Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY)
Market Price (4/10/2026): $30.15 | Market Cap: $5.5 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY)
Market Price (4/10/2026): $30.15Market Cap: $5.5 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 7.6% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 67%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and Resource Efficiency Solutions. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -28% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.7% Key risksMGY key risks include [1] significant exposure to commodity price volatility due to its fully unhedged production profile. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 7.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 67%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and Resource Efficiency Solutions. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -28% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.7% |
| Key risksMGY key risks include [1] significant exposure to commodity price volatility due to its fully unhedged production profile. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial and Operational Performance.
Magnolia Oil & Gas announced robust fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 5, 2026, reporting earnings per share (EPS) of $0.37, which exceeded analysts' consensus estimates of $0.36 by $0.01. The company achieved a record quarterly production of nearly 104,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d) and 40,700 barrels of oil per day, representing a 3% sequential increase. Additionally, Magnolia returned 110% of the free cash flow generated during the fourth quarter of 2025 to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends.
2. Increased Shareholder Returns Through Dividend Hike.
On January 29, 2026, Magnolia Oil & Gas announced a 10% increase in its quarterly dividend rate, raising it to $0.165 per share, which translates to an annualized dividend of $0.66 per share. This marked the fifth consecutive year the company has increased its dividend, signaling strong confidence in its business model, consistent free cash flow generation, and commitment to shareholder returns.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 36.3% change in MGY stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 41.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.76 | 29.66 | 36.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,321 | 1,312 | -0.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.9% | 24.8% | -4.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.7 | 16.6 | 41.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 185 | 182 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 36.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MGY | 36.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 6.6% |
| Sector (XLE) | 28.2% | 77.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 25.9% change in MGY stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 38.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.56 | 29.66 | 25.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,329 | 1,312 | -1.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.6% | 24.8% | -10.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.0 | 16.6 | 38.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 187 | 182 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 25.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MGY | 25.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 22.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | 29.4% | 79.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.5% change in MGY stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 29.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.61 | 29.66 | 20.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,316 | 1,312 | -0.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.8% | 24.8% | -10.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.8 | 16.6 | 29.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 191 | 182 | 4.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MGY | 20.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 57.6% |
| Sector (XLE) | 25.8% | 87.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 45.4% change in MGY stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 283.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.39 | 29.66 | 45.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,694 | 1,312 | -22.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 52.7% | 24.8% | -53.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 4.3 | 16.6 | 283.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 190 | 182 | 4.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 45.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MGY | 45.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 45.0% |
| Sector (XLE) | 51.6% | 85.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MGY Return | 169% | 27% | -7% | 12% | -4% | 37% | 367% |
| Peers Return | 175% | 54% | -1% | -12% | -8% | 36% | 364% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 81% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MGY Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 75% | 60% | 47% | 40% | 55% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MGY Max Drawdown | 0% | -2% | -19% | -8% | -16% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -0% | 0% | -23% | -19% | -27% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EOG, COP, DVN, SM, MUR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MGY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,268 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -74.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 287.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 358 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 671 days | 120 days |
Compare to EOG, COP, DVN, SM, MUR
In The Past
Magnolia Oil & Gas's stock fell -38.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -38.4% loss requires a 62.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY)
AI Analysis | Feedback
A focused Pioneer Natural Resources, specializing in South Texas oil and gas.
The EOG Resources of the Eagle Ford Shale.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Oil: A hydrocarbon liquid extracted from underground reserves, primarily used as fuel or for manufacturing petrochemicals.
- Natural Gas: A gaseous hydrocarbon mixture extracted from underground, primarily used for energy generation and heating.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): Hydrocarbon components separated from natural gas, used as fuel, feedstock for plastics, and other products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Magnolia Oil & Gas (symbol: MGY) is an upstream oil and gas company that engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
Given the commodity nature of its products, Magnolia Oil & Gas primarily sells to other companies within the energy value chain, rather than directly to individuals. The company typically sells its crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs to a diverse group of purchasers under various contractual arrangements (both short-term and long-term).
Due to the competitive and commodity-based nature of the oil and gas market, Magnolia Oil & Gas does not publicly disclose specific names of its major customer companies, nor does it typically have individual customers that account for a significant portion of its revenue (e.g., 10% or more) that would necessitate such disclosure in its public filings. Therefore, it is not possible to list specific company names and symbols as major customers.
However, the categories of companies that purchase Magnolia Oil & Gas's products include:
- Midstream Companies: These companies purchase raw crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs at the wellhead for gathering, processing (e.g., separating natural gas into dry gas and NGLs), and transportation through pipelines to market hubs or end-users.
- Refiners: Companies that purchase crude oil as a feedstock to convert it into various refined products, such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other petrochemical feedstocks.
- Natural Gas Marketers and Utilities: Companies that purchase natural gas for resale to industrial, commercial, and residential customers, or for use in power generation.
- Petrochemical Companies: Companies that utilize NGLs (such as ethane, propane, and butane) as feedstocks for producing plastics, chemicals, and other industrial products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Christopher G. Stavros, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chairman of the Board
Mr. Stavros was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Magnolia Oil & Gas in September 2022, and also became Chairman of the Board in July 2025. Prior to this, he served as Magnolia's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer since July 2018. Before joining Magnolia, Mr. Stavros was the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Occidental Petroleum Corporation, where he began in 2005 and was named CFO in 2014, having previously held roles as Vice President, Investor Relations, and Treasurer. He retired from Occidental in May 2017. Earlier in his career, Mr. Stavros was a Senior Analyst at UBS, covering the Oil and Gas sector. He has 30 years of experience in the energy and financial industries. Magnolia Oil & Gas was formed through a strategic combination of TPG Pace Energy Holdings Corp. (a SPAC) and Magnolia Oil & Gas, LLC, an entity controlled by Stephen Chazen; the SPAC acquired South Texas properties from Enervest, a private equity firm, in 2018, at which point Mr. Stavros became CFO of Magnolia.
Brian M. Corales, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Corales was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Magnolia Oil & Gas on November 3, 2022. He previously served as Magnolia's Vice President, Investor Relations, since November 2018. Mr. Corales is a Certified Public Accountant. Before joining Magnolia, he was a senior analyst at Johnson Rice & Co. and spent 15 years in various investment banking roles, including as a director at Scotia Howard Weil, where he covered exploration and production companies from October 2009 to February 2018. He began his career in 2001 in the Assurance practice at Ernst & Young, focusing on energy companies.
Timothy D. Yang, Executive Vice President, General Counsel, Corporate Secretary and Land
Mr. Yang joined Magnolia Oil & Gas in September 2018 as Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary, with his role expanding to include authority over Land in February 2022. Prior to Magnolia, he served as General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of Newfield Exploration Company from July 2015 to September 2018. His previous experience includes roles as Senior Vice President, Land & Legal, General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer, and Secretary at Sabine Oil & Gas Corporation from 2013 to 2015. Mr. Yang's legal background encompasses both public and private companies in the energy and investment sectors, including Invesco Ltd./AIM Investments, Pogo Producing Company, and Eagle Rock Energy Partners, L.P.
Stephen I. Chazen, Founder (Deceased)
Mr. Chazen founded Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation and served as its Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer from its inception in 2017/2018 until his resignation due to health reasons in September 2022, shortly before his passing. Prior to founding Magnolia, he had a distinguished career at Occidental Petroleum Corporation, serving as its Chief Executive Officer from 2011 to 2016, and in various other leadership positions, including Chief Financial Officer, President, and Chief Operating Officer, since joining the company in 1994. He was also on Occidental's Board of Directors from 2010 to 2017 and was elected Chairman of Occidental's board in 2020. Before his tenure at Occidental, Mr. Chazen worked as a Managing Director in the investment banking division of Merrill Lynch, focusing on corporate finance and mergers and acquisitions. Magnolia's formation involved a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), TPG Pace Energy Holdings Corp., and the acquisition of South Texas properties from Enervest, a private equity firm, demonstrating his involvement in managing companies backed by private equity.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Magnolia Oil & Gas's business:Key Risks for Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY)
- Commodity Price Volatility: Magnolia Oil & Gas's financial performance is highly susceptible to the volatile prices of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Fluctuations in these commodity prices directly impact the company's revenue, profitability, and ability to fund operations. For instance, a decline in oil prices has already been identified as a challenge to revenue growth.
- Regulatory and ESG Risks: The company faces significant risks related to evolving environmental regulations, climate change policies, and broader Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) concerns. These regulatory changes can lead to increased compliance costs and may disproportionately affect smaller operators like Magnolia, which might have fewer resources to adapt. Furthermore, the global push towards renewable energy sources poses a long-term challenge to the demand for hydrocarbons.
- Operational and Geological Risks with Concentrated Asset Base: Magnolia Oil & Gas is exposed to the inherent operational and geological risks associated with oil and gas exploration and production, including potential cost overruns or production delays related to advanced drilling techniques. A significant portion of its operations is concentrated in specific areas, primarily the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations in South Texas. This concentrated asset base exposes the company to localized operational and financial risks, and a limited scale can affect its negotiating power and cost efficiencies compared to larger competitors.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids primarily in the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations in South Texas, United States. The addressable markets for their main products are substantial within the United States.
