MSC Industrial Direct (MSM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.815 | Market Cap: $4.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.815Market Cap: $4.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Trading Companies & Distributors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.9% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Factory Automation, Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Factory Automation, Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MSM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the -7.3% stock movement of MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Gross Margin Pressure and Operating Margin Contraction: Despite beating revenue and adjusted earnings per share estimates for its fiscal fourth quarter ending August 31, 2025, MSC Industrial Direct reported a decline in its gross margin, attributed to "tariff-driven purchase cost escalation." The adjusted operating margin also decreased year-over-year.
2. Slowest Revenue Growth Among Competitors: Investors showed concern that MSC Industrial Direct exhibited the slowest revenue growth within its peer group of maintenance and repair distributors, despite the company's overall sales growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MSM Return | 25% | 3% | 1% | 29% | -23% | 20% | 54% |
| Peers Return | 11% | 24% | -0% | 36% | 42% | 17% | 211% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MSM Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 42% | 67% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 50% | 35% | 48% | 57% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MSM Max Drawdown | -36% | -7% | -12% | -6% | -25% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -4% | -17% | -5% | -4% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FAST, GWW, DXPE, URI, FERG. See MSM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MSM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 255 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -52.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 397 days | 1480 days |
Compare to FAST, GWW, DXPE, URI, FERG
In The Past
MSC Industrial Direct's stock fell -24.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/14/2021. A -24.7% loss requires a 32.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MSM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 03312020 | MSM | MSC Industrial Direct | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.2% | 78.5% | -1.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 03312020 | MSM | MSC Industrial Direct | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.2% | 78.5% | -1.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MSC Industrial Direct
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 175.94 |
| Mkt Cap | 46.9 |
| Rev LTM | 11,992 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,055 |
| FCF LTM | 708 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 758 |
| CFO LTM | 1,559 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,660 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 46.9 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 17.1 |
| P/E | 25.0 |
| P/CFO | 21.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 72.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 10232025 | 10-K 8/30/2025 |
| 5312025 | 7012025 | 10-Q 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 4032025 | 10-Q 3/1/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1082025 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10242024 | 10-K 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 7022024 | 10-Q 6/1/2024 |
| 2292024 | 3282024 | 10-Q 3/2/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1092024 | 10-Q 12/2/2023 |
| 8312023 | 10252023 | 10-K 9/2/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6292023 | 10-Q 6/3/2023 |
| 2282023 | 4042023 | 10-Q 3/4/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1052023 | 10-Q 12/3/2022 |
| 8312022 | 10202022 | 10-K 9/3/2022 |
| 5312022 | 6292022 | 10-Q 5/28/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3302022 | 10-Q 2/26/2022 |
| 11302021 | 12222021 | 10-Q 11/27/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |