M&T Bank (MTB)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $195.57 | Market Cap: $30.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
M&T Bank (MTB)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $195.57Market Cap: $30.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.8%, FCF Yield is 13% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -46% | |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -75% | Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 8.2% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.0 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | ||
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 28% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.8%, FCF Yield is 13% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -75% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -46% |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 8.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MTB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the public company M&T Bank (symbol: MTB), for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, the following key points may highlight reasons for a -1.5% stock movement:
1. Multiple Prime Rate Decreases: M&T Bank decreased its prime lending rate twice within the period. The rate was lowered from 7.50% to 7.25% effective September 18, 2025, and then further to 7.00% from 7.25% effective October 30, 2025. These reductions, sometimes noted as "Negative", can suggest a challenging interest rate environment or pressure on the bank's net interest margins, potentially leading to investor caution.
2. Preferred Stock Offering: On October 31, 2025, M&T Bank completed a US$450 million public offering of Depositary Shares representing interests in its newly designated Series K Preferred Stock. While intended to strengthen the bank's capital base, such offerings can sometimes introduce new considerations for common shareholders regarding the capital structure and potential future implications.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MTB Return | -22% | 24% | -3% | -2% | 42% | 7% | 40% |
| Peers Return | -18% | 27% | -15% | 10% | 28% | 25% | 55% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MTB Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 47% | 35% | 42% | 48% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MTB Max Drawdown | -48% | -0% | -6% | -23% | -5% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -43% | -3% | -23% | -16% | -4% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BAC, WFC, C, USB, AVBC. See MTB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MTB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 356 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 655 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2124 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 309.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1922 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BAC, WFC, C, USB, AVBC
In The Past
M&T Bank's stock fell -42.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2022. A -42.8% loss requires a 74.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MTB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| 12312024 | MTB | M&T Bank | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 6.6% | 7.2% | -16.1% |
| 10312022 | MTB | M&T Bank | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -26.6% | -30.5% | -32.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| 12312024 | MTB | M&T Bank | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 6.6% | 7.2% | -16.1% |
| 10312022 | MTB | M&T Bank | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -26.6% | -30.5% | -32.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for M&T Bank
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 72.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 196.2 |
| Rev LTM | 55,357 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 1,988 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 9,172 |
| CFO LTM | 2,076 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,172 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 196.2 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 12.6 |
| P/CFO | 6.3 |
| Total Yield | 9.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | -0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 68.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -15.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Banking | 5,114 | 1,417 | 1,464 | 1,717 | |
| Commercial Banking | 3,067 | 1,127 | 1,141 | 1,118 | |
| Institutional Services and Wealth Management | 1,705 | ||||
| All Other | -243 | 852 | 847 | 1,233 | |
| Business Banking | 643 | 566 | 565 | ||
| Commercial Real Estate | 892 | 882 | 907 | ||
| Discretionary Portfolio | 445 | 485 | 237 | ||
| Residential Mortgage Banking | 616 | 568 | 413 | ||
| Total | 9,643 | 5,992 | 5,955 | 6,192 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Banking | 1,838 | 324 | 365 | 528 | |
| Commercial Banking | 1,039 | 499 | 508 | 520 | |
| Institutional Services and Wealth Management | 620 | ||||
| All Other | -756 | 20 | -523 | 11 | |
| Business Banking | 207 | 159 | 168 | ||
| Commercial Real Estate | 354 | 382 | 486 | ||
| Discretionary Portfolio | 287 | 327 | 144 | ||
| Residential Mortgage Banking | 169 | 134 | 72 | ||
| Total | 2,741 | 1,859 | 1,353 | 1,929 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10272025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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