For their main products, the market sizes in the U.S. or North America are:
- Crude Oil: The global crude oil market was valued at approximately USD 755.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 929.8 billion by 2034. North America, encompassing the U.S., held about 52% of the global market share in 2022.
- Natural Gas: The U.S. natural gas market was valued at approximately USD 454.5 billion in 2024 and is expected to increase to USD 577.9 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.2% from 2025 to 2032.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): The North American Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) market is estimated to grow from USD 7.08 billion in 2024 to USD 11.53 billion in 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 5.57%. The U.S. NGL production is a significant component of this, with field production totaling 7,041 thousand barrels per day in 2024.
Within Magnolia's primary operating regions in South Texas, the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk plays also show significant production volumes:
- Eagle Ford Shale: Natural gas production in the Eagle Ford region is projected to increase from 6.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024 to 7.0 Bcf/d by 2026. Oil production in the Eagle Ford has remained stable at approximately 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d) since 2020, with this trend expected to continue through 2026. The region is estimated to contain 8.5 billion barrels of oil, 66 trillion cubic feet (TcF) of natural gas, and 1.9 billion barrels of natural gas liquids in technically recoverable resources.
- Austin Chalk Formation: Gas output from the Austin Chalk has nearly tripled since 2020, reaching 1.8 Bcf/d, while oil output has increased by 26,000 barrels per day (bbl/d). As of April 2025, the Austin Chalk play contributed 23% (1.8 Bcf/d) of the Eagle Ford region's natural gas production and 11% (125,000 b/d) of its oil production. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates the Austin Chalk to hold 6.9 billion barrels of oil and 41.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) over the next 2-3 years:1. Consistent Production Growth from Core Assets: Magnolia Oil & Gas anticipates continued growth in its oil and natural gas production volumes, primarily from its established positions in the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations in South Texas. The company projects high single-digit total production growth and similar oil production growth on an annual basis for 2024. Looking ahead to 2025, total production growth is expected to be in the range of 5% to 7%, with low single-digit annual growth in oil production. In Q1 2024, total production volumes already increased by 7% year-over-year. The company achieved record quarterly production of 93,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q4 2024, leading to a 9% annual growth in total production for the full year 2024, with oil growth at 11%. This trend is expected to continue, with a 5% production growth target for 2026.
2. Strategic Bolt-on Acquisitions: Magnolia's business strategy includes utilizing generated free cash flow to pursue attractive bolt-on oil and gas property acquisitions. For example, in Q1 2024, the company spent $27 million on such acquisitions, primarily in the Giddings area. One acquisition in Q1 2024 encompassed over 80,000 gross acres, providing both new operated development opportunities and increasing the company's working interest in existing high-return locations. These strategic additions to its asset base are expected to contribute to overall production and revenue expansion.
3. Enhanced Operational Efficiencies and Cost Optimization: The company is focused on improving field operations and efficiencies, particularly in the Giddings area, which is expected to lead to lower unit operating costs and higher margins. These efficiencies include fewer drilling days per well and significant gains in stimulation stages per day. Furthermore, lower overall well costs combined with these improved operating efficiencies are anticipated to enable the drilling and completion of more wells without increasing capital expenditures, thereby supporting high-margin growth.
4. Favorable Commodity Price Environment: As Magnolia Oil & Gas remains un-hedged for all its oil and natural gas production, fluctuations in commodity prices will directly impact its revenue. A sustained period of favorable crude oil and natural gas prices would serve as a significant driver for increased revenue. While the company's operational strength provides a buffer, higher market prices for oil and gas would directly translate to greater top-line performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Magnolia Oil & Gas expanded its share repurchase authorization to 60 million shares on February 5, 2026.
- The company repurchased 8.9 million Class A Common shares during 2025, resulting in a 4.4% to 4.5% reduction in the diluted weighted average total shares outstanding compared to the prior year.
- Magnolia returned approximately 88% of the free cash flow generated during 2024 to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends.
Share Issuance
- The fully diluted share count for the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be approximately 187 million shares, marking a 4% reduction from first quarter 2025 levels.
- The diluted weighted average total shares outstanding for the third quarter of 2024 fell by 5% to 198.4 million compared to the third quarter of 2023, indicating a net reduction in shares.
Outbound Investments
- Magnolia completed several small bolt-on oil and gas property acquisitions during 2025, totaling $66.6 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Magnolia's full-year 2025 capital spending on drilling, completions, and associated facilities was $460.7 million, with an estimated range of $440 million to $480 million for 2026.
- The company's drilling and completion capital for 2024 was $477.0 million.
- Capital spending is primarily focused on the high-growth Giddings area (75-80%) and Karnes (20-25%), and includes appraisal activities in South Texas to enhance resource opportunities.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to MGY.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | KGS | Kodiak Gas Services | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | KOS | Kosmos Energy | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12262025 | TPL | Texas Pacific Land | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 65.2% | 65.2% | -2.1% |
| 12122025 | NOV | NOV | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -6.5% |
| 12122025 | RIG | Transocean | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 60.5% | 60.5% | -7.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 42.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.5 |
| Rev LTM | 10,163 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,339 |
| FCF LTM | 1,668 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,035 |
| CFO LTM | 4,361 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,204 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | -6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 30.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 45.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 50.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.5 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/EBIT | 11.0 |
| P/E | 15.7 |
| P/CFO | 5.3 |
| Total Yield | 8.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 32.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 38.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 17.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 38.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 25.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 13.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -49.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $29.66 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/29/2017 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -8.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $28.54 | $24.35 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 3.9% | 21.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 30.7% | 32.9% |
| Downside Capture | -0.41 | 0.16 |
| Upside Capture | 99.52 | 59.69 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 6.5% | 47.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.10 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 0.47 | 1.13 | 0.97 |
| Up Beta | -2.74 | 0.29 | 0.55 | 0.90 | 1.26 | 1.13 |
| Down Beta | 0.28 | 0.84 | 0.89 | 0.85 | 1.67 | 1.32 |
| Up Capture | 116% | 66% | 77% | 58% | 57% | 42% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 27 | 42 | 73 | 133 | 397 |
| Down Capture | -86% | -105% | -148% | -20% | 58% | 86% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 15 | 21 | 53 | 118 | 351 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MGY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGY | 48.3% | 35.5% | 1.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 50.5% | 22.4% | 1.74 | 86.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.1% | 17.4% | 1.36 | 50.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 61.3% | 27.8% | 1.72 | 7.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 26.9% | 16.7% | 1.41 | 59.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 17.7% | 15.4% | 0.86 | 33.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -10.9% | 43.9% | -0.14 | 27.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MGY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGY | 21.9% | 40.4% | 0.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 22.2% | 26.1% | 0.77 | 85.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.4% | 17.0% | 0.52 | 42.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.2% | 17.8% | 1.02 | 13.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 18.8% | 0.50 | 61.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 31.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.6% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 15.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MGY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGY | 12.6% | 46.4% | 0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 10.7% | 29.5% | 0.40 | 77.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 45.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.1% | 15.9% | 0.74 | 3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 55.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 37.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.1% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 11.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/5/2026 | 3.0% | -0.9% | 10.9% |
| 10/29/2025 | -2.6% | -6.8% | 3.0% |
| 7/30/2025 | -2.3% | -2.7% | 2.5% |
| 4/30/2025 | 2.7% | 0.7% | 5.4% |
| 2/18/2025 | 1.5% | -2.5% | 4.7% |
| 10/30/2024 | -1.1% | 6.7% | 9.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | -6.2% | -11.9% | -4.7% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.3% | 1.6% | -5.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.9% | 5.8% | 9.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -4.2% | -4.9% |
| Max Positive | 13.1% | 24.7% | 77.5% |
| Max Negative | -6.2% | -11.9% | -16.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 D&C Capital Spending | 125.00 Mil | 13.6% | Higher New | Actual: 110.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Total Production | 0.10 Mil | 1.0% | Higher New | Actual: 0.10 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Diluted Share Count | 187.00 Mil | -1.1% | Lower New | Actual: 189.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| 2026 D&C Capital Spending | 440.00 Mil | 460.00 Mil | 480.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Total Production Growth | 5.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/29/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 D&C Capital Spending | 110.00 Mil | -4.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 115.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Total Production | 0.10 Mil | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 99,000 for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 LOE per boe | 5.2 | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.25 for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Fully Diluted Share Count | 189.00 Mil | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 191.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
| 2025 Total Production Growth | 10.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Production Growth | 5.0% | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ropp, Ralph Lewis | Direct | Buy | 11122025 | 23.10 | 4,500 | 103,964 | 339,314 | Form | |
| 2 | Szabo, Shandell | Direct | Buy | 5052025 | 21.30 | 11,731 | 249,870 | 385,424 | Form | |
| 3 | Acosta, Arcilia | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 29.10 | 19,235 | 559,777 | 3,732,302 | Form | |
| 4 | Djerejian, Edward P | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 28.98 | 18,000 | 521,604 | 3,199,896 | Form | |
| 5 | Smith, Dan F | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 29.01 | 18,000 | 522,216 | 3,458,346 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.