Tearsheet

NMI (NMIH)


Market Price (1/20/2026): $37.99 | Market Cap: $2.9 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance

NMI (NMIH)


Market Price (1/20/2026): $37.99
Market Cap: $2.9 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.8%, FCF Yield is 13%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61%
Key risks
NMIH key risks include [1] the need to hold more capital or acquire more expensive reinsurance due to regulatory changes being phased in through 2026, Show more.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Future of Housing / Residential Real Estate. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Affordable Homeownership Access.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.8%, FCF Yield is 13%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Future of Housing / Residential Real Estate. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Affordable Homeownership Access.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61%
5 Key risks
NMIH key risks include [1] the need to hold more capital or acquire more expensive reinsurance due to regulatory changes being phased in through 2026, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NMIH Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 4.3% change in NMIH stock from 10/31/2025 to 1/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 2.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
103120251192026Change
Stock Price ($)36.4338.014.34%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)679.62692.211.85%
Net Income Margin (%)55.57%55.02%-0.99%
P/E Multiple7.527.732.70%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)77.9977.410.74%
Cumulative Contribution4.33%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 1/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NMIH4.3% 
Market (SPY)1.4%19.3%
Sector (XLF)4.0%47.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 1.8% change in NMIH stock from 7/31/2025 to 1/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 1.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
73120251192026Change
Stock Price ($)37.3238.011.85%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)679.62692.211.85%
Net Income Margin (%)55.57%55.02%-0.99%
P/E Multiple7.717.730.25%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)77.9977.410.74%
Cumulative Contribution1.84%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 1/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NMIH1.8% 
Market (SPY)9.7%19.0%
Sector (XLF)4.3%46.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The -1.6% change in NMIH stock from 1/31/2025 to 1/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
13120251192026Change
Stock Price ($)38.6238.01-1.58%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)635.85692.218.86%
Net Income Margin (%)56.20%55.02%-2.10%
P/E Multiple8.607.73-10.14%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)79.5577.412.69%
Cumulative Contribution-1.65%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 1/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NMIH-1.6% 
Market (SPY)15.9%47.5%
Sector (XLF)6.9%60.0%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 1/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NMIH  
Market (SPY)76.5%43.4%
Sector (XLF)55.7%62.3%

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
NMIH Return---10%11%-8%12%
Peers Return17%-26%65%42%34%0%171%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%1%85%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NMIH Win Rate---62%58%0% 
Peers Win Rate63%38%57%50%45%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%100% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NMIH Max Drawdown----5%-11%-11% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-34%-11%-18%-21%-4% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%0% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ESNT, WD, SNFCA, GHI, FNMA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/16/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

NMIH has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4,470 days1,480 days

Compare to ESNT, WD, SNFCA, GHI, FNMA

In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NMI (NMIH)

NMI Holdings, Inc. provides private mortgage guaranty insurance services in the United States. The company offers mortgage insurance services; and outsourced loan review services to mortgage loan originators. It serves national and regional mortgage banks, money center banks, credit unions, community banks, builder-owned mortgage lenders, internet-sourced lenders, and other non-bank lenders. NMI Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for NMI (NMIH):

  1. It's like GEICO or Progressive, but for mortgage loans instead of cars, protecting lenders from borrower defaults.
  2. Think of it as the commercial insurance arm of a company like AIG or Chubb, but entirely dedicated to insuring mortgage loans against default.
  3. It serves a purpose similar to a private Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, providing risk mitigation for lenders in the mortgage market through private mortgage insurance.

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  • Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI): Provides insurance coverage to lenders, protecting them against losses from borrower defaults on high loan-to-value mortgages.

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National Mortgage Insurance Corporation (NMIH) is a private mortgage insurance (PMI) provider. Its core business involves providing mortgage insurance policies that protect lenders against financial losses if a borrower defaults on their home loan.

Therefore, NMIH sells primarily to other companies, specifically mortgage lenders.

Due to the nature of the private mortgage insurance industry, NMIH operates through a broad and diverse network of mortgage lenders across the United States. The company typically does not have specific "major customers" that account for a material portion of its revenues, and thus, does not publicly disclose individual customer names. Its business model relies on serving a wide array of mortgage originators rather than concentrating on a few large clients.

NMIH's customer base of lenders can be broadly categorized as:

  • National and Regional Mortgage Lenders: These are large-scale mortgage originators, including major banks and non-bank lenders, that operate across multiple states or significant regions.
  • Community Banks and Credit Unions: Smaller, localized or regionally focused financial institutions that provide mortgage products to their members and customers.
  • Independent Mortgage Companies: Non-depository institutions that specialize exclusively in mortgage origination and often work with a variety of capital sources, including PMI providers.

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  • Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)

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Adam Pollitzer President and Chief Executive Officer

Adam Pollitzer joined National MI in 2017 and was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer in January 2022. Prior to this role, he served as the company's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from 2017 to 2021. Before joining National MI, Mr. Pollitzer was a Managing Director in the corporate and investment banking division of J.P. Morgan Securities, LLC, where he led advisory and capital raising efforts for North American insurance companies. He holds a bachelor's degree in business administration from the Stephen M. Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan.

Aurora Swithenbank Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Aurora Swithenbank was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of National MI, effective May 1, 2024. Before joining National MI, Ms. Swithenbank served as Chief Financial Officer at Vantage Group Holdings Ltd., a Bermuda-based specialty insurance and reinsurance group, where she was responsible for organizing the company's finance department. Prior to Vantage Group, she spent over 20 years at Goldman Sachs, holding various roles, including Partner and Head of Insurance in the Americas Financing Group. Ms. Swithenbank holds a Bachelor's degree from Harvard University.

Bradley M. Shuster Executive Chairman and Chairman of the Board

Bradley M. Shuster has served as Executive Chairman and Chairman of the Board of NMI Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: NMIH) since January 2019. Mr. Shuster founded National MI and previously served as its Chairman and Chief Executive Officer from 2012 to 2018. Before founding National MI, he was a senior executive at The PMI Group, Inc. (NYSE: PMI), where he held the position of Chief Executive Officer of PMI Capital Corporation. Prior to joining PMI in 1995, Mr. Shuster was a partner at Deloitte LLP, where he was partner-in-charge of Deloitte's Northern California Insurance and Mortgage Banking practices. He also serves as an independent director of McGrath RentCorp and WaFd, Inc.

William J. Leatherberry Executive Vice President, Chief Administrative Officer, General Counsel and Secretary

William J. Leatherberry joined National MI in 2014 and serves as Executive Vice President, Chief Administrative Officer, General Counsel, and Secretary. Before his tenure at National MI, Mr. Leatherberry was Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, General Counsel, and Secretary for Century Aluminum, a publicly-traded primary aluminum company. He began his career as a corporate associate with the law firm Jones Day. Mr. Leatherberry holds a B.A. in business management and an M.B.A. from the University of Texas, and a J.D. from Southern Methodist University.

Robert Smith Executive Vice President, Chief Risk Officer

Robert Smith is the Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer of National MI, a position he has held since joining the company in 2012. His previous roles at National MI include Senior Vice President of Pricing and Portfolio Analytics from 2015 to 2018 and Vice President of Pricing and Portfolio Analytics from 2012 to 2015. Prior to joining National MI, Mr. Smith held leadership positions at Washington Mutual and PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. He holds an M.S. degree in engineering and an M.B.A. from Stanford University, and has earned a Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key risks to NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH):
  • Housing Market Slowdown or Correction

    A significant slowdown or correction in the housing market is a primary risk to NMIH. High interest rates can lead to a decrease in new mortgage applications, which in turn reduces new business and slows premium growth for NMIH. Should home sales decline or prices fall, the company could experience higher default rates and an increase in insurance claims. The mortgage insurance industry is inherently cyclical and highly sensitive to overall housing market conditions.
  • Regulatory Changes

    NMIH faces substantial regulatory risks, particularly from potential changes to the Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements (PMIERs) set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). These changes, which are being phased in through September 2026, could necessitate NMIH holding more capital in reserve or acquiring more expensive reinsurance, thereby increasing costs and reducing operational flexibility. Furthermore, any changes in the business practices of Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) or new federal legislation could diminish the market opportunity for private mortgage insurers like NMIH.
  • Increased Claims Due to Credit Risk Concentration or Economic Shocks

    While NMIH has maintained strong credit performance, there is a risk of increased claims stemming from a decline in borrower quality or localized economic shocks, such as natural disasters in specific regions. A broader economic downturn could also lead to higher default rates and larger claims than anticipated. Notably, an increase in paid claims was observed in early 2025, which has been identified as a potential warning sign requiring ongoing monitoring for signs of portfolio stress.

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NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH) operates in the private mortgage insurance market in the United States.

The global private mortgage insurance (PMI) market was estimated at approximately $6.24 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $6.84 billion in 2025. This market is expected to reach $9.71 billion by 2029, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.2%. North America holds the largest share of the global PMI market. The United States is a significant driver of this market's growth.

By the end of 2024, nearly $1.6 trillion in mortgages in the United States carried private mortgage insurance coverage.

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NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas:

  1. Growth in Primary Insurance-in-Force and New Insurance Written (NIW): A consistent expansion of NMIH's insured portfolio, driven by new insurance written, is a primary driver of revenue through earned premiums. The company has reported consistent growth in its primary insurance-in-force, reaching $207.5 billion in Q3 2024, $210.2 billion by year-end 2024, $211.3 billion in Q1 2025, $214.7 billion in Q2 2025, and $218.4 billion in Q3 2025.
  2. Favorable Mortgage Market Conditions: The resilience of the U.S. housing market, along with long-term secular trends and improvements in mortgage rates, is anticipated to sustain new business opportunities for NMIH. Management's guidance is shaped by the expectation that these trends will continue to fuel new insurance originations.
  3. Strategic Customer Acquisition and Differentiation: NMIH emphasizes its commitment to differentiating with its customers and increasing its focus on customer acquisition. This strategy aims to expand its market penetration and secure new mortgage insurance business.
  4. Growth in Investment Income: NMIH's total revenue includes a component from investment income. The company has demonstrated an upward trend in investment income, reporting $23.7 million in Q1 2025, $24.9 million in Q2 2025, and $26.8 million in Q3 2025, which is expected to continue contributing to overall revenue growth.
  5. Effective Risk Management and Reinsurance Agreements: While primarily enhancing funding efficiency and risk coverage, new reinsurance agreements entered into for business originating between 2025 and 2027 support NMIH's capacity to underwrite new business and manage its capital effectively. This robust risk transfer framework allows the company to pursue growth opportunities confidently.

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  1. Share Repurchases
    • On February 6, 2025, NMI Holdings, Inc. announced an additional $250 million share repurchase plan authorized by its Board of Directors, effective through December 31, 2027.
    • This new authorization brought the company's total share repurchase capacity to $330 million as of February 6, 2025.
    • The company repurchased $27.9 million of common stock, retiring 722,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2024, and $23.2 million of common stock in the second quarter of 2025, retiring 628,000 shares.
  2. Share Issuance
    • In June 2020, NMI Holdings, Inc. announced a proposed public offering of 10 million shares of its Class A common stock, with net proceeds intended for general corporate purposes, including potential capital contributions to support subsidiary growth.
    • The number of issued shares increased from 87,902,626 as of December 31, 2024, to 88,321,226 as of March 31, 2025.

Trade Ideas

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Unique Key

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Peer Comparisons for NMI

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Financials

NMIHESNTWDSNFCAGHIFNMAMedian
NameNMI Essent Walker &.Security.Greyston.Federal . 
Mkt Price38.0160.9465.358.88--49.47
Mkt Cap2.95.92.20.2-59.72.9
Rev LTM6921,2901,236342-30,1001,236
Op Inc LTM--134---134
FCF LTM387837-94946-5,614387
FCF 3Y Avg36779822351-9,925367
CFO LTM393854-93750-5,614393
CFO 3Y Avg37580823753-9,925375

Growth & Margins

NMIHESNTWDSNFCAGHIFNMAMedian
NameNMI Essent Walker &.Security.Greyston.Federal . 
Rev Chg LTM8.9%2.1%16.0%3.2%--1.0%3.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.3%8.2%-2.3%-4.5%--1.4%-1.4%
Rev Chg Q7.6%-1.3%15.5%1.1%--1.2%1.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.9%-0.3%3.8%0.3%--0.3%0.3%
Op Mgn LTM--10.8%---10.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--11.4%---11.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.4%---0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM56.8%66.2%-75.8%14.6%-18.7%18.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg59.7%67.1%26.4%15.7%-33.2%33.2%
FCF/Rev LTM55.9%64.8%-76.8%13.6%-18.7%18.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg58.4%66.4%25.2%15.1%-33.2%33.2%

Valuation

NMIHESNTWDSNFCAGHIFNMAMedian
NameNMI Essent Walker &.Security.Greyston.Federal . 
Mkt Cap2.95.92.20.2-59.72.9
P/S4.34.61.80.6-2.02.0
P/EBIT5.76.916.37.7--7.3
P/E7.78.419.011.8-4.08.4
P/CFO7.57.0-2.34.4-10.67.0
Total Yield12.9%13.9%5.3%8.5%-25.1%12.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.1%0.0%0.0%-0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-13.6%-1.0%20.4%-207.4%17.0%
D/E0.10.11.40.6-70.40.6
Net D/E-0.0-1.01.3-0.0-70.2-0.0

Returns

NMIHESNTWDSNFCAGHIFNMAMedian
NameNMI Essent Walker &.Security.Greyston.Federal . 
1M Rtn-7.5%-8.0%8.4%-3.9%--5.3%-5.3%
3M Rtn5.2%2.6%-20.1%7.9%--11.3%2.6%
6M Rtn-0.7%10.0%-8.6%1.5%-25.1%1.5%
12M Rtn0.8%7.8%-28.9%-24.4%-47.3%0.8%
3Y Rtn13.4%58.4%-21.6%39.9%-1,962.0%39.9%
1M Excs Rtn-7.2%-8.5%2.7%-7.5%--8.3%-7.5%
3M Excs Rtn2.8%-0.5%-22.8%5.3%--6.4%-0.5%
6M Excs Rtn-10.2%0.3%-17.8%-8.8%-9.2%-8.8%
12M Excs Rtn-13.3%-8.7%-44.8%-36.5%-47.1%-13.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-61.4%-12.2%-93.0%-33.4%-2,163.1%-33.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment579524486436370
Total579524486436370


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$38.01 
Market Cap ($ Bil)2.9 
First Trading Date05/14/2024 
Distance from 52W High-11.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$38.84$37.86
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-2.1%0.4%
 3M1YR
Volatility27.5%25.8%
Downside Capture-1.7054.20
Upside Capture27.2146.24
Correlation (SPY)9.5%46.5%
NMIH Betas & Captures as of 12/31/2025

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.750.520.260.430.62-0.01
Up Beta5.471.390.961.250.650.20
Down Beta-0.220.200.240.020.720.06
Up Capture123%92%24%19%41%8%
Bmk +ve Days11233772143431
Stock +ve Days11233363134221
Down Capture-27%-2%-6%51%62%52%
Bmk -ve Days11182755108320
Stock -ve Days10173062114183

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
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Based On 5-Year Data
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Based On 10-Year Data
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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date12312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,387,115
Short Interest: % Change Since 12152025-12.7%
Average Daily Volume370,972
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.74
Basic Shares Quantity77,410,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-1.8%0.6%0.1%
7/29/2025-1.6%-0.3%4.6%
4/29/20257.5%12.9%17.3%
2/6/2025-4.8%-8.4%-10.7%
11/6/2024-5.2%-2.8%0.0%
7/30/20240.4%-6.9%2.8%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive225
# Negative441
Median Positive4.0%6.7%2.8%
Median Negative-3.3%-4.9%-10.7%
Max Positive7.5%12.9%17.3%
Max Negative-5.2%-8.4%-10.7%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q (09/30/2025)
06/30/202507/30/202510-Q (06/30/2025)
03/31/202504/30/202510-Q (03/31/2025)
12/31/202402/14/202510-K (12/31/2024)
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q (09/30/2024)
06/30/202407/31/202410-Q (06/30/2024)
03/31/202405/01/202410-Q (03/31/2024)
12/31/202302/15/202410-K (12/31/2023)
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q (09/30/2023)
06/30/202308/02/202310-Q (06/30/2023)
03/31/202305/03/202310-Q (03/31/2023)
12/31/202202/15/202310-K (12/31/2022)
09/30/202211/02/202210-Q (09/30/2022)
06/30/202208/03/202210-Q (06/30/2022)
03/31/202205/05/202210-Q (03/31/2022)
12/31/202102/16/202210-K (12/31/2021)

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Embler, Michael J DirectSell1124202536.9020,000738,0001,699,097Form
2Scheid, Steven Scheid Family Trust, of which Mr. Scheid and his wife are co-trustees and beneficiariesSell917202539.3119,926783,3573,104,178Form
3Realmuto, Nicholas DanielVP, ControllerDirectSell916202538.5229111,209281,812Form
4Shuster, Bradley MExecutive ChairmanDirectSell606202539.5621,545852,28416,210,675Form
5Leatherberry, William JChief Admin. Officer & GCDirectSell530202539.6718,121718,8605,346,961Form