Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 3.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 9.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53%
Key risks
NBTB key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on the economically challenged Upstate New York market and [2] margin pressure from increased operating expenses tied to the Evans Bancorp acquisition and digital banking investments.
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 3.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 9.2%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53%
6 Key risks
NBTB key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on the economically challenged Upstate New York market and [2] margin pressure from increased operating expenses tied to the Evans Bancorp acquisition and digital banking investments.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NBTB Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points for NBT Bancorp's (NBTB) stock movement during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report. NBT Bancorp announced record net income of $54.5 million, or $1.03 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2025, a significant increase from $0.80 per share in the same period of 2024. This positive earnings report was released in late October 2025.

2. Thirteenth Consecutive Annual Dividend Increase. The company's board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.37 per share, an 8.8% increase over the prior year, making it the thirteenth consecutive year of annual dividend increases. The ex-dividend date for this payment was December 1, 2025, with payment on December 15, 2025, reflecting a consistent commitment to shareholder returns.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NBTB Return-18%24%16%-0%18%-5%31%
Peers Return-17%37%-8%2%16%23%52%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NBTB Win Rate42%67%42%50%58%42% 
Peers Win Rate50%73%48%47%57%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NBTB Max Drawdown-34%-1%-8%-32%-20%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-54%-0%-19%-33%-16%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MTB, KEY, FNB, WBS, VLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNBTBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven446 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-36.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven56.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven126 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-25.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,804 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-53.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven116.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2,786 days1,480 days

Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU


In The Past

NBT Bancorp's stock fell -38.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/10/2022. A -38.7% loss requires a 63.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NBT Bancorp (NBTB)

Better Bets than NBT Bancorp (NBTB)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NBTB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NBT Bancorp

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NBTBMTBKEYFNBWBSVLYMedian
NameNBT Banc.M&T Bank KeyCorp F N B Webster .Valley N. 
Mkt Price44.21206.1220.8017.5864.0011.9032.51
Mkt Cap2.332.122.96.39.86.78.2
Rev LTM6589,5476,1421,6802,8101,9592,385
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM2023,9843,1325551,5865391,070
FCF 3Y Avg1703,4342,1134251,093424759
CFO LTM2184,1563,2176801,6325391,156
CFO 3Y Avg1823,6502,2145321,133424832

Growth & Margins

NBTBMTBKEYFNBWBSVLYMedian
NameNBT Banc.M&T Bank KeyCorp F N B Webster .Valley N. 
Rev Chg LTM16.7%4.1%20.7%7.6%9.6%7.7%8.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.2%11.4%-3.0%8.7%11.5%5.3%9.0%
Rev Chg Q26.2%6.9%186.9%10.9%12.5%10.2%11.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.2%1.7%24.3%2.8%3.0%2.5%2.9%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM33.2%43.5%52.4%40.5%58.1%27.5%42.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg31.2%38.4%34.8%32.4%41.5%21.6%33.6%
FCF/Rev LTM30.8%41.7%51.0%33.0%56.4%27.5%37.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg29.2%36.2%33.1%25.8%40.0%21.6%31.2%

Valuation

NBTBMTBKEYFNBWBSVLYMedian
NameNBT Banc.M&T Bank KeyCorp F N B Webster .Valley N. 
Mkt Cap2.332.122.96.39.86.78.2
P/S3.33.23.33.53.53.03.3
P/EBIT-------
P/E14.611.119.111.510.611.511.5
P/CFO10.07.46.48.56.011.08.0
Total Yield10.0%11.9%5.2%11.7%12.2%12.8%11.8%
Dividend Yield3.2%2.9%0.0%3.0%2.8%4.1%3.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.0%13.2%15.9%9.0%-8.7%9.0%
D/E0.10.50.60.5-0.60.5
Net D/E-0.3-0.7-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.3

Returns

NBTBMTBKEYFNBWBSVLYMedian
NameNBT Banc.M&T Bank KeyCorp F N B Webster .Valley N. 
1M Rtn12.5%14.7%22.8%15.1%17.4%15.2%15.1%
3M Rtn4.3%4.6%12.4%9.0%6.3%12.0%7.6%
6M Rtn12.5%15.2%32.8%29.5%25.9%41.6%27.7%
12M Rtn-10.2%8.3%22.5%17.7%14.1%25.5%15.9%
3Y Rtn16.9%63.0%47.9%54.8%59.1%24.1%51.3%
1M Excs Rtn11.8%14.0%22.1%14.4%16.7%14.4%14.4%
3M Excs Rtn-0.4%2.3%8.6%5.6%2.1%6.9%3.9%
6M Excs Rtn0.2%2.8%20.4%17.1%13.5%29.2%15.3%
12M Excs Rtn-22.7%-4.5%9.2%2.9%0.6%11.8%1.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-53.5%-17.8%-28.5%-19.9%-19.2%-50.8%-24.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banking465    
Retirement Plan Administration51    
All Other5    
Single Segment 515476459451
Total520515476459451


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banking104    
Retirement Plan Administration12    
All Other3    
Total119    


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banking14,906    
Retirement Plan Administration37    
All Other-1,633    
Total13,309    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,064,973
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520256.8%
Average Daily Volume231,981
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.59
Basic Shares Quantity52,426,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/27/20251.4%0.2%4.0%
7/28/20253.8%-1.2%8.2%
4/24/20250.6%0.4%-1.9%
1/27/2025-5.4%-4.2%-3.7%
10/28/20240.2%-3.0%10.9%
7/22/20248.1%5.8%0.2%
4/22/20243.5%1.4%10.3%
1/23/2024-3.3%-5.4%-12.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111216
# Negative13128
Median Positive1.3%1.3%7.4%
Median Negative-2.0%-3.2%-4.3%
Max Positive8.1%10.1%18.3%
Max Negative-11.2%-9.7%-12.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021