Elevance Health (ELV)
Market Price (9/17/2026): $414.54 | Market Cap: $90.0 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Managed Health Care
Elevance Health (ELV)
Market Price (9/17/2026): $414.54Market Cap: $90.0 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Managed Health Care
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 7.0% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 8.3 Bil Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 7.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.3 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.9% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% | Key risksELV key risks include [1] margin pressure from rising medical costs within its Medicare and Medicaid plans, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 7.0% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 8.3 Bil |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 7.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.9% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% |
| Key risksELV key risks include [1] margin pressure from rising medical costs within its Medicare and Medicaid plans, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Elevance Health (ELV) stock has gained about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance and Upgraded Outlook.
Elevance Health significantly surpassed analyst expectations in its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report released on July 15, 2026. The company reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.45, exceeding the consensus estimate of $6.21 by $1.24. Additionally, operating revenue reached $49.83 billion, surpassing analyst projections of $48.88 billion. Following these strong results, Elevance Health raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $27.00.
2. Positive Future Outlook, Driven by Expected Medicaid Margin Improvement and Robust Medicare Advantage Performance.
Management conveyed a positive outlook for future growth, projecting at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027. The company also indicated that fiscal year 2026 is expected to be the trough year for Medicaid margins, with improvements anticipated in 2027 as rates align more closely with costs. Concurrently, the Medicare Advantage segment continued its strong performance, positioning the company to achieve an operating margin of at least 2% in 2026 for this business.
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Elevance Health (ELV) stock has gained about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance and Upgraded Outlook.
Elevance Health significantly surpassed analyst expectations in its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report released on July 15, 2026. The company reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.45, exceeding the consensus estimate of $6.21 by $1.24. Additionally, operating revenue reached $49.83 billion, surpassing analyst projections of $48.88 billion. Following these strong results, Elevance Health raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $27.00.
2. Positive Future Outlook, Driven by Expected Medicaid Margin Improvement and Robust Medicare Advantage Performance.
Management conveyed a positive outlook for future growth, projecting at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027. The company also indicated that fiscal year 2026 is expected to be the trough year for Medicaid margins, with improvements anticipated in 2027 as rates align more closely with costs. Concurrently, the Medicare Advantage segment continued its strong performance, positioning the company to achieve an operating margin of at least 2% in 2026 for this business.
3. Reaffirmation of Guidance and Favorable Analyst Sentiment.
Elevance Health further boosted investor confidence by reaffirming its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $27.00 at the Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference on September 10, 2026. During the conference, the company's Chief Financial Officer also stated that fiscal Q3 adjusted earnings were tracking ahead of prior guidance. This sustained positive outlook contributed to a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating from brokerages, with an average 12-month price target ranging from approximately $440.90 to $457.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.8% change in ELV stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 389.90 | 412.56 | 5.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 200,415 | 201,113 | 0.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.6% | 2.5% | -5.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.3 | 18.0 | 10.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 220 | 217 | 1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ELV | 5.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.3% | 2.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 12.2% | 29.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 30.8% change in ELV stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 46.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 315.38 | 412.56 | 30.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 199,125 | 201,113 | 1.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.8% | 2.5% | -13.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.3 | 18.0 | 46.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 221 | 217 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 30.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ELV | 30.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.2% | 9.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.2% | 28.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.8% change in ELV stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 38.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 310.74 | 412.56 | 32.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 189,254 | 201,113 | 6.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.8% | 2.5% | -12.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.1 | 18.0 | 38.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 225 | 217 | 3.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.8% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ELV | 32.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.9% | 11.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 23.7% | 35.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.5% change in ELV stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 419.00 | 412.56 | -1.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 165,712 | 201,113 | 21.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.8% | 2.5% | -35.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.7 | 18.0 | 14.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 237 | 217 | 9.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ELV | -1.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 12.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 31.9% | 44.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ELV Return | 46% | 12% | -7% | -21% | -3% | 21% | 41% |
| Peers Return | 33% | 11% | -8% | -22% | 5% | 33% | 47% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ELV Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 33% | 67% | 67% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 58% | 43% | 42% | 55% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ELV Max Drawdown | -15% | -16% | -19% | -34% | -39% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -19% | -23% | -35% | -38% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: UNH, CVS, CI, HUM, CNC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ELV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 202 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 213 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 316 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 235 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -67.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 204.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1698 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Elevance Health's stock fell -4.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 4.8% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ELV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 213 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 316 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 235 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -67.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 204.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1698 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Elevance Health's stock fell -4.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 4.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Elevance Health (ELV)
Elevance Health Inc. (ELV) operates as a leading health benefits company dedicated to improving the health and well-being of individuals and communities. Its core mission is to support consumers throughout their entire care journey, ensuring they have access to the necessary medical care, support, and resources to lead healthier lives.
The company offers a comprehensive portfolio of integrated health solutions. These include traditional medical benefits, digital health tools, pharmacy services, behavioral health programs, and various clinical and care management solutions. These diverse offerings are designed to provide holistic support, covering a wide spectrum of healthcare needs.
Elevance Health serves a substantial market, reaching approximately 118 million people across the United States. Its primary customers are individuals, families, and communities who rely on its extensive network and services to manage their health and navigate the complex healthcare landscape.
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Elevance Health is a large health benefits provider, similar to UnitedHealth Group.
Think of it as a major health insurer and care facilitator, much like Cigna or Aetna.
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- Health Benefit Plans: Elevance Health provides a portfolio of medical plans and health benefits that connect individuals, families, and communities to necessary medical care.
- Pharmacy Solutions: The company offers services related to prescription drug management, likely including pharmacy benefit management (PBM) and access to essential medications.
- Behavioral Health Services: Elevance Health provides solutions focused on mental health and substance use disorder treatment and support.
- Clinical and Care Management Programs: These solutions encompass a range of services designed to support the entire care journey, including disease management, care coordination, and wellness programs.
- Digital Health Solutions: Elevance Health leverages digital tools and platforms to provide convenient access to health resources, virtual care, and personalized health management.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Elevance Health (ELV) operates as a health benefits company, primarily serving individuals through various channels. While it contracts with employers and government entities, its core focus, as indicated by serving "approximately 118 million people," is on providing health solutions directly to individuals and their families. Therefore, its major customer categories are best described by the types of individuals it serves:
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Individuals covered by employer-sponsored plans: These are employees and their dependents whose health benefits are provided through their employers, with Elevance Health acting as the plan administrator and insurer. This represents a significant portion of its commercial business.
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Individuals enrolled in government-sponsored programs: This category includes seniors participating in Elevance Health's Medicare Advantage and Medicare Part D plans, as well as individuals covered by Medicaid plans administered by Elevance Health on behalf of various state governments.
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Individuals purchasing directly: These are people who purchase health insurance plans directly from Elevance Health, often through public health insurance marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act (ACA), or sometimes off-exchange.
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Gail Boudreaux, President and Chief Executive Officer
Gail Boudreaux was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Elevance Health in November 2017. Prior to joining Elevance Health, she founded her own healthcare consulting company, GKB Global Health, LLC, in 2015. She served as CEO of UnitedHealthcare, the largest division of UnitedHealth Group, from January 2011 to November 2014, where she was responsible for approximately $120 billion in revenue and managed over 60,000 employees. Her extensive career in the healthcare industry also includes executive leadership positions at Health Care Service Corporation and Aetna, Inc., and she was President of Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Illinois. Her background highlights over three decades of experience in leading multi-billion dollar businesses within the health insurance sector.
Mark Kaye, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mark Kaye serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Elevance Health. In this role, he is responsible for overseeing the company's financial operations, including financial planning and analysis, treasury, investor relations, tax, and internal audit. Effective February 26, 2026, his responsibilities will expand to include oversight of Carelon, Elevance Health's healthcare services operations.
Peter Haytaian, Executive Vice President and President of Carelon and CarelonRx
Peter Haytaian is Executive Vice President and President of Carelon and CarelonRx, where he is responsible for the strategic direction, performance, and growth of Carelon's diversified assets and services, including pharmacy, behavioral health, complex and chronic care, and advanced analytics. He previously held roles within Elevance Health as Executive Vice President and President of Commercial Health Benefits, and Executive Vice President and President of Government Health Benefits. Mr. Haytaian will transition from this role effective May 4, 2026, to serve as a Special Advisor through December 31, 2026.
Felicia Norwood, Executive Vice President and Chief Health Benefits Officer
Felicia Norwood is Executive Vice President and Chief Health Benefits Officer. Effective February 26, 2026, she will assume responsibility for a consolidated Health Benefits organization, combining the company's Commercial and Government health benefits businesses under a single structure. She previously served as the company's government business division president since June 2018, overseeing the strategic direction and operations of its Medicaid, Medicare, and federal government solutions businesses.
Morgan Kendrick, Executive Vice President and President of Commercial and Specialty Health Benefits
Morgan Kendrick serves as Executive Vice President and President of Commercial and Specialty Health Benefits, a position he has held since October 2021. He is responsible for the strategic direction, performance, and growth of Elevance Health's commercial business, which includes national accounts, individual and local group business, and specialty products. Mr. Kendrick has been with the company since 1995, having held numerous leadership roles in commercial businesses, including President of Anthem National Accounts/Central Markets and President and General Manager for Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Georgia.
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Key Risks to Elevance Health (ELV)
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Regulatory Scrutiny and Potential Sanctions related to Medicare Advantage
Elevance Health faces significant risk due to regulatory scrutiny and potential sanctions from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). Specifically, the company received a notice from CMS threatening intermediate sanctions, including the suspension of new enrollments for certain Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug plans and restrictions on marketing activities, effective March 31, 2026. These sanctions stem from alleged noncompliance with risk-adjustment data submission rules and reporting overpayments. This regulatory action poses a direct threat to a key growth area for Elevance Health and is considered a central overhang for the company.
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Rising Medical Costs and Healthcare Utilization
The company is exposed to the risk of rising medical costs and increased healthcare utilization, particularly within its Medicare Advantage and Medicaid plans. This trend has put pressure on profitability, leading to challenges in managing costs effectively. Persistent medical cost pressures and adverse risk-pool changes have negatively impacted margins in Medicaid and individual exchange businesses.
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Competitive Pressures and Dynamic Market Landscape
Elevance Health operates in a highly competitive and dynamic U.S. health insurance sector. The company faces intense competition from large, diversified managed care organizations, as well as new entrants leveraging technology. Challenges include maintaining competitive pricing and underwriting, adapting to continuous reshaping of the industry through mergers and alliances, and navigating shifts in market share. The need for innovation in product design and digital health is crucial for differentiation in this environment.
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The aggressive entry and expansion of major technology and retail giants (such as Amazon and Walmart) into various facets of the healthcare delivery and benefits ecosystem. These companies are leveraging their vast resources, technological prowess, and customer-centric models to offer services like pharmacy benefits, direct-to-consumer primary care, telehealth, and other clinical solutions. This directly challenges traditional health benefits companies like Elevance Health by disrupting established value chains, potentially offering more streamlined and cost-effective alternatives, and shifting consumer expectations for convenience and digital integration in healthcare.
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Elevance Health (ELV) operates in several large addressable markets within the United States.
The company's main products and services and their estimated market sizes in the U.S. are as follows:
- Health Benefits/Health and Medical Insurance: The U.S. health and medical insurance market is projected to be approximately USD 1.65 trillion in 2026, with a further projection to reach USD 2.15 trillion by 2031. Other estimates for the U.S. health insurance market include USD 613.0 billion in 2024, growing to USD 1,161.7 billion by 2032, and USD 469.8 billion in 2025, estimated to reach USD 641.1 billion by 2034. The U.S. group health insurance market alone was estimated at USD 1.41 trillion in 2024.
- Pharmacy Benefits Management (PBM): The U.S. pharmacy benefit management market is estimated to be approximately USD 626.47 billion in 2026. Another estimate for the U.S. PBM market indicates a size of USD 504.08 billion in 2026, projected to reach around USD 1,041.11 billion by 2034. The market was valued at USD 587.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to be USD 638.0 billion in 2025.
- Behavioral Health Services: The U.S. behavioral health market was valued at approximately USD 89 billion in 2024 (other sources indicate USD 87.82 billion in 2024 or USD 83.78 billion). This market is expected to grow to around USD 165.4 billion by 2034.
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Elevance Health (ELV) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
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Growth in the Carelon Segment: The Carelon segment, encompassing CarelonRx (pharmacy benefits) and Carelon Services, is consistently highlighted as a significant driver of revenue growth. This growth is fueled by increased pharmacy product revenue, the expansion of Carelon Services' risk-based solutions, and strategic acquisitions within this segment.
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Medicare Advantage (MA) Membership Growth: Elevance Health is actively pursuing and achieving substantial growth in its Medicare Advantage membership. This expansion in MA enrollment is a key component of its Health Benefits segment's revenue strategy.
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Higher Premium Yields and Pricing Discipline: The company benefits from higher premium yields and disciplined pricing strategies within its Health Benefits segment. This effective management of premium rates for its core insurance offerings contributes to top-line growth.
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Strategic Acquisitions: Elevance Health emphasizes strategic acquisitions as a crucial element of its growth strategy. These acquisitions, particularly in diversified health services and technology, are intended to bolster its capabilities and diversify revenue streams. Examples include the acquisition of CareBridge (home-based care) and Paragon Healthcare (infusion services).
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Expansion of Affordable Care Act (ACA) Plans and New Primary Care Platforms: The company is expanding its Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans into new states and exploring broader market expansion. Additionally, initiatives like the launch of Mosaic Health, a national primary care delivery platform, contribute to new service offerings and market opportunities.
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Share Repurchases
- Elevance Health repurchased $2.605 billion of its common stock in 2025.
- The company executed share buybacks of $2.9 billion in 2024 and $2.676 billion in 2023.
- As of December 31, 2025, Elevance Health had approximately $6.7 billion of Board-approved share repurchase authorization remaining.
Share Issuance
- Elevance Health's shares outstanding have consistently declined over the past few years, from 0.247 billion at the end of 2021 to 0.222 billion at the end of 2025, indicating net share repurchases rather than issuance.
Outbound Investments
- Elevance Health actively pursues acquisitions to expand its reach and revenue, including CareBridge (a home-based care company) acquired in late 2024, and Paragon Healthcare (an infusion services company) in January 2024.
- These recent acquisitions, including CareBridge and Paragon Healthcare, are projected to contribute $1.2 billion in annual revenue by 2026.
- In 2021, the company expanded its reach through the acquisition of MMM.
Capital Expenditures
- For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, Elevance Health's Capital Expenditures amounted to approximately $1.1 billion.
- The company makes targeted investments to scale Carelon's capabilities, support its workforce, and accelerate technology adoption across the enterprise.
- Significant investment is also directed towards advanced technologies to achieve ambitious revenue targets from digital solutions and strengthening its operational foundation.
Peer Outperformance in Managed Health Care
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 7 | 10.7% | 83.2% | 172.0% | SNYR 510% · CAH 393% · MCK 338% |
| Managed Health Care ← | 8 | 39.5% | -2.2% | 0.7% | OSCR 85% · HQY 50% · ELV 17% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 22.4% | 42.5% | -0.3% | HIMS 221% · RDNT 165% · DGX 76% |
| Health Care Facilities | 24 | 8.4% | 5.6% | -12.6% | NHC 275% · THC 265% · ENSG 131% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | -1.3% | -5.7% | -21.9% | POCI 10325% · UFPT 340% · GKOS 203% |
| Health Care Supplies | 12 | 18.9% | -10.5% | -38.3% | LNTH 293% · HAE 51% · MMSI 20% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 62 | -6.0% | 11.4% | -40.3% | LQDA 2445% · INDV 1127% · ETON 998% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 109 | 0.9% | -22.0% | -68.2% | SNWV 1622% · MEDP 231% · AXGN 175% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -29.6% | -52.1% | -79.8% | SPOK 77% · HSTM 2% · VEEV -12% |
| Biotechnology | 364 | -2.8% | -27.6% | -80.1% | DNTH 1216% · CELZ 1074% · ELVN 1050% |
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Peer Comparisons
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 327.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 81.6 |
| Rev LTM | 242,137 |
| Op Inc LTM | 11,462 |
| FCF LTM | 9,032 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,577 |
| CFO LTM | 10,013 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,825 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -4.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -4.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 81.6 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 12.0 |
| P/EBIT | 12.7 |
| P/E | 21.0 |
| P/CFO | 10.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 37.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 32.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 23.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 18.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -70.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Benefits | 167,094 | 150,275 | 148,571 | 138,484 | 121,728 |
| CarelonRx | 43,400 | 35,961 | 33,835 | 28,526 | 25,431 |
| Carelon Services | 28,316 | 17,961 | 14,147 | 12,860 | 10,130 |
| Net investment income | 2,194 | 2,051 | 1,825 | 1,485 | 1,378 |
| Corporate & Other | 463 | 309 | 479 | 399 | 95 |
| Net losses on financial instruments | -653 | -445 | -694 | -550 | 318 |
| Eliminations | -41,689 | -29,302 | -26,823 | -24,609 | -20,441 |
| Total | 199,125 | 176,810 | 171,340 | 156,595 | 138,639 |
| $ Mil | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCB | 4,000 | |||
| 4SB | 972 | |||
| Health Care | 4,288 | 3,459 | 1,505 | |
| Specialty | 524 | 388 | 101 | |
| Total | 4,972 | 4,812 | 3,847 | 1,606 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $412.56 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 89.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/29/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $395.90 | $359.12 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 4.2% | 14.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.3% | 35.2% |
| Downside Capture | -42.98 | -0.25 |
| Upside Capture | -7.76 | 35.78 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 1.0% | 12.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.06 | 0.28 | 0.07 | 0.23 | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| Up Beta | -0.51 | 0.07 | -0.51 | 0.25 | 0.06 | 0.34 |
| Down Beta | 1.06 | 1.67 | 0.97 | 1.11 | 0.98 | 0.33 |
| Up Capture | 54% | -20% | -6% | 15% | 18% | 2% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 35 | 71 | 133 | 397 |
| Down Capture | -23% | 31% | -9% | -43% | -2% | 35% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 29 | 56 | 118 | 354 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ELV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELV | 37.3% | 35.1% | 0.95 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 24.2% | 16.1% | 1.16 | 34.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 12.8% | 0.82 | 12.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.7% | 29.3% | 0.50 | 6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 47.3% | 20.7% | 1.76 | 0.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 13.5% | 0.10 | 14.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -34.6% | 43.9% | -0.84 | 15.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ELV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELV | 3.6% | 29.7% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.9% | 15.2% | 0.21 | 51.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.3% | 17.2% | 0.54 | 24.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.8% | 0.80 | 3.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 19.6% | 0.46 | 4.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.5% | 18.9% | -0.08 | 25.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.4% | 52.5% | 0.38 | 9.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ELV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELV | 14.3% | 31.2% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.5% | 16.7% | 0.51 | 62.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.71 | 45.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.3% | 0.59 | 2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 18.1% | 0.39 | 14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 40.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.0% | 66.1% | 1.02 | 7.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/17/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/15/2026 | -8.5% | -7.8% | -6.5% |
| 4/22/2026 | 0.0% | 10.6% | 20.8% |
| 1/28/2026 | 5.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 10/21/2025 | -1.2% | -3.3% | -8.3% |
| 7/17/2025 | -12.2% | -13.9% | -14.3% |
| 4/22/2025 | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| 1/23/2025 | 2.7% | 2.4% | -1.4% |
| 10/17/2024 | -10.6% | -16.4% | -18.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -3.8% | -4.8% |
| Max Positive | 7.7% | 10.8% | 20.8% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -16.4% | -18.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/15/2026 | -8.5% | -7.8% | -6.5% |
| 4/22/2026 | 0.0% | 10.6% | 20.8% |
| 1/28/2026 | 5.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 10/21/2025 | -1.2% | -3.3% | -8.3% |
| 7/17/2025 | -12.2% | -13.9% | -14.3% |
| 4/22/2025 | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| 1/23/2025 | 2.7% | 2.4% | -1.4% |
| 10/17/2024 | -10.6% | -16.4% | -18.1% |
| 4/18/2024 | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.9% |
| 1/24/2024 | 0.3% | 4.3% | 8.5% |
| 10/18/2023 | 0.8% | -2.8% | -1.9% |
| 7/19/2023 | 4.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% |
| 4/19/2023 | -5.3% | -4.6% | -4.8% |
| 1/25/2023 | 3.6% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| 10/19/2022 | 2.0% | 9.6% | -0.4% |
| 7/20/2022 | -7.6% | -5.7% | -1.3% |
| 1/26/2022 | -2.4% | -0.1% | 0.6% |
| 10/20/2021 | 7.7% | 10.8% | 9.1% |
| 7/21/2021 | -1.6% | -1.9% | -4.8% |
| 4/21/2021 | 0.8% | -1.3% | 3.0% |
| 1/27/2021 | -7.2% | -4.3% | -3.9% |
| 10/28/2020 | -4.4% | -1.8% | 3.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -3.8% | -4.8% |
| Max Positive | 7.7% | 10.8% | 20.8% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -16.4% | -18.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/15/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/17/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/17/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/17/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/18/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/19/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/15/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/17/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/17/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/17/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/18/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/19/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/20/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/21/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/21/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/18/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/19/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/23/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/16/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/15/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Cash Flow | Reported | 6.00 Bil | 9.1% | Raised | Guidance: 5.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 20.1 | 1.3% | Raised | Guidance: 19.9 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 27 | 0.9% | Raised | Guidance: 26.8 for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Adjusted EPS Growth | Reported | 12.0% | ||||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Cash Flow | Reported | 5.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 19.9 | -11.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 22.3 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 26.8 | 4.9% | Raised | Guidance: 25.5 for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Cash Flow | Reported | 5.50 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Total Operating Revenue | Reported | |||||||
| 2026 GAAP Diluted EPS | Reported | 22.3 | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 25.5 | -15.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 30 for 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/21/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Benefit Expense Ratio | Reported | 0.9 | ||||||
| 2025 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 30 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 30 for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boudreaux, Gail | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 7172026 | 367.79 | 2,725 | 1,002,230 | 63,251,198 | Form |
| 2 | Peru, Ramiro G | Direct | Buy | 7172026 | 366.05 | 1,000 | 366,050 | 3,992,873 | Form | |
| 3 | Penczek, Ronald W | CAO & Controller | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 403.16 | 369 | 148,766 | 1,507,818 | Form |
| 4 | Dixon, Robert L JR | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 401.77 | 151 | 60,667 | 4,312,599 | Form | |
| 5 | Penczek, Ronald W | CAO & Controller | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 403.13 | 1,531 | 617,192 | 1,656,461 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boudreaux, Gail | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 7172026 | 367.79 | 2,725 | 1,002,230 | 63,251,198 | Form |
| 2 | Peru, Ramiro G | Direct | Buy | 7172026 | 366.05 | 1,000 | 366,050 | 3,992,873 | Form | |
| 3 | Penczek, Ronald W | CAO & Controller | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 403.16 | 369 | 148,766 | 1,507,818 | Form |
| 4 | Dixon, Robert L JR | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 401.77 | 151 | 60,667 | 4,312,599 | Form | |
