Tearsheet

HighPeak Energy (HPK)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.87 | Market Cap: $732.6 Mil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

HighPeak Energy (HPK)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.87
Market Cap: $732.6 Mil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -112%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -147%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 117%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.49
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -30%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -112%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -147%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.49
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 117%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -30%
8 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HPK Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximately -23.8% stock movement for HighPeak Energy (HPK) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. HighPeak Energy reported a significant miss on its Third Quarter 2025 financial results, posting a net loss of $18.3 million, or ($0.15) per diluted share, against analyst expectations of a profit of $0.19 per share. This substantial shortfall in earnings and revenue contributed to a 13.56% decline in the stock price immediately following the announcement on November 5, 2025.

2. Following the disappointing Q3 2025 earnings, analysts became more bearish on HPK, leading to significant reductions in price targets and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. The average price target for the stock fell by 48% to $9.50, and 2026 EPS estimates were cut by 40%. The consensus analyst rating for HPK remained a "Hold," with some analysts issuing "Sell" ratings.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HPK Return54%-7%57%-37%4%-55%-34%
Peers Return-37%91%57%10%1%-1%109%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HPK Win Rate58%50%67%33%33%20% 
Peers Win Rate40%68%62%58%50%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HPK Max Drawdown-59%-62%0%-53%-12%-64% 
Peers Max Drawdown-71%-1%0%-14%-9%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventHPKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-71.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven250.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-61.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven161.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven43 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-1.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven140 days120 days

Compare to BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG


In The Past

HighPeak Energy's stock fell -71.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/22/2022. A -71.4% loss requires a 250.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About HighPeak Energy (HPK)

Better Bets than HighPeak Energy (HPK)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HPK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for HighPeak Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HPKBSMCOPCNQEOGFANGMedian
NameHighPeak.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso.Diamondb. 
Mkt Price5.80-91.8134.13111.51158.3891.81
Mkt Cap0.7-114.371.360.345.760.3
Rev LTM88243159,78844,52122,57915,28418,932
Op Inc LTM24627812,5499,0227,5395,5846,562
FCF LTM-152247,0888,1243,891-1,0942,058
FCF 3Y Avg-1453718,9108,2845,167-1,9662,769
CFO LTM55833619,93514,77010,1958,7569,476
CFO 3Y Avg68943720,72013,87411,4536,7309,091

Growth & Margins

HPKBSMCOPCNQEOGFANGMedian
NameHighPeak.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso.Diamondb. 
Rev Chg LTM-22.4%-8.5%8.2%8.3%-5.0%60.1%1.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg21.0%-16.4%-6.6%-2.4%-7.6%20.8%-4.5%
Rev Chg Q-30.5%1.9%15.3%6.4%-2.3%48.2%4.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-8.6%0.5%3.4%1.5%-0.6%9.1%1.0%
Op Mgn LTM28.0%64.3%21.0%20.3%33.4%36.5%30.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg34.4%66.2%24.1%21.9%36.4%46.8%35.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.8%1.0%-1.0%-4.3%-0.8%-1.3%-1.1%
CFO/Rev LTM63.3%77.9%33.3%33.2%45.2%57.3%51.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg66.7%88.7%35.6%32.8%49.0%62.5%55.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.7%52.0%11.9%18.2%17.2%-7.2%14.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-13.9%73.9%15.3%19.6%22.1%-18.6%17.5%

Valuation

HPKBSMCOPCNQEOGFANGMedian
NameHighPeak.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso.Diamondb. 
Mkt Cap0.7-114.371.360.345.760.3
P/S1.0-2.01.52.72.72.0
P/EBIT4.1-8.17.68.36.97.6
P/E16.6-13.310.011.09.911.0
P/CFO1.6-5.94.55.94.74.7
Total Yield8.6%-10.8%17.1%12.6%12.9%12.6%
Dividend Yield2.6%-3.3%7.1%3.5%2.7%3.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-6.9%-6.9%12.0%7.6%-5.2%6.9%
D/E1.4-0.20.30.10.40.3
Net D/E1.2-0.10.30.10.40.3

Returns

HPKBSMCOPCNQEOGFANGMedian
NameHighPeak.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso.Diamondb. 
1M Rtn-7.2%-4.6%6.8%5.6%12.9%5.6%
3M Rtn-23.0%--2.1%10.7%-6.6%12.1%-2.1%
6M Rtn-45.9%-8.7%13.4%2.5%15.3%8.7%
12M Rtn-60.7%--10.4%5.1%-12.5%-7.3%-10.4%
3Y Rtn-73.9%--16.5%31.6%-9.3%23.4%-9.3%
1M Excs Rtn-7.2%-4.7%6.8%5.6%12.9%5.6%
3M Excs Rtn-28.8%--8.6%4.9%-12.8%6.4%-8.6%
6M Excs Rtn-60.7%--6.0%-1.4%-12.2%0.5%-6.0%
12M Excs Rtn-74.2%--25.9%-7.2%-27.0%-21.8%-25.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-147.0%--90.4%-39.2%-80.6%-47.9%-80.6%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,336,736
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.0%
Average Daily Volume469,830
Days-to-Cover Short Interest13.49
Basic Shares Quantity124,807,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024310202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023306202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022306202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022516202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021307202210-K 12/31/2021