Tearsheet

NMI (NMIH)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $38.06 | Market Cap: $2.9 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance

NMI (NMIH)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $38.06
Market Cap: $2.9 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.7%, FCF Yield is 13%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
 
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Future of Housing / Residential Real Estate. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Affordable Homeownership Access.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.7%, FCF Yield is 13%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Future of Housing / Residential Real Estate. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Affordable Homeownership Access.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NMIH Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Below are the key points that likely contributed to NMIH's stock movement by -2.9% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025: 1. 1. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss: NMI Holdings reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 4, 2025. The company's actual revenue of $171.56 million fell below analysts' consensus expectations of $177.01 million, which could have negatively impacted investor sentiment despite earnings per share meeting estimates. 2. 2. Increased Insurance Claims and Loss Ratio: During Q3 2025, NMIH saw an increase in insurance claims to $18.6 million, leading to a higher loss ratio of 12.3% compared to 9.0% in the previous quarter. This rise in claims and the elevated loss ratio, while attributed to normal seasonal activity and portfolio seasoning, introduced concerns regarding near-term underwriting variability risk. 3.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NMIH Return-----4%4%
Peers Return4%17%-26%65%42%28%170%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NMIH Win Rate----71%50% 
Peers Win Rate55%63%38%57%50%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NMIH Max Drawdown------11% 
Peers Max Drawdown-53%-19%-34%-11%-18%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ESNT, WD, SNFCA, GHI, FNMA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

NMIH has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4470 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NMI (NMIH)

Better Bets than NMI (NMIH)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NMIH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NMI

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NMIHESNTWDSNFCAGHIFNMAMedian
NameNMI Essent Walker &.Security.Greyston.Federal . 
Mkt Price38.2061.8864.368.79-10.2238.20
Mkt Cap3.06.02.10.20.260.02.6
Rev LTM6921,2901,2363413730,100964
Op Inc LTM--134---134
FCF LTM387837-94948345,614218
FCF 3Y Avg36779822347249,925295
CFO LTM393854-93751345,614222
CFO 3Y Avg37580823749249,925306

Growth & Margins

NMIHESNTWDSNFCAGHIFNMAMedian
NameNMI Essent Walker &.Security.Greyston.Federal . 
Rev Chg LTM8.9%2.1%16.0%5.6%0.2%-1.0%3.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.3%8.2%-2.3%-7.0%-23.9%-1.4%-1.9%
Rev Chg Q7.6%-1.3%15.5%4.2%2,767.0%-1.2%5.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.9%-0.3%3.8%1.1%23.9%-0.3%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM--10.8%---10.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--11.4%---11.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.4%---0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM56.8%66.2%-75.8%15.0%91.6%18.7%37.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg59.7%67.1%26.4%14.5%56.6%33.2%44.9%
FCF/Rev LTM55.9%64.8%-76.8%14.1%91.6%18.7%37.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg58.4%66.4%25.2%13.9%55.5%33.2%44.3%

Valuation

NMIHESNTWDSNFCAGHIFNMAMedian
NameNMI Essent Walker &.Security.Greyston.Federal . 
Mkt Cap3.06.02.10.20.260.02.6
P/S4.34.82.30.76.52.33.3
P/EBIT5.77.220.97.3--7.2
P/E7.88.824.310.828.64.79.8
P/CFO7.57.3-3.04.87.112.67.2
Total Yield12.8%13.3%4.1%9.3%19.0%21.2%13.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.0%0.0%0.0%15.5%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-13.4%11.3%21.6%8.4%207.4%13.4%
D/E0.10.11.10.54.559.50.8
Net D/E-0.0-0.91.00.04.359.30.5

Returns

NMIHESNTWDSNFCAGHIFNMAMedian
NameNMI Essent Walker &.Security.Greyston.Federal . 
1M Rtn3.8%2.1%-19.0%8.5%--9.6%2.1%
3M Rtn-3.6%-1.2%-20.7%4.6%--14.5%-3.6%
6M Rtn-2.7%9.0%-3.3%-5.9%-20.5%-2.7%
12M Rtn-5.0%11.1%-38.9%-30.9%-278.5%-5.0%
3Y Rtn-66.3%-19.6%57.0%-2,171.1%61.6%
1M Excs Rtn3.9%2.1%-18.9%8.6%--9.6%2.1%
3M Excs Rtn-10.1%-7.9%-27.3%-0.6%--22.7%-10.1%
6M Excs Rtn-17.4%-5.7%-18.0%-20.6%-5.8%-17.4%
12M Excs Rtn-18.0%-3.7%-53.0%-43.0%-213.0%-18.0%
3Y Excs Rtn--2.5%-87.8%-18.9%-2,149.9%-10.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment579524486436370
Total579524486436370


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,567,863
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-3.2%
Average Daily Volume480,106
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.27
Basic Shares Quantity77,410,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0EMBLER MICHAEL J 11242025Sell36.9020,000738,0001,699,097Form