Tearsheet

ODP (ODP)


Market Price (12/11/2025): $28.0 | Market Cap: $840.0 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail

ODP (ODP)


Market Price (12/11/2025): $28.0
Market Cap: $840.0 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Other Specialty Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 14%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.3%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 73%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -90%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -113%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.7%
2  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 103%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.2%
0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 14%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.3%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -90%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -113%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 73%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.7%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 103%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ODP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate 38.2% movement of ODP stock between August 31, 2025, and December 11, 2025:

1. Positive Q2 2025 Outlook for Second Half of 2025: The ODP Corporation announced its second quarter 2025 results on August 6, 2025, just prior to the specified period. Despite reporting overall revenue declines, the company highlighted improved cash flow and made progress on strategic initiatives. Management expressed confidence in continued top-line improvements for its ODP Business Solutions division and strong performance from the retail channel in the second half of 2025, projecting over $115 million in adjusted free cash flow for the full year 2025. This positive outlook likely contributed to an increase in investor confidence.

2. Strategic "Optimize for Growth" Plan and B2B Expansion: Throughout this period, ODP continued to execute its "Optimize for Growth" restructuring plan, focusing on reducing fixed-cost infrastructure and accelerating growth in its business-to-business (B2B) market segments. This strategy involved closing underperforming retail stores while simultaneously expanding into new growth areas. Notable progress included onboarding over 600 new hotel properties and increasing sales in adjacency categories such as cleaning and breakroom supplies, furniture, technology, and copy and print.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ODP Return-89%34%16%24%-60%23%-90%
Peers Return42%19%-12%33%3%3%110%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%113%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ODP Win Rate58%50%42%42%33%58% 
Peers Win Rate57%62%47%63%50%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ODP Max Drawdown-93%0%-26%-12%-61%-47% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-10%-25%-6%-12%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GWW, FAST, MSM, UPS, FDX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/10/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventODPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-42.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven72.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven204 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-93.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1473.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-79.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven397.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-98.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven6598.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to VSCO, HBI, SAH, TSCO, ULTA


In The Past

ODP's stock fell -42.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/11/2021. A -42.2% loss requires a 72.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About ODP (ODP)

Better Bets than ODP (ODP)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ODP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.2%12.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.0%1.0%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.7%-1.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.6%11.6%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.2%12.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.0%1.0%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.7%-1.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.6%11.6%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for ODP

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ODPGWWFASTMSMUPSFDXMedian
NameODP W.W. Gra.Fastenal MSC Indu.United P.FedEx  
Mkt Price28.00995.5740.9384.2999.64284.3191.97
Mkt Cap0.847.647.04.784.567.147.3
Rev LTM6,53317,7507,9983,77089,48388,59112,874
Op Inc LTM1492,4941,6163138,2186,0842,055
FCF LTM1201,2329652414,3963,6541,098
FCF 3Y Avg1761,5101,0693864,7713,1871,290
CFO LTM1912,0481,2103348,4637,5651,629
CFO 3Y Avg2612,0411,2794819,6138,1021,660

Growth & Margins

ODPGWWFASTMSMUPSFDXMedian
NameODP W.W. Gra.Fastenal MSC Indu.United P.FedEx  
Rev Chg LTM-8.9%4.8%6.9%-1.3%-1.3%1.1%-0.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-8.1%6.3%5.5%0.9%-3.9%-2.2%-0.7%
Rev Chg Q-8.7%6.1%11.7%2.7%-3.7%3.1%2.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.3%1.5%2.9%0.7%-0.9%0.8%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM2.3%14.1%20.2%8.3%9.2%6.9%8.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.3%14.9%20.4%10.4%9.5%6.7%10.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%-1.2%0.1%-0.2%-0.1%0.1%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM2.9%11.5%15.1%8.9%9.5%8.5%9.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg3.5%12.0%16.9%12.4%10.5%9.2%11.3%
FCF/Rev LTM1.8%6.9%12.1%6.4%4.9%4.1%5.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.3%8.9%14.2%9.9%5.2%3.6%7.1%

