Mister Car Wash (MCW)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $5.755 | Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialized Consumer Services
Mister Car Wash (MCW)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $5.755Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Specialized Consumer Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 99% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.39 | Key risksMCW key risks include [1] a significant debt load and potential liquidity challenges from its capital-intensive growth model, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Process / Warehouse Automation. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Process / Warehouse Automation. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.39 |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 99% |
| Key risksMCW key risks include [1] a significant debt load and potential liquidity challenges from its capital-intensive growth model, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MCW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period of 8/31/2025 to today (December 18, 2025) is in the future. As an AI, I do not have access to future stock market data or news events. However, following the instruction to use the most recent available information if the end date is in the future, I have gathered key points from Mister Car Wash's recent financial reports and news, primarily focusing on information released in 2024 and projected into early 2025. This information does not specifically address a 0.7% stock movement within the future period requested, as such data is not yet available.
1. Strong Q4 2024 Performance with Revenue and Earnings Beat
Mister Car Wash reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, with net revenues increasing 9.1% year-over-year to $251.17 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 2024 were $0.09, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.07. This strong performance, including a 6% comparable store sales growth against a 3% average estimate, generally indicates positive momentum for the company.
2. Full-Year 2024 Growth and Strategic Expansion
For the full year 2024, Mister Car Wash achieved a 7% increase in net revenues to $994.7 million and a 12% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $320.9 million. The company also expanded its footprint by opening 40 new locations, exceeding 500 total stores, and successfully introduced its premium "Titanium" service which saw 23% penetration among Unlimited Wash Club (UWC) memberships.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MCW Return | � | � | -49% | -6% | -16% | -23% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -17% | -22% | -1% | -10% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MCW Win Rate | � | 33% | 25% | 50% | 42% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 68% | 42% | 39% | 47% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MCW Max Drawdown | � | � | -55% | -46% | -31% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -30% | -38% | -20% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DRVN, VVV, MNRO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MCW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 372.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to HRB, MATW, MEDG, WW, DASH
In The Past
Mister Car Wash's stock fell -78.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/23/2021. A -78.8% loss requires a 372.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MCW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 09302023 | MCW | Mister Car Wash | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.7% | 21.4% | -9.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 09302023 | MCW | Mister Car Wash | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.7% | 21.4% | -9.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Mister Car Wash
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.39 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,451 |
| Op Inc LTM | 205 |
| FCF LTM | 35 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -53 |
| CFO LTM | 272 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 207 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -4.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.2 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | -14.0 |
| P/E | 2.8 |
| P/CFO | 8.6 |
| Total Yield | 0.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.9% |
| D/E | 1.0 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -15.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -41.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -27.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -113.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 8.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% |
| 7/30/2025 | -5.9% | -6.4% | -7.7% |
| 4/30/2025 | 9.2% | 9.3% | 3.2% |
| 2/19/2025 | -1.6% | -0.5% | 7.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | 12.9% | 25.4% | 20.3% |
| 7/31/2024 | -3.6% | -16.6% | -13.9% |
| 5/1/2024 | 4.3% | 16.1% | 5.1% |
| 2/21/2024 | -10.3% | -5.4% | -13.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 11.1% | 12.7% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -6.7% | -9.0% |
| Max Positive | 17.8% | 25.4% | 48.0% |
| Max Negative | -15.4% | -20.2% | -17.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |