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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 5.4%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 66%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
Key risks
LNW key risks include [1] high-stakes intellectual property litigation and related shareholder lawsuits concerning its "Dragon Train" slot machines and [2] the failure to achieve expected benefits from strategic acquisitions and integrations.
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
 
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Gaming Content & Platforms, and Travel & Leisure Tech.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 5.4%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Gaming Content & Platforms, and Travel & Leisure Tech.
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 66%
5 Key risks
LNW key risks include [1] high-stakes intellectual property litigation and related shareholder lawsuits concerning its "Dragon Train" slot machines and [2] the failure to achieve expected benefits from strategic acquisitions and integrations.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LNW Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -7.4% stock movement for Light & Wonder (LNW) from August 31, 2025, to December 21, 2025: **1. Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share Miss:** Light & Wonder reported its third-quarter 2025 results with revenue largely in line with analyst estimates, but a notable 30.9% miss on earnings per share (EPS) expectations. Although the stock initially remained flat following the announcement, this significant earnings miss likely contributed to a decline in investor confidence over the period.

**2. Planned Nasdaq Delisting:** The company's board approved a strategic move towards a sole primary listing on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), with the delisting from the Nasdaq exchange anticipated by the end of November 2025. This significant corporate action could have introduced uncertainty for investors, potentially affecting stock liquidity and leading to selling pressure as some investors adjusted their portfolios.

**3. Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Gaming Machine Sales:** The second-quarter 2025 earnings report, released on August 6, 2025, highlighted a 1% decrease in overall revenue and lower gaming machine sales. This was attributed to a challenging macroeconomic environment, leading to more cautious purchasing behavior and delayed capital expenditure from customers, particularly in the Asian market. These lingering economic headwinds likely continued to weigh on investor sentiment throughout the subsequent months.

**4. Analyst Downgrade:** On August 7, 2025, near the beginning of the specified period, JP Morgan downgraded Light & Wonder's stock to a "Neutral" rating. Such a downgrade from a prominent financial institution can negatively influence market perception and contribute to downward pressure on a company's stock price.

**5. Reversal of Revenue Growth Trend:** After a sustained period of consolidated revenue growth, the company experienced a slight 1% decrease in revenue in its Q2 2025 results. This reversal, contrasting with previous growth trends, likely raised concerns among investors about the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory in the face of ongoing market challenges.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LNW Return55%61%-12%40%5%
Peers Return-33%13%-8%-17%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LNW Win Rate58%58%33%58%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate45%37%53%50%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LNW Max Drawdown-85%-10%-38%-6%-5%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-50%-21%-36%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DOCS, GXO, SAIC, CLVT, FIVN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLNWS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-53.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven116.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven507 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-86.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven639.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven181 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-75.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven310.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven881 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-74.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven289.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven3,122 days1,480 days

Compare to DOCS, GXO, SAIC, CLVT, FIVN


In The Past

Light & Wonder's stock fell -53.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/27/2021. A -53.8% loss requires a 116.5% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Light & Wonder (LNW)

Better Bets than Light & Wonder (LNW)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LNW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.7%13.7%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.4%18.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.9%11.9%-1.6%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.7%13.7%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.4%18.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.9%11.9%-1.6%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Light & Wonder

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LNWDOCSGXOSAICCLVTFIVNMedian
NameLight & .Doximity GXO Logi.Science .ClarivateFive9  
Mkt Price-43.6553.29102.003.4920.5443.65
Mkt Cap7.28.26.14.72.31.65.4
Rev LTM3,22162112,9217,3502,5011,1272,861
Op Inc LTM83024741152417713329
FCF LTM38931277427335127324
FCF 3Y Avg26623019743140995248
CFO LTM677320450466610192458
CFO 3Y Avg537236532462665149497

Growth & Margins

LNWDOCSGXOSAICCLVTFIVNMedian
NameLight & .Doximity GXO Logi.Science .ClarivateFive9  
Rev Chg LTM1.9%20.2%16.9%-0.4%-3.0%12.5%7.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.3%17.4%13.7%-0.7%-0.5%14.9%12.0%
Rev Chg Q2.9%23.2%7.5%-5.6%0.1%8.2%5.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.8%5.4%1.9%-1.5%0.0%2.0%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM25.8%39.7%3.2%7.1%7.1%1.2%7.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg23.3%36.9%3.4%7.0%9.1%-5.6%8.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.1%-0.7%0.1%-0.3%-1.2%2.8%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM21.0%51.5%3.5%6.3%24.4%17.1%19.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.3%43.9%4.9%6.2%25.9%14.7%16.0%
FCF/Rev LTM12.1%50.2%0.6%5.8%13.4%11.3%11.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.5%42.7%1.9%5.8%15.9%9.5%9.0%

Valuation

LNWDOCSGXOSAICCLVTFIVNMedian
NameLight & .Doximity GXO Logi.Science .ClarivateFive9  
Mkt Cap7.28.26.14.72.31.65.4
P/S2.213.20.50.60.91.41.2
P/EBIT9.033.222.79.0-72.432.915.9
P/E18.032.468.512.6-5.950.925.2
P/CFO10.625.613.610.03.88.310.3
Total Yield5.5%3.1%1.5%9.4%-17.0%2.0%2.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%1.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.6%3.0%3.0%7.8%10.6%4.0%3.8%
D/E0.70.00.90.61.90.50.6
Net D/E0.7-0.10.80.61.80.10.6

Returns

LNWDOCSGXOSAICCLVTFIVNMedian
NameLight & .Doximity GXO Logi.Science .ClarivateFive9  
1M Rtn--6.0%15.3%20.0%5.1%15.5%15.3%
3M Rtn--40.1%7.3%-1.4%-13.0%-22.5%-13.0%
6M Rtn--23.9%11.1%-0.9%-16.9%-23.5%-16.9%
12M Rtn--24.5%27.0%-7.2%-29.9%-51.8%-24.5%
3Y Rtn-22.5%23.1%-4.4%-56.9%-69.7%-4.4%
1M Excs Rtn--12.0%10.9%16.0%0.7%9.5%9.5%
3M Excs Rtn--41.9%4.8%-1.2%-16.1%-27.0%-16.1%
6M Excs Rtn--38.1%-4.9%-14.9%-25.7%-36.1%-25.7%
12M Excs Rtn--30.1%0.5%-22.6%-48.9%-64.9%-30.1%
3Y Excs Rtn--50.9%-56.1%-76.1%-132.4%-143.0%-76.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Gaming1,8501,6011,321 1,748
SciPlay777671606 466
iGaming275240226  
Unallocated and Reconciling Items00   
Digital    275
Lottery    911
Total2,9022,5122,153 3,400


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Gaming4,0234,0734,1124,3644,932
iGaming712626633423 
SciPlay473761696564379
Unallocated and Reconciling Items344549468718286
Total assets of businesses held for sale  1,9741,915 
Digital    891
Lottery    1,321
Total5,5526,0097,8837,9847,809


Price Behavior

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/20258.5%17.4%16.6%
8/6/2025-14.4%-2.6%-1.9%
5/7/2025-14.0%-10.1%-7.1%
2/25/20256.9%4.9%3.8%
11/12/2024-10.0%-10.9%-8.9%
8/7/20241.8%1.5%4.5%
5/8/2024-5.1%-1.9%1.2%
2/27/20240.9%2.7%7.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111215
# Negative12118
Median Positive7.0%9.2%7.6%
Median Negative-6.0%-4.4%-9.1%
Max Positive12.8%20.8%36.6%
Max Negative-18.0%-29.0%-86.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021