HighPeak Energy (HPK)
Market Price (2/16/2026): $5.05 | Market Cap: $630.3 MilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
HighPeak Energy (HPK)
Market Price (2/16/2026): $5.05Market Cap: $630.3 MilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.7% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -99%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -147% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 162% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -30% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7% | |
| Key risksHPK key risks include [1] a stressed financial position with high peer-relative leverage and potential liquidity constraints from upcoming debt repayments, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.7% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -99%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -147% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 162% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -30% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7% |
| Key risksHPK key risks include [1] a stressed financial position with high peer-relative leverage and potential liquidity constraints from upcoming debt repayments, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Declining Oil Prices and Bearish Outlook for the Energy Sector.
HighPeak Energy's stock decline was significantly influenced by a bearish trend in crude oil prices during the fourth quarter of 2025 and into early 2026. NYMEX WTI crude oil prices experienced a notable 19.34% drop in 2025, settling at $57.42 per barrel, while ICE Brent oil futures declined 9.41% in the final three months of 2025. Projections from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in October 2025 indicated a further decline, forecasting Brent crude to fall from an average of $69/bbl in 2025 to $52/bbl in 2026, primarily due to global supply growth outstripping demand. Similarly, the World Bank anticipated Brent crude prices would fall from $68 in 2025 to $60 in 2026, citing an expanding global oil glut. This negative outlook and actual price depreciation for oil, a core commodity for HighPeak Energy, directly pressured the company's revenue and profitability expectations. HighPeak Energy management themselves acknowledged this environment, considering a reduced development plan in 2026 if oil prices remained under $60.
2. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.
HighPeak Energy's third-quarter 2025 financial and operating results, announced on November 5, 2025, were a significant negative catalyst for the stock. The company reported a net loss of $18.3 million for Q3 2025 and missed analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.03 per share, missing FactSet estimates of $0.09, and revenue was $188.9 million, falling short of FactSet's estimate of $210.3 million. This underperformance was attributed to higher-than-anticipated capital expenditures and operating expenses, which overshadowed modest production gains. Operationally, the company saw a 2% quarter-over-quarter decline in total sales volumes and a 7% decline in oil sales volumes during Q3 2025, with its oil cut decreasing from 70% in Q2 2025 to 66%.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.0% change in HPK stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -52.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.61 | 5.09 | -23.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 964 | 882 | -8.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.6% | 6.0% | -52.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.7 | 12.0 | 77.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 124 | 125 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HPK | -23.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.0% | 29.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | 23.3% | 39.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -48.4% change in HPK stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -49.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.86 | 5.09 | -48.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,039 | 882 | -15.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.0% | 6.0% | -49.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.8 | 12.0 | 22.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 124 | 125 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -48.4% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HPK | -48.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.2% | 22.0% |
| Sector (XLE) | 25.7% | 44.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -62.0% change in HPK stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -62.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.38 | 5.09 | -62.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,136 | 882 | -22.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.9% | 6.0% | -62.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.2 | 12.0 | 29.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 125 | 125 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -62.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HPK | -62.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.3% | 45.0% |
| Sector (XLE) | 27.1% | 64.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -81.2% change in HPK stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -82.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.05 | 5.09 | -81.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 596 | 882 | 47.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 34.5% | 6.0% | -82.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.3 | 12.0 | -16.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 109 | 125 | -12.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -81.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HPK | -81.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.0% | 33.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 32.7% | 61.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HPK Return | -7% | 57% | -37% | 4% | -67% | -3% | -70% |
| Peers Return | 193% | 61% | 16% | -1% | -14% | 15% | 432% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HPK Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 33% | 33% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 57% | 55% | 45% | 53% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HPK Max Drawdown | -62% | 0% | -53% | -12% | -71% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -0% | -2% | -15% | -11% | -30% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FANG, PR, SM, OXY, COP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HPK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -71.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 250.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -61.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 161.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -1.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 140 days | 120 days |
Compare to FANG, PR, SM, OXY, COP
In The Past
HighPeak Energy's stock fell -71.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/22/2022. A -71.4% loss requires a 250.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About HighPeak Energy (HPK)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for HighPeak Energy (HPK):
- Like a focused oil and gas driller, akin to a pure-play Diamondback Energy (FANG) or EOG Resources (EOG), but exclusively developing properties in the Permian Basin.
- An independent energy company, similar to Chesapeake Energy (CHK) or Marathon Oil (MRO), but specializing in exploring and producing crude oil and natural gas primarily from the Permian Basin.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Crude Oil: HighPeak Energy produces and sells crude oil extracted from its Permian Basin properties.
- Natural Gas: The company also extracts and markets natural gas, primarily methane, from its drilling operations.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): HighPeak Energy separates and sells valuable natural gas liquids, such as ethane, propane, and butane, derived from its natural gas production.
AI Analysis | Feedback
HighPeak Energy (HPK) sells primarily to other companies, specifically midstream and downstream energy companies.
Based on their 2023 annual report (10-K), HighPeak Energy's major customers, representing more than 10% of total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023, include:
- Motiva Enterprises LLC: A privately held downstream energy company that operates refineries, distribution terminals, and markets fuel products. Motiva is a joint venture between Saudi Aramco and Shell Oil Company. As Motiva Enterprises LLC is a private company, it does not have a public stock symbol.
- Enlink Crude Oil, LLC: A subsidiary of EnLink Midstream, LLC (NYSE: ENLC). EnLink Midstream is a leading midstream energy company that provides services for natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil, and condensate.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Michael L. Hollis, President and Chief Executive Officer
Michael L. Hollis was appointed Interim Chief Executive Officer of HighPeak Energy in September 2025 and subsequently made permanent President and CEO. He has served as President and a director of the Board since August 2020. Prior to joining HighPeak, Mr. Hollis served as President and Chief Operating Officer of Diamondback Energy, Inc., a Permian focused oil and gas producer, from 2017 to 2019, having previously been COO since 2015 and Vice President of Drilling from 2011 to 2014. He also served on the Board of Directors for Diamondback and Viper Energy Partners LP. Before his time at Diamondback, Mr. Hollis was a Drilling Manager at Chesapeake Energy Corporation and held various engineering roles at ConocoPhillips and Burlington Resources Inc.. He led Pure Acquisition Corp., a publicly traded special purpose acquisition company, as President from December 2019 to August 2020, which acquired the assets of HighPeak Energy partnerships, leading to the formation of HighPeak Energy, Inc.. Mr. Hollis has over 25 years of experience in the oil and gas industry. He is also part of the committee managing the HighPeak Funds, which are private equity entities.
Steven W. Tholen, Chief Financial Officer
Steven W. Tholen has served as HighPeak Energy's Chief Financial Officer since its inception in October 2019. He is a corporate finance executive with over 30 years of experience in building, leading, and advising corporations through complex restructurings, purchase and sales transactions, and capital market transactions. Mr. Tholen also served as the CFO for the HighPeak Funds, which are private equity companies, since 2014. Previously, he co-founded and served as Executive Vice President – Finance of Fieldco Construction Services, Inc., providing oilfield construction services from 2011 to 2014. From 2009 to 2013, Mr. Tholen was the founder and President of SDL&T Energy Partners, which provided equity and debt financing to energy companies globally. His prior experience also includes serving as Senior Vice President & CFO of Harvest Natural Resources, Inc. (2001-2008), Vice President and CFO of Penn Virginia Corporation (1995-2000), and Treasurer/Manager of Business Administration of Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (1990-1995).
Jack D. Hightower, Founder and Former Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Jack D. Hightower, the founder of HighPeak Energy, retired as Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board in September 2025. He brings over 49 years of experience in managing multiple E&P platforms in the oil and gas industry. Mr. Hightower founded Titan Exploration in 1995, which later became Pure Resources, Inc., serving as its Chairman, President, and CEO. Pure Resources, Inc. grew to be the 11th largest publicly traded independent E&P company in North America before being sold to Unocal in October 2002. He also founded and served as Chairman, President, and CEO of several other energy companies, including Celero Energy, LP (2004-2005), Celero Energy II, LP (2006-2009), Bluestem Energy Partners, LP (2011-2013), and Enertex Inc. (1991-1994). Mr. Hightower has a history of profitably selling companies he founded. He was also the founder of HighPeak Energy Partners LP (2017) and HighPeak Energy Partners II LP, which are private equity funds and were involved in the formation of HighPeak Energy.
Rodney L. Woodard, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Rodney L. Woodard has served as HighPeak Energy's Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer since the company's inception in October 2019. He contributes over 40 years of experience in the oil and gas industry, having held roles as CEO, COO, and leader of Engineering and Operations for numerous exploration and production companies. Mr. Woodard also served as Executive Vice President & COO for the HighPeak Funds, a group of private equity companies, since 2017. Before the HighPeak business combination, he was the COO and a director of Pure Acquisition Corp..
Ryan Hightower, Executive Vice President
Ryan Hightower serves as Executive Vice President of HighPeak Energy, Inc., where he is responsible for driving company growth through new business opportunities and strategic expansion initiatives, as well as overseeing investor relations, marketing, and midstream activities. He previously served as Vice President – Business Development from August 2020 through September 2025. From 2014 to 2020, Mr. Hightower was instrumental in founding HighPeak Energy Partners, LP and HighPeak Energy Partners II, LP, which are private equity companies that formed HighPeak Energy, Inc.. He was also involved with Pure Acquisition Corp.. Mr. Hightower has over 18 years of experience in the oil and gas industry, primarily focused on land acquisitions and business development. Following Jack Hightower's retirement, he became part of the committee managing the HighPeak Funds.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to HighPeak Energy's business (HPK) are primarily related to its financial health, the volatility of commodity prices, and operational execution.
