Indie Semiconductor (INDI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.35 | Market Cap: $867.1 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Indie Semiconductor (INDI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.35Market Cap: $867.1 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -94%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -146 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -67% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.3 | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.5% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 109% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -22% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -94%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.3 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -146 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -67% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.5% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 109% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -22% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 26% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
INDI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Downward Revision of FY2025 Revenue Expectations.**
The market revised its revenue expectations for Indie Semiconductor (INDI) for fiscal year 2025 downward by 2.53% over the three months preceding December 2025, a period that largely overlaps the requested timeframe. This downward adjustment in forecasts contributed to a broader stock price change of -12.16% during the same three-month period.
**2. Missed Q3 2025 Earnings Estimates.**
On November 6, 2025, Indie Semiconductor reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results. The company posted a Non-GAAP loss per share of $0.07, which missed the consensus analyst estimate of $0.06 by $0.01.
**3. Continued Operating Losses in Q3 2025.**
In its Q3 2025 results, Indie Semiconductor reported a GAAP operating loss of $38.3 million and a Non-GAAP operating loss of $11.3 million. While these figures showed progress compared to the previous year, they indicate ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.
**4. UBS Initiates Neutral Rating Citing Supply Issues.**
On November 10, 2025, UBS resumed its coverage of Indie Semiconductor with a "Neutral" rating and set a price target of $5.00. The analyst firm noted that the company's earnings fell short of expectations due to supply issues that impacted its December revenue guidance.
**5. General Stock Volatility.**
Indie Semiconductor's share price has experienced notable volatility over the three months leading up to December 2025 when compared to the broader U.S. market. This inherent volatility can contribute to fluctuations such as the reported -4% movement within the specified period.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| INDI Return | - | - | -51% | 39% | -50% | -5% | -68% |
| Peers Return | 46% | 48% | -27% | 47% | 4% | 65% | 302% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| INDI Win Rate | - | 67% | 42% | 58% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 53% | 32% | 52% | 40% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| INDI Max Drawdown | - | - | -56% | -19% | -61% | -60% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -3% | -41% | -2% | -7% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: Q, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, TER.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | INDI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -70.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 233.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to Q, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, TER
In The Past
Indie Semiconductor's stock fell -70.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/17/2021. A -70.0% loss requires a 233.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to INDI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Indie Semiconductor
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 177.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 159.7 |
| Rev LTM | 8,449 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,047 |
| FCF LTM | 2,265 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,413 |
| CFO LTM | 2,582 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,737 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 29.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 159.7 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| P/EBIT | 25.3 |
| P/E | 29.1 |
| P/CFO | 26.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 63.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 66.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 69.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 158.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 54.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 52.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 64.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 93.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8112023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
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