| 5 | Penczek, Ronald W | CAO & Controller | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 403.13 | 1,531 | 617,192 | 1,656,461 | Form |
| 6 | Schulman, Amy W | Direct | Sell | 3232026 | 287.50 | 26 | 7,475 | 62,675 | Form | |
| 7 | Kendrick, Charles Morgan JR | EVP & President, Commercial | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 284.92 | 3,196 | 910,604 | 3,359,492 | Form |
| 8 | Collis, Steven H | Direct | Buy | 3062026 | 289.84 | 3,000 | 869,520 | 1,054,728 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 17, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Ground Investment Management LLP | $100.7 Mil | 18.7% | 5 | ADD +5.5% | 13F |
| Brave Warrior Advisors, LLC | $328.6 Mil | 8.1% | 36 | TRIM -10.3% | 13F |
| DKRT Investments Corp. | $27.8 Mil | 7.0% | 48 | ADD +35.7% | 13F |
| Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb L.P. | $406.3 Mil | 6.7% | 50 | Hold | 13F |
| Ranmore Fund Management Ltd | $40.0 Mil | 5.3% | 20 | ADD +20.9% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $149.2 Mil | 4.9% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Redwood Capital Management, LLC | $24.8 Mil | 3.7% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Firetrail Investments PTY LTD | $9.5 Mil | 3.2% | 28 | ADD +5.1% | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $21.7 Mil | 3.1% | 31 | ADD +17.6% | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $12.9 Mil | 3.0% | 42 | ADD +35.1% | 13F |
| Stanley Capital Management, LLC | $17.1 Mil | 2.9% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Vulcan Value Partners, LLC | $86.9 Mil | 2.3% | 33 | TRIM -23.2% | 13F |
| Cooperman Leon G | $66.7 Mil | 2.2% | 41 | TRIM -33.1% | 13F |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $1.7 Bil | 2.1% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $6.0 Mil | 1.4% | 28 | TRIM -25.5% | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $18.2 Mil | 0.6% | 44 | New | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $17.4 Mil | 0.2% | 29 | TRIM -59.5% | 13F |
| Loews Corp | $14.1 Mil | 0.1% | 25 | ADD +33.3% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $18.2 Mil | 0.6% | 44 | New | 13F |
| DKRT Investments Corp. | $27.8 Mil | 7.0% | 48 | ADD +35.7% | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $12.9 Mil | 3.0% | 42 | ADD +35.1% | 13F |
| Loews Corp | $14.1 Mil | 0.1% | 25 | ADD +33.3% | 13F |
| Ranmore Fund Management Ltd | $40.0 Mil | 5.3% | 20 | ADD +20.9% | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $21.7 Mil | 3.1% | 31 | ADD +17.6% | 13F |
| High Ground Investment Management LLP | $100.7 Mil | 18.7% | 5 | ADD +5.5% | 13F |
| Firetrail Investments PTY LTD | $9.5 Mil | 3.2% | 28 | ADD +5.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Knots Management, LLC | $179.3 Mil | 20.7% | 12 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $170.8 Mil | 2.7% | 39 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Locust Wood Capital Advisers, LLC | $49.8 Mil | 1.2% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| North Peak Capital Management, LLC | $48.7 Mil | 5.3% | 9 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Archon Partners LLC | $7.0 Mil | 0.7% | 42 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $17.4 Mil | 0.2% | 29 | TRIM -59.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Cooperman Leon G | $66.7 Mil | 2.2% | 41 | TRIM -33.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $6.0 Mil | 1.4% | 28 | TRIM -25.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Vulcan Value Partners, LLC | $86.9 Mil | 2.3% | 33 | TRIM -23.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Brave Warrior Advisors, LLC | $328.6 Mil | 8.1% | 36 | TRIM -10.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $1.7 Bil | 2.1% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb L.P. | $406.3 Mil | 6.7% | 50 | Hold | 13F |
| Brave Warrior Advisors, LLC | $328.6 Mil | 8.1% | 36 | TRIM -10.3% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $149.2 Mil | 4.9% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| High Ground Investment Management LLP | $100.7 Mil | 18.7% | 5 | ADD +5.5% | 13F |
| Vulcan Value Partners, LLC | $86.9 Mil | 2.3% | 33 | TRIM -23.2% | 13F |
| Cooperman Leon G | $66.7 Mil | 2.2% | 41 | TRIM -33.1% | 13F |
| Ranmore Fund Management Ltd | $40.0 Mil | 5.3% | 20 | ADD +20.9% | 13F |
| DKRT Investments Corp. | $27.8 Mil | 7.0% | 48 | ADD +35.7% | 13F |
| Redwood Capital Management, LLC | $24.8 Mil | 3.7% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $21.7 Mil | 3.1% | 31 | ADD +17.6% | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $18.2 Mil | 0.6% | 44 | New | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $17.4 Mil | 0.2% | 29 | TRIM -59.5% | 13F |
| Stanley Capital Management, LLC | $17.1 Mil | 2.9% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Loews Corp | $14.1 Mil | 0.1% | 25 | ADD +33.3% | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $12.9 Mil | 3.0% | 42 | ADD +35.1% | 13F |
| Firetrail Investments PTY LTD | $9.5 Mil | 3.2% | 28 | ADD +5.1% | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $6.0 Mil | 1.4% | 28 | TRIM -25.5% | 13F |
ELV Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Elevance Health is executing a disciplined turnaround in its government business, with 2026 defined as a 'trough year' for profitability. A strong management team and balance sheet support a credible plan to restore margins and return to at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027. This outlook is supported by aggressive, cash-funded share repurchases.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Recurring (Insurance & Services)(Number of Medical Members x Average Premium) + (Number of Fee-Based Members x Admin Fee) + Carelon Product & Service Revenue Medical Loss Ratio (the ratio of benefit expense to premium revenue), which is influenced by medical cost trends, utilization management, and premium rate adequacy.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests management is successfully repositioning the portfolio to navigate current margin pressures, setting up a return to target growth.
- Management raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to 'at least $27'.
- The company is confident in returning to at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027.
- Full-year operating cash flow guidance was raised to 'at least $6 billion'.
- Shareholder yield is a robust 7.7%, fully funded by free cash flow.
- Medicare Advantage quality is improving, with 59% of members in 4+ Star plans for 2027.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is that state reimbursement rates fail to cover elevated medical costs, causing the guided -1.75% Medicaid operating margin for 2026 to become a structural problem rather than a temporary trough.
- The full-year 2026 Medicaid operating margin outlook is approximately -1.75%.
- Total medical membership declined 1.5% year-over-year as of June 30, 2026.
- Latest-quarter revenue growth slowed to 1.4% year-over-year.
- The company plans to exit additional Medicaid markets over the next 12-18 months.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Medical Membership | 44.9 million members as of June 30, 2026 - Decelerating | The year-over-year decline was driven by attrition in the Medicaid business due to eligibility redeterminations, alongside decreases in Medicare Advantage and Employer Group Risk-Based businesses. This was partially offset by growth in the Employer Group Fee-Based segment. Management also noted a deliberate strategy to exit certain underperforming Medicaid markets. |
| Medicaid Operating Margin | Full-year 2026 guidance of approximately -1.75% - Decelerating | Management has labeled 2026 as a 'trough year' for Medicaid margins. The pressure stems from state reimbursement rates lagging the elevated medical cost trends that have resulted from a higher-acuity member mix following post-pandemic eligibility redeterminations. The company is taking actions to manage costs and expects improvement over time. |
| CarelonRx Quarterly Adjusted Scripts | 80.9 million (For the three months ended June 30, 2026) | Measures the volume of prescriptions managed by the pharmacy benefits business, a key driver of CarelonRx revenue and profitability. |
| Carelon Services Consumers Served | 92.4 million (For the three months ended June 30, 2026) | Represents the number of consumers receiving one or more services from Carelon Services, indicating the reach and adoption of its value-based care and health service capabilities. |
Strategic Repositioning or Structural Decline in Government Business?
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe management is prudently exiting unprofitable markets and repricing risk to restore margins, setting up a stronger, more profitable enterprise for 2027 and beyond.
CORE TENSION
Can margin recovery and Carelon's growth offset the -1.75% guided loss in Medicaid, a dynamic the market punished with a -13.0% post-earnings stock decline?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bull case. Management has a strong record of meeting its commitments and has reaffirmed its plan to return to 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue the negative Medicaid margins and market exits signal an inability to compete effectively, representing a permanent impairment of earnings power in a core business segment.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/9/2026 | Peer Cost Trend Read-Through Watch: UNH commentary on commercial and Medicare cost trends. Any reported acceleration will be perceived as a sector-wide negative. |
10/19/2026 | Medicaid Margin Update Watch: Any negative revision to the -1.75% margin guide or commentary suggesting the "trough" may extend into 2027. |
10/19/2026 | Company Earnings Report Watch: Elevance Health is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
October 2026 | Watch: A reversal of the recent improvement would negatively impact future bonus payments. |
10/27/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer CVS Health (CVS) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/27/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Centene (CNC) is scheduled to report earnings. |
No set date | Medicaid Market Exit Announcement Watch: A company press release or SEC filing announcing an exit from a specific state Medicaid program. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-09-10 | CMS Matter Formally Closed Details: On July 13, 2026, the company received a letter from CMS stating it completed all required steps regarding a Medicare Advantage risk adjustment data matter, and sanctions would not be imposed. | +5.4% $395.18 -> $416.54 |
2026-07-15 | Stock Drops After Earnings Details: Despite beating estimates and raising guidance, the stock had a two-day reaction of -13.0% around the July 15, 2026 earnings call. | -12.6% $424.94 -> $371.23 |
2026-07-15 | Q2 Results Beat, Guidance Raised Details: The company reported Q2 results ahead of outlook and raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $27.00. Management also raised guidance for 2026 Operating Cash Flow. | -12.6% $424.94 -> $371.23 |
2026-06-17 | Affordable Housing Investment Detailed Details: | -2.3% $396.08 -> $386.82 |
2026-04-22 | Guidance Raised After Q1 Details: Following strong Q1 results, the company raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $26.75. | +5.5% $325.36 -> $343.39 |
2026-04-22 | Q1 Results Beat Expectations Details: The company reported Q1 results ahead of expectations, citing underlying business strength and improving claims experience. The stock reacted positively, up 6.0% over two days. | +5.5% $325.36 -> $343.39 |
2026-03-31 | Leadership Appointments Announced Details: The company announced leadership appointments across its Health Benefits and Carelon organizations to strengthen execution, enhance operational performance, and drive continued growth. | +4.8% $282.41 -> $296.00 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: ELV trades at roughly 31% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (2.3x the market), around the 22nd percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
UNH - UnitedHealth
Scale and StabilityUnitedHealth's revenue is 2.2 times that of Elevance Health, providing superior scale. It has demonstrated more consistent operational performance in its government programs.
CVS - CVS Health
Integrated Health ServicesCVS Health offers a different business model with a massive retail pharmacy footprint and a large pharmacy benefit manager, providing more direct exposure to consumer health and pharmacy trends.
A large, diversified health insurer navigating a 'trough year' of margin pressure in its government business by aggressively repositioning its portfolio and leveraging its faster-growing Carelon health services arm.
Elevance Health is in a period of disciplined execution to address a dynamic and challenging environment, particularly in its Medicaid business where state reimbursement rates are lagging elevated medical cost trends. The company is actively repositioning its portfolio, including exiting unprofitable Medicaid markets and repricing its Medicare Advantage plans, to improve profitability. Growth and margin from the Carelon services segments are increasingly critical to the enterprise outlook. Management has expressed confidence in returning to at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027, supported by these actions and targeted investments in technology and AI.
News of favorable Medicaid rate updates from key states, reports of stabilizing or moderating medical cost trends, and evidence that margin improvement initiatives in Medicare Advantage are succeeding.
Continued announcements of inadequate Medicaid rate increases, acceleration in medical utilization, or failure to achieve the guided margin improvement in Medicare, which would challenge the 2027 growth narrative.
Minor fluctuations in quarterly membership outside of major policy shifts, or news about broad industry trends not specific to Elevance's key markets or segments.
Repricing Catalyst
Evidence that the company's portfolio repositioning and cost management actions are successfully stabilizing margins, particularly in Medicaid and Medicare, which would validate the path to achieving its 2027 growth targets.
Health Benefits
$168.2B TTM (84% of Total)What It Is
Offers a comprehensive suite of health plans (PPO, HMO, etc.) and administrative services to Individual, Employer Group, Medicare, and Medicaid members. It also provides specialty products like dental, vision, and stop loss insurance.
Who Pays & How
Employers, individuals, and government agencies pay premiums for risk-based health coverage or fees for administrative services to manage healthcare costs and provide members with access to a broad network of providers at negotiated rates.
Competition
CarelonRx
$43.9B TTM (22% of Total)What It Is
The pharmacy services business, which markets and offers a comprehensive portfolio of pharmacy services to its affiliated health plan customers as well as external customers. Services include claims adjudication, formulary management, home delivery, and specialty pharmacies.
Who Pays & How
Affiliated and external health plans pay for pharmacy benefit management (PBM) services to manage pharmacy and specialty drug costs and improve outcomes for members.
Competition
Carelon Services
$29.1B TTM (15% of Total)What It Is
Integrates physical, behavioral, pharmacy, and social-care capabilities to provide whole-health services to both internal and external customers. Services include care management, provider enablement, value-based networks, and analytics-driven services.
Who Pays & How
Internal and external health plans pay for services that manage complex areas of the healthcare system, leveraging data and insights to improve care quality and affordability.
Competition
Corporate & Other
$302M TTM (0% of Total)What It Is
Includes businesses that do not individually meet the quantitative threshold for an operating segment, along with unallocated corporate expenses and investments in long-term enterprise initiatives.
Who Pays & How
Competition
Elevance Health — Investor Video Playlist
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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