Tearsheet

NMI (NMIH)


Market Price (12/21/2025): $40.87 | Market Cap: $3.2 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance

NMI (NMIH)


Market Price (12/21/2025): $40.87
Market Cap: $3.2 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.8%, FCF Yield is 12%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.2%
Key risks
NMIH key risks include [1] the need to hold more capital or acquire more expensive reinsurance due to regulatory changes being phased in through 2026, Show more.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Future of Housing / Residential Real Estate. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Affordable Homeownership Access.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.8%, FCF Yield is 12%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Future of Housing / Residential Real Estate. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Affordable Homeownership Access.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.2%
5 Key risks
NMIH key risks include [1] the need to hold more capital or acquire more expensive reinsurance due to regulatory changes being phased in through 2026, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NMIH Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of NMI Holdings (NMIH) saw a 4.2% jump on December 18, 2025. This movement was primarily driven by an analyst upgrade and positive financial performance. Here are the key points explaining the stock's movement:

1. Analyst Upgrade and Price Target Increase: Shares of NMI Holdings rose after an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgraded the stock's rating from 'Market Perform' to 'Outperform' and increased its price target from $46.00 to $48.00 on December 18, 2025. This indicated increased confidence in the company's future performance.

2. Record Revenue and Earnings in Q3 2025: Investors reacted positively to NMIH's solid growth in mortgage insurance-in-force and record-setting revenue and earnings reported for Q3 2025. NMI Holdings announced its Q3 2025 financial results on November 4, 2025, reporting net income of $96.0 million, or $1.22 per diluted share. The company's revenue for the quarter was up 7.6% compared to the same quarter last year.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NMIH Return14%
Peers Return-1%-36%85%44%55%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NMIH Win Rate71%58% 
Peers Win Rate53%58%37%55%53%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NMIH Max Drawdown-11% 
Peers Max Drawdown-24%-42%-8%-17%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ESNT, WD, SNFCA, FNMA, RKT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

NMIH has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4,470 days1,480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NMI (NMIH)

Better Bets than NMI (NMIH)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NMIH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%2.0%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.8%-4.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.1%-12.1%-12.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%2.0%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.8%-4.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.1%-12.1%-12.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NMI

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NMIHESNTWDSNFCAFNMARKTMedian
NameNMI Essent Walker &.Security.Federal .Rocket C. 
Mkt Price41.0766.2660.309.2410.7419.0830.07
Mkt Cap3.26.52.00.263.040.24.8
Rev LTM6921,2901,23634230,1005,4861,263
Op Inc LTM--134---134
FCF LTM387837-949465,614-1,264217
FCF 3Y Avg367798223519,925-1,756295
CFO LTM393854-937505,614-854222
CFO 3Y Avg375808237539,925-1,333306

Growth & Margins

NMIHESNTWDSNFCAFNMARKTMedian
NameNMI Essent Walker &.Security.Federal .Rocket C. 
Rev Chg LTM8.9%2.1%16.0%3.2%-1.0%41.7%6.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.3%8.2%-2.3%-4.5%-1.4%-0.3%-0.9%
Rev Chg Q7.6%-1.3%15.5%1.1%-1.2%141.3%4.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.9%-0.3%3.8%0.3%-0.3%18.6%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM--10.8%---10.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--11.4%---11.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.4%---0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM56.8%66.2%-75.8%14.6%18.7%-15.6%16.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg59.7%67.1%26.4%15.7%33.2%-32.3%29.8%
FCF/Rev LTM55.9%64.8%-76.8%13.6%18.7%-23.0%16.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg58.4%66.4%25.2%15.1%33.2%-42.4%29.2%

Valuation

NMIHESNTWDSNFCAFNMARKTMedian
NameNMI Essent Walker &.Security.Federal .Rocket C. 
Mkt Cap3.26.52.00.263.040.24.8
P/S4.65.01.60.72.17.33.3
P/EBIT6.17.515.18.0--7.7
P/E8.39.217.512.34.2-393.48.8
P/CFO8.17.6-2.14.611.2-47.06.1
Total Yield12.0%12.8%5.7%8.2%23.8%-0.3%10.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-13.4%11.3%23.9%207.4%-54.6%13.4%
D/E0.10.11.50.566.70.20.4
Net D/E-0.0-0.91.4-0.066.50.10.0

Returns

NMIHESNTWDSNFCAFNMARKTMedian
NameNMI Essent Walker &.Security.Federal .Rocket C. 
1M Rtn10.1%8.1%-1.6%16.5%11.5%18.0%10.8%
3M Rtn4.1%2.0%-30.1%4.2%-17.4%-7.0%-2.5%
6M Rtn0.5%12.4%-8.0%-1.0%7.5%32.5%4.0%
12M Rtn12.4%27.0%-36.1%-17.8%299.3%70.6%19.7%
3Y Rtn-78.8%-14.7%69.5%2,673.8%167.4%78.8%
1M Excs Rtn8.4%6.1%-6.1%14.7%-8.5%10.8%7.3%
3M Excs Rtn3.7%0.8%-31.0%4.0%-16.5%-5.8%-2.5%
6M Excs Rtn-15.4%-3.9%-25.2%-11.3%-4.8%16.5%-8.1%
12M Excs Rtn-4.0%10.9%-53.9%-35.6%284.8%53.3%3.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-13.8%-88.4%0.1%2,417.5%75.1%13.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment579524486436370
Total579524486436370


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,516,329
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-3.3%
Average Daily Volume423,387
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.58
Basic Shares Quantity77,410,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-1.8%0.6%0.1%
7/29/2025-1.6%-0.3%4.6%
4/29/20257.5%12.9%17.3%
2/6/2025-4.8%-8.4%-10.7%
11/6/2024-5.2%-2.8%0.0%
7/30/20240.4%-6.9%2.8%
4/30/2024  
2/14/2024   
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive226
# Negative222218
Median Positive4.0%6.7%2.8%
Median Negative-3.3%-4.9%-10.7%
Max Positive7.5%12.9%17.3%
Max Negative-5.2%-8.4%-10.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0EMBLER MICHAEL J 11242025Sell36.9020,000738,0001,699,097Form