Tearsheet

Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $22.015 | Market Cap: $4.1 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $22.015
Market Cap: $4.1 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.9%, FCF Yield is 9.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.11, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Key risks
MGY key risks include [1] significant exposure to commodity price volatility due to its fully unhedged production profile.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and Resource Efficiency Solutions.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.9%, FCF Yield is 9.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and Resource Efficiency Solutions.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.11, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.5%
7 Key risks
MGY key risks include [1] significant exposure to commodity price volatility due to its fully unhedged production profile.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MGY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The search results provide some information about Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) within the requested timeframe (8/31/2025 to 12/18/2025), primarily analyst ratings, earnings reports, and dividend declarations. However, none of the search results explicitly state or explain a -10.8% stock movement for MGY during this specific period. The analyst ratings generally show "Hold" or "Moderate Buy" consensus, with price targets indicating an upside potential. Q2 and Q3 2025 earnings reports indicate strong performance, production growth, and consistent free cash flow generation, which would typically be positive for a stock. There's also mention of a quarterly dividend declared in October 2025, payable in December 2025. Without explicit news or events detailing a negative stock catalyst or a -10.8% drop, it is not possible to accurately identify the "key points for why the stock moved by -10.8%" for the specified period based on the provided search results. The instructions state to "not include any disclaimers or caveats in your output" and "Do not apologize if unable to complete request." Therefore, I cannot explicitly state that the information is not available. Since the prompt requires me to highlight key points for *why* the stock moved by -10.8%, and the search results do not provide this information for the specified future period, I cannot accurately fulfill the request as presented. I am unable to invent reasons for a hypothetical future stock drop without hallucination. However, I must provide an output without disclaimers. Given the constraints, I cannot provide a list of "key points for why the stock moved by -10.8%," as no such information was found for the specified future period. Given the strict instructions not to include disclaimers or apologize if unable to complete the request, and the lack of specific information in the search results explaining a -10.8% stock drop for Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, it is not possible to provide the requested five key points. The available information primarily highlights analyst ratings and company financial performance that generally suggest a positive or stable outlook for MGY during that period. Therefore, no specific key points can be provided to explain a -10.8% stock movement within the specified timeframe.The search results provided information about Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) within the requested timeframe (8/31/2025 to 12/18/2025), including analyst ratings, earnings reports for Q2 and Q3 2025, and dividend declarations. However, none of the snippets explicitly highlight or explain a -10.8% stock movement for MGY during this specific period. The overall sentiment from the analyst ratings appears to be "Hold" or "Moderate Buy" with price targets suggesting an upside. The company's Q2 and Q3 2025 earnings reports indicate strong operational performance, production growth, and consistent free cash flow generation. A quarterly dividend was also declared in October 2025, payable in December 2025. Since no specific news, events, or analyst commentary within the provided search results explain a decline of -10.8% for MGY's stock during the specified period, and the instructions prohibit including disclaimers or apologies for inability to complete the request, I cannot provide factual key points for such a movement. Therefore, I am unable to generate the requested output.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MGY Return-44%169%27%-7%12%-5%89%
Peers Return-42%175%54%-1%-12%-10%94%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MGY Win Rate42%58%58%50%50%58% 
Peers Win Rate42%75%60%47%40%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MGY Max Drawdown-73%0%-2%-19%-8%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-76%-0%0%-23%-19%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EOG, COP, DVN, SM, MUR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMGYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven62.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-74.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven287.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven358 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven671 days120 days

Compare to SWX, OGS, NJR, SM, BSM


In The Past

Magnolia Oil & Gas's stock fell -38.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -38.4% loss requires a 62.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY)

Better Bets than Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MGY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Magnolia Oil & Gas

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MGYEOGCOPDVNSMMURMedian
NameMagnolia.EOG Reso.ConocoPh.Devon En.SM EnergyMurphy O. 
Mkt Price22.05104.7494.9636.9519.4132.2634.61
Mkt Cap4.156.7118.223.22.24.613.9
Rev LTM1,32122,57959,78817,4703,2722,74610,371
Op Inc LTM4697,53912,5493,9581,0184922,488
FCF LTM4083,8917,0882,818-1,5634051,613
FCF 3Y Avg4375,1678,9101,677-2806481,163
CFO LTM89310,19519,9356,8412,1371,4324,489
CFO 3Y Avg90511,45320,7206,7441,7351,6644,239

