Duluth (DLTH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.35 | Market Cap: $115.4 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Duluth (DLTH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.35Market Cap: $115.4 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -85%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -135% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -27 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.5% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 253% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.0% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.5% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -68% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -85%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -135% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -27 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.5% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 253% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.0% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.5% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -68% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DLTH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, it is not possible to analyze actual stock movements or provide definitive reasons for a 49.3% change during that specific future period. However, based on the most recent available information for Duluth Holdings Inc. (DLTH) up to December 4, 2025, here are key points regarding the company's performance and analyst sentiment that could influence stock movement:
1. Stronger-than-Expected Q2 2025 Earnings: On September 4, 2025, Duluth Holdings reported Q2 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.03, significantly beating the consensus estimate of -$0.05. Quarterly revenue also exceeded analyst estimates, reaching $131.72 million against a forecast of $124.03 million. This positive earnings surprise led to a substantial pre-market stock surge of 50.21%.
2. Analyst Upgrade and Price Target Increase: Following the strong Q2 2025 results, Baird upgraded Duluth Holdings' stock rating from 'Neutral' to 'Outperform' on September 5, 2025. Simultaneously, Baird raised the price target for DLTH from $2.00 to $7.00, representing a 250% increase in the anticipated value. This upgrade and raised price target indicate increased confidence in the stock's future performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DLTH Return | 0% | 44% | -59% | -13% | -43% | 11% | -67% |
| Peers Return | 1% | 18% | -19% | 23% | 13% | 7% | 44% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DLTH Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 42% | 42% | 25% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 55% | 38% | 55% | 52% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DLTH Max Drawdown | -68% | 0% | -62% | -22% | -46% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -54% | -11% | -46% | -24% | -16% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CATO, TJX, ROST, BURL, GAP. See DLTH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DLTH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 325.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -68.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 217.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -77.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 343.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to CATO, TJX, ROST, BURL, GAP
In The Past
Duluth's stock fell -76.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/30/2021. A -76.5% loss requires a 325.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DLTH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Duluth
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 88.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.9 |
| Rev LTM | 13,091 |
| Op Inc LTM | 965 |
| FCF LTM | 375 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 531 |
| CFO LTM | 1,010 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,129 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.9 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 10.6 |
| P/E | 14.6 |
| P/CFO | 11.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 39.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -30.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9052025 | 10-Q 8/3/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6062025 | 10-Q 5/4/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3242025 | 10-K 2/2/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12062024 | 10-Q 10/27/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8302024 | 10-Q 7/28/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5312024 | 10-Q 4/28/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3222024 | 10-K 1/28/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/29/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9012023 | 10-Q 7/30/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6022023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3172023 | 10-K 1/29/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12022022 | 10-Q 10/30/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9022022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6032022 | 10-Q 5/1/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3252022 | 10-K 1/30/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12032021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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