Vital Energy (VTLE)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $18.65 | Market Cap: $705.0 MilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Vital Energy (VTLE)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $18.65Market Cap: $705.0 MilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 364% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 19% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -210% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 364% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.4% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -210% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VTLE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Pending Merger with Crescent Energy Company
Vital Energy's stock movement was significantly influenced by its pending merger with Crescent Energy Company. This all-stock transaction, which was nearing a deal by August 22, 2025, and saw the stock trending up by 15.83% on August 25, 2025, aimed to create a premier mid-cap operator and generate increased value for shareholders. A shareholder vote for the merger is anticipated on December 12, 2025.
2. Third-Quarter 2025 Financial Results
On November 3, 2025, Vital Energy reported its third-quarter 2025 financial and operating results. The company recorded a net loss of $353.5 million, primarily due to a non-cash pre-tax impairment loss on oil and gas properties of $420.0 million. However, Vital Energy also reported adjusted net income of $57.6 million, exceeded its total production guidance, and emphasized its focus on operational execution and cost discipline.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VTLE Return | -66% | 205% | -14% | -12% | -32% | -40% | -68% |
| Peers Return | -37% | 91% | 57% | 10% | 1% | 2% | 114% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VTLE Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 68% | 62% | 58% | 50% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VTLE Max Drawdown | -88% | 0% | -18% | -21% | -43% | -58% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -71% | -1% | 0% | -14% | -9% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VTLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -65.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 186.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -88.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 775.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 420 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -86.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 631.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG
In The Past
Vital Energy's stock fell -65.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -65.1% loss requires a 186.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VTLE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.5% | 25.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -5.7% |
| 12312024 | VTLE | Vital Energy | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -46.5% | -39.9% | -58.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.5% | 25.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -5.7% |
| 12312024 | VTLE | Vital Energy | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -46.5% | -39.9% | -58.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Vital Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 93.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.7 |
| Rev LTM | 18,932 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,562 |
| FCF LTM | 2,058 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,769 |
| CFO LTM | 9,476 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,091 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 32.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 51.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 51.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.7 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 7.6 |
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/CFO | 4.7 |
| Total Yield | 12.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -5.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -22.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -83.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3112024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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