NMI (NMIH)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $40.87 | Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
NMI (NMIH)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $40.87Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.8%, FCF Yield is 12% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.2% | Key risksNMIH key risks include [1] the need to hold more capital or acquire more expensive reinsurance due to regulatory changes being phased in through 2026, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Future of Housing / Residential Real Estate. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Affordable Homeownership Access. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.8%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Future of Housing / Residential Real Estate. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Affordable Homeownership Access. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.2% |
| Key risksNMIH key risks include [1] the need to hold more capital or acquire more expensive reinsurance due to regulatory changes being phased in through 2026, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NMIH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of NMI Holdings (NMIH) saw a 4.2% jump on December 18, 2025. This movement was primarily driven by an analyst upgrade and positive financial performance. Here are the key points explaining the stock's movement:
1. Analyst Upgrade and Price Target Increase: Shares of NMI Holdings rose after an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgraded the stock's rating from 'Market Perform' to 'Outperform' and increased its price target from $46.00 to $48.00 on December 18, 2025. This indicated increased confidence in the company's future performance.
2. Record Revenue and Earnings in Q3 2025: Investors reacted positively to NMIH's solid growth in mortgage insurance-in-force and record-setting revenue and earnings reported for Q3 2025. NMI Holdings announced its Q3 2025 financial results on November 4, 2025, reporting net income of $96.0 million, or $1.22 per diluted share. The company's revenue for the quarter was up 7.6% compared to the same quarter last year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NMIH Return | � | � | � | � | � | 14% | � |
| Peers Return | � | -1% | -36% | 85% | 44% | 55% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NMIH Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 71% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 58% | 37% | 55% | 53% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NMIH Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -24% | -42% | -8% | -17% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ESNT, WD, SNFCA, FNMA, RKT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
NMIH has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,470 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NMIH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for NMI
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 30.07 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,263 |
| Op Inc LTM | 134 |
| FCF LTM | 217 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 295 |
| CFO LTM | 222 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 306 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.8 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 7.7 |
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/CFO | 6.1 |
| Total Yield | 10.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 78.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 3.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 13.8% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 7/29/2025 | -1.6% | -0.3% | 4.6% |
| 4/29/2025 | 7.5% | 12.9% | 17.3% |
| 2/6/2025 | -4.8% | -8.4% | -10.7% |
| 11/6/2024 | -5.2% | -2.8% | 0.0% |
| 7/30/2024 | 0.4% | -6.9% | 2.8% |
| 4/30/2024 | � | ||
| 2/14/2024 | |||
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| # Negative | 22 | 22 | 18 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 6.7% | 2.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -4.9% | -10.7% |
| Max Positive | 7.5% | 12.9% | 17.3% |
| Max Negative | -5.2% | -8.4% | -10.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | EMBLER MICHAEL J | 11242025 | Sell | 36.90 | 20,000 | 738,000 | 1,699,097 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |