Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $23.35 | Market Cap: $4.3 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $23.35Market Cap: $4.3 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.9%, FCF Yield is 9.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and Resource Efficiency Solutions. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.9%, FCF Yield is 9.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and Resource Efficiency Solutions. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MGY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Magnolia Oil & Gas reported a significant decrease in net income and adjusted net income for the third quarter of 2025 compared to the prior year. The company's net income declined by 26% to $78.2 million, and adjusted net income fell by 22% to $77.8 million year-over-year.
2. The company's diluted earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2025 dropped to $0.40, a 23% decrease from $0.52 in Q3 2024. This adjusted EPS also missed analyst forecasts by 4.76%.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MGY Return | -44% | 169% | 27% | -7% | 12% | 1% | 100% |
| Peers Return | -28% | 99% | 23% | 1% | 8% | -2% | 91% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MGY Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 55% | 58% | 47% | 48% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MGY Max Drawdown | -73% | 0% | -2% | -19% | -8% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -5% | -5% | -19% | -9% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SWX, OGS, NJR, SM, BSM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MGY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -74.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 287.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 358 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 671 days | 120 days |
Compare to SWX, OGS, NJR, SM, BSM
In The Past
Magnolia Oil & Gas's stock fell -38.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -38.4% loss requires a 62.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MGY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Magnolia Oil & Gas
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 45.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| Rev LTM | 2,232 |
| Op Inc LTM | 514 |
| FCF LTM | -147 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -74 |
| CFO LTM | 637 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 717 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 18.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 28.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 29.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 45.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 44.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -4.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -2.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/EBIT | 9.3 |
| P/E | 12.2 |
| P/CFO | 8.1 |
| Total Yield | 11.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.0% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 5.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -69.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |