Mister Car Wash (MCW)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $5.75 | Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialized Consumer Services
Mister Car Wash (MCW)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $5.75Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Specialized Consumer Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -113% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.39 | Key risksMCW key risks include [1] a significant debt load and potential liquidity challenges from its capital-intensive growth model, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Process / Warehouse Automation. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Process / Warehouse Automation. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -113% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.39 |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92% |
| Key risksMCW key risks include [1] a significant debt load and potential liquidity challenges from its capital-intensive growth model, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MCW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Mister Car Wash reported strong third-quarter 2025 financial results, with net revenues increasing by 6% to $263.4 million, surpassing Wall Street's expectations.
2. The company demonstrated consistent operational strength with a 3.1% rise in comparable-store sales, marking its tenth consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MCW Return | � | � | -49% | -6% | -16% | -22% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -17% | -22% | -1% | -10% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MCW Win Rate | � | 33% | 25% | 50% | 42% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 68% | 42% | 39% | 47% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MCW Max Drawdown | � | � | -55% | -46% | -31% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -30% | -38% | -20% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DRVN, VVV, MNRO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MCW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 372.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to HRB, MATW, ANDG, DASH, SCI
In The Past
Mister Car Wash's stock fell -78.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/23/2021. A -78.8% loss requires a 372.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MCW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| 09302023 | MCW | Mister Car Wash | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.7% | 21.4% | -9.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| 09302023 | MCW | Mister Car Wash | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.7% | 21.4% | -9.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Mister Car Wash
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 17.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,451 |
| Op Inc LTM | 205 |
| FCF LTM | 35 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -53 |
| CFO LTM | 272 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 207 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -4.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.2 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | -1.7 |
| P/E | 2.8 |
| P/CFO | 8.8 |
| Total Yield | 0.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.0% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -9.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -15.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -40.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -115.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 8.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% |
| 7/30/2025 | -5.9% | -6.4% | -7.7% |
| 4/30/2025 | 9.2% | 9.3% | 3.2% |
| 2/19/2025 | -1.6% | -0.5% | 7.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | 12.9% | 25.4% | 20.3% |
| 7/31/2024 | -3.6% | -16.6% | -13.9% |
| 5/1/2024 | 4.3% | 16.1% | 5.1% |
| 2/21/2024 | -10.3% | -5.4% | -13.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 11.1% | 12.7% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -6.7% | -9.0% |
| Max Positive | 17.8% | 25.4% | 48.0% |
| Max Negative | -15.4% | -20.2% | -17.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |