CF Industries (CF)
Market Price (12/26/2025): $77.61 | Market Cap: $12.5 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
CF Industries (CF)
Market Price (12/26/2025): $77.61Market Cap: $12.5 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.6%, FCF Yield is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, CFO LTM is 2.6 Bil | Key risksCF key risks include [1] a competitive disadvantage against state-owned and government-subsidized global producers with lower-cost inputs and [2] the imposition of costly new environmental regulations and carbon border taxes. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.6%, FCF Yield is 14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, CFO LTM is 2.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13% |
| Key risksCF key risks include [1] a competitive disadvantage against state-owned and government-subsidized global producers with lower-cost inputs and [2] the imposition of costly new environmental regulations and carbon border taxes. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points that likely contributed to the -9.9% movement in CF Industries' stock between August 31, 2025, and December 26, 2025: 1. Downward Revision of EBITDA Estimates. CF Industries revised its EBITDA estimates for 2025 and 2026 downwards, with projections falling to $2.2 billion from previous estimates of $2.4 billion and $2.3 billion, respectively. This revision was largely attributed to anticipated cash flow pressures from investments and potential declines in nitrogen product prices.2. Cash Flow Pressures from Blue Point Project Investments. The company faced anticipated cash flow pressures due to significant capital expenditures related to investments in the Blue Point project. This substantial over $4 billion investment is expected to generate higher costs, particularly in 2027 and 2028.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.0% change in CF stock from 9/25/2025 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a -18.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9252025 | 12252025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 89.18 | 77.57 | -13.02% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6447.00 | 6736.00 | 4.48% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.20% | 20.47% | 1.37% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.16 | 9.06 | -18.83% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 162.90 | 161.00 | 1.17% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.03% |
Market Drivers
9/25/2025 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CF | -13.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.9% | 21.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 4.4% | 50.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.4% change in CF stock from 6/26/2025 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a -19.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 6262025 | 12252025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 89.62 | 77.57 | -13.45% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6129.00 | 6736.00 | 9.90% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.80% | 20.47% | -6.08% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.31 | 9.06 | -19.93% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 168.60 | 161.00 | 4.51% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.63% |
Market Drivers
6/26/2025 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CF | -13.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.1% | 12.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 4.9% | 31.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.0% change in CF stock from 12/25/2024 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a -29.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12252024 | 12252025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 83.39 | 77.57 | -6.98% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5983.00 | 6736.00 | 12.59% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.46% | 20.47% | 5.23% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.78 | 9.06 | -29.14% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 178.40 | 161.00 | 9.75% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.86% |
Market Drivers
12/25/2024 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CF | -7.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 23.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 8.8% | 34.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.3% change in CF stock from 12/26/2022 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a -39.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12262022 | 12252025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 84.62 | 77.57 | -8.33% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11118.00 | 6736.00 | -39.41% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 28.70% | 20.47% | -28.67% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.31 | 9.06 | 70.58% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 200.20 | 161.00 | 19.58% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.85% |
Market Drivers
12/26/2023 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CF | 1.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.3% | 21.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 10.1% | 33.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CF Return | -16% | 87% | 22% | -5% | 10% | -6% | 90% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 153% | 11% | -22% | -21% | 20% | 102% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 115% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CF Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 44% | 44% | 42% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CF Max Drawdown | -55% | -0% | -9% | -29% | -12% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -63% | -1% | -8% | -32% | -25% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NTR, MOS, LXU. See CF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 125.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 343 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -76.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 330.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 998 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MOS, FMC, CMP, LXU, IPI
In The Past
CF Industries's stock fell -49.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/26/2022. A -49.1% loss requires a 96.5% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for CF Industries:
- ExxonMobil for farm nutrients
- Alcoa for nitrogen fertilizer
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Ammonia: A foundational nitrogen fertilizer and industrial chemical used directly or as a feedstock for other nitrogen products.
- Granular Urea: A solid, high-concentration nitrogen fertilizer widely applied in agriculture globally.
- Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) Solution: A widely used liquid nitrogen fertilizer known for its ease of application.
- Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF): A urea-based solution used to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions in diesel engines.
- Ammonium Nitrate: A solid nitrogen fertilizer also utilized in industrial applications, including mining.
AI Analysis | Feedback
CF Industries (symbol: CF) primarily sells its hydrogen and nitrogen products to other companies.
Due to the commodity nature of its products (primarily nitrogen fertilizers and industrial nitrogen products) and a highly diversified customer base, CF Industries does not typically disclose specific "major customers" that account for a material portion of its revenue in its public filings. Therefore, rather than specific named customer companies, the major categories of its business-to-business customers include:
- Agricultural Distributors and Cooperatives: These entities purchase nitrogen fertilizers in bulk from CF Industries and then distribute and resell them to individual farmers and agricultural enterprises for crop nourishment. Many of these large regional cooperatives and national agricultural supply companies are privately held.
- Industrial Customers: Various manufacturing and industrial companies utilize CF Industries' nitrogen products for non-agricultural applications. These can include the production of resins, plastics, explosives, or for environmental applications such as diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) to reduce emissions.
- Wholesale Trading Companies: Particularly for international sales, CF Industries sells to global commodity trading firms that manage the logistics and distribution of bulk fertilizers and industrial chemicals to various end-markets worldwide.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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W. Anthony Will, President and Chief Executive Officer
Anthony Will has served as President and Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. since January 2014. He joined CF Industries in 2007. Before joining CF Industries, Mr. Will was a partner at Accenture Ltd., a global management consulting, technology services, and outsourcing company. Earlier in his career, he held positions at Sears, Roebuck and Company, Fort James Corporation as Vice President, Strategy & Corporate Development, and Boston Consulting Group as a Manager. Mr. Will will retire effective January 4, 2026.
Gregory D. Cameron, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Gregory D. Cameron joined CF Industries as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in June 2024. Mr. Cameron most recently served as President and Chief Financial Officer of Bloom Energy, a global leader in solid oxide fuel cell technology, a role he started in 2020. Prior to joining Bloom Energy, he held a series of senior roles at General Electric over 26 years, including President and Chief Executive Officer, global operations for GE Company from 2018 through 2019, and President and Chief Executive Officer, global legacy solutions for GE Capital from 2016 through 2018.
Christopher D. Bohn, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Christopher D. Bohn was appointed CF Industries' Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer and elected to the Company's Board of Directors in February 2024. As Chief Operating Officer, he leads CF Industries' manufacturing, distribution, sales, and supply chain organizations, as well as its clean energy initiatives. Mr. Bohn previously served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from 2019-2024. He joined CF Industries in September 2009. Prior to joining CF Industries, Mr. Bohn served as Chief Financial Officer for Hess Print Solutions and was Vice President global financial planning and analysis for Merisant Worldwide, Inc. Mr. Bohn has been elected to succeed W. Anthony Will as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective January 4, 2026.
Bert A. Frost, Executive Vice President, Sales, Market Development and Supply Chain
Bert A. Frost serves as the Executive Vice President, Sales, Market Development and Supply Chain at CF Industries.
Susan L. Menzel, Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer
Susan L. Menzel was named Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer in July 2023, overseeing CF Industries' human resources, information technology and legal functions. She joined the Company as Senior Vice President, Human Resources, in October 2017. Prior to joining CF Industries, Ms. Menzel served as Executive Vice President, Human Resources for CNO Financial Group. Before CNO, she was Senior Vice President, Human Resources for APAC Customer Services, Inc., and held roles of increasing responsibility for Sears, Roebuck & Company and Montgomery Ward, Inc.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to CF Industries' business are primarily driven by its position as a major producer in the global nitrogen fertilizer market and its reliance on natural gas as a primary feedstock.
- Volatility of Natural Gas Prices: CF Industries' operations are highly dependent on natural gas, which is the primary raw material for nitrogen fertilizer production. Fluctuations in natural gas prices directly impact the company's production costs and profit margins. Increased demand for natural gas, particularly in regions like the Gulf Coast, or other factors affecting supply and demand balances, can lead to rising natural gas prices, materially affecting the company's financial performance.
- Market Competition and Global Supply-Demand Balance: The nitrogen fertilizer market is characterized by intense price competition because nitrogen products are global commodities with little differentiation. CF Industries faces competition from numerous global producers, including state-owned and government-subsidized entities that may have access to lower-cost natural gas, financing, or other governmental support, placing CF Industries at a competitive disadvantage. An oversupply in the global nitrogen market or changes in the balance between global supply and demand can put downward pressure on selling prices, negatively impacting the company's financial condition and operating results.
- Regulatory and Environmental Risks: CF Industries operates within a highly regulated environment, particularly concerning environmental laws and greenhouse gas emissions. Stricter environmental regulations, including potential new policies related to greenhouse gas emissions or carbon border adjustment mechanisms (such as the European Union's), could impose additional costs, require significant operational changes, and affect the company's profitability and flexibility. Although CF Industries is investing in decarbonization efforts, regulatory uncertainty remains a potential threat.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat for CF Industries is the accelerating global transition to low-carbon ammonia and hydrogen production. This shift, driven by decarbonization mandates, evolving customer preferences for products with lower carbon footprints, and increasing regulatory pressures (such as carbon pricing and emissions targets), poses a direct challenge to the long-term viability and competitiveness of CF Industries' existing "grey" ammonia production facilities, which rely on natural gas as a feedstock and energy source without carbon capture. While CF Industries is investing in green ammonia projects, the rapid development and scaling of green (produced using renewable energy via electrolysis) and blue (produced from natural gas with carbon capture and storage) ammonia technologies by competitors globally could lead to significant devaluation or obsolescence of their traditional assets and potential market share loss if their transition is not sufficiently fast or extensive.
AI Analysis | Feedback
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (symbol: CF) is a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, primarily for clean energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial applications. Its core products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and ammonium nitrate (AN). The addressable markets for their main products are as follows:
- Nitrogenous Fertilizers (Global): The global nitrogenous fertilizer market was valued at approximately USD 64.52 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 88.99 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.10%. Other estimates place the market at USD 63.83 billion in 2023, expected to reach USD 105.39 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 5.73%, or USD 174.4 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 232.3 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 5.91%. Asia Pacific is a dominant region in this market.
- Ammonia (Global): The global ammonia market was valued at USD 79.47 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 91.95 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 3.0%. Other estimates for the global ammonia market include USD 83.32 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 127.10 billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 4.3%, or USD 224.10 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 313.21 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 5.9%. Asia Pacific holds the largest market share, exceeding 55.9% in 2024. North America also contributes significantly to the demand for ammonia in agriculture and industrial refrigeration.
- Urea (Global): The global urea market was valued at USD 52.7 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 60.2 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 1.5%. Other valuations indicate a market size of USD 69.16 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 97.06 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 2.8%, or approximately 180 million tonnes in 2024, expected to grow to 276 million tonnes by 2035 with a CAGR of 3.97%. In terms of value, another source reported the market size at USD 139.71 billion in 2025, anticipated to reach USD 167.41 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 2.03%. Asia Pacific dominates the urea market with a share of over 60.7% in 2024.
- Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) (Global): The global UAN fertilizer market was valued at approximately USD 5.2 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 9.7 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 6.8%. Other estimates for the global UAN market include USD 5.65 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 8.54 billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 4.7%, or USD 7.56 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 10.19 billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 3.8%. In terms of volume, the global UAN market stood at approximately 23 million tonnes in 2022 and is anticipated to reach roughly 34 million tonnes by 2032. North America is the largest market, accounting for more than 40% of global UAN consumption and expected to consume over 10 million metric tons annually in 2024.
Market sizes for other products such as Ammonium Nitrate (AN) as a standalone market, Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF), Urea Liquor, Nitric Acid, and Aqua Ammonia were not specifically identified in the provided search results. While AN is a component of nitrogenous fertilizers and UAN, its individual market size was not available. CF Industries is noted as the largest producer of DEF in North America.
AI Analysis | Feedback
CF Industries (symbol: CF) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key factors:
- Significant Expansion into Low-Carbon Ammonia Production: CF Industries is making substantial investments to become a leading producer of blue and green ammonia, which are critical for the global transition to clean energy. The company is evaluating a proposed $2 billion low-carbon clean ammonia production facility in Ascension Parish, Louisiana, in a joint venture with POSCO Holdings, with production expected to commence in 2029. Additionally, a $198.5 million project at its Donaldsonville complex aims to capture CO2 emissions, enabling the production of up to 1.7 million tons of blue ammonia annually. CF Industries has also initiated a green ammonia project at Donaldsonville to produce approximately 20,000 tons per year. These initiatives are expected to tap into a meaningfully growing demand for low-carbon ammonia for new applications like power generation. The company has already commenced sales of premium low-carbon ammonia, including its first cargo shipment in October 2025.
- Sustained Strong Global Nitrogen Demand: The company anticipates robust global nitrogen demand to continue through 2025 and into 2026, driven by favorable conditions in agricultural markets, such as low global fertilizer inventories and strong planting seasons in North America. This consistent demand for traditional nitrogen-based fertilizers, including ammonia, granular urea, and urea ammonium nitrate, is a fundamental driver of revenue growth.
- Favorable Global Supply-Demand Dynamics and Pricing: CF Industries expects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to remain tight, or even tighten further through the end of the decade, as new production capacity is not keeping pace with demand growth. This dynamic is projected to support strong selling prices for nitrogen products. The company reported a substantial increase in average selling prices across all segments for the first nine months of 2025, contributing significantly to its net sales and adjusted gross margins.
- Increased Production Capacity and Operational Efficiency: CF Industries is leveraging its low-cost production advantage in North America and maintaining high operational efficiency to meet anticipated demand. The company achieved an exceptional 97% ammonia capacity utilization rate in the first nine months of 2025. Strategic investments, such as the Blue Point joint venture, are designed to significantly increase production capacity for low-carbon ammonia. These factors enable the company to produce and sell higher volumes of products efficiently, contributing to overall revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- CF Industries completed a $3 billion share repurchase program, authorized in 2022, by October 2025, repurchasing 37.6 million shares, which represented 19% of the outstanding shares at the program's start.
- The company authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program in May 2025, which is effective through December 2029.
- In 2024, CF Industries repurchased 18.8 million shares for $1.51 billion.
Inbound Investments
- In April 2025, CF Industries formed a joint venture with JERA Co., Inc. and Mitsui & Co., Ltd. to construct a low-carbon ammonia plant at its Blue Point Complex in Louisiana, with the estimated cost for the facility being approximately $4 billion.
Outbound Investments
- In December 2023, CF Industries acquired Incitec Pivot Limited's ammonia production facility in Waggaman, Louisiana, for approximately $1.675 billion, adding 880,000 tons of ammonia capacity to its network.
Capital Expenditures
- Projected capital expenditures for the full year 2025 are approximately $925 million, with about $575 million allocated to existing network activities and $300-$400 million for the Blue Point joint venture.
- Capital expenditures in 2024 totaled $518 million, and expected capital expenditures for 2026 are $750-$800 million.
- A primary focus of capital expenditures includes decarbonization initiatives, such as the development of an ultra-low emissions ammonia plant at the Blue Point complex, a $100 million investment in a carbon dioxide dehydration and compression unit at its Yazoo City Complex, and a carbon capture and sequestration project at the Donaldsonville Complex.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to CF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.1% | 7.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.2% | -1.2% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 48.2% | 48.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.4% | 27.4% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.5% |
| 03312023 | CF | CF Industries | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.6% | 17.4% | -16.4% |
| 09302020 | CF | CF Industries | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 50.3% | 87.1% | -16.3% |
| 02292020 | CF | CF Industries | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.0% | 27.6% | -42.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CF Industries
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 43.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.1 |
| Rev LTM | 9,315 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,560 |
| FCF LTM | 854 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,043 |
| CFO LTM | 1,867 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,228 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -11.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.1 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 7.6 |
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/CFO | 7.2 |
| Total Yield | 11.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -24.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -105.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $77.57 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 12.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/11/2005 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -23.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $80.99 | $84.28 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -4.2% | -8.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.9% | 33.3% |
| Downside Capture | 101.42 | 36.32 |
| Upside Capture | 13.36 | 23.74 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 21.9% | 23.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.77 | 0.64 | 0.48 | 0.12 | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| Up Beta | -0.51 | -0.09 | -0.19 | 0.15 | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| Down Beta | 0.85 | 0.55 | 0.79 | 0.31 | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| Up Capture | 66% | 27% | 16% | -12% | 17% | 11% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 21 | 31 | 63 | 133 | 384 |
| Down Capture | 132% | 128% | 84% | 30% | 53% | 80% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 20 | 31 | 62 | 114 | 362 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of CF With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -5.2% | 10.6% | 19.2% | 71.9% | 8.9% | 6.0% | -10.1% |
| Annualized Volatility | 33.1% | 20.0% | 19.5% | 19.3% | 15.3% | 17.1% | 35.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.12 | 0.39 | 0.78 | 2.69 | 0.36 | 0.18 | -0.12 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 34.6% | 23.6% | 6.5% | 43.8% | 21.7% | 15.9% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLB, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of CF With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 18.0% | 7.3% | 14.9% | 18.7% | 11.7% | 4.8% | 32.7% |
| Annualized Volatility | 36.4% | 18.9% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.7% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.55 | 0.29 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.51 | 0.17 | 0.60 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 40.8% | 26.7% | 12.1% | 38.0% | 22.8% | 11.6% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLB, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of CF With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 9.6% | 9.8% | 14.7% | 14.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 69.3% |
| Annualized Volatility | 40.4% | 20.8% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.70 | 0.83 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 54.6% | 42.3% | 4.1% | 39.8% | 33.6% | 12.9% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLB, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -4.2% | 0.2% | -8.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | -7.8% | -3.9% | -5.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | 0.8% | 6.5% | 14.9% |
| 2/19/2025 | -4.2% | -7.2% | -8.2% |
| 10/30/2024 | 0.6% | 1.6% | 10.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | 8.5% | 9.9% | 7.8% |
| 5/1/2024 | -5.3% | -6.1% | 3.0% |
| 2/14/2024 | -1.0% | 2.7% | 7.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 4.2% | 9.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -6.1% | -6.9% |
| Max Positive | 8.5% | 14.6% | 49.9% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -7.2% | -33.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Malik Ashraf K | Sr. VP, Manufacturing & D'istn | 6172025 | Sell | 99.95 | 5,498 | 549,535 | 1,455,798 | Form |
| 1 | Frost Bert A | EVP,Sales,MktDev&Supply Chain | 6172025 | Sell | 97.32 | 13,250 | 1,289,458 | 10,016,803 | Form |
| 2 | Menzel Susan L | EVP and Chief Admin. Officer | 1172025 | Sell | 96.00 | 1,500 | 144,000 | 8,878,656 | Form |
| 3 | Menzel Susan L | EVP and Chief Admin. Officer | 1142025 | Sell | 95.00 | 1,500 | 142,500 | 8,928,670 | Form |
| 4 | Malik Ashraf K | Sr. VP, Manufacturing & D'istn | 1142025 | Sell | 95.00 | 8,889 | 844,457 | 1,507,748 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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