Tearsheet

MSC Industrial Direct (MSM)


Market Price (12/21/2025): $86.36 | Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors

MSC Industrial Direct (MSM)


Market Price (12/21/2025): $86.36
Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.0%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.9%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
  Key risks
MSM key risks include [1] soft demand in its key manufacturing markets leading to declines in net sales and [2] operational inefficiencies and challenges executing strategic initiatives, Show more.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Factory Automation, Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.0%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Factory Automation, Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.9%
5 Key risks
MSM key risks include [1] soft demand in its key manufacturing markets leading to declines in net sales and [2] operational inefficiencies and challenges executing strategic initiatives, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MSM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the approximate -3.3% stock movement of MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) from August 31, 2025, to December 21, 2025:

1. Mixed Fiscal 2025 Results and Outlook. While MSC Industrial Direct reported a modest increase in fiscal year 2025's fourth-quarter net sales and adjusted earnings per share (EPS), the full fiscal year, which ended August 30, 2025, saw a 1.3% year-over-year decline in net sales and a significant 21.8% drop in adjusted diluted EPS. This broader annual underperformance, despite some quarterly positives reported on October 23, 2025, likely contributed to a cautious investor outlook, potentially dampening post-earnings enthusiasm.

2. Analyst "Hold" Consensus and Modest Upside. Analysts maintained a "Hold" consensus rating for MSM, with average 12-month price targets suggesting only a modest upside from its trading levels in December 2025. This lukewarm sentiment from the analyst community following the earnings report and throughout the period would not have provided strong momentum for the stock to rise, potentially allowing other concerns to lead to a slight decline.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MSM Return25%3%1%29%-23%20%54%
Peers Return19%26%-5%44%38%17%234%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MSM Win Rate50%58%42%67%33%58% 
Peers Win Rate52%62%43%60%63%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MSM Max Drawdown-36%-7%-12%-6%-25%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-45%-8%-23%-6%-11%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GWW, FAST, AIT, DXPE, GIC. See MSM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMSMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-24.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven255 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven232 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-37.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-52.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven109.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven397 days1,480 days

Compare to GWW, FAST, DXPE, URI, FERG


In The Past

MSC Industrial Direct's stock fell -24.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/14/2021. A -24.7% loss requires a 32.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About MSC Industrial Direct (MSM)

Better Bets than MSC Industrial Direct (MSM)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MSM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.0%18.0%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.6%2.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
3.6%3.6%-0.4%
MSM_3312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312020MSMMSC Industrial DirectDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.2%78.5%-1.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.0%18.0%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.6%2.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
3.6%3.6%-0.4%
MSM_3312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312020MSMMSC Industrial DirectDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.2%78.5%-1.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MSC Industrial Direct

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MSMGWWFASTAITDXPEGICMedian
NameMSC Indu.W.W. Gra.Fastenal Applied .DXP Ente.Global I. 
Mkt Price86.381,025.0242.35262.41111.4629.6898.92
Mkt Cap4.849.048.69.91.71.17.4
Rev LTM3,77017,7507,9984,6641,9601,3364,217
Op Inc LTM3132,4941,61651416992413
FCF LTM2411,2329654554271348
FCF 3Y Avg3861,5101,0694076478397
CFO LTM3342,0481,2104848974409
CFO 3Y Avg4812,0411,2794349082458

Growth & Margins

MSMGWWFASTAITDXPEGICMedian
NameMSC Indu.W.W. Gra.Fastenal Applied .DXP Ente.Global I. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.3%4.8%6.9%4.0%12.8%0.2%4.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.9%6.3%5.5%5.5%13.0%4.7%5.5%
Rev Chg Q2.7%6.1%11.7%9.2%8.6%3.3%7.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.7%1.5%2.9%2.2%2.1%0.8%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM8.3%14.1%20.2%11.0%8.6%6.9%9.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.4%14.9%20.4%11.0%8.1%7.0%10.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%-1.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.3%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM8.9%11.5%15.1%10.4%4.5%5.5%9.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.4%12.0%16.9%9.6%5.0%6.5%10.8%
FCF/Rev LTM6.4%6.9%12.1%9.8%2.2%5.3%6.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.9%8.9%14.2%9.0%3.6%6.2%8.9%

Valuation

MSMGWWFASTAITDXPEGICMedian
NameMSC Indu.W.W. Gra.Fastenal Applied .DXP Ente.Global I. 
Mkt Cap4.849.048.69.91.71.17.4
P/S1.32.86.12.10.90.91.7
P/EBIT16.719.530.018.510.112.417.6
P/E24.228.339.624.720.116.724.4
P/CFO14.423.940.220.519.715.520.1
Total Yield4.1%4.0%4.5%4.4%5.0%9.5%4.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.5%2.0%0.4%0.0%3.5%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.4%3.5%2.7%5.1%7.8%5.9%5.5%
D/E0.10.10.00.10.40.10.1
Net D/E0.10.00.00.00.30.00.0

Returns

MSMGWWFASTAITDXPEGICMedian
NameMSC Indu.W.W. Gra.Fastenal Applied .DXP Ente.Global I. 
1M Rtn3.4%10.8%8.2%8.2%28.2%11.2%9.5%
3M Rtn-4.1%4.0%-10.5%0.9%-4.0%-16.9%-4.1%
6M Rtn8.6%-0.7%4.5%15.9%36.1%14.0%11.3%
12M Rtn17.3%-5.4%15.6%9.9%41.3%22.4%16.5%
3Y Rtn16.2%85.6%90.5%111.3%305.8%38.5%88.1%
1M Excs Rtn-1.0%8.2%4.2%4.7%26.2%8.1%6.4%
3M Excs Rtn-6.1%2.8%-11.8%-3.1%-6.4%-20.5%-6.2%
6M Excs Rtn-5.8%-14.2%-9.9%0.1%19.6%-1.7%-3.7%
12M Excs Rtn-2.2%-20.6%-1.5%-9.0%27.2%4.9%-1.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-55.2%11.8%13.1%39.0%240.4%-40.4%12.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2025202420232022
Distributor of metalworking, maintenance, repair and operations products and services, Class C4,0093,6923,2433,192
Total4,0093,6923,2433,192


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,609,009
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520254.0%
Average Daily Volume621,837
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.80
Basic Shares Quantity55,739,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/20253.1%-3.3%-3.1%
7/1/20256.2%7.7%2.8%
4/3/2025-5.2%-4.0%-0.9%
1/8/20253.5%1.3%1.5%
10/24/2024-3.8%1.5%5.1%
7/2/20242.3%-2.1%14.9%
3/28/2024-2.5%-4.0%-5.5%
1/9/2024-3.1%0.3%2.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111318
# Negative12105
Median Positive2.4%1.9%4.1%
Median Negative-3.1%-3.1%-4.7%
Max Positive6.2%10.9%33.1%
Max Negative-7.5%-10.2%-5.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
83120251023202510-K 8/30/2025
5312025701202510-Q 5/31/2025
2282025403202510-Q 3/1/2025
11302024108202510-Q 11/30/2024
83120241024202410-K 8/31/2024
5312024702202410-Q 6/1/2024
2292024328202410-Q 3/2/2024
11302023109202410-Q 12/2/2023
83120231025202310-K 9/2/2023
5312023629202310-Q 6/3/2023
2282023404202310-Q 3/4/2023
11302022105202310-Q 12/3/2022
83120221020202210-K 9/3/2022
5312022629202210-Q 5/28/2022
2282022330202210-Q 2/26/2022
113020211222202110-Q 11/27/2021