MSC Industrial Direct (MSM)
Market Price (6/20/2026): $118.56 | Market Cap: $6.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM)
Market Price (6/20/2026): $118.56Market Cap: $6.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Trading Companies & Distributors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Factory Automation, Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -34% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5% Key risksMSM key risks include [1] soft demand in its key manufacturing markets leading to declines in net sales and [2] operational inefficiencies and challenges executing strategic initiatives, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Factory Automation, Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -34% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5% |
| Key risksMSM key risks include [1] soft demand in its key manufacturing markets leading to declines in net sales and [2] operational inefficiencies and challenges executing strategic initiatives, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 6/3/2026
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) stock has gained about 30% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Improved Margins and Profitability Despite Revenue Miss: MSC Industrial Direct reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results on April 1, 2026, where it missed analyst estimates for both revenue and earnings per share. However, the company demonstrated strong operational efficiency with a gross margin expanding to 41.1%, an increase of 10 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted operating margin also improved by 40 basis points year-over-year to 7.5%, and adjusted EPS grew 14% year-over-year to $0.82.
2. Robust Free Cash Flow and Positive Forward Guidance: Despite the Q2 revenue and EPS miss, MSC Industrial Direct saw a significant surge in free cash flow, reaching $73.1 million in the second quarter compared to $24.7 million in the prior year. The company also provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal Q3 2026, projecting average daily sales growth of 5% to 7% year-over-year and an adjusted operating margin of 9.7% to 10.3%, signaling anticipated operational strength.
Show more
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) stock has gained about 30% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Improved Margins and Profitability Despite Revenue Miss: MSC Industrial Direct reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results on April 1, 2026, where it missed analyst estimates for both revenue and earnings per share. However, the company demonstrated strong operational efficiency with a gross margin expanding to 41.1%, an increase of 10 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted operating margin also improved by 40 basis points year-over-year to 7.5%, and adjusted EPS grew 14% year-over-year to $0.82.
2. Robust Free Cash Flow and Positive Forward Guidance: Despite the Q2 revenue and EPS miss, MSC Industrial Direct saw a significant surge in free cash flow, reaching $73.1 million in the second quarter compared to $24.7 million in the prior year. The company also provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal Q3 2026, projecting average daily sales growth of 5% to 7% year-over-year and an adjusted operating margin of 9.7% to 10.3%, signaling anticipated operational strength.
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Updated on 6/3/2026
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) stock has gained about 30% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Improved Margins and Profitability Despite Revenue Miss: MSC Industrial Direct reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results on April 1, 2026, where it missed analyst estimates for both revenue and earnings per share. However, the company demonstrated strong operational efficiency with a gross margin expanding to 41.1%, an increase of 10 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted operating margin also improved by 40 basis points year-over-year to 7.5%, and adjusted EPS grew 14% year-over-year to $0.82.
2. Robust Free Cash Flow and Positive Forward Guidance: Despite the Q2 revenue and EPS miss, MSC Industrial Direct saw a significant surge in free cash flow, reaching $73.1 million in the second quarter compared to $24.7 million in the prior year. The company also provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal Q3 2026, projecting average daily sales growth of 5% to 7% year-over-year and an adjusted operating margin of 9.7% to 10.3%, signaling anticipated operational strength.
3. Favorable Analyst Upgrades and Price Target Revisions: During the specified period, analyst sentiment shifted positively. KeyBanc notably upgraded its price target for MSC Industrial Direct to $117 on April 27, 2026, and further raised it to $129.00 on June 2, 2026, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. This demonstrates increasing confidence from a major analyst firm in the company's future performance.
4. Significant Insider Buying Activity: Mitchell Jacobson, an insider, engaged in substantial purchases of MSC Industrial Direct stock, acquiring 204,676 shares for an estimated value of approximately $17.35 million within the six months leading up to April 1, 2026. Such a significant investment by an insider suggests strong internal conviction regarding the company's value and future prospects.
Show less
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) stock has gained about 30% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Improved Margins and Profitability Despite Revenue Miss: MSC Industrial Direct reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results on April 1, 2026, where it missed analyst estimates for both revenue and earnings per share. However, the company demonstrated strong operational efficiency with a gross margin expanding to 41.1%, an increase of 10 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted operating margin also improved by 40 basis points year-over-year to 7.5%, and adjusted EPS grew 14% year-over-year to $0.82.
2. Robust Free Cash Flow and Positive Forward Guidance: Despite the Q2 revenue and EPS miss, MSC Industrial Direct saw a significant surge in free cash flow, reaching $73.1 million in the second quarter compared to $24.7 million in the prior year. The company also provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal Q3 2026, projecting average daily sales growth of 5% to 7% year-over-year and an adjusted operating margin of 9.7% to 10.3%, signaling anticipated operational strength.
3. Favorable Analyst Upgrades and Price Target Revisions: During the specified period, analyst sentiment shifted positively. KeyBanc notably upgraded its price target for MSC Industrial Direct to $117 on April 27, 2026, and further raised it to $129.00 on June 2, 2026, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. This demonstrates increasing confidence from a major analyst firm in the company's future performance.
4. Significant Insider Buying Activity: Mitchell Jacobson, an insider, engaged in substantial purchases of MSC Industrial Direct stock, acquiring 204,676 shares for an estimated value of approximately $17.35 million within the six months leading up to April 1, 2026. Such a significant investment by an insider suggests strong internal conviction regarding the company's value and future prospects.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 27.5% change in MSM stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 92.94 | 118.51 | 27.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,807 | 3,833 | 0.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.4% | 5.4% | 0.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.4 | 31.8 | 25.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 56 | 56 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 27.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSM | 27.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | 41.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 2.4% | 55.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 35.9% change in MSM stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 30.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 87.20 | 118.51 | 35.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,770 | 3,833 | 1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.3% | 5.4% | 2.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.4 | 31.8 | 30.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 56 | 56 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 35.9% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSM | 35.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 31.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 18.4% | 51.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 51.8% change in MSM stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 56.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 78.08 | 118.51 | 51.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,752 | 3,833 | 2.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.7% | 5.4% | -4.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.4 | 31.8 | 56.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 56 | 56 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 51.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSM | 51.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 33.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 28.4% | 52.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 48.1% change in MSM stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 159.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 80.04 | 118.51 | 48.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,900 | 3,833 | -1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.3% | 5.4% | -42.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.3 | 31.8 | 159.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 56 | 56 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 48.1% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSM | 48.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 46.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 95.3% | 63.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MSM Return | 3% | 1% | 29% | -23% | 17% | 40% | 68% |
| Peers Return | 26% | -5% | 44% | 38% | 15% | 27% | 249% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MSM Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 67% | 33% | 58% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 43% | 60% | 63% | 53% | 73% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MSM Max Drawdown | -17% | -17% | -13% | -27% | -16% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -28% | -17% | -24% | -25% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GWW, FAST, AIT, DXPE, GIC. See MSM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MSM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -11.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -16.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 75 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -34.9% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 15 days |
In The Past
MSC Industrial Direct's stock fell -15.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | MSM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 75 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -34.9% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
MSC Industrial Direct's stock fell -15.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About MSC Industrial Direct (MSM)
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) is a prominent distributor of industrial products and services, specializing in metalworking and Maintenance, Repair, and Operations (MRO) supplies. The company serves as a vital supply chain partner for manufacturing and industrial businesses across the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, providing essential items needed to keep operations running.
The company offers an extensive inventory of approximately 1.9 million stock-keeping units (SKUs). Its comprehensive product range includes cutting tools, measuring instruments, tooling components, various metalworking products, fasteners, abrasives, machinery, hand and power tools, safety and janitorial supplies, plumbing, electrical, and material handling products. MSC distributes these items through a multi-channel approach, leveraging its e-commerce website (mscdirect.com), catalogs, call centers, and a wide network of branch offices and customer fulfillment centers, often enhanced by inventory management solutions for clients.
MSC Industrial Direct's primary customer base is highly diverse, encompassing a broad spectrum of the manufacturing industry and government entities. It serves clients ranging from individual machine shops and small manufacturers to large Fortune 1000 manufacturing corporations and various government agencies, ensuring they have access to the critical supplies necessary for their day-to-day operations and specialized projects.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for MSC Industrial Direct:
- Amazon for industrial parts and supplies.
- The Home Depot for businesses and manufacturers.
- Grainger for machine shops and maintenance teams.
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- Cutting Tools: Tools used for shaping or removing material from workpieces.
- Measuring Instruments: Devices used to determine the dimensions, quantity, or capacity of something.
- Tooling Components: Parts that make up tools or fixtures for manufacturing processes.
- Metalworking Products: A broad category encompassing various items used in the process of working with metals.
- Fasteners: Hardware devices that mechanically join or affix two or more objects together.
- Flat Stock Products: Sheets or plates of raw materials.
- Raw Materials: Unprocessed or minimally processed substances used in manufacturing.
- Abrasives: Materials used for grinding, polishing, or cleaning surfaces.
- Machinery Hand and Power Tools: Manual and electrically/pneumatically powered devices used for construction, repair, or fabrication.
- Safety and Janitorial Supplies: Products essential for workplace safety and maintaining cleanliness.
- Plumbing Supplies: Materials and components used in the installation and repair of water and drainage systems.
- Materials Handling Products: Equipment and systems used for moving, storing, protecting, and controlling materials.
- Power Transmission Components: Mechanical parts that transmit power from a prime mover to a driven machine.
- Electrical Supplies: Components and equipment used in electrical systems and installations.
- Inventory Management Solutions: Services designed to help customers efficiently manage their stock of MRO products.
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MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) primarily sells to other companies and government agencies. Based on the company description, its major customer categories include:
- Individual machine shops: These are typically smaller, specialized businesses in the manufacturing sector.
- Fortune 1000 manufacturing companies: Large, established manufacturing enterprises across various industries.
- Government agencies: Various federal, state, and local government entities.
- Manufacturers of various sizes: This broad category encompasses a wide range of manufacturing businesses, from small to large, including those not specifically identified as individual machine shops or Fortune 1000 companies.
The company serves a diverse and fragmented customer base, and specific named customer companies (with symbols) are not disclosed in the provided information.
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Martina McIsaac, President & Chief Executive Officer
Martina McIsaac assumed the role of President and Chief Executive Officer of MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. on January 1, 2026. Prior to her appointment at MSC, Ms. McIsaac served as the Region Head and Chief Executive Officer of Hilti, Inc.
Greg Clark, Interim Chief Financial Officer
Greg Clark serves as the Interim Chief Financial Officer for MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. He also holds the position of Vice President of Finance and Corporate Controller. Mr. Clark is a long-standing veteran of the company, having been with MSC for 22 years, and previously served as interim CFO in 2020.
Erik Gershwind, Non-Executive Vice Chair of the Board
Erik Gershwind became the Non-Executive Vice Chair of the Board on January 1, 2026. He previously held the positions of President and Chief Executive Officer of MSC Industrial Supply Co. from 2013 until January 1, 2026. Mr. Gershwind is the grandson of MSC's founder, Sidney Jacobson, and has been with the company since 1996, progressing through various leadership roles including sales, product management, marketing, and eCommerce. He was instrumental in establishing MSC's internet business in 1999. Mr. Gershwind is a graduate of the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and Harvard Law School.
John Reichelt, Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer
John Reichelt serves as the Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer at MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.
Neal Dongre, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Neal Dongre holds the title of Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary for MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.
