Tearsheet

Kinsale Capital (KNSL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $374.37 | Market Cap: $8.7 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Kinsale Capital (KNSL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $374.37
Market Cap: $8.7 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%
  
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.8%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Transformation in Insurance, and Specialty & Complex Risk Management. Themes include AI & Data Analytics for Underwriting, and Excess & Surplus Lines Insurance.
  
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.8%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Transformation in Insurance, and Specialty & Complex Risk Management. Themes include AI & Data Analytics for Underwriting, and Excess & Surplus Lines Insurance.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KNSL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points highlighting why Kinsale Capital (KNSL) stock moved by approximately -18.1% during the period from late August 2025 to early December 2025: 1. Deteriorating Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Adjustments. Several prominent financial institutions revised their outlook on Kinsale Capital during this period. JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its price target from $460.00 to $450.00 and issued a "neutral" rating on October 27, 2025. Similarly, Morgan Stanley decreased its price objective from $490.00 to $480.00 in mid-November 2025, and TD Cowen also reduced its target price while maintaining a "hold" rating in early November 2025. These adjustments collectively signaled a less optimistic view from analysts.

2. Negative Technical Indicators and Market Momentum. Technical analysis throughout the period indicated a bearish trend for KNSL. As of December 3, 2025, the stock exhibited "sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages," suggesting a strong downtrend. Reports highlighted that "sellers are extremely active" and "selling momentum is picking up," contributing to sustained downward pressure on the stock price.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KNSL Return97%19%10%28%39%-19%274%
Peers Return11%23%5%18%14%-5%82%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KNSL Win Rate67%50%58%58%67%40% 
Peers Win Rate67%58%47%57%58%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KNSL Max Drawdown-17%-23%-23%-2%0%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-6%-15%-4%-9%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VOYA, FAF, RLI, SIGI, PGR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventKNSLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven39.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven195 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-36.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven56.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven53 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-20.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven71 days120 days

Compare to VOYA, FAF, RLI, SIGI, PGR


In The Past

Kinsale Capital's stock fell -28.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/13/2021. A -28.1% loss requires a 39.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Kinsale Capital (KNSL)

Better Bets than Kinsale Capital (KNSL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KNSL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
KNSL_10312023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312023KNSLKinsale CapitalQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
8.9%28.9%-1.4%
KNSL_8312022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312022KNSLKinsale CapitalQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
25.3%57.5%-4.3%
KNSL_10312020_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312020KNSLKinsale CapitalQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-7.1%0.1%-17.7%
KNSL_3312020_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%03312020KNSLKinsale CapitalQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
78.4%58.0%-4.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
KNSL_10312023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312023KNSLKinsale CapitalQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
8.9%28.9%-1.4%
KNSL_8312022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312022KNSLKinsale CapitalQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
25.3%57.5%-4.3%
KNSL_10312020_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312020KNSLKinsale CapitalQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-7.1%0.1%-17.7%
KNSL_3312020_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%03312020KNSLKinsale CapitalQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
78.4%58.0%-4.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Kinsale Capital

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KNSLVOYAFAFRLISIGIPGRMedian
NameKinsale .Voya Fin.First Am.RLI Selectiv.Progress. 
Mkt Price374.4170.7764.7762.6578.05227.1874.41
Mkt Cap8.76.86.75.84.7133.26.7
Rev LTM1,8037,9047,0801,8565,22882,3766,154
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM9613767045811,15316,472833
FCF 3Y Avg88870946147898212,350798
CFO LTM1,0153769065861,18916,800961
CFO 3Y Avg9137096934831,01112,634811

Growth & Margins

KNSLVOYAFAFRLISIGIPGRMedian
NameKinsale .Voya Fin.First Am.RLI Selectiv.Progress. 
Rev Chg LTM18.1%2.5%20.7%5.2%10.9%21.5%14.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg32.4%11.5%-3.3%4.7%14.6%20.0%13.0%
Rev Chg Q19.0%7.5%40.7%8.4%9.3%21.3%14.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.6%1.9%8.8%2.2%2.3%4.9%3.4%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM56.3%4.8%12.8%31.6%22.7%20.4%21.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg62.3%9.4%10.7%28.2%21.5%18.0%19.8%
FCF/Rev LTM53.3%4.8%9.9%31.3%22.0%20.0%21.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg60.8%9.4%7.0%27.8%20.9%17.6%19.3%

Valuation

KNSLVOYAFAFRLISIGIPGRMedian
NameKinsale .Voya Fin.First Am.RLI Selectiv.Progress. 
Mkt Cap8.76.86.75.84.7133.26.7
P/S5.50.90.93.20.91.91.4
P/EBIT16.26.88.313.58.811.710.3
P/E20.811.713.717.012.115.014.3
P/CFO9.719.17.310.24.19.39.5
Total Yield5.0%10.9%10.7%9.9%10.1%8.5%10.0%
Dividend Yield0.2%2.4%3.4%4.0%1.8%1.8%2.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.8%9.5%7.2%7.4%17.9%10.3%9.2%
D/E0.00.40.40.00.20.00.1
Net D/E-0.2-3.5-0.0-0.3-0.1-0.0-0.1

Returns

KNSLVOYAFAFRLISIGIPGRMedian
NameKinsale .Voya Fin.First Am.RLI Selectiv.Progress. 
1M Rtn-3.6%-2.6%4.2%10.5%6.0%11.5%5.1%
3M Rtn-17.1%-5.6%0.2%-3.5%-0.9%-7.9%-4.5%
6M Rtn-19.9%9.2%18.2%-13.6%-9.9%-19.4%-11.8%
12M Rtn-25.0%-12.1%-3.7%-24.8%-20.0%-11.7%-16.0%
3Y Rtn24.4%17.2%35.7%4.4%-14.0%76.6%20.8%
1M Excs Rtn-3.5%-2.6%4.3%10.6%6.1%11.6%5.2%
3M Excs Rtn-23.9%-13.6%-6.8%-9.7%-8.5%-14.1%-11.6%
6M Excs Rtn-34.6%-5.5%3.4%-28.3%-24.6%-34.1%-26.5%
12M Excs Rtn-39.8%-26.1%-18.0%-39.4%-35.6%-27.3%-31.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-50.3%-53.8%-36.2%-62.4%-87.3%7.2%-52.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance1,224839   
Total1,224839   


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance308    
Total308    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,458,116
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120252.9%
Average Daily Volume211,592
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.89
Basic Shares Quantity23,159,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021