Canada Goose (GOOS)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $13.39 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Canada Goose (GOOS)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $13.39Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 15% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 51x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 71% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 51x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 71% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GOOS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the movement of Canada Goose (GOOS) stock between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 8, 2025:
1. Analyst Upgrade by TD Cowen on September 8, 2025
TD Cowen upgraded Canada Goose's stock from "Hold" to "Strong Buy" and increased its price target from $16 to $18, suggesting a potential upside of over 30%. This positive analyst sentiment could have contributed to an upward movement in the stock.
2. Announcement of Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results on November 6, 2025
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. announced its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, which ended September 29, 2025. Earnings announcements are significant events that can cause stock price fluctuations based on the reported performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GOOS Return | -18% | 24% | -52% | -33% | -15% | 39% | -61% |
| Peers Return | 9% | 28% | -27% | 6% | 49% | 26% | 102% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GOOS Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 55% | 33% | 48% | 63% | 66% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GOOS Max Drawdown | -59% | -4% | -60% | -44% | -21% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -5% | -42% | -19% | -12% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GIL, HBI, NKE, TPR, RL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GOOS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -81.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 429.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 143.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 253 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -53.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to GIL, HBI, NKE, TPR, RL
In The Past
Canada Goose's stock fell -81.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -81.1% loss requires a 429.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Canada Goose Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GOOS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.2% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 5.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.2% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 5.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Canada Goose
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 65.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.6 |
| Rev LTM | 5,370 |
| Op Inc LTM | 940 |
| FCF LTM | 668 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 716 |
| CFO LTM | 1,090 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 981 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.6 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 16.9 |
| P/E | 29.0 |
| P/CFO | 19.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 40.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 116.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 9.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 23.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 48.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) | 951 | 807 | 740 | 527 | 525 |
| Wholesale | 312 | 374 | 348 | 322 | 424 |
| Other | 71 | 36 | 10 | 54 | 9 |
| Total | 1,334 | 1,217 | 1,098 | 904 | 958 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) | 387 | 347 | 333 | 233 | 249 |
| Wholesale | 114 | 131 | 111 | 104 | 145 |
| Other | 14 | 10 | -288 | -220 | -202 |
| Corporate expenses | -391 | -342 | |||
| Total | 124 | 148 | 157 | 117 | 192 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 6-K 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 6-K 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5212025 | 20-F 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 6-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5162024 | 20-F 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2012024 | 6-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 6-K 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 6-K 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5182023 | 20-F 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 6-K 1/1/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 6-K 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 6-K 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5192022 | 20-F 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2102022 | 6-K 1/2/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |