Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX)
Market Price (10/29/2026): $9.76 | Market Cap: $645.8 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX)
Market Price (10/29/2026): $9.76Market Cap: $645.8 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -42% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106% Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.53, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -202 Mil Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21% Key risksBCAX key risks include [1] the pivotal trial outcome for its lead HNSCC candidate, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.53, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -202 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21% |
| Key risksBCAX key risks include [1] the pivotal trial outcome for its lead HNSCC candidate, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX) stock has lost about 65% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Results and Increasing Operating Expenses.
Bicara Therapeutics reported fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 11, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.82, which missed analysts' consensus estimates. This announcement was followed by a 14.32% drop in the stock price on the same day. The company's research and development expenses significantly increased to $45.8 million in fiscal Q2 2026, up from $24.8 million in fiscal Q2 2025, primarily due to the ongoing FORTIFI-HN01 pivotal trial. General and administrative expenses also rose to $14.2 million from $7.2 million in the comparative periods, contributing to a net loss of $55.4 million for the quarter and raising concerns about the long commercialization timeline.
2. Adverse Clinical Trial Results for a Competitor Intensified Market Competition.
A significant factor contributing to Bicara's stock decline was the positive Phase 3 trial results announced by Genmab for its competing drug, petosemtamab, in first-line recurrent or metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) on October 29, 2026. This news led to an approximate 44-45% decline in Bicara's stock on that day, as it directly impacted the commercial outlook for Bicara's lead program, ficerafusp alfa, which is also being developed for the same indication. The successful competitor trial validates next-generation EGFR-targeted therapies but creates substantial competitive pressure for Bicara.
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Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX) stock has lost about 65% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Results and Increasing Operating Expenses.
Bicara Therapeutics reported fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 11, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.82, which missed analysts' consensus estimates. This announcement was followed by a 14.32% drop in the stock price on the same day. The company's research and development expenses significantly increased to $45.8 million in fiscal Q2 2026, up from $24.8 million in fiscal Q2 2025, primarily due to the ongoing FORTIFI-HN01 pivotal trial. General and administrative expenses also rose to $14.2 million from $7.2 million in the comparative periods, contributing to a net loss of $55.4 million for the quarter and raising concerns about the long commercialization timeline.
2. Adverse Clinical Trial Results for a Competitor Intensified Market Competition.
A significant factor contributing to Bicara's stock decline was the positive Phase 3 trial results announced by Genmab for its competing drug, petosemtamab, in first-line recurrent or metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) on October 29, 2026. This news led to an approximate 44-45% decline in Bicara's stock on that day, as it directly impacted the commercial outlook for Bicara's lead program, ficerafusp alfa, which is also being developed for the same indication. The successful competitor trial validates next-generation EGFR-targeted therapies but creates substantial competitive pressure for Bicara.
3. Leadership Transition and Associated Uncertainty.
On August 11, 2026, Bicara Therapeutics announced a planned leadership transition where co-founder and CEO Claire Mazumdar will step down from her role effective January 1, 2027, to be succeeded by COO Ryan Cohlhepp. While positioned as a strategic evolution, such a change in top leadership can introduce uncertainty among investors for a clinical-stage biotechnology company that is preparing for potential commercialization of its lead asset.
4. Broader Macroeconomic Headwinds for Early-Stage Biotechnology.
Throughout the period, the overall market sentiment for small-cap, pre-revenue biotechnology companies remained cautious and mixed. Elevated Treasury yields, which at times exceeded 5.3%, created pressure on speculative biotechs like Bicara, as investors favored AI-led technology stocks over early-stage, cash-burning companies.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -67.1% change in BCAX stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.6% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.69 | 9.76 | -67.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 68 | -10.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BCAX | -67.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.4% | 7.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.3% | 9.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -50.9% change in BCAX stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.8% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.89 | 9.76 | -50.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 55 | 68 | -18.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BCAX | -50.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.1% | 13.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 23.1% | 13.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -38.2% change in BCAX stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.7% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.79 | 9.76 | -38.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 55 | 68 | -19.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BCAX | -38.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.9% | 15.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 30.8% | 17.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BCAX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 86.9% | 27.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 46.2% | 26.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BCAX Return | - | - | - | -26% | -3% | 4% | -25% |
| Peers Return | -24% | -23% | 25% | -12% | -3% | 108% | 30% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BCAX Win Rate | - | - | - | 25% | 67% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 47% | 48% | 47% | 45% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BCAX Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -50% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -53% | -35% | -50% | -49% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MGNX, ZYME, IOVA, REGN, MRK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/28/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BCAX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Bicara Therapeutics's stock fell -29.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 42.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | BCAX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Bicara Therapeutics's stock fell -29.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 42.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX)
Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative bifunctional therapies for patients with solid tumors. Their core strategy involves creating advanced antibodies designed to simultaneously target two critical pathways implicated in cancer growth and immune suppression. This dual-targeting approach aims to enhance anti-tumor activity and achieve more durable patient responses while minimizing the adverse effects typically associated with systemic drug exposure.
