |
| Down Capture | 302% | 167% | 152% | 69% | 70% | 87% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 15 | 25 | 37 | 66 | 124 | 378 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SWBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWBI | 64.4% | 45.0% | 1.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 17.0% | 17.1% | 0.75 | 16.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.7% | 12.8% | 1.13 | 15.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.6% | 29.2% | 0.75 | 7.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 44.1% | 20.4% | 1.69 | 6.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.1% | 13.6% | 0.39 | 7.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.9% | 43.8% | -0.59 | 0.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SWBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWBI | -8.6% | 46.2% | -0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.4% | 17.6% | 0.54 | 26.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 29.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.82 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 19.5% | 0.43 | 4.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.7% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 26.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.6% | 52.6% | 0.38 | 19.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SWBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWBI | -4.2% | 51.9% | 0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 20.0% | 0.59 | 14.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 17.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.4% | 16.3% | 0.62 | 5.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 18.1% | 0.35 | 7.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 13.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 64.0% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 8.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/17/2026 | 17.1% | 14.3% | 10.3% |
| 3/5/2026 | 18.7% | 17.8% | 26.4% |
| 12/4/2025 | 23.0% | 23.5% | 16.9% |
| 9/4/2025 | 6.5% | 14.4% | 22.4% |
| 6/18/2025 | -19.8% | -19.9% | -23.0% |
| 3/6/2025 | -10.9% | -10.9% | -16.0% |
| 12/5/2024 | -20.3% | -18.6% | -26.1% |
| 9/5/2024 | -9.4% | -9.3% | -8.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 15.8% | 17.4% | 22.4% |
| Median Negative | -11.9% | -10.9% | -15.6% |
| Max Positive | 29.4% | 50.6% | 33.0% |
| Max Negative | -28.7% | -22.7% | -26.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/17/2026 | 17.1% | 14.3% | 10.3% |
| 3/5/2026 | 18.7% | 17.8% | 26.4% |
| 12/4/2025 | 23.0% | 23.5% | 16.9% |
| 9/4/2025 | 6.5% | 14.4% | 22.4% |
| 6/18/2025 | -19.8% | -19.9% | -23.0% |
| 3/6/2025 | -10.9% | -10.9% | -16.0% |
| 12/5/2024 | -20.3% | -18.6% | -26.1% |
| 9/5/2024 | -9.4% | -9.3% | -8.5% |
| 6/20/2024 | -12.9% | -9.9% | -6.1% |
| 3/7/2024 | 29.4% | 29.2% | 33.0% |
| 12/7/2023 | -9.1% | -5.9% | -2.8% |
| 9/7/2023 | 10.8% | 9.8% | 24.8% |
| 6/22/2023 | 20.2% | 17.4% | 16.3% |
| 3/9/2023 | 6.2% | 6.9% | 19.0% |
| 12/6/2022 | -19.6% | -22.7% | -21.4% |
| 9/8/2022 | -6.3% | -12.2% | -22.7% |
| 6/23/2022 | 14.5% | -8.6% | -2.9% |
| 3/3/2022 | -12.5% | -9.4% | -13.3% |
| 12/2/2021 | -28.7% | -19.9% | -20.7% |
| 9/1/2021 | -11.2% | -13.9% | -15.6% |
| 6/17/2021 | 17.2% | 50.6% | 23.9% |
| 3/4/2021 | 1.8% | 20.0% | 15.5% |
| 12/3/2020 | 5.2% | 5.9% | 26.1% |
| 9/3/2020 | -3.5% | -9.5% | -8.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 15.8% | 17.4% | 22.4% |
| Median Negative | -11.9% | -10.9% | -15.6% |
| Max Positive | 29.4% | 50.6% | 33.0% |
| Max Negative | -28.7% | -22.7% | -26.1% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 9/4/2026Latest: Q1 2027 Earnings Reported 9/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2027 Revenue Growth | Reported | 10.0% | ||||||
| 2027 Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 6.0% | |||||
Prior: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 6/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2027 Quarterly Dividend | Reported | 0.13 | ||||||
Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 3/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 2.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 9.0% for Q3 2026 | |
Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 12/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 13.0% | Higher New | Guidance: -4.0% for Q2 2026 | |
Smith & Wesson Brands — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Aerospace & Defense Resources |
| Defense News |
| FlightGlobal |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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