Growth & Margins

MGYEOGCOPDVNSMMURMedian
NameMagnolia.EOG Reso.ConocoPh.Devon En.SM EnergyMurphy O. 
Rev Chg LTM0.7%-5.0%8.2%11.4%34.0%-13.9%4.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-6.6%-7.6%-6.6%-2.1%1.1%-11.7%-6.6%
Rev Chg Q-2.5%-2.3%15.3%7.6%26.3%-4.3%2.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.6%-0.6%3.4%1.8%5.4%-1.2%0.6%
Op Mgn LTM35.5%33.4%21.0%22.7%31.1%17.9%26.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg41.4%36.4%24.1%28.3%37.3%25.4%32.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.9%-0.8%-1.0%-1.7%-3.1%-2.1%-1.8%
CFO/Rev LTM67.6%45.2%33.3%39.2%65.3%52.1%48.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg69.9%49.0%35.6%41.8%63.8%52.6%50.8%
FCF/Rev LTM30.9%17.2%11.9%16.1%-47.8%14.8%15.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg33.7%22.1%15.3%10.2%-6.0%20.3%17.8%

Valuation

MGYEOGCOPDVNSMMURMedian
NameMagnolia.EOG Reso.ConocoPh.Devon En.SM EnergyMurphy O. 
Mkt Cap4.156.7118.223.22.24.613.9
P/S3.32.72.01.30.91.51.7
P/EBIT9.68.38.15.42.611.68.2
P/E12.911.013.38.13.928.411.9
P/CFO4.95.95.93.21.32.84.1
Total Yield9.1%12.6%10.8%15.1%27.0%8.0%11.7%
Dividend Yield1.3%3.5%3.3%2.8%1.6%4.5%3.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.8%7.6%6.9%6.5%-12.9%12.4%7.3%
D/E0.10.10.20.40.90.50.3
Net D/E0.00.10.10.30.90.40.2

Returns

MGYEOGCOPDVNSMMURMedian
NameMagnolia.EOG Reso.ConocoPh.Devon En.SM EnergyMurphy O. 
1M Rtn-1.2%-4.3%7.0%6.0%5.5%9.4%5.8%
3M Rtn-10.0%-11.8%2.2%5.0%-28.6%21.1%-3.9%
6M Rtn-7.2%-13.9%3.0%10.0%-28.4%32.0%-2.1%
12M Rtn-6.6%-12.0%-0.0%18.1%-48.5%15.9%-3.3%
3Y Rtn3.2%-7.0%-4.4%-30.6%-39.4%-14.6%-10.8%
1M Excs Rtn-1.9%-5.1%6.3%5.3%4.8%8.7%5.1%
3M Excs Rtn-11.1%-12.0%1.2%4.9%-29.7%19.3%-5.0%
6M Excs Rtn-19.6%-26.2%-9.4%-2.4%-40.7%19.6%-14.5%
12M Excs Rtn-21.7%-25.6%-13.8%1.0%-61.6%1.0%-17.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-64.5%-73.0%-74.0%-100.1%-110.7%-82.4%-78.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil and natural gas properties1,227    
Natural gas liquids revenues 2351584970
Natural gas revenues 3011737094
Oil revenues 1,158748422772
Total1,2271,6941,078541936


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity22,161,920
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-1.5%
Average Daily Volume1,995,022
Days-to-Cover Short Interest11.11
Basic Shares Quantity184,737,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-2.6%-6.1%3.0%
7/30/2025-2.3%-2.7%2.5%
4/30/20252.7%0.7%5.4%
2/18/20251.5%-2.5%4.7%
10/30/2024-1.1%6.7%9.1%
7/31/2024-6.2%-11.9%-4.7%
5/7/20240.3%1.6%-5.1%
2/14/20245.3%8.5%17.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111516
# Negative14109
Median Positive2.7%4.9%7.2%
Median Negative-2.8%-5.9%-4.9%
Max Positive13.1%24.7%77.5%
Max Negative-6.2%-20.5%-54.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021