Valuation

ODPGWWFASTMSMUPSFDXMedian
NameODP W.W. Gra.Fastenal MSC Indu.United P.FedEx  
Mkt Cap0.847.647.04.784.567.147.3
P/S0.12.67.01.40.80.61.1
P/EBIT23.218.134.717.99.08.518.0
P/E-92.826.345.925.812.913.019.4
P/CFO4.422.246.515.48.47.111.9
Total Yield-1.1%4.3%3.9%3.9%15.4%10.2%4.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.5%1.7%0.0%7.6%2.5%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg13.6%3.5%2.7%7.4%4.7%5.2%5.0%
D/E0.90.10.00.10.40.70.3
Net D/E0.70.00.00.10.30.60.2

Returns

ODPGWWFASTMSMUPSFDXMedian
NameODP W.W. Gra.Fastenal MSC Indu.United P.FedEx  
1M Rtn0.5%4.8%-1.0%-4.6%7.1%12.0%2.6%
3M Rtn37.8%0.4%-14.2%-7.1%20.9%26.0%10.6%
6M Rtn54.0%-7.3%-3.1%4.6%2.1%28.6%3.3%
12M Rtn-1.3%-13.2%4.8%4.3%-18.2%3.7%1.2%
3Y Rtn-39.5%74.0%73.2%13.7%-34.7%75.1%43.4%
1M Excs Rtn-0.3%4.0%-1.8%-5.4%6.3%11.2%1.8%
3M Excs Rtn26.9%-6.2%-17.6%-12.3%15.2%19.7%4.5%
6M Excs Rtn39.7%-21.6%-17.4%-9.8%-12.3%14.2%-11.0%
12M Excs Rtn-5.1%-28.3%-9.9%-7.4%-28.3%-9.4%-9.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-113.2%2.2%1.2%-60.2%-108.1%-0.2%-30.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Veyer Division5,2885,8835,991  
Office Depot Division3,9184,4874,864  
ODP Business Solutions Division3,9174,0243,6264,6835,279
Eliminations-5,300-5,910-6,021  
Varis Division 75  
Corporate and Discontinued Operations   0 
Other   2211
Retail Division   4,1674,363
CompuCom    994
Total7,8238,4918,4658,87210,647


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Office Depot Division230285325  
ODP Business Solutions Division17414072116271
Veyer Division342830  
Merger and restructuring expenses, net-4-39-51-102-116
Asset impairments-17-14-20-182-56
Selling, general and administrative expenses-87    
Eliminations 0   
Unallocated expenses -91-88-100-100
Varis Division -66-34  
Corporate and Discontinued Operations   0 
Other   -1 
Retail Division   275194
CompuCom    -2
Total3302432346191


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Office Depot Division1,5561,5531,728  
Veyer Division1,0769931,038  
ODP Business Solutions Division7687496541,5811,803
Corporate and Discontinued Operations4877241,3622,0662,106
Varis Division 13083  
Other   510
Retail Division   1,9622,403
CompuCom    989
Total3,8874,1494,8655,6147,311


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,652,462
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520255.6%
Average Daily Volume1,116,417
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.27
Basic Shares Quantity30,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.2%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/20250.3%0.3%0.6%
8/6/20259.5%10.7%21.4%
5/7/20251.2%35.4%32.1%
2/26/2025-21.7%-22.5%-22.8%
11/6/2024-11.4%-18.8%-16.4%
8/7/2024-35.2%-30.6%-26.2%
5/8/2024-16.7%-20.6%-24.9%
2/28/20243.7%-0.6%-1.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141011
# Negative101413
Median Positive4.5%8.4%18.5%
Median Negative-7.3%-4.3%-14.3%
Max Positive18.3%35.4%45.4%
Max Negative-35.2%-30.6%-29.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/28/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/30/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023510202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/24/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/25/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/26/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/25/2021