HighPeak Energy (HPK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.87 | Market Cap: $732.6 MilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
HighPeak Energy (HPK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.87Market Cap: $732.6 MilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -112%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -147% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 117% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.49 | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -30% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -112%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -147% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.49 |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 117% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -30% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HPK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximately -23.8% stock movement for HighPeak Energy (HPK) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. HighPeak Energy reported a significant miss on its Third Quarter 2025 financial results, posting a net loss of $18.3 million, or ($0.15) per diluted share, against analyst expectations of a profit of $0.19 per share. This substantial shortfall in earnings and revenue contributed to a 13.56% decline in the stock price immediately following the announcement on November 5, 2025.
2. Following the disappointing Q3 2025 earnings, analysts became more bearish on HPK, leading to significant reductions in price targets and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. The average price target for the stock fell by 48% to $9.50, and 2026 EPS estimates were cut by 40%. The consensus analyst rating for HPK remained a "Hold," with some analysts issuing "Sell" ratings.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HPK Return | 54% | -7% | 57% | -37% | 4% | -55% | -34% |
| Peers Return | -37% | 91% | 57% | 10% | 1% | -1% | 109% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HPK Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 67% | 33% | 33% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 68% | 62% | 58% | 50% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HPK Max Drawdown | -59% | -62% | 0% | -53% | -12% | -64% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -71% | -1% | 0% | -14% | -9% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HPK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -71.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 250.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -61.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 161.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -1.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 140 days | 120 days |
Compare to BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG
In The Past
HighPeak Energy's stock fell -71.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/22/2022. A -71.4% loss requires a 250.0% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| HighPeak Energy (HPK) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| HighPeak Energy (HPK) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| HighPeak Energy (HPK) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| HighPeak Energy (HPK) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| HighPeak Energy (HPK) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| HighPeak Energy (HPK) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| HighPeak Energy (HPK) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why HighPeak Energy Stock Moved: HPK Stock Has Lost 71% Since 2022 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| HPK Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| null | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | November 6th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | September 10th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | August 21st, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | August 13th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HPK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for HighPeak Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 91.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.3 |
| Rev LTM | 18,932 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,562 |
| FCF LTM | 2,058 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,769 |
| CFO LTM | 9,476 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,091 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 35.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 51.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 55.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.3 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 7.6 |
| P/E | 11.0 |
| P/CFO | 4.7 |
| Total Yield | 12.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -9.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -80.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3102025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3062024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3062023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3072022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |