Mister Car Wash (MCW)
Market Price (1/20/2026): $5.91 | Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialized Consumer Services
Mister Car Wash (MCW)
Market Price (1/20/2026): $5.91Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Specialized Consumer Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 88% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | Key risksMCW key risks include [1] a significant debt load and potential liquidity challenges from its capital-intensive growth model, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Process / Warehouse Automation. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Process / Warehouse Automation. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 88% |
| Key risksMCW key risks include [1] a significant debt load and potential liquidity challenges from its capital-intensive growth model, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.2% change in MCW stock from 10/31/2025 to 1/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 10312025 | 1192026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.59 | 5.99 | 7.16% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1041.66 | 1041.66 | 0.00% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.85% | 8.85% | 0.00% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.85 | 21.28 | 7.16% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 327.39 | 327.39 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.16% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 1/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCW | 7.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.4% | 32.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.9% | 40.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.7% change in MCW stock from 7/31/2025 to 1/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 7312025 | 1192026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.78 | 5.99 | 3.72% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1017.20 | 1041.66 | 2.40% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.92% | 8.85% | 11.67% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.23 | 21.28 | -8.41% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 324.20 | 327.39 | -0.98% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.71% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 1/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCW | 3.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.7% | 25.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 10.7% | 29.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -25.3% change in MCW stock from 1/31/2025 to 1/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -39.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 1312025 | 1192026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.02 | 5.99 | -25.31% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 973.70 | 1041.66 | 6.98% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.54% | 8.85% | 17.31% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.15 | 21.28 | -39.48% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 321.92 | 327.39 | -1.70% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -25.33% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 1/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCW | -25.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.9% | 45.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 6.1% | 51.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -41.7% change in MCW stock from 1/31/2023 to 1/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -42.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 1312023 | 1192026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.27 | 5.99 | -41.67% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 853.61 | 1041.66 | 22.03% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.40% | 8.85% | -42.54% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.77 | 21.28 | -10.51% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 304.29 | 327.39 | -7.59% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -42.01% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 1/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCW | -41.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.5% | 35.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 68.4% | 37.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MCW Return | -10% | -49% | -6% | -16% | -24% | 10% | -70% |
| Peers Return | 34% | -17% | -22% | -1% | -14% | 7% | -21% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MCW Win Rate | 43% | 25% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 69% | 42% | 39% | 47% | 42% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MCW Max Drawdown | -21% | -55% | -46% | -31% | -36% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -30% | -38% | -20% | -29% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | 0% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DRVN, VVV, MNRO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MCW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 372.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to DRVN, VVV, MNRO
In The Past
Mister Car Wash's stock fell -78.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/23/2021. A -78.8% loss requires a 372.5% gain to breakeven.
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Mister Car Wash, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides conveyorized car wash services in the United States. It offers express exterior and interior cleaning services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 396 car wash locations in 21 states. The company was formerly known as Hotshine Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Mister Car Wash, Inc. in March 2021. Mister Car Wash, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Tucson, Arizona.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Mister Car Wash (MCW):
- Planet Fitness for cars: Similar to Planet Fitness, Mister Car Wash builds a network of accessible locations offering a basic, repeatable service with a strong emphasis on recurring membership revenue.
- Starbucks for car washes: Like Starbucks, Mister Car Wash aims for ubiquity, a consistent brand experience across numerous locations, and encourages frequent, habitual visits for a common service.
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- Express Exterior Car Wash Services: Provides automated tunnel car washing for the exterior of vehicles, with various package options.
- Unlimited Wash Memberships: A subscription service allowing customers to wash their vehicle as frequently as desired for a recurring monthly fee.
- Self-Serve Vacuum Amenities: Offers complimentary access to powerful vacuum stations for customers to clean their vehicle's interior after an exterior wash.
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Mister Car Wash (MCW) Major Customers
Mister Car Wash (MCW) primarily sells its car wash services directly to individuals.
The company serves the following categories of customers:
- Unlimited Wash Club Members: These are individual customers who subscribe to a recurring monthly membership plan, allowing them unlimited car washes at any Mister Car Wash location. This category represents a significant portion of their revenue and customer base.
- Single-Wash Customers: These are individual customers who pay for a one-time car wash service, either by driving up to a location or purchasing a single wash package.
- Fleet/Commercial Customers: While the primary focus is on individual consumers, Mister Car Wash also serves some local businesses and organizations that utilize their services for their vehicle fleets. This typically involves custom agreements for multiple vehicles.
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John Lai, Chairman, CEO, and President
John Lai joined Mister Car Wash in 2002 and became CEO in 2013, having previously served as Chief Operating Officer and Vice President of Market Development. Prior to Mister Car Wash, he was Vice President of Sales for Financenter, President of Blue Coral Systems, a direct account manager for Nestle, a district manager for Carnation Company, and a general assembler for IBM.
