Mister Car Wash (MCW)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.25 | Market Cap: $1.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialized Consumer Services
Mister Car Wash (MCW)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.25Market Cap: $1.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Specialized Consumer Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 99% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Process / Warehouse Automation. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Process / Warehouse Automation. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 99% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MCW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why Mister Car Wash (MCW) stock moved by -7.5% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Analyst Price Target Downgrades: Several financial institutions lowered their price targets for Mister Car Wash's stock during this period. For example, Piper Sandler downgraded its price target from $8 to $6 on October 24, 2025, and UBS adjusted its price target to $6.25 from $7.25 on October 30, 2025, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating. This suggests a less optimistic outlook from analysts on the company's future stock performance.
2. Concerns over Retail Funnel Weakness and Declining Retail Comparable Sales: Despite overall positive Q3 2025 earnings, there were underlying concerns about the weakness in the retail segment of the business. Reports as of November 5, 2025, indicated that the "Retail Funnel Is Still Weak." The Q3 2025 earnings call also highlighted "declining retail comps" as a challenge.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MCW Return | - | - | -49% | -6% | -16% | -29% | -71% |
| Peers Return | -10% | 17% | -4% | 33% | 12% | 1% | 51% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MCW Win Rate | - | 33% | 25% | 50% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 23% | 37% | 23% | 35% | 33% | 37% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MCW Max Drawdown | - | - | -55% | -46% | -31% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -5% | -24% | -5% | -10% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HRB, MATW, MEDG, WW, DASH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MCW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 372.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to HRB, MATW, MEDG, WW, DASH
In The Past
Mister Car Wash's stock fell -78.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/23/2021. A -78.8% loss requires a 372.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Can Mister Car Wash Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return | ||
| Mister Car Wash (MCW) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Mister Car Wash (MCW) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Mister Car Wash (MCW) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Mister Car Wash (MCW) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Mister Car Wash (MCW) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Mister Car Wash (MCW) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Mister Car Wash (MCW) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why Mister Car Wash Stock Moved: MCW Stock Has Lost 71% Since 2021 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| MCW Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | October 7th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MCW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 09302023 | MCW | Mister Car Wash | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.7% | 21.4% | -9.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 09302023 | MCW | Mister Car Wash | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.7% | 21.4% | -9.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Mister Car Wash
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 26.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,626 |
| Op Inc LTM | 207 |
| FCF LTM | 301 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 333 |
| CFO LTM | 464 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 485 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 15.2 |
| P/E | 14.9 |
| P/CFO | 28.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -9.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -19.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -1.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -24.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -33.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -75.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |