Tearsheet

Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.935 | Market Cap: $395.5 Mil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.935
Market Cap: $395.5 Mil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, Dividend Yield is 6.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.9%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 43%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Personal Security & Self-Defense. Themes include Firearms Manufacturing.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, Dividend Yield is 6.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.9%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 43%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Personal Security & Self-Defense. Themes include Firearms Manufacturing.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7%
5 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SWBI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) stock moved during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, based on available information for 2025: **1. Disappointing Fiscal Q4 2025 Results.** Shares of Smith & Wesson fell significantly, specifically by 19.1% on June 19, 2025, after the company reported disappointing fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results. Revenue, EPS, and EBITDA all fell short of Wall Street's estimates.

**2. Weak Post-Pandemic Demand and Macroeconomic Headwinds.** The company contended with weak post-pandemic demand for firearms, compounded by macroeconomic factors such as persistent inflation, rising interest rates, and heightened consumer caution regarding discretionary purchases.

**3. Underwhelming Fiscal Performance and Lower Profitability.** Throughout 2025, SWBI's shares continued to experience a pullback due to consistently underwhelming fiscal performance, with both sales and profitability trending lower than anticipated.

**4. Impact of Lower Production Volume and Higher Promotional Costs.** Gross margins for Smith & Wesson were negatively affected by lower overall production volume and increased promotional costs, particularly noted in its fiscal Q3 and Q4 2025 earnings reports.

**5. Bearish Market Sentiment and Outlook.** Analyst forecasts and market sentiment for late 2025 indicated a generally bearish outlook for SWBI stock, with some predictions anticipating further declines in share value by the end of the year.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SWBI Return138%2%-50%62%-23%-10%38%
Peers Return-11%-2%-3%14%-2%47%40%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SWBI Win Rate67%58%42%42%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate8%8%10%12%5%31% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SWBI Max Drawdown-36%-11%-51%0%-25%-21% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-5%-7%-0%-2%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, BETA, DFSC, PEW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSWBIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-76.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven323.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven83.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven80 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-77.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven335.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven298 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-92.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1286.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2599 days1480 days

Compare to FLY, ATRO, BETA, DFSC, PEW


In The Past

Smith & Wesson Brands's stock fell -76.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/1/2021. A -76.4% loss requires a 323.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI)

Better Bets than Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SWBI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Smith & Wesson Brands

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SWBIFLYATROBETADFSCPEWMedian
NameSmith & .Firefly .AstronicsBETA Tec.DEFSEC T.GrabAGun. 
Mkt Price8.8818.5551.7229.503.543.5613.71
Mkt Cap0.4-1.8---1.1
Rev LTM471101831-4-286
Op Inc LTM20-21150--9-6
FCF LTM-6-19951--9--7
FCF 3Y Avg-31-8--11--11
CFO LTM15-16574--9-3
CFO 3Y Avg34-22--10-22

Growth & Margins

SWBIFLYATROBETADFSCPEWMedian
NameSmith & .Firefly .AstronicsBETA Tec.DEFSEC T.GrabAGun. 
Rev Chg LTM-7.6%-6.2%-166.4%-6.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.6%-19.5%-94.3%-19.5%
Rev Chg Q-3.7%-3.8%-330.2%-3.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.7%-0.9%-35.8%-0.9%
Op Mgn LTM4.3%-209.3%6.0%--209.1%--102.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg7.3%-2.2%--699.5%-2.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%-1.7%-86.7%-1.7%
CFO/Rev LTM3.3%-164.1%8.9%--212.3%--80.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg6.7%-2.5%--716.7%-2.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.3%-197.5%6.1%--216.3%--99.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-6.2%-0.8%--777.8%--6.2%

Valuation

SWBIFLYATROBETADFSCPEWMedian
NameSmith & .Firefly .AstronicsBETA Tec.DEFSEC T.GrabAGun. 
Mkt Cap0.4-1.8---1.1
P/S0.8-1.9---1.4
P/EBIT16.8-32.3---24.6
P/E31.7--523.2----245.8
P/CFO24.8-22.0---23.4
Total Yield9.2%--0.2%---4.5%
Dividend Yield6.0%-0.0%---3.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.3%--0.5%----2.9%
D/E0.3-0.2---0.3
Net D/E0.3-0.2---0.3

Returns

SWBIFLYATROBETADFSCPEWMedian
NameSmith & .Firefly .AstronicsBETA Tec.DEFSEC T.GrabAGun. 
1M Rtn-3.8%-22.0%6.1%--10.6%-20.0%-10.6%
3M Rtn12.3%-58.2%40.5%-19.6%-33.0%12.3%
6M Rtn-5.1%-61.1%---28.0%
12M Rtn-30.7%-215.2%---92.2%
3Y Rtn-18.5%-466.5%---224.0%
1M Excs Rtn-3.8%-22.0%6.1%--10.6%-20.0%-10.6%
3M Excs Rtn4.3%-62.0%27.1%-13.0%-42.0%4.3%
6M Excs Rtn-19.8%-46.4%---13.3%
12M Excs Rtn-44.5%-206.7%---81.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-86.3%-493.7%---203.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Firearms536479   
Handguns  624756391
Long Guns  189253102
Other Products & Services  505037
Total5364798641,059530


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,725,823
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-7.0%
Average Daily Volume511,704
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.33
Basic Shares Quantity44,262,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025904202510-Q 7/31/2025
4302025620202510-K 4/30/2025
1312025306202510-Q 1/31/2025
103120241205202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024905202410-Q 7/31/2024
4302024620202410-K 4/30/2024
1312024307202410-Q 1/31/2024
103120231207202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023907202310-Q 7/31/2023
4302023622202310-K 4/30/2023
1312023309202310-Q 1/31/2023
103120221206202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022908202210-Q 7/31/2022
4302022623202210-K 4/30/2022
1312022303202210-Q 1/31/2022
103120211202202110-Q 10/31/2021