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Here are the key risks to MSC Industrial Direct (MSM):
- Macroeconomic Softness and Demand Uncertainty: MSC Industrial Direct faces significant risk from the continuation or deepening of soft demand environments across key manufacturing end markets. Industrial production readings continue to contract, impacting the company's performance, particularly in sectors such as automotive, heavy truck, primary metals, fabricated metals, and machinery and equipment. Hesitancy among customers due to factors like tariff uncertainty, potential inflation, and high interest rates contributes to this demand volatility and uncertainty.
- Competitive Landscape and Pricing Pressure: The company operates in a highly competitive and fragmented industrial supply sector, facing competition from national, regional, local, and online distributors. This competitive environment can lead to pricing pressures, especially as larger companies may gain advantages through economies of scale.
- Tariff Uncertainty and Trade Policies: MSC Industrial Direct is exposed to risks associated with changes in trade policies and tariffs. New tariffs, particularly on components from countries like China, can increase product costs and affect market access, introducing cost volatility for the company.
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The clear emerging threat for MSC Industrial Direct is the aggressive expansion of large e-commerce platforms, particularly Amazon Business, into the B2B industrial supply and MRO distribution market. These platforms offer a vast array of products, competitive pricing, sophisticated logistics, and a highly convenient purchasing experience, directly challenging MSC's established distribution model, e-commerce channels, and inventory management solutions. As more businesses shift their procurement to these large online marketplaces, MSC faces significant pressure on its market share, pricing power, and customer relationships.
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MSC Industrial Direct (symbol: MSM) operates in the significant markets of metalworking and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products and services across North America and the United Kingdom.
The addressable markets for MSC Industrial Direct's main products and services are as follows:
Maintenance, Repair, and Operations (MRO) Products and Services
- Global: The global MRO distribution market was estimated at approximately USD 691.90 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around USD 887.11 billion by 2034.
- North America: The North America MRO distribution market is anticipated to reach USD 188.48 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6% from 2025 to 2030. Additionally, the North American MRO market is expected to grow by USD 29.6 billion with a CAGR of 2.2% between 2024 and 2029.
- United States: The U.S. Maintenance, Repair, and Operations market was valued at USD 93.17 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 102.86 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 1.66% during the forecast period (2026-2031).
- Canada: The Canada maintenance, repair & overhaul distribution market size reached USD 14.67 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 20.82 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 3.77% during 2026-2034.
- Mexico: The Mexico maintenance, repair and operations market size reached USD 8.4 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 10.2 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 1.90% during 2025-2033.
- United Kingdom: The UK Aircraft Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul (MRO) Market is projected to grow from USD 45.2 billion in 2025 to USD 78.6 billion by 2032, registering a CAGR of 8.0% during the forecast period.
Metalworking Products and Services
- Global: The global metalworking market was valued at USD 12.02 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 15.43 billion by 2032. The global metalworking fluids market was valued at USD 13.6 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 25.7 billion by 2035.
- United States: The U.S. metalworking machinery manufacturing industry had a market value of USD 33.8 billion in 2024. The U.S. metalworking machinery industry was valued at USD 14.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to surpass USD 21.4 billion by 2032.
- North America (Fabricated Metal Products): The North American metal fabrication market is estimated at USD 71.36 billion in 2026, growing from USD 68.22 billion in 2025, with projections showing USD 89.34 billion by 2031.
- Canada (Metalworking Machinery Manufacturing): The market size of the Metalworking Machinery Manufacturing in Canada is $6.7 billion in 2026. The Canada Metal Fabrication Equipment Market is expected to grow from USD 1.09 billion in 2025 to USD 1.15 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 1.47 billion by 2031 at a 5.06% CAGR over 2026-2031.
- Mexico (Metalworking): The Mexico metal fabrication market size reached USD 1,102.50 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1,558.37 million by 2033. The Mexico metal cutting machine tools market was valued at USD 1617.14 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 2511.37 million by 2035. The Mexico metal cutting tools market size reached USD 78.8 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 125.1 million by 2034.