- Financial Health and High Leverage: HighPeak Energy's financial structure is currently stressed, and the company carries a higher leverage profile compared to many of its peers. Its Altman Z-Score, a predictor of bankruptcy, is in the distress zone, indicating potential financial instability. The company has approximately $1.2 billion in total debt. While management has taken steps to stabilize the balance sheet and extended debt maturities to September 2028, its ability to generate significant free cash flow is minimal. The company's liquidity could diminish once quarterly term loan repayments of $30 million restart in September 2026, particularly if crude oil prices remain at lower levels.
- Commodity Price Volatility: As an independent oil and natural gas company, HighPeak Energy's financial position, revenues, operating results, profitability, liquidity, future growth, and asset value are highly dependent on prevailing commodity prices, which are inherently volatile and uncertain. Sustained periods of low crude oil prices, such as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices staying below $60 per barrel for an extended period, could lead to a significant decline in HighPeak Energy's production and only a marginal reduction in its net debt.
- Operational and Execution Challenges: HighPeak Energy has faced operational headwinds, including a significant revenue miss in Q3 2025, with a 30.5% year-over-year decline. The percentage of total sales volume that is crude oil ("oil cut") also dropped from 70% in Q2 2025 to 66% in Q3 2025, which impacts revenue. While the company is undertaking a strategic pivot to address these issues, including restructuring corporate governance and adopting a scenario-based business approach tied to oil prices, the gap between financial expectations and actual results highlights ongoing execution risks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
HighPeak Energy (NASDAQ: HPK) focuses on the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company's operations are concentrated in the Permian Basin, specifically within the Midland Basin, located in West Texas and Eastern New Mexico, United States. The addressable market for HighPeak Energy's main products within their operating region, the Permian Basin in the U.S., is sized as follows:Crude Oil Market (Permian Basin, U.S.)
In 2023, crude oil production in the Permian Basin was 5,790 thousand barrels of oil per day (mbd). Forecasts indicate continued growth, with production projected to reach 6.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 and 6.6 million b/d in 2025. The Permian Basin represented 46.1% of total U.S. oil production in December 2023.Natural Gas Market (Permian Basin, U.S.)
Natural gas production in the Permian Basin reached 19,315 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) in 2023. For 2024, the region's total dry gas output is expected to increase by 10%, reaching over 185 billion cubic meters (bcm). Projections for 2025 estimate natural gas production to be 25.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). The Permian Basin contributed 16.8% of the U.S. natural gas production in December 2023.AI Analysis | Feedback
HighPeak Energy (HPK) anticipates several key drivers for its future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, primarily influenced by operational strategies and commodity price environments. Here are the expected drivers: * Enhanced Operational Efficiency and Cost Reduction: HighPeak Energy is prioritizing operational efficiency and cost control to improve profitability and support revenue generation. The company has successfully implemented a new simul-frac completion technique, leading to significant cost savings per well—over $400,000 compared to traditional methods—and increased efficiencies in lateral footage completed per day. This strategic focus on cost-saving measures and production optimization is expected to be more broadly incorporated into their 2026 development program. By reducing breakeven costs, HighPeak can maintain competitive margins, which in turn supports revenue stability and growth even in varying price environments. * Strategic Development and Optimization of Midland Basin Assets: The company is concentrated on developing its high-quality, oil-rich inventory within the Permian Basin, particularly in Howard County and areas like the Northern and Northeastern Flat Top. Continued investment in these core assets, including drilling and completion projects, is expected to maintain or increase production volumes, a direct driver of revenue. * Increased Production Volumes Through Development Programs: HighPeak's production volumes are a direct contributor to revenue. While recent activity has been moderated, the company's future development program is tied to oil prices. Under a "base case" scenario of $60-$70 per barrel oil, HighPeak plans to run a two-rig development program aimed at maintaining current production volumes. In a "bull case" scenario with oil prices above $70 per barrel, the company would consider modest growth in production. This indicates that an increase in development activity, contingent on favorable commodity prices, will lead to higher production and thus greater revenue. * Favorable Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices: As an independent oil and natural gas company, HighPeak Energy's revenue is highly sensitive to the realized prices of crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. The company's capital allocation and development strategy for 2026 are explicitly dependent on oil price fluctuations. Sustained or increasing commodity prices would directly translate into higher revenues for the company, assuming consistent production levels.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- HighPeak Energy repurchased over 2.4 million shares of common stock during 2024.
- The company's stock repurchase authorization of up to $75.0 million has been extended through December 2025.
Share Issuance
- HighPeak Energy filed a registration statement in November 2025 for a primary offering of up to $300,000,000 of common stock, which the company may sell over time for general corporate purposes, including debt repayment, acquisitions, capital expenditures, and working capital.
- The company's Principal Stockholder Group purchased approximately one million shares in connection with an underwritten equity offering in July 2023.
- As of November 4, 2025, a resale registration covered 79,706,576 shares of common stock issued from a May 2020 Business Combination Agreement and 29,057,783 shares from a July 2020 Forward Purchase Agreement, though the company will not receive proceeds from these selling securityholder sales.
Capital Expenditures
- HighPeak Energy's 2025 capital budget is projected to be approximately 20% lower than its 2024 capital expenditure spend, with an expected expenditure of $375 to $405 million for drilling, completion, facilities, and equipping costs, along with $40 to $50 million for field infrastructure and $33 to $35 million for one-time infrastructure expenditures.
- In 2024, the company reduced its capital expenditure budget by 40% from the prior year, while increasing production by 10%.
- For the third quarter of 2025, capital expenditures, excluding acquisitions, were $86.6 million, representing a reduction of over 30% compared to the second quarter of 2025.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| HighPeak Energy Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| HighPeak Energy (HPK) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| HighPeak Energy (HPK) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| HighPeak Energy (HPK) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| HighPeak Energy (HPK) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| HighPeak Energy (HPK) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| HighPeak Energy (HPK) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| HighPeak Energy (HPK) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Why HighPeak Energy Stock Moved: HPK Stock Has Lost 81% Since 2022 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | 08/08/2025 | |
| HPK Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 12/18/2025 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 33.77 |
| Mkt Cap | 28.9 |
| Rev LTM | 10,238 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,416 |
| FCF LTM | 346 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 134 |
| CFO LTM | 6,165 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,841 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 35.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 60.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 63.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 28.9 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 8.0 |
| P/E | 13.6 |
| P/CFO | 3.7 |
| Total Yield | 10.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.0% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -4.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -72.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas | 1,111 | |||
| Crude oil sales | 715 | 210 | 8 | |
| Natural gas liquids (NGL) and Natural gas sales | 40 | 10 | 0 | |
| Total | 1,111 | 756 | 220 | 8 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas | 216 | |||
| Total | 216 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas | 3,081 | |||
| Total | 3,081 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $5.09 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/29/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -64.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $4.68 | $7.27 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 8.7% | -30.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 87.6% | 75.3% |
| Downside Capture | 89.29 | 146.11 |
| Upside Capture | -7.37 | 22.88 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 28.7% | 45.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.24 | 1.56 | 1.63 | 0.85 | 1.69 | 1.34 |
| Up Beta | 2.86 | 3.06 | 1.85 | 0.49 | 1.88 | 1.33 |
| Down Beta | 5.64 | 4.88 | 3.61 | 3.18 | 2.50 | 2.09 |
| Up Capture | -101% | -252% | -51% | -72% | 10% | 19% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 17 | 29 | 56 | 113 | 364 |
| Down Capture | -39% | 148% | 165% | 94% | 127% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 24 | 32 | 67 | 134 | 378 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HPK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPK | -63.8% | 74.9% | -1.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 25.2% | 25.2% | 0.85 | 64.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 19.4% | 0.55 | 45.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 74.3% | 25.3% | 2.17 | 7.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.0% | 16.7% | 0.24 | 49.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.9% | 16.6% | 0.28 | 37.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.8% | 44.9% | -0.65 | 25.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HPK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPK | -18.4% | 69.9% | 0.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 24.1% | 26.4% | 0.82 | 53.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.0% | 0.62 | 27.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.0% | 1.06 | 12.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.5% | 18.9% | 0.44 | 42.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 23.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.3% | 57.2% | 0.37 | 9.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HPK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPK | -5.6% | 66.4% | 0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 11.2% | 29.6% | 0.42 | 31.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 16.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.3% | 15.6% | 0.82 | 8.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 17.6% | 0.38 | 29.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.4% | 20.7% | 0.27 | 12.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.9% | 66.7% | 1.07 | 6.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -14.3% | -2.1% | -11.4% |
| 6/30/2025 | -1.2% | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| 3/10/2025 | -7.4% | 4.3% | -30.7% |
| 11/4/2024 | 11.2% | 7.0% | 12.1% |
| 8/5/2024 | -1.8% | 9.3% | 3.2% |
| 3/6/2024 | -9.7% | -3.6% | 0.9% |
| 11/6/2023 | -5.1% | -4.1% | -14.6% |
| 8/7/2023 | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 5.1% | 5.4% | 10.8% |
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -6.6% | -14.6% |
| Max Positive | 11.2% | 16.1% | 191.2% |
| Max Negative | -14.7% | -16.8% | -52.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/10/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/06/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/14/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/07/2022 | 10-K |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.