Jed Gold, Chief Financial Officer
Jed Gold joined Mister Car Wash as Chief Financial Officer in 2019. He has a 20-year finance and accounting background, including nearly 14 years with Yum! Brands, where he served as Assistant Treasurer and Chief Financial Officer for KFC Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan.
Mary Porter, Chief People Officer
Mary Porter has served as Chief People Officer since April 2023. She previously spent 27 years with Nordstrom, culminating in her role as Vice President of Human Resources, supporting Nordstrom and Nordstrom Rack across the U.S. and Canada.
Joseph Matheny, Chief Innovation Officer
Joseph Matheny has served as Chief Innovation Officer since October 2023. He joined Mister Car Wash in 1998 and previously served as Senior Vice President, Operations since March 2020, and held General Manager, Regional Manager, and Division Manager roles prior to that.
Carlos Chavez, Chief Technology Officer
Carlos Chavez joined Mister Car Wash as Chief Technology Officer in 2025. He began his career in management consulting with Deloitte and later led technology teams at global multi-unit brands such as Blockbuster, FedEx, and Yum! Brands.
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Key Risks to Mister Car Wash (MCW)
- High Debt Load and Liquidity Challenges: Mister Car Wash faces significant financial risk due to its substantial debt load and potential liquidity challenges. The company's liabilities notably exceed its cash and short-term receivables, and its interest cover is considered weak, indicating high leverage. Analysts have highlighted that a heavy debt load keeps balance sheet risk a primary concern. Furthermore, the company's reliance on sale-leasebacks and higher lease commitments, coupled with falling cash reserves, underscores the capital intensity of its growth model and potential liquidity issues.
- Intense Market Competition and Potential Saturation: The car wash industry is highly competitive and fragmented, with numerous smaller operators posing a constant challenge to market share. Differentiators in the market are often easily replicable, intensifying competitive pressures. There are concerns that an increase in new car wash locations, particularly greenfield projects by both Mister Car Wash and its competitors, could lead to market saturation and a reduction in revenue per location for existing stores.
- Dependency on Unlimited Wash Club (UWC) and Consumer Spending Volatility: A significant portion of Mister Car Wash's revenue, approximately 74% of wash sales in 2024, comes from its Unlimited Wash Club (UWC) subscription program. This heavy reliance means that the company's sustained revenue and growth are highly dependent on its ability to continuously attract and retain UWC members. Additionally, the business is susceptible to fluctuations in consumer spending and economic conditions, as car wash purchases can decline during periods of weak consumer confidence or economic instability, which can reduce demand for services and impact profitability.
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The emergence and growth of mobile, on-demand car wash and detailing services. These services leverage technology platforms to provide car cleaning directly at the customer's home or workplace, offering a convenience proposition that directly competes with Mister Car Wash's physical location-based, drive-thru model. This shift mirrors the disruption seen in other industries where services are brought to the consumer rather than requiring the consumer to travel to a physical location.
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The addressable market for Mister Car Wash's main products and services, primarily car wash services, is the U.S. car wash services market. The market size for car wash services in the U.S. is estimated to be:- Approximately $14.74 billion in 2024, projected to grow to $16.95 billion by 2030.
- Alternatively, it was estimated at $20.8 billion in 2024 and $20.7 billion in 2025 for the "Car Wash & Auto Detailing in the US" market.
- Another estimate indicates the U.S. car wash services market was approximately $14.7 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $20.2 billion by 2030.
- Further estimates indicate the U.S. car wash service market size at $11.88 billion in 2024, expected to reach around $17.04 billion by 2034.
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Mister Car Wash (MCW) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Expansion of Store Footprint: Mister Car Wash continues its growth trajectory by opening new greenfield locations and pursuing strategic acquisitions. For instance, the company opened nine new stores in Q2 2024, bringing its total to 491 locations, with plans to reach 500 soon. In Q3 2023, eight new greenfield stores were opened, with a full-year target of approximately 35. Additionally, after Q3 2025, Mister Car Wash acquired five Whistle Express locations in Lubbock, Texas, significantly expanding its market share there.
- Growth in Unlimited Wash Club (UWC) Membership and Premium Tier Adoption: The Unlimited Wash Club (UWC) remains a cornerstone of Mister Car Wash's revenue strategy, consistently driving sales. The company is focused on increasing its UWC member base and encouraging a mix-shift into higher-priced premium offerings like the Titanium 360 tier. In Q2 2024, the UWC member base increased 3% year-over-year, adding 15,000 net new members, and Titanium membership adoption reached 20% of the member base, contributing to a higher average express revenue per member. By Q3 2025, UWC membership had grown 6% year-over-year to approximately 2.2 million members, with Titanium 360 achieving about 25% penetration of the total membership base.
- Strategic Price Increases: Mister Car Wash has successfully implemented price increases for its base membership, which has contributed to higher revenue per member without significantly impacting churn rates. Management views these initial results as demonstrating a strong price-to-value relationship and indicating future opportunities for revenue growth. The majority of comparable store sales growth is expected to come from Titanium adoption and the increase in revenue per member.
- Leveraging Moderating Competition and Industry Normalization: The company anticipates that the pace of new competitor openings will continue to decelerate from its 2023 highs. This normalization of the competitive environment is expected to allow Mister Car Wash to capture incremental market share and drive further growth.
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Share Repurchases
- No significant share repurchase programs or dollar amounts of repurchases made by Mister Car Wash were identified within the last 3-5 years.
Share Issuance
- Mister Car Wash completed an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on June 28, 2021, raising $468 million through the sale of 37.5 million shares at $18.90 per share.
- Total common equity increased from approximately $866 million in Q2 2023 to $1.03 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting retained earnings growth and equity issuances.
Inbound Investments
- No information available regarding large third-party inbound investments made directly into Mister Car Wash (MCW) as a public company within the specified timeframe.
Outbound Investments
- In October 2025, Mister Car Wash acquired five stores in Lubbock, Texas, significantly expanding its presence in that market.
- The company's strategy includes network expansion through acquisitions, often coupled with sale-leaseback real estate transactions to accelerate return on investment.
Capital Expenditures
- For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, total capital expenditures are expected to range from $255 million to $275 million.
- The primary focus for 2025 capital expenditures is new store growth, with approximately $205 million to $220 million allocated for this purpose, alongside $50 million to $55 million for store-level maintenance, productivity improvements, and the integration of acquired locations.
- Mister Car Wash projected approximately 30 new greenfield locations for 2025, a reduction from 38 in 2024 and 54 in 2021.
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Peer Comparisons for Mister Car Wash
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| Rev LTM | 1,451 |
| Op Inc LTM | 205 |
| FCF LTM | 35 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -53 |
| CFO LTM | 272 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 207 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -4.8% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $5.99 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/25/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -29.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $5.49 | $6.04 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 9.2% | -0.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.3% | 39.1% |
| Downside Capture | 28.41 | 98.42 |
| Upside Capture | 113.41 | 65.08 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 19.3% | 44.7% |
MCW Betas & Captures as of 12/31/2025
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.57 | 0.81 | 0.62 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| Up Beta | 2.43 | 0.47 | 0.58 | 1.23 | 1.05 | 1.14 |
| Down Beta | -1.62 | 0.16 | 0.65 | 0.36 | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| Up Capture | 165% | 109% | 68% | 71% | 46% | 62% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 37 | 72 | 143 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 29 | 55 | 106 | 344 |
| Down Capture | 70% | 112% | 58% | 135% | 99% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 18 | 27 | 55 | 108 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 33 | 69 | 140 | 396 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
nullBased On 5-Year Data
nullBased On 10-Year Data
nullReturns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 8.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% |
| 7/30/2025 | -5.9% | -6.4% | -7.7% |
| 4/30/2025 | 9.2% | 9.3% | 3.2% |
| 2/19/2025 | -1.6% | -0.5% | 7.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | 12.9% | 25.4% | 20.3% |
| 7/31/2024 | -3.6% | -16.6% | -13.9% |
| 5/1/2024 | 4.3% | 16.1% | 5.1% |
| 2/21/2024 | -10.3% | -5.4% | -13.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 11.1% | 12.7% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -6.7% | -9.0% |
| Max Positive | 17.8% | 25.4% | 48.0% |
| Max Negative | -15.4% | -20.2% | -17.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q (09/30/2025) |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q (06/30/2025) |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q (03/31/2025) |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K (12/31/2024) |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q (09/30/2024) |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q (06/30/2024) |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q (03/31/2024) |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K (12/31/2023) |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q (09/30/2023) |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q (06/30/2023) |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q (03/31/2023) |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K (12/31/2022) |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/14/2022 | 10-Q (09/30/2022) |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-Q (06/30/2022) |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/13/2022 | 10-Q (03/31/2022) |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/25/2022 | 10-K (12/31/2021) |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold, Jedidiah Marc | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6272025 | 6.13 | 6,357 | 38,968 | 463,655 | Form |
| 2 | Lai, John Lo-Minn | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6272025 | 6.13 | 33,904 | 207,832 | 28,065,286 | Form |
| 3 | Matheny, Joseph Duane | Chief Innovation Officer | Direct | Sell | 6272025 | 6.13 | 2,119 | 12,989 | 558,302 | Form |
| 4 | Matheny, Joseph Duane | Chief Innovation Officer | Direct | Sell | 6252025 | 6.30 | 102,456 | 645,473 | 555,635 | Form |
| 5 | Porter, Mary Lyn | Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 6032025 | 6.69 | 6,303 | 42,167 | 154,412 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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