- United Kingdom (Metal Fabrication): The UK Metal Fabrication Market was valued at USD 8.65 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 13.72 billion by 2031.
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MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives and market factors:
- Strategic Price Increases: The company continues to implement price increases, particularly within its metalworking segment. For example, in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, sales growth was notably influenced by a 4.2% price increase, contributing to a 4% year-over-year sales increase. MSC Industrial Direct anticipates continued benefits from price realization, supporting its target of approximately 20% adjusted incremental operating margins for the full fiscal year under a mid-single-digit growth scenario.
- Growth and Re-engagement with Core Customers: A key focus for MSC Industrial Direct is to reconnect and expand its relationships with core customers. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, core customer growth was up 6% year-over-year, surpassing the overall company sales growth for two consecutive quarters. This growth is being supported by enhanced e-commerce marketing and sales optimization efforts, and the company expects this segment to outperform others in the coming two to three years due to higher margins and lower support costs.
- Expansion of High-Touch Solutions (Vending and Implant Programs): MSC Industrial Direct is actively expanding its high-touch solutions, which include industrial vending and implant programs. In Q1 FY2026, the installed vending machine base increased by 9% year-over-year, and daily sales from implant program customers grew by 13%, both exceeding the company's total sales growth. These solutions, critical for inventory management and operational efficiency for customers, are expected to provide incremental growth.
- E-commerce Enhancements and Digital Transformation: The company is making significant investments in its e-commerce platform, mscdirect.com, which already accounts for over 60% of its revenue. Planned upgrades for fiscal year 2025 aim to improve the user experience and bolster marketing efforts. This ongoing digital transformation is a key element of MSC Industrial Direct's growth strategy.
- Strategic Acquisitions ("Bolt-on M&A"): MSC Industrial Direct is pursuing a "bolt-on M&A" strategy to strategically expand its geographic footprint and acquire specialized capabilities. For instance, in 2024, the company completed three acquisitions, including ApTex, Premier Tool Grinding, and KAR Industrial Inc., which specifically enhanced its metalworking presence in Canada. These targeted acquisitions are designed to access new customer segments and deepen expertise.
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Share Repurchases
- MSC Industrial Direct authorized a share repurchase program on October 20, 2021. Since this authorization, the company completed repurchases of 3,686,577 shares, totaling US$332.57 million, which represented 6.6% of its shares.
- In fiscal year 2025, MSC Industrial Direct returned approximately $229 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, including the repurchase of approximately 496,000 shares.
- During the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ended November 30, 2025), the company repurchased 100,000 shares for US$8.59 million.
Share Issuance
- While there are minor fluctuations, the number of shares outstanding has remained relatively stable, with a slight decline of 0.97% in 2025 from 2024, after small increases in 2024 and 2023.
Outbound Investments
- MSC Industrial Direct has engaged in recent acquisitions which contributed to net sales and influenced gross margin and operating expenses in fiscal year 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- For the full fiscal year 2025, MSC Industrial Direct anticipated capital expenditures (including cloud computing) to be in the range of $100 million to $110 million.
- The company's capital expenditures in fiscal Q1 2025 were $20 million, and in fiscal Q2 2025, they were $30 million.
- These investments are primarily focused on digital initiatives, advanced analytics, digital upgrades, and expanding its solutions footprint, such as vending and implant programs.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 146.10 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.6 |
| Rev LTM | 4,336 |
| Op Inc LTM | 424 |
| FCF LTM | 327 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 358 |
| CFO LTM | 384 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 419 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 8.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.6 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 22.2 |
| P/EBIT | 22.6 |
| P/E | 31.5 |
| P/CFO | 24.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 32.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 31.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 41.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 82.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 18.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 22.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 16.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $118.51 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 6.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/15/1995 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $106.07 | $91.74 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 11.7% | 29.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.7% | 26.9% |
| Downside Capture | 42.93 | 52.07 |
| Upside Capture | 134.22 | 85.00 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 42.5% | 32.0% |
MSM Betas & Captures as of 5/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.63 | 1.44 | 0.97 | 0.78 | 0.77 | 0.83 |
| Up Beta | 1.06 | 1.36 | 1.01 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.97 |
| Down Beta | 1.14 | 0.45 | 1.01 | 0.64 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| Up Capture | 172% | 145% | 109% | 91% | 77% | 49% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 29 | 65 | 128 | 385 |
| Down Capture | 227% | 201% | 77% | 57% | 70% | 94% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 33 | 58 | 121 | 364 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MSM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSM | 51.5% | 26.8% | 1.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 28.7% | 16.2% | 1.38 | 52.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | 32.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 15.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | -7.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 32.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.5% | -1.08 | 2.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MSM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSM | 9.4% | 24.8% | 0.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.5% | 17.5% | 0.61 | 66.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 52.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 9.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 12.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 48.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 14.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MSM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSM | 9.5% | 26.7% | 0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.2% | 20.0% | 0.62 | 64.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 53.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 19.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 43.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 5.8% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/1/2026 | 0.2% | 4.6% | 11.9% |
| 1/7/2026 | -4.5% | -0.9% | 13.0% |
| 10/23/2025 | 3.1% | -3.3% | -3.1% |
| 7/1/2025 | 6.2% | 7.7% | 2.8% |
| 4/3/2025 | -5.2% | -4.0% | -0.9% |
| 1/8/2025 | 3.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| 10/24/2024 | -3.8% | 1.5% | 5.1% |
| 7/2/2024 | 2.3% | -2.1% | 14.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 19 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 2.3% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -3.0% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 6.2% | 10.9% | 33.1% |
| Max Negative | -7.5% | -10.2% | -5.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/1/2026 | 0.2% | 4.6% | 11.9% |
| 1/7/2026 | -4.5% | -0.9% | 13.0% |
| 10/23/2025 | 3.1% | -3.3% | -3.1% |
| 7/1/2025 | 6.2% | 7.7% | 2.8% |
| 4/3/2025 | -5.2% | -4.0% | -0.9% |
| 1/8/2025 | 3.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| 10/24/2024 | -3.8% | 1.5% | 5.1% |
| 7/2/2024 | 2.3% | -2.1% | 14.9% |
| 3/28/2024 | -2.5% | -4.0% | -5.5% |
| 1/9/2024 | -3.1% | 0.3% | 2.4% |
| 10/25/2023 | -3.0% | -0.7% | 4.3% |
| 6/29/2023 | -1.7% | -1.6% | 5.0% |
| 4/4/2023 | -0.9% | 3.0% | 8.6% |
| 1/5/2023 | -5.5% | 0.6% | 10.1% |
| 10/20/2022 | -0.9% | 3.9% | 8.8% |
| 6/29/2022 | 2.4% | 1.1% | 11.1% |
| 3/30/2022 | 3.9% | 1.9% | 3.9% |
| 12/22/2021 | -0.4% | 1.4% | -0.7% |
| 10/20/2021 | -2.4% | -4.7% | 0.3% |
| 7/7/2021 | 0.7% | -0.9% | -4.7% |
| 4/7/2021 | -5.4% | -3.0% | 2.0% |
| 1/6/2021 | 1.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| 10/27/2020 | 2.2% | 10.9% | 33.1% |
| 9/10/2020 | 0.4% | 2.8% | 4.2% |
| 7/8/2020 | -7.5% | -10.2% | -5.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 19 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 2.3% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -3.0% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 6.2% | 10.9% | 33.1% |
| Max Negative | -7.5% | -10.2% | -5.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 02/28/2026 | 04/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 01/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2025 | 07/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 04/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 01/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2024 | 07/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 01/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 04/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 01/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 10/20/2022 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2022 | 06/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 02/28/2026 | 04/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 01/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2025 | 07/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 04/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 01/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2024 | 07/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 01/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 04/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 01/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 10/20/2022 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2022 | 06/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2022 | 03/30/2022 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2021 | 12/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2021 | 10/20/2021 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2021 | 07/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2021 | 04/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2020 | 01/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2020 | 10/27/2020 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2020 | 07/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2020 | 04/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2019 | 01/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2019 | 10/24/2019 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2019 | 07/10/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 4/1/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 ADS Growth | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 33.3% | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 4.5% for Q2 2026 |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 31.6% | 2.4% | Raised | Guidance: 7.6% for Q2 2026 |
| 2026 Depreciation and amortization expense | 95.00 Mil | 97.50 Mil | 100.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 97.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Interest and other expense | 35.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 35.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 100.00 Mil | 105.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 105.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow conversion | 0.9 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.9 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Tax rate | 24.5% | 25.0% | 25.5% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 25.0% for 2026 |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 1/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 ADS Growth (YoY) | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | Higher New | |||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | Lower New | |||
| 2026 Depreciation and amortization expense | 95.00 Mil | 97.50 Mil | 100.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 97.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Interest and other expense | 35.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 35.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 100.00 Mil | 105.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 105.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow conversion | 0.9 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.9 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Tax rate | 24.5% | 25.0% | 25.5% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 25.0% for 2026 |
Insider Activity
Updated 4/26/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seseri, Rudina | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 86.83 | 1,800 | 156,294 | 528,795 | Form | |
| 2 | Peller, Philip | Direct | Buy | 11172025 | 90.14 | 6,666 | 600,873 | 859,665 | Form | |
| 3 | Jacobson, Mitchell | Direct | Buy | 11032025 | 84.43 | 51,954 | 4,386,290 | 194,630,093 | Form | |
| 4 | Jacobson, Mitchell | Direct | Buy | 11032025 | 84.76 | 34,073 | 2,888,167 | 191,004,710 | Form | |
| 5 | Jacobson, Mitchell | Direct | Buy | 11032025 | 84.92 | 95,779 | 8,133,974 | 188,472,296 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seseri, Rudina | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 86.83 | 1,800 | 156,294 | 528,795 | Form | |
| 2 | Peller, Philip | Direct | Buy | 11172025 | 90.14 | 6,666 | 600,873 | 859,665 | Form | |
| 3 | Jacobson, Mitchell | Direct | Buy | 11032025 | 84.43 | 51,954 | 4,386,290 | 194,630,093 | Form | |
| 4 | Jacobson, Mitchell | Direct | Buy | 11032025 | 84.76 | 34,073 | 2,888,167 | 191,004,710 | Form | |
| 5 | Jacobson, Mitchell | Direct | Buy | 11032025 | 84.92 | 95,779 | 8,133,974 | 188,472,296 | Form | |
| 6 | Shacklett, Kimberly | SVP, Sales & Customer Success | Direct | Sell | 7112025 | 92.00 | 2,130 | 195,960 | 1,348,444 | Form |
| 7 | Shacklett, Kimberly | SVP, Sales & Customer Success | Direct | Sell | 7102025 | 90.60 | 2,129 | 192,887 | 1,327,924 | Form |
| 8 | Peller, Philip | Direct | Sell | 7072025 | 90.00 | 2,000 | 180,000 | 258,390 | Form | |
| 9 | Gershwind, Erik | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 7072025 | 89.39 | 2,000 | 178,779 | 137,385,697 | Form |
| 10 | Jacobson, Mitchell | Direct | Buy | 4092025 | 69.77 | 27,642 | 1,928,582 | 136,171,853 | Form | |
| 11 | Jacobson, Mitchell | Direct | Buy | 4092025 | 69.73 | 131,551 | 9,172,671 | 134,160,740 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Trading Companies & Distributors Resources |
| Modern Distribution Management (MDM) |
| Industrial Distribution |
| Supply Chain Digital |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 6/19/2026