Humana (HUM)


Market Price (9/13/2026): $409.0 | Market Cap: $49.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Managed Health Care

Humana (HUM)


Market Price (9/13/2026): $409.0
Market Cap: $49.1 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Managed Health Care

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -20%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.0 Bil

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 2.5 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Telehealth Platforms, Show more.

Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 38x

Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 150%

Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 122%

Key risks
HUM key risks include [1] a significant and financially impactful decline in its Medicare Advantage Star Ratings, Show more.

0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -20%
1 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.0 Bil
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 2.5 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Telehealth Platforms, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 38x
8 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 150%
9 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 122%
10 Key risks
HUM key risks include [1] a significant and financially impactful decline in its Medicare Advantage Star Ratings, Show more.

HUM in ETFs

Weight = HUM's share of each fund

SPY0.07%
VOO0.07%
IVV0.07%
VTI0.06%
ITOT0.07%
IWB0.07%
RSP0.21%
VTV0.16%
+29 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 9/1/2026

Humana (HUM) stock has gained about 35% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Humana reported stronger-than-expected financial results for its fiscal second quarter ended June 30, 2026. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.61 surpassed the consensus estimate of $7.27 by $0.34. Additionally, quarterly revenue increased 26.2% year-over-year to $40.89 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $40.58 billion.

2. The company affirmed its full-year 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance of at least $9.00. This reaffirmation, despite a downward revision in GAAP EPS guidance, signaled management's confidence in Humana's core operating performance and future profitability for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026.

Show more
Updated on 9/1/2026

Humana (HUM) stock has gained about 35% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Humana reported stronger-than-expected financial results for its fiscal second quarter ended June 30, 2026. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.61 surpassed the consensus estimate of $7.27 by $0.34. Additionally, quarterly revenue increased 26.2% year-over-year to $40.89 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $40.58 billion.

2. The company affirmed its full-year 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance of at least $9.00. This reaffirmation, despite a downward revision in GAAP EPS guidance, signaled management's confidence in Humana's core operating performance and future profitability for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026.

3. Humana demonstrated robust growth in its individual Medicare Advantage (MA) membership and strategic market expansion. The company affirmed an expected individual MA membership growth of approximately 25 percent over 2025 for fiscal year 2026, driven by new sales and improved retention from its customer-led benefit strategy. Furthermore, Humana expanded its MA plan offerings to 46 states and Washington D.C., covering 85% of U.S. counties, and introduced new plan types in four states and 177 counties for 2026.

4. The company announced a strategic divestiture of its minority interest in Gentiva. On June 10, 2026, Humana signed an agreement to divest its stake in Gentiva, a hospice and palliative care provider, for approximately $900 million. This move indicates a focus on optimizing its portfolio and concentrating on core healthcare services.

5. Several analysts upgraded Humana's stock or raised their price targets following the positive Q2 2026 earnings report and strategic announcements. For example, Leerink Partners upgraded Humana from "market perform" to "outperform" with a $513.00 price objective, and Barclays increased its target price from $344.00 to $407.00. This positive reassessment by the financial community contributed to the stock's upward trend.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 34.5% change in HUM stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 18.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)53120269122026Change
Stock Price ($)304.70409.8034.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)137,200145,6796.2%
Net Income Margin (%)0.8%0.9%6.6%
P/E Multiple32.438.518.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1201200.2%
Cumulative Contribution34.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2026 to 9/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
HUM34.5% 
Market (SPY)1.0%18.0%
Sector (XLV)10.6%16.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 116.7% change in HUM stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 100.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)22820269122026Change
Stock Price ($)189.13409.80116.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)129,664145,67912.4%
Net Income Margin (%)0.9%0.9%-4.2%
P/E Multiple19.238.5100.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1201200.2%
Cumulative Contribution116.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2026 to 9/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
HUM116.7% 
Market (SPY)11.7%20.5%
Sector (XLV)3.6%16.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 36.9% change in HUM stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 68.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120259122026Change
Stock Price ($)299.34409.8036.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)123,110145,67918.3%
Net Income Margin (%)1.3%0.9%-31.4%
P/E Multiple22.938.568.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1211200.4%
Cumulative Contribution36.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 9/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
HUM36.9% 
Market (SPY)19.5%14.0%
Sector (XLV)21.9%19.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -7.9% change in HUM stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -74.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)83120239122026Change
Stock Price ($)445.17409.80-7.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)98,727145,67947.6%
Net Income Margin (%)3.4%0.9%-74.3%
P/E Multiple16.438.5134.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1251203.8%
Cumulative Contribution-7.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2023 to 9/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
HUM-7.9% 
Market (SPY)75.7%12.8%
Sector (XLV)30.0%29.6%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
HUM Return14%11%-10%-44%2%58%3%
Peers Return39%11%-7%-18%4%25%53%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%11%102%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HUM Win Rate42%67%42%25%50%56% 
Peers Win Rate55%55%42%50%58%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%44% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HUM Max Drawdown-18%-22%-21%-50%-28%-42% 
Peers Max Drawdown-17%-18%-23%-31%-41%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: UNH, ELV, CVS, CI, CNC. See HUM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/11/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventHUMS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-15.0%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven17.7%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven77 days79 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-15.0%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven17.6%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven75 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-22.0%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven28.2%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven103 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-43.4%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven76.5%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven38 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-18.8%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven23.1%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven316 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-17.0%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven20.5%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven119 days62 days

Compare to UNH, ELV, CVS, CI, CNC

In The Past

Humana's stock fell -15.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventHUMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-22.0%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven28.2%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven103 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-43.4%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven76.5%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven38 days140 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-75.5%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven307.6%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven782 days1085 days

Compare to UNH, ELV, CVS, CI, CNC

In The Past

Humana's stock fell -15.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Humana (HUM)

Humana Inc. is a leading health and well-being company operating across the United States. Its primary business involves offering a wide array of medical and supplemental benefit plans. A significant part of its operations focuses on serving individuals, particularly through Medicare Advantage and supplemental plans, and it contracts with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to administer programs for those with limited incomes. Additionally, Humana partners with various states to provide Medicaid, dual eligible, and long-term support services.

Beyond government-sponsored programs, Humana extends its services to commercial markets. It offers fully insured medical and specialty health insurance benefits, including dental, vision, and other supplemental health plans, to individuals and employer groups. The company also provides administrative services only (ASO) products and manages health benefits for military personnel through contracts such as TRICARE.

To deliver a more integrated healthcare experience, Humana also operates a Healthcare Services segment. This segment provides essential support services like pharmacy solutions, direct provider services, and home-based care (e.g., home health). These offerings are available to its health plan members and, in some cases, to third parties, aiming to enhance the overall health and well-being of its diverse customer base.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Humana is like UnitedHealth Group, providing a wide array of health insurance plans and healthcare services across the U.S., with a strong focus on Medicare.

Humana is like Aetna (now part of CVS Health), operating as a major independent health insurance provider with a significant national presence.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Individual Medical & Supplemental Benefit Plans: Offers medical and supplemental health insurance plans directly to individuals.
  • Medicare & Medicaid Plans: Provides various government-sponsored health plans, including Medicare Advantage, Prescription Drug Plans, Medicaid, and dual-eligible plans.
  • Commercial Group Health Plans: Delivers fully insured medical and specialty health insurance benefits, such as dental and vision, to employer groups.
  • Administrative Services Only (ASO): Provides administrative services for self-funded health plans to individuals and employer groups.
  • Military Healthcare Services: Administers healthcare benefits, notably through contracts like TRICARE, for military members and their families.
  • Pharmacy Solutions: Offers pharmacy benefit management and related services.
  • Provider Services: Provides various services to healthcare providers.
  • Home Solutions: Delivers in-home health services and other support to members.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Humana (symbol: HUM) primarily serves individuals by providing health and well-being benefit plans and services. While the company contracts with government entities and employer groups, these agreements are ultimately to serve a large population of individual members. Based on the company description, its major customer categories are:

  • Medicare Beneficiaries: Individuals eligible for Medicare who enroll in Humana's Medicare Advantage plans, Medicare Prescription Drug Plans (Part D), or those covered under the Limited Income Newly Eligible Transition (LI-NET) prescription drug plan program administered by Humana for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).
  • Medicaid and Dual Eligible Individuals: Individuals who qualify for state-sponsored Medicaid programs, including those eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid (dual eligibles), for whom Humana provides managed care and long-term support services under contracts with various states.
  • Commercial and Employer Group Members: Individuals who receive health insurance benefits (medical, dental, vision, and other supplemental health benefits) through their employers' group plans with Humana, or who purchase individual commercial plans directly. This category also includes military personnel and their families covered under contracts like the TRICARE T2017 East Region.

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The following are major suppliers to Humana:

  • Microsoft (MSFT)
  • Cognizant (CTSH)
  • IBM (IBM)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here is the requested information for Humana's management team:

Jim Rechtin, President and Chief Executive Officer

Jim Rechtin joined Humana in January 2024, initially serving as President and Chief Operating Officer before assuming the role of Chief Executive Officer in July 2024. He brings a strong combination of operational, industry, M&A, and CEO expertise, focusing on improving health outcomes, driving lower costs, enhancing quality, and providing a personalized member and patient experience. Prior to Humana, Rechtin was the President and CEO of Envision Healthcare. Before Envision, he served as President of OptumCare, part of UnitedHealth Group, and was also with DaVita Medical Group, holding roles as Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy and President of DaVita Medical Group's California market. Envision Healthcare was a private equity-backed company.

Celeste Mellet, Chief Financial Officer

Celeste Mellet was appointed Humana's Chief Financial Officer, effective January 11, 2025. Before joining Humana, Mellet served as Partner and Chief Financial Officer at Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), a leading infrastructure fund manager that was acquired by BlackRock. Prior to GIP, she was Evercore's Chief Financial Officer, a Senior Managing Director, and an Executive Vice President from 2021 to 2023. Her experience also includes serving as Fannie Mae's Executive Vice President and CFO, where she was responsible for corporate strategy and financial management functions. Mellet is known for her experience in navigating dynamic and highly regulated industries and her track record of driving improved performance within complex organizations.

Michelle O'Hara, Chief Human Resources Officer

Michelle O'Hara joined Humana in January 2025 as Chief Human Resources Officer. In this role, she leads the company's enterprise talent strategy and people programs. O'Hara is a member of the Enterprise Leadership Team and reports to President and CEO Jim Rechtin. Before coming to Humana, she spent 15 years at Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), where her most recent position was Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer from 2019 to 2025.

David Dintenfass, President, Enterprise Growth

David Dintenfass joined Humana in February 2024 as President, Enterprise Growth. He is responsible for leading the company's growth strategy, with a focus on customer acquisition, retention, and experience. Dintenfass is an experienced general management, marketing, and sales executive, with over 30 years of experience across consumer banking, wealth and asset management, and consumer-packaged goods.

Sanjay Shetty, MD, President, CenterWell

Sanjay Shetty, MD, serves as President of CenterWell. CenterWell is Humana's healthcare services brand, focused on delivering integrated care.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Here are the key risks to Humana's business:

  1. Reliance on Government Contracts and Regulatory Changes: A significant portion of Humana's revenue is derived from government contracts, particularly Medicare and Medicaid. This makes the company highly vulnerable to changes in government policies, reimbursement rates, and regulatory environments, especially concerning Medicare Advantage (MA) and Prescription Drug Plans (PDPs). For example, a decline in Medicare Advantage Star Ratings for 2025 is projected to negatively impact 2026 quality bonus payments from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), potentially affecting revenues, operating results, and cash flows. Humana is even engaged in a lawsuit challenging its 2025 Star Ratings. Furthermore, regulatory uncertainty regarding MA reimbursement rates remains a significant concern, and the company anticipates losing a substantial number of Medicare Advantage members in 2025 due to strategic cuts of unprofitable plans.
  2. Medical Cost Inflation and Inability to Manage Costs: Humana faces substantial risk from the rising cost of medical services, including increased utilization of facilities, services, prescription drugs, and the introduction of new or costly treatments. Failure to accurately price its products or adequately estimate future benefit payments, or to effectively manage operating expenses, could materially and adversely affect its financial performance and profitability. The company's profits in 2024 were significantly impacted by higher-than-expected spending on members' care in Medicare and Medicaid, and elevated medical costs have put continuous pressure on its medical care ratio.
  3. Intense Competition: Humana operates in a highly competitive healthcare industry. Many competitors, including other large health insurance companies and emerging players, possess larger market shares or greater financial resources in various markets. This intense competition challenges Humana's ability to maintain and expand its market share, particularly within the Medicare program, and can impact its pricing flexibility and growth potential.
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The entry and expansion of major technology companies into direct healthcare service provision and potentially alternative health benefit models. Companies like Amazon, with acquisitions such as One Medical (primary care) and PillPack (pharmacy), are building integrated healthcare ecosystems that could offer simplified, tech-driven health solutions directly to consumers and employers, potentially bypassing or significantly competing with traditional health insurers and service providers like Humana in areas such as pharmacy solutions, provider services, and home solutions.

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Addressable Markets for Humana's Main Products and Services

Humana Inc. operates in various segments of the U.S. health and well-being market. The addressable market sizes for its main products and services are as follows:

Retail Segment

  • Medical and Supplemental Benefit Plans to Individuals (primarily Medicare Advantage): The U.S. Medicare Advantage market had an enrollment of 34.1 million beneficiaries in 2025, representing 54% of all eligible Medicare individuals in the U.S.. Enrollment further increased to 35.4 million beneficiaries in 2026. The global Medicare Advantage market size, which is primarily concentrated in the U.S., was estimated at approximately USD 445.97 billion in 2025 and is projected to expand to USD 1.06 trillion by 2034.
  • Individual Health Insurance (broader market including public and private plans): The U.S. individual health insurance market was valued at USD 1.60 trillion in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 1.68 trillion in 2023. This market is projected to grow to USD 2.54 trillion by 2030.

Group and Specialty Segment

  • Commercial Fully Insured Medical and Specialty Health Insurance Benefits: Enrollment in fully insured large group plans in the U.S. declined to approximately 38 million in 2023, while fully insured small group plans saw enrollment decline to about 10 million in 2023. Overall, employer-sponsored insurance held a 49.33% market share in the U.S. health and medical insurance market in 2025.
  • Medicaid Benefits: U.S. Medicaid managed care organization spending totaled USD 457 billion in 2023. As of March 2025, the national Medicaid managed care market included 66 million enrollees.
  • TRICARE Services: TRICARE serves approximately 9.5 million beneficiaries worldwide. In 2024, this included 2.433 million Medicare-Eligible beneficiaries.

Healthcare Services Segment

  • Pharmacy Solutions (Pharmacy Benefit Management - PBM): The U.S. pharmacy benefit management market was valued at USD 587.4 billion in 2024 and USD 638.0 billion in 2025. It was also valued at USD 432.30 billion in 2023 and is expected to be worth around USD 921.52 billion by 2035. PBMs manage pharmacy benefits for over 266 million Americans.
  • Home Solutions Services (Home Health): The U.S. home healthcare market was estimated at USD 162.35 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 381.40 billion by 2033. Another estimate places the market size at USD 222.61 billion in 2025, predicted to reach around USD 692.30 billion by 2035.

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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Humana (HUM) over the next 2-3 years:

  1. Medicare Advantage (MA) Membership Growth and Strategic Market Expansion: Humana anticipates continued growth in its Medicare Advantage membership, driven by strategic expansion into new counties. For example, Humana is expanding its MA plans to 226 new counties for 2025, aiming to cover 89% of U.S. counties across 48 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico. This expansion, along with efforts to improve member retention, is expected to drive revenue growth.
  2. Expansion and Performance of CenterWell Businesses: The CenterWell segment, which includes senior-focused primary care, pharmacy solutions, and home solutions, is a significant expected driver of revenue. CenterWell Senior Primary Care is projected to see substantial patient growth, with an increase of 100,600 patients, or over 25%, in 2025, including approximately 32,000 patients from the acquisition of The Villages Health. CenterWell Pharmacy is also experiencing strong growth due to increased specialty volumes and direct-to-consumer sales.
  3. Growth in Medicaid Business and State-Based Contracts: Humana is expanding its Medicaid footprint and securing new state-based contracts. This includes preparing for the January 1, 2026, launch of new programs like the Michigan Highly Integrated Dual Eligible Special Needs Plan (HIDE SNP) and the statewide Illinois Fully Integrated Dual Eligible Special Needs Plan (FIDE) programs, as well as integrating dual eligibles into the South Carolina Medicaid program. This expansion is a key component of the company's long-term strategy and revenue generation.
  4. Optimizing Existing Business through Pricing Actions and Operational Efficiency: Humana is focused on initiatives to improve member and patient outcomes, enhance operational efficiency, and better manage medical spending, which are expected to lead to more profitable membership growth and margin recovery, indirectly supporting revenue growth. This includes higher per-member Medicare and state-based contract premiums. The company is evaluating MA pricing actions and expects earnings growth in other lines of business through ongoing productivity and trend-mitigation initiatives.

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Share Repurchases

  • Humana's annual share repurchases were $1.573 billion in 2023 and $817 million in 2024.
  • In 2025, Humana repurchased $151 million in shares, with $109 million occurring in the first nine months.
  • As of July 29, 2025, the company had a remaining share repurchase authorization of $2.83 billion.

Share Issuance

  • Humana issued $1.5 billion in senior notes in March 2025, which contributed to an increase in its debt-to-total capitalization.

Outbound Investments

  • Humana, in partnership with private equity firm Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe (WCAS), initiated a second joint venture to invest $1.2 billion in approximately 100 new CenterWell Senior Primary Care clinics between 2023 and 2025.
  • This expansion built upon a previous $800 million joint venture with WCAS to open 67 clinics by early 2023.
  • In 2025, Humana's growth in CenterWell Senior Primary Care included approximately 32,000 patients associated with the acquisition of The Villages Health.

Capital Expenditures

  • Humana's projected capital expenditures for 2025 were approximately $650 million.
  • Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are also approximately $650 million.
  • A primary focus of these expenditures is on funding growth and investment in the Medicare Advantage business, expanding Healthcare Services capabilities, and developing CenterWell Senior Primary Care clinics.

Peer Outperformance in Managed Health Care

HUM has trailed 57% of its 7 Managed Health Care peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is HQY. Managed Health Care ranks 2nd of 10 industries in Health Care by median 5Y return. That makes it one of the strongest corners of the sector.
Share of Managed Health Care constituents that HUM has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
57%
of 7 industry peers · 50.4% return
3Y
29%
of 7 industry peers · -10.1% return
5Y
43%
of 7 industry peers · 5.3% return
Managed Health Care peers with revenue growth within 4pp of HUM's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
HUM Humana 13.9% 38.5x 50.4%-10.1%5.3%
HQY HealthEquity 13.3% 33.9x 4.1%37.2%49.9% +45pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Health Care sector, ranked by 5Y. Managed Health Care is HUM's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Health Care Distributors 7 7.1%86.6%123.6% CAH 394% · MCK 338% · COR 174%
Managed Health Care ← 8 43.7%-1.7%5.5% OSCR 92% · HQY 50% · ELV 22%
Health Care Services 20 18.9%44.9%-1.2% HIMS 210% · RDNT 167% · DGX 68%
Health Care Facilities 24 3.7%8.8%-15.4% NHC 274% · THC 258% · ENSG 119%
Health Care Equipment 50 -1.7%-5.7%-25.4% POCI 10800% · UFPT 324% · GKOS 233%
Health Care Supplies 12 20.8%-12.4%-38.0% LNTH 300% · HAE 51% · MMSI 21%
Pharmaceuticals 62 -7.4%7.5%-41.2% LQDA 2363% · INDV 1136% · ETON 1026%
Life Sciences Tools & Services 109 -1.4%-26.6%-71.9% SNWV 1573% · MEDP 217% · NTRA 174%
Health Care Technology 20 -31.7%-51.5%-79.2% SPOK 79% · HSTM 2% · VEEV -12%
Biotechnology 361 1.6%-25.2%-79.6% DNTH 1596% · CELZ 1272% · ELVN 1178%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HUMUNHELVCVSCICNCMedian
NameHumana UnitedHe.Elevance.CVS Heal.Cigna Centene  
Mkt Price409.80379.09418.7294.66280.7666.42329.92
Mkt Cap49.2341.990.9121.173.832.882.3
Rev LTM145,679450,129201,113415,086281,336202,938242,137
Op Inc LTM-21,676-14,0138,9111,61611,462
FCF LTM1,94923,6176,28911,7589,1138,9519,032
FCF 3Y Avg-22218,3654,1497,2707,0064,0975,577
CFO LTM2,53927,0177,46414,78010,2779,74910,013
CFO 3Y Avg40821,8585,32810,1408,3224,8126,825

Growth & Margins

HUMUNHELVCVSCICNCMedian
NameHumana UnitedHe.Elevance.CVS Heal.Cigna Centene  
Rev Chg LTM18.3%6.5%6.3%7.4%7.7%13.9%7.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.9%8.9%6.7%7.0%131.9%11.2%10.0%
Rev Chg Q26.2%0.4%1.4%7.3%6.7%9.9%7.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.2%0.1%0.3%1.8%1.6%2.4%1.7%
Op Inc Chg LTM--29.5%-38.3%8.8%-18.0%-4.6%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg--9.5%-0.8%589.9%-20.9%-4.4%
Op Mgn LTM-4.8%-3.4%3.2%0.8%3.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-6.8%-3.1%3.3%1.3%3.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%-0.5%0.1%0.8%0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM1.7%6.0%3.7%3.6%3.7%4.8%3.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg0.1%5.1%2.8%2.6%3.3%2.5%2.7%
FCF/Rev LTM1.3%5.2%3.1%2.8%3.2%4.4%3.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.4%4.3%2.1%1.8%2.8%2.2%2.1%

Valuation

HUMUNHELVCVSCICNCMedian
NameHumana UnitedHe.Elevance.CVS Heal.Cigna Centene  
Mkt Cap49.2341.990.9121.173.832.882.3
P/S0.30.80.50.30.30.20.3
P/Op Inc-15.8-8.68.320.312.2
P/EBIT20.716.012.413.67.3-8.213.0
P/E38.524.218.324.811.5-6.421.3
P/CFO19.412.712.28.27.23.410.2
Total Yield3.5%6.5%7.1%6.9%10.9%-15.5%6.7%
Dividend Yield0.9%2.4%1.7%2.8%2.2%0.0%1.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.4%5.5%4.7%7.2%8.5%12.9%6.3%
D/E0.30.20.30.60.40.50.4
Net D/E-0.20.1-0.10.50.3-0.30.0

Returns

HUMUNHELVCVSCICNCMedian
NameHumana UnitedHe.Elevance.CVS Heal.Cigna Centene  
1M Rtn6.4%-5.0%5.6%-0.3%1.6%0.6%1.1%
3M Rtn8.3%-6.7%4.1%-6.6%-5.3%1.9%-1.7%
6M Rtn149.6%35.2%44.8%26.2%6.3%92.8%40.0%
12M Rtn50.4%10.4%37.0%30.3%-5.2%99.7%33.6%
3Y Rtn-10.1%-16.4%-0.7%51.1%4.3%-2.8%-1.7%
1M Excs Rtn6.6%-5.4%6.5%1.1%3.0%0.2%2.0%
3M Excs Rtn7.9%-9.5%1.8%-8.8%-7.8%1.0%-3.4%
6M Excs Rtn137.5%22.9%31.9%11.6%-8.0%77.4%27.4%
12M Excs Rtn34.7%-5.0%22.0%14.8%-22.3%95.2%18.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-80.1%-87.0%-72.4%-9.4%-63.5%-66.6%-69.5%

Comparison Analyses

null

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Insurance124,563113,764102,85488,84180,930
CenterWell22,47319,93618,40517,30714,058
Eliminations/Corporate-17,372-15,939-14,885-13,278-11,924
Total129,664117,761106,37492,87083,064


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20152014201320122011
CenterWell981739549  
Retail9301,0981,2831,1621,587
Group258    
Eliminations/ Corporate238  29-31
Other Businesses2478-193-1984
Eliminations -59-40  
Employer Group 314322253242
Health and Well-Being Services   486353
Total2,4312,1701,9211,9112,235


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$409.80 
Market Cap ($ Bil)49.2 
First Trading Date12/31/1981 
Distance from 52W High0.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$389.03$282.24
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA5.3%45.2%
 3M1YR
Volatility34.0%47.3%
Downside Capture57.4041.30
Upside Capture88.2981.35
Correlation (SPY)19.7%14.4%
HUM Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.230.520.490.600.520.36
Up Beta-1.16-0.26-0.580.010.200.33
Down Beta0.440.850.420.810.690.41
Up Capture118%41%148%162%54%8%
Bmk +ve Days10213268138427
Stock +ve Days12223978143408
Down Capture62%120%38%-3%53%67%
Bmk -ve Days11213259113324
Stock -ve Days9202549108342

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with HUM
HUM52.2%47.1%1.04-
Sector ETF (XLV)22.1%16.2%1.0420.6%
Equity (SPY)18.3%12.8%1.0314.7%
Gold (GLD)19.0%29.2%0.59-3.5%
Commodities (DBC)48.3%20.6%1.803.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)7.6%13.6%0.2911.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-32.4%43.8%-0.778.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with HUM
HUM0.7%37.9%0.11-
Sector ETF (XLV)5.5%15.2%0.1836.1%
Equity (SPY)12.5%17.2%0.5518.8%
Gold (GLD)18.7%18.8%0.81-3.1%
Commodities (DBC)11.4%19.5%0.46-1.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)0.7%18.9%-0.0715.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)9.4%52.6%0.3610.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with HUM
HUM9.6%34.6%0.36-
Sector ETF (XLV)10.4%16.7%0.5050.0%
Equity (SPY)15.2%17.9%0.7237.1%
Gold (GLD)12.3%16.3%0.62-1.5%
Commodities (DBC)8.7%18.1%0.399.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.7%20.7%0.1930.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)63.2%66.2%1.039.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date8312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3.1 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 8152026-7.4%
Average Daily Volume1.0 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.1 days
Basic Shares Quantity120.1 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.6%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 9/1/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/29/2026-6.0%-6.8%0.6%
4/29/20265.8%4.3%34.4%
2/11/2026-3.3%3.2%-9.7%
11/5/2025-6.0%-13.6%-8.5%
7/30/202512.4%9.4%27.8%
4/30/20251.1%-2.9%-11.3%
2/11/2025-3.5%-3.6%-6.6%
10/30/20243.3%1.1%15.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131211
# Negative111213
Median Positive2.7%3.4%3.7%
Median Negative-5.7%-6.0%-7.8%
Max Positive12.4%10.8%34.4%
Max Negative-11.7%-13.6%-13.0%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/29/2026-6.0%-6.8%0.6%
4/29/20265.8%4.3%34.4%
2/11/2026-3.3%3.2%-9.7%
11/5/2025-6.0%-13.6%-8.5%
7/30/202512.4%9.4%27.8%
4/30/20251.1%-2.9%-11.3%
2/11/2025-3.5%-3.6%-6.6%
10/30/20243.3%1.1%15.1%
7/31/2024-10.6%-12.2%-12.9%
4/24/2024-3.7%-7.9%8.7%
1/25/2024-11.7%-6.0%-9.8%
11/1/2023-6.6%-4.9%-7.4%
8/2/20235.6%7.7%3.7%
4/26/20230.8%6.3%1.0%
2/1/20230.3%-6.0%-3.1%
11/2/20220.9%0.6%-1.1%
7/27/2022-2.8%-2.8%0.7%
4/27/20223.0%0.8%3.3%
2/2/20222.7%10.8%11.6%
11/3/20210.5%-1.5%-7.8%
7/28/2021-5.7%-9.0%-13.0%
4/28/2021-2.3%3.2%-2.2%
2/3/20210.8%1.5%3.1%
11/3/20203.6%3.5%-0.7%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131211
# Negative111213
Median Positive2.7%3.4%3.7%
Median Negative-5.7%-6.0%-7.8%
Max Positive12.4%10.8%34.4%
Max Negative-11.7%-13.6%-13.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/29/202610-Q
03/31/202604/29/202610-Q
12/31/202502/19/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202507/30/202510-Q
03/31/202504/30/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202407/31/202410-Q
03/31/202404/24/202410-Q
12/31/202302/15/202410-K
09/30/202311/01/202310-Q
06/30/202308/02/202310-Q
03/31/202304/26/202310-Q
12/31/202202/16/202310-K
09/30/202211/02/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/29/202610-Q
03/31/202604/29/202610-Q
12/31/202502/19/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202507/30/202510-Q
03/31/202504/30/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202407/31/202410-Q
03/31/202404/24/202410-Q
12/31/202302/15/202410-K
09/30/202311/01/202310-Q
06/30/202308/02/202310-Q
03/31/202304/26/202310-Q
12/31/202202/16/202310-K
09/30/202211/02/202210-Q
06/30/202207/27/202210-Q
03/31/202204/27/202210-Q
12/31/202102/17/202210-K
09/30/202111/03/202110-Q
06/30/202107/28/202110-Q
03/31/202104/28/202110-Q
12/31/202002/18/202110-K
09/30/202011/03/202010-Q
06/30/202008/05/202010-Q
03/31/202004/29/202010-Q
12/31/201902/20/202010-K
09/30/201911/06/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/30/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Insurance segment benefit ratioReported0.930.93  0.0%AffirmedGuidance: 0.93 for 2026
2026 Medicare Advantage membership growthReported 25.0%  0.0%AffirmedGuidance: 25.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted EPSReported 9 0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 9 for 2026
2026 GAAP EPSReported 6.52 -22.0% LoweredGuidance: 8.36 for 2026


Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Insurance segment benefit ratioReported0.930.930.93 0.0%Affirmed
2026 Medicare Advantage membership growthReported 25.0%  0.0%AffirmedGuidance: 25.0% for 2026
2026 EPSReported 8.36 -6.0% LoweredGuidance: 8.89 for 2026
2026 Adjusted EPSReported 9 0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 9 for 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Individual Medicare Advantage membership growthReported 25.0%    
2026 GAAP EPSReported 8.89 -27.5% Lower NewActual: 12.3 for 2025
2026 Adjusted EPSReported 9 -47.1% Lower NewActual: 17 for 2025

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 Insurance segment benefit ratioReported0.90.90.91 0.0%AffirmedGuidance: 0.9 for 2025
2025 Individual Medicare Advantage membership declineReported 0.42 Mil -15.0% RaisedGuidance: 0.50 Mil for 2025
2025 GAAP EPSReported 12.3 -11.0% LoweredGuidance: 13.8 for 2025
2025 Adjusted EPSReported 17 0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 17 for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 9/3/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Shetty, Sanjay KPresident, CenterWellDirectBuy2252026185.21810150,0162,158,935Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Shetty, Sanjay KPresident, CenterWellDirectBuy2252026185.21810150,0162,158,935Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Sep 13, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Naya Capital Management UK LTD$288.7 Mil24.4%4ADD +33.9%13F
High Ground Investment Management LLP$88.6 Mil16.4%5Hold13F
Sessa Capital IM, L.P.$646.4 Mil12.3%31ADD +60.8%13F
Redwood Grove Capital, LLC$19.9 Mil6.4%22ADD +8.7%13F
Solel Partners LP$29.4 Mil6.3%19ADD +49.4%13F
Columbus Hill Capital Management, L.P.$15.5 Mil2.6%21TRIM -7.8%13F
Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc.$59.8 Mil1.9%44ADD +99.7%13F
Summit Street Capital Management, LLC$11.6 Mil1.6%31Hold13F
Glenview Capital Management, LLC$58.1 Mil1.6%41New13F
Kopernik Global Investors, LLC$19.7 Mil1.4%27New13F
Avidity Partners Management LP$5.9 Mil1.3%46New13F
Slate Path Capital LP$79.7 Mil1.2%44TRIM -51.8%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Glenview Capital Management, LLC$58.1 Mil1.6%41New13F
Kopernik Global Investors, LLC$19.7 Mil1.4%27New13F
Avidity Partners Management LP$5.9 Mil1.3%46New13F
Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc.$59.8 Mil1.9%44ADD +99.7%13F
Sessa Capital IM, L.P.$646.4 Mil12.3%31ADD +60.8%13F
Solel Partners LP$29.4 Mil6.3%19ADD +49.4%13F
Naya Capital Management UK LTD$288.7 Mil24.4%4ADD +33.9%13F
Redwood Grove Capital, LLC$19.9 Mil6.4%22ADD +8.7%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Owl Creek Asset Management, L.P.$28.4 Mil3.4%30ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Crake Asset Management LLP$8.8 Mil0.3%17ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Slate Path Capital LP$79.7 Mil1.2%44TRIM -51.8%Mar 31, 202613F
Columbus Hill Capital Management, L.P.$15.5 Mil2.6%21TRIM -7.8%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Sessa Capital IM, L.P.$646.4 Mil12.3%31ADD +60.8%13F
Naya Capital Management UK LTD$288.7 Mil24.4%4ADD +33.9%13F
High Ground Investment Management LLP$88.6 Mil16.4%5Hold13F
Slate Path Capital LP$79.7 Mil1.2%44TRIM -51.8%13F
Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc.$59.8 Mil1.9%44ADD +99.7%13F
Glenview Capital Management, LLC$58.1 Mil1.6%41New13F
Solel Partners LP$29.4 Mil6.3%19ADD +49.4%13F
Redwood Grove Capital, LLC$19.9 Mil6.4%22ADD +8.7%13F
Kopernik Global Investors, LLC$19.7 Mil1.4%27New13F
Columbus Hill Capital Management, L.P.$15.5 Mil2.6%21TRIM -7.8%13F
Summit Street Capital Management, LLC$11.6 Mil1.6%31Hold13F
Avidity Partners Management LP$5.9 Mil1.3%46New13F

HUM Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

Neutral / Watch

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Humana is executing a difficult but necessary pivot from aggressive growth to margin recovery. While recent market share gains are impressive, the core insurance business operated at below-breakeven margins. The investment case now rests entirely on management's ability to restore profitability by 2028, a multi-year process with significant execution risk that requires observation.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Recurring Revenue (Regulated)

Number of Members x Average Premium Per Member Managing the Medical Loss Ratio (the percentage of premiums spent on care) and leveraging administrative costs over a growing member base.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can management convert record member growth into sustainable profit?

Evidence suggests a credible, multi-year plan is in place to restore profitability after a period of aggressive, margin-negative growth.

Mechanism: By adjusting benefits and exiting unprofitable plans, management aims to lift pretax margins toward its 3% target by 2028, leveraging its newly acquired scale for operating efficiency.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Individual Medicare Advantage membership grew 23.4% year-over-year.
  • Management is targeting a sustainable pretax margin of at least 3% in 2028.
  • The consolidated operating cost ratio decreased 120 basis points YoY in Q2 2026.
  • Management affirmed its 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance with a midpoint of $9.00.
  • A virtual investor update to discuss progress is scheduled for December 10.
PRIMARY RISK
Margin recovery proves too costly.

The benefit reductions required to fix margins could trigger a membership exodus far greater than the planned 600,000 exits, proving the business model is uncompetitive.

Mechanism: A failure to show progress on the 2027 benefit ratio alongside a sharp decline in member retention.
Supporting Evidence:
  • The consolidated benefit ratio rose to 91.1% in the most recent quarter.
  • 2026 individual MA margins were initially guided to be 'slightly below breakeven'.
  • Free cash flow margin trails peer UnitedHealth's 5.2% significantly.
  • Medical cost trends continue to outpace government program funding.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Individual Medicare Advantage Membership Growth6,453,700 members as of June 30, 2026 - Turning aroundMembership growth has sharply accelerated, reversing a 7.3% decline in the prior full year (2025). Management noted in a February 2026 earnings call that retention improved over 500 basis points year-over-year and that over 70% of new sales were switchers from competitors. The company's CEO stated in a July 2026 call that the 2026 member growth trajectory is on track.
Insurance Segment Benefit Ratio91.2% for the three months ended June 30, 2026 - DeceleratingManagement stated in a July 2026 call that cost trends are in line with expectations, with some favorability in the inpatient space.
Benefit Ratio91.1% (Q2 2026)Represents medical costs as a percentage of premium revenue. A lower ratio indicates better underwriting profitability and cost control.
Operating Cost Ratio9.8% (Q2 2026)Measures administrative spending efficiency. A lower ratio indicates better operational leverage and cost management.
Individual MA Members in Value-Based Relationships4,118,700 (64% of total) (as of June 30, 2026)Indicates the penetration of the company's core integrated care delivery strategy, which is designed to improve health outcomes and lower costs.
Core Investment Debate

Growth vs. Profit: A Necessary Pivot or a Fatal Flaw?

BULL VIEW

Bulls believe the 23.4% membership growth provides the necessary scale to achieve operating leverage, and that management can surgically prune unprofitable plans to reach its 3% margin target by 2028.

CORE TENSION

Can massive 23.4% membership growth offset a deteriorating 91.1% benefit ratio, a tension that caused a -6.0% post-earnings stock decline?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
NEUTRAL

The latest evidence favors a cautious stance. Management has delivered on growth promises but has only just begun the difficult, multi-year process of restoring margins. Execution risk remains high.

BEAR VIEW

Bears argue the growth was bought with unsustainably rich benefits, and the attempt to restore margins will reveal a permanent inability to compete profitably with more efficient rivals.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
10/9/2026 - 10/28/2026
Peer Cost Trend Read-Throughs
Watch: Peer commentary on Medicare Advantage and commercial cost trends, particularly any deviation from the 'in-line' or 'stabilizing' narrative.
10/19/2026
Elevance Health Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Elevance Health (ELV) is scheduled to report earnings.
10/27/2026
CVS Health Earnings Report
Watch: Peer CVS Health (CVS) is scheduled to report earnings.
11/6/2026
Margin and Membership Outlook
Watch: Updates on 2027 margin targets, expected membership retention from exited plans, and initial AEP (Annual Enrollment Period) observations.
November 27, 2026
Quarterly Dividend Payment
Watch: A cash dividend of $0.885 per share is payable to stockholders.
December 10
Investor Day Disappointment
Watch: Any wavering on the 2028 margin target or a less confident tone on achieving top-quartile Bonus Year '28 Stars results.
No set date
Priced-In Volatility Realization
Watch: Any negative news catalyst could trigger an outsized stock move, as the market is already pricing in a high degree of uncertainty.
December 10
Virtual Investor Update
Watch: Management will host a virtual investor update to discuss progress towards Investor Day commitments.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-09-02
Quarterly Dividend Declared
Details: On September 2, 2026, the Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.885 per share, payable on November 27, 2026.
+2.9%
$394.88 -> $406.52
2026-08-20
New Chief Medical Officer
Details: On August 20, 2026, the company named Dr. Shantanu Nundy as Chief Medical Officer to help shape product design, platforms, and the use of AI.
+0.2%
$378.02 -> $378.88
2026-08-10
New Medicaid President Hired
Details: On August 10, 2026, the company announced James P. Holland would join as President of Medicaid, leading a business serving over 1.6 million members in 11 states.
-3.2%
$385.00 -> $372.82
2026-07-29
Second Quarter 2026 Results
Details: The company affirmed its full year 2026 adjusted financial guidance but lowered its GAAP EPS guidance midpoint by -22.0%. The stock reacted negatively, falling -6.0% over two days.
-5.7%
$388.71 -> $366.66
2026-05-18
Analyst Rating Upgrade
Details: An analyst note reported on May 18, 2026, upgraded the stock to Buy, citing improved CMS rate decisions and a target for a sustainable 3%+ Medicare Advantage margin by 2028.
+1.8%
$304.40 -> $309.82
2026-04-29
First Quarter 2026 Results
Details: The company affirmed its full year 2026 adjusted financial guidance. The stock reacted positively, rising 3.0% over two days versus 1.0% for the S&P 500.
+2.9%
$229.18 -> $235.88
Risk Management
Position Sizing

