M&T Bank (MTB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $196.24 | Market Cap: $30.5 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
M&T Bank (MTB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $196.24Market Cap: $30.5 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 28% | Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 8.2% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 8.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MTB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. M&T Bank reported a slight miss on non-GAAP earnings per share and total revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024, falling short of some market expectations. The bank's non-GAAP EPS was $3.38, missing estimates by $0.02, and total revenue of $2.32 billion was $30 million below projections.
2. The company experienced a narrowing of its net interest margin (NIM) in the fourth quarter of 2024. The net interest margin decreased to 3.58% in Q4 2024 from 3.62% in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a lower contribution of interest-free funds.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MTB Return | -22% | 24% | -3% | -2% | 42% | 5% | 37% |
| Peers Return | -18% | 27% | -15% | 10% | 28% | 21% | 50% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MTB Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 47% | 35% | 42% | 48% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MTB Max Drawdown | -48% | -0% | -6% | -23% | -5% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -43% | -3% | -23% | -16% | -4% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BAC, WFC, C, USB, AVBC. See MTB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MTB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 356 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 655 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2124 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 309.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1922 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BAC, WFC, C, USB, AVBC
In The Past
M&T Bank's stock fell -42.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2022. A -42.8% loss requires a 74.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MTB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 12312024 | MTB | M&T Bank | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 6.6% | 4.7% | -16.1% |
| 10312022 | MTB | M&T Bank | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -26.6% | -30.5% | -32.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 12312024 | MTB | M&T Bank | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 6.6% | 4.7% | -16.1% |
| 10312022 | MTB | M&T Bank | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -26.6% | -30.5% | -32.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for M&T Bank
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Banking | 5,114 | 1,417 | 1,464 | 1,717 | |
| Commercial Banking | 3,067 | 1,127 | 1,141 | 1,118 | |
| Institutional Services and Wealth Management | 1,705 | ||||
| All Other | -243 | 852 | 847 | 1,233 | |
| Business Banking | 643 | 566 | 565 | ||
| Commercial Real Estate | 892 | 882 | 907 | ||
| Discretionary Portfolio | 445 | 485 | 237 | ||
| Residential Mortgage Banking | 616 | 568 | 413 | ||
| Total | 9,643 | 5,992 | 5,955 | 6,192 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Banking | 1,838 | 324 | 365 | 528 | |
| Commercial Banking | 1,039 | 499 | 508 | 520 | |
| Institutional Services and Wealth Management | 620 | ||||
| All Other | -756 | 20 | -523 | 11 | |
| Business Banking | 207 | 159 | 168 | ||
| Commercial Real Estate | 354 | 382 | 486 | ||
| Discretionary Portfolio | 287 | 327 | 144 | ||
| Residential Mortgage Banking | 169 | 134 | 72 | ||
| Total | 2,741 | 1,859 | 1,353 | 1,929 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10272025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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