Tearsheet

Mister Car Wash (MCW)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.25 | Market Cap: $1.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialized Consumer Services

Mister Car Wash (MCW)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.25
Market Cap: $1.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Specialized Consumer Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 99%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%
  
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33%
  
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Process / Warehouse Automation.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33%
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Process / Warehouse Automation.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118%
7 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 99%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MCW Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points highlighting why Mister Car Wash (MCW) stock moved by -7.5% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Analyst Price Target Downgrades: Several financial institutions lowered their price targets for Mister Car Wash's stock during this period. For example, Piper Sandler downgraded its price target from $8 to $6 on October 24, 2025, and UBS adjusted its price target to $6.25 from $7.25 on October 30, 2025, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating. This suggests a less optimistic outlook from analysts on the company's future stock performance.

2. Concerns over Retail Funnel Weakness and Declining Retail Comparable Sales: Despite overall positive Q3 2025 earnings, there were underlying concerns about the weakness in the retail segment of the business. Reports as of November 5, 2025, indicated that the "Retail Funnel Is Still Weak." The Q3 2025 earnings call also highlighted "declining retail comps" as a challenge.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MCW Return---49%-6%-16%-29%-71%
Peers Return-10%17%-4%33%12%1%51%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MCW Win Rate-33%25%50%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate23%37%23%35%33%37% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MCW Max Drawdown---55%-46%-31%-36% 
Peers Max Drawdown-20%-5%-24%-5%-10%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HRB, MATW, MEDG, WW, DASH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMCWS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-78.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven372.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to HRB, MATW, MEDG, WW, DASH


In The Past

Mister Car Wash's stock fell -78.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/23/2021. A -78.8% loss requires a 372.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Mister Car Wash (MCW)

Better Bets than Mister Car Wash (MCW)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MCW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
MCW_9302023_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE09302023MCWMister Car WashDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
40.7%21.4%-9.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
MCW_9302023_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE09302023MCWMister Car WashDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
40.7%21.4%-9.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Mister Car Wash

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MCWHRBMATWMEDGWWDASHMedian
NameMister C.H&R BlockMatthews.MEDI WW Inter.DoorDash  
Mkt Price5.2842.7324.79-26.78222.4826.78
Mkt Cap1.75.60.8--95.43.7
Rev LTM1,0423,7711,626-74112,6351,626
Op Inc LTM207849-3-103695207
FCF LTM27576-36--1,992301
FCF 3Y Avg-586598--1,550333
CFO LTM2766532--2,528464
CFO 3Y Avg24172956--1,946485

Growth & Margins

MCWHRBMATWMEDGWWDASHMedian
NameMister C.H&R BlockMatthews.MEDI WW Inter.DoorDash  
Rev Chg LTM7.0%4.2%-11.1%--10.7%24.5%4.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.9%3.0%-2.1%--13.2%27.8%3.0%
Rev Chg Q5.7%5.0%-18.3%--12.4%27.3%5.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.4%0.3%-4.6%--3.3%6.2%0.3%
Op Mgn LTM19.9%22.5%-0.2%-13.9%5.5%13.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg19.6%21.9%2.4%-8.9%-2.1%8.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%0.5%0.7%-1.2%0.9%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM26.4%17.3%0.1%--20.0%18.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg24.6%20.2%3.0%--18.5%19.4%
FCF/Rev LTM2.6%15.3%-2.2%--15.8%8.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-6.2%18.3%0.3%--14.7%7.5%

Valuation

MCWHRBMATWMEDGWWDASHMedian
NameMister C.H&R BlockMatthews.MEDI WW Inter.DoorDash  
Mkt Cap1.75.60.8--95.43.7
P/S1.71.80.5--9.21.7
P/EBIT9.27.621.3--167.915.2
P/E18.910.8-11.4--135.214.9
P/CFO6.310.2359.7--46.128.2
Total Yield5.3%11.5%-4.5%--0.7%3.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.3%4.3%--0.0%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.9%9.3%-0.1%--2.5%1.2%
D/E1.00.31.0--0.00.7
Net D/E1.00.31.0---0.00.6

Returns

MCWHRBMATWMEDGWWDASHMedian
NameMister C.H&R BlockMatthews.MEDI WW Inter.DoorDash  
1M Rtn-2.8%-13.6%6.9%--21.4%-8.1%-8.1%
3M Rtn-5.2%-15.5%3.4%--15.6%-10.6%-10.6%
6M Rtn-20.4%-26.0%12.6%--1.0%-9.7%
12M Rtn-32.3%-24.4%-13.5%--26.3%-19.0%
3Y Rtn-48.2%9.9%-13.8%--303.1%-1.9%
1M Excs Rtn-2.7%-13.5%6.9%--21.3%-8.1%-8.1%
3M Excs Rtn-11.7%-22.2%-4.7%--21.6%-15.9%-15.9%
6M Excs Rtn-35.1%-40.8%-2.1%---13.7%-24.4%
12M Excs Rtn-47.5%-39.4%-27.0%--9.7%-33.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-117.9%-65.2%-86.0%--234.3%-75.6%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,644,018
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.9%
Average Daily Volume1,664,991
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.19
Basic Shares Quantity327,389,467
Short % of Basic Shares4.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022812202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022513202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021325202210-K 12/31/2021