2% - 4%

REDUCED POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: HUM trades at roughly 58% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (4.3x the market), around the 95th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
UNH - UnitedHealth
Best-in-Class Operator

UnitedHealth offers superior scale, with revenue 3.1 times Humana's, and significantly higher profitability, including a 4.4% free-cash-flow margin versus Humana's 3%.

Core Thesis: A more stable investment in the managed care space, demonstrating consistent execution and best-in-class margins.
CNC - a business partner
Alternative Growth Profile

a business partner has also grown rapidly but with a substantially better free cash flow margin of 4.4%, suggesting a more durable model for serving price-sensitive government-sponsored health plan members.

Core Thesis: An investment in a company that has balanced high growth with more resilient profitability metrics.
How Is The Market Pricing HUM?

A Medicare Advantage giant navigating near-term profitability headwinds by enforcing pricing discipline and betting its long-term future on an integrated healthcare services arm, CenterWell.

The company is actively adjusting benefits and exiting unprofitable markets to achieve this. Concurrently, it is aggressively building its CenterWell services segment as a second growth engine. The key question for the next 12 months is whether the company can successfully execute this margin recovery in its insurance book while demonstrating the value of its integrated care strategy.

What will confirm the thesis

What will damage the thesis

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Routine corporate announcements such as 'Great Place to Work' awards, foundation scholarships, or minor collaborations that do not materially impact financials.

Repricing Catalyst

Management will provide an update on December 10.

What HUM Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q1 2026
Insurance
$131.7B TTM (96% of Total)
What It Is

This segment sells Medicare Advantage plans to individuals and employer groups, stand-alone Medicare Prescription Drug Plans (PDPs), and provides services for state-based contracts like Medicaid. It also includes specialty health insurance benefits (dental, vision) and military services under TRICARE contracts.

Who Pays & How

The U.S. federal government (via CMS) pays monthly premiums for Medicare members, and state governments pay for Medicaid members. The government chooses to contract with private insurers like Humana to manage the healthcare of these populations, believing it can lead to better health outcomes and cost savings.

Premiums are typically fixed on a per-member-per-month basis for a one-year contract term. Rates for Medicare products are determined through an annual competitive bidding process submitted to CMS.
Competition
UnitedHealth (UNH)
UnitedHealth is significantly larger, with trailing-twelve-month revenue 3.1 times that of Humana, and has higher operating and free-cash-flow margins.
Humana's moat is its established national presence in the Medicare market, its large network of contracted healthcare providers which allows for cost discounts, and its integrated care delivery model designed to improve health outcomes and affordability.
CenterWell
$23.5B TTM (17% of Total)
What It Is

This segment provides pharmacy solutions (mail-order and specialty pharmacy), senior-focused primary care, and home health solutions. These services are provided to Humana's own insurance members (intersegment) as well as to third-party health plans and government fee-for-service Medicare members (external/"payor-agnostic").

Who Pays & How

For external revenue, other health insurance companies and the federal government (for traditional Medicare patients) pay for services to manage patient care, improve outcomes, and lower costs. For intersegment revenue, Humana's Insurance segment pays to provide these integrated services to its own members.

A mix of revenue models including pharmacy product sales, fee-for-service payments for medical care, and value-based arrangements (including capitation) where CenterWell takes on financial risk for patient outcomes.
Competition
The pharmacy business competes with retail drugstore chains, supermarkets, and other mail-order pharmacies. The primary care and home health businesses operate in highly competitive markets.
The segment's moat is its integration with Humana's large insurance membership, which provides scale, and its focus on a value-based, senior-focused care model that aims to be more efficient and produce better outcomes than traditional fee-for-service models.
HUM Evolution: Price Return by Era
2021-2025 · Focused Growth
-35%
2025-Present · Margin Restoration and Strategic Pivot
+62%
In response to regulatory pressures and rising costs, the company shifted its focus from pure growth to margin improvement. This era is characterized by disciplined pricing, exiting unprofitable businesses like Employer Group Commercial Medical Products, and a strategic emphasis on building the integrated care delivery model through the CenterWell segment.
Market Appears To Be Cautiously Supportive
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Decisively outperforming and improving. Potential evidence of active institutional rotation. Volume and momentum show mild positive lean. The accumulation signals present but not yet dominant. Earnings history is mildly supportive. The reaction or drift are positive but not both at full conviction.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+1
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
6 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Trending Up · Golden Cross
2 Momentum Mixed
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Outperformance
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Accumulation
5 Volatility Compressed
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Falling
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars
Core Cache Last Updated: 9/12/2026