The company's lead product is ficerafusp alfa, a bifunctional antibody that combines an epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) directed antibody with a domain that binds to human transforming growth factor beta (TGF-ß). Ficerafusp alfa works by simultaneously blocking cancer cell-intrinsic EGFR signaling, which promotes survival and proliferation, and inhibiting the immunosuppressive TGF-ß signaling within the tumor microenvironment. A key design feature is its ability to direct the TGF-ß inhibitor specifically to the tumor site via EGFR binding, thereby concentrating therapeutic effect where it's needed most.
Bicara is initially developing ficerafusp alfa, in combination with pembrolizumab, as a first-line therapy for recurrent/metastatic (R/M) human papillomavirus-negative (HPV-negative) head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), a market with a significant unmet medical need. Promising Phase 1/1b clinical data in this population showed a 64% overall response rate, markedly higher than historical rates for pembrolizumab monotherapy. Bicara plans to initiate a pivotal Phase 2/3 trial for this indication late in 2024 or early 2025. The company also believes ficerafusp alfa has potential in other solid tumors, such as colorectal cancer and other squamous cell carcinomas, where preliminary activity has also been observed.
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Bicara is like MacroGenics or Regeneron for next-generation bispecific antibodies, designed to simultaneously attack cancer and reprogram its protective environment.
Bicara is like Seagen (now Pfizer) for precision oncology, but instead of delivering toxic payloads, their 'smart' antibodies deliver signals to disarm the tumor's defenses.
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- Ficerafusp alfa: A clinical-stage bifunctional antibody therapy combining EGFR and TGF-ß inhibition, initially developed for HPV-negative recurrent/metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.
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Claire Mazumdar, PhD, MBA – Chief Executive Officer
Claire Mazumdar is the founding Chief Executive Officer of Bicara Therapeutics. She previously served as the Head of Business Development and Corporate Strategy at Rheos Medicines, where she played a key role in supporting a major partnership with Roche. Prior to Rheos, she was a Senior Associate at Third Rock Ventures, focusing on company formation and supporting business development for portfolio companies. Mazumdar also serves as a Director of Noora Health and is a Director at Relay Therapeutics, Inc..
Ivan Hyep, MBA – Chief Financial Officer
Ivan Hyep brings over 15 years of experience in finance, strategy, and operations. Before joining Bicara Therapeutics as a member of the founding executive team in March 2021, he held positions as Head of Finance at MOMA Therapeutics and Director of Finance at Third Rock Ventures. Hyep began his career at Bain Capital, where he spent a decade in global private equity, indicating a strong background in managing companies backed by private equity firms.
Ryan Cohlhepp, PharmD – President & Chief Operating Officer
Ryan Cohlhepp serves as President and Chief Operating Officer at Bicara Therapeutics. He previously held the role of Senior Vice President of Operations at Rheos Medicines, Inc. from 2018 to 2020.
David Raben, MD – Chief Medical Officer
David Raben is the Chief Medical Officer at Bicara Therapeutics. Prior to this role, he served as the Head of Clinical Development for Oncology and Global Medical Affairs at bluebird bio, and held leadership positions at Pfizer and Takeda Oncology.
Lara Meisner, JD – Chief Legal Officer
Lara Meisner is the Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary for Bicara Therapeutics.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks for Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX) are:
-
Clinical Trial Success and Regulatory Approval of Ficerafusp Alfa: The company's future is critically dependent on the successful outcome of its pivotal Phase 2/3 trial for ficerafusp alfa in combination with pembrolizumab for recurrent/metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC), which it intends to initiate late in the fourth quarter of 2024 or early in the first quarter of 2025. Failure to achieve positive results in this trial, or subsequent inability to secure regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA), would severely impact the company's viability, as ficerafusp alfa is its lead and most advanced program.
-
Competition in the Oncology Market: Bicara Therapeutics operates in the highly competitive oncology market. While ficerafusp alfa has shown promising early data compared to pembrolizumab monotherapy, the current standard of care, there is a risk that existing therapies or other investigational drugs could prove more effective, safer, or gain market dominance, thereby limiting the market potential and commercial success of ficerafusp alfa even if approved.
-
Reliance on a Single Lead Product Candidate: Bicara Therapeutics is heavily concentrated on the development and potential commercialization of ficerafusp alfa. Although the company has a platform designed for bifunctional therapies and is exploring other potential indications (such as colorectal cancer and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma), the vast majority of its current value and future prospects are tied to the success of this single lead asset. A significant setback or failure in the development, approval, or commercialization of ficerafusp alfa would have a material adverse effect on the company.
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Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC)
- The global head and neck squamous cell carcinoma market was valued at approximately USD 2.35 billion in 2025 and is projected to exceed USD 5.46 billion by 2035, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 8.8% between 2026 and 2035. Other estimates place the global market at USD 2.53 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 6.25 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 12.00% from 2026 to 2033.
- For recurrent head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, across the seven major markets (U.S., EU4, UK, and Japan), the market size reached USD 1.6 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3.8 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.97% during 2025-2035.
- North America is a significant region within the global HNSCC market, with one report indicating it will account for over 52% of the market share by 2035. The U.S. head and neck cancer therapeutics market was valued at USD 0.83 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1.91 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 11.06% over the period of 2025-2032.
Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma (CSCC)
- The global cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC) treatment market was estimated at USD 13.69 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 14.68 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach approximately USD 27.54 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 7.24% between 2025 and 2034.
- Another report indicates the cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma market reached USD 8.0 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 14.0 billion by 2035 across the seven major markets (7MM), exhibiting a CAGR of 5.27% during 2025-2035.
- The global cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma market size is also reported to be USD 7.87 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 8.33 billion in 2026 at a CAGR of 5.8%, and further to USD 10.35 billion in 2030 at a CAGR of 5.6%.
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Here are 3 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX) over the next 2-3 years:
- Successful clinical development and regulatory approval of ficerafusp alfa for HPV-negative recurrent/metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC): Bicara Therapeutics' lead program, ficerafusp alfa, is undergoing a pivotal Phase 2/3 trial (FORTIFI-HN01) for this indication, with top-line data expected in mid-2027. The company has received Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the U.S. FDA, which could facilitate an accelerated regulatory pathway. Successful trial completion, regulatory approval, and the planned commercial launch targeted for 2028 are anticipated to be the primary drivers of future revenue. Analysts also speculate that ficerafusp alfa has the potential to become a "blockbuster" drug, capable of generating over $1 billion in peak annual revenues.
- Expansion of ficerafusp alfa into additional solid tumor indications: Beyond HNSCC, Bicara Therapeutics is evaluating ficerafusp alfa in other EGFR-driven advanced solid tumors, including colorectal cancer, cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC), and squamous cell carcinoma of the anal canal (SCAC). Preliminary activity has been observed in CSCC, and data from a Phase 1b expansion cohort in third-line colorectal cancer is expected in 2026. Advancing clinical development in these new indications would broaden ficerafusp alfa's market potential and open new revenue streams.
- Progression of new product candidates from their bifunctional therapy platform: Bicara Therapeutics has developed a proprietary platform designed to facilitate the development of other transformative bifunctional therapies. Advancing additional novel product candidates from this platform through preclinical and early clinical development could lead to future revenue opportunities through partnerships, licensing agreements, or subsequent product launches, thereby leveraging the company's core technology beyond its lead asset.
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Share Issuance
- Bicara Therapeutics completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on September 16, 2024, issuing 20,125,000 shares of common stock at $18.00 per share, which generated approximately $362 million in gross proceeds.
- The company closed an underwritten public offering on February 26, 2026, selling 8,581,250 shares of common stock and pre-funded warrants for 2,200,000 shares. This offering yielded approximately $172.5 million in gross proceeds.
Outbound Investments
- Bicara Therapeutics formed a subsidiary, Bicara Securities Corporation, in October 2023 under the laws of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures reported for the 12 months ending August 12, 2025, were approximately -$48,000.
- Annual capital expenditures for the most recent fiscal year (as of August 12, 2025) were -$0.05 million, with prior years reporting -$0.07 million, -$0.59 million, and -$0.19 million.
- The company primarily relies on third-party manufacturing and service agreements for its clinical trials and research and development, which contributes to lower direct capital expenditures.
Peer Outperformance in Biotechnology
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 8.6% | 52.6% | 97.9% | CAH 468% · MCK 380% · COR 183% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 40.1% | 49.1% | 16.2% | HIMS 271% · RDNT 137% · DGX 86% |
| Health Care Facilities | 25 | 1.3% | 24.8% | 0.5% | THC 274% · NHC 254% · EHC 152% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 26.0% | -1.0% | -4.3% | OSCR 78% · HQY 54% · ELV 3% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | -3.3% | 13.8% | -18.1% | UFPT 358% · GKOS 297% · PLSE 160% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 61 | -16.2% | 9.8% | -32.5% | LQDA 1113% · KNSA 770% · LLY 432% |
| Health Care Supplies | 11 | 19.3% | 1.8% | -38.4% | LNTH 337% · HAE 76% · MMSI 36% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 107 | -7.5% | 8.2% | -65.2% | NTRA 262% · AXGN 226% · MEDP 215% |
| Biotechnology ← | 365 | -22.5% | -17.6% | -80.0% | DNTH 1140% · ELVN 1127% · TRVI 1107% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -30.9% | -55.8% | -82.1% | VEEV 1% · DOCS -51% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 22.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| Rev LTM | 246 |
| Op Inc LTM | -98 |
| FCF LTM | -93 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -90 |
| CFO LTM | -92 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -89 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -29.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -24.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -186.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -38.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -153.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -39.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -157.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Research and development of its product | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research and development of its product | -156 | -82 | -40 |
| Total | -156 | -82 | -40 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research and development of its product | -138 | -68 | -52 |
| Total | -138 | -68 | -52 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Research and development of its product | 234 | 7 |
| Total | 234 | 7 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $9.76 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/13/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -67.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $20.37 | $21.29 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -52.1% | -54.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 103.5% | 69.8% |
| Downside Capture | 294.76 | 100.74 |
| Upside Capture | -292.94 | 19.72 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 4.3% | 15.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.58 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.23 |
| Up Beta | -0.45 | -2.17 | -0.67 | 0.84 | 1.03 | 0.18 |
| Down Beta | 4.80 | 4.43 | 1.74 | -0.02 | 0.54 | -0.67 |
| Up Capture | -81% | -2% | 27% | 107% | 127% | 121% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 18 | 28 | 67 | 127 | 257 |
| Down Capture | 269% | 333% | 270% | 163% | 100% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 24 | 36 | 58 | 124 | 248 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BCAX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCAX | -42.7% | 69.8% | -0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 24.5% | 16.3% | 1.15 | 17.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.7% | 12.7% | 0.72 | 15.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.8% | 28.3% | 0.05 | 12.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.4% | 20.6% | 1.80 | -6.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 13.9% | -0.05 | 16.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.4% | 43.4% | -0.68 | 13.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BCAX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCAX | -15.7% | 79.5% | -0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.3% | 15.2% | 0.34 | 26.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 27.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 18.9% | 0.74 | 5.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.1% | 19.5% | 0.35 | -1.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.6% | 18.9% | -0.08 | 24.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 17.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BCAX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCAX | -8.2% | 79.5% | -0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 11.7% | 16.7% | 0.57 | 26.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 27.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.4% | 0.60 | 5.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | -1.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 24.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.3% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 17.6% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/14/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/11/2026 | -14.3% | -10.1% | -14.7% |
| 5/11/2026 | 1.5% | -10.4% | -8.9% |
| 11/10/2025 | -4.8% | 1.0% | 30.5% |
| 8/12/2025 | 4.8% | 14.8% | 19.4% |
| 5/13/2025 | -8.1% | 7.2% | -16.3% |
| 3/27/2025 | 2.3% | 1.2% | 11.0% |
| 11/12/2024 | -7.3% | -20.4% | -17.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| # Negative | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 4.2% | 19.4% |
| Median Negative | -7.7% | -10.4% | -15.5% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 14.8% | 30.5% |
| Max Negative | -14.3% | -20.4% | -17.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/11/2026 | -14.3% | -10.1% | -14.7% |
| 5/11/2026 | 1.5% | -10.4% | -8.9% |
| 11/10/2025 | -4.8% | 1.0% | 30.5% |
| 8/12/2025 | 4.8% | 14.8% | 19.4% |
| 5/13/2025 | -8.1% | 7.2% | -16.3% |
| 3/27/2025 | 2.3% | 1.2% | 11.0% |
| 11/12/2024 | -7.3% | -20.4% | -17.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| # Negative | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 4.2% | 19.4% |
| Median Negative | -7.7% | -10.4% | -15.5% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 14.8% | 30.5% |
| Max Negative | -14.3% | -20.4% | -17.4% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/24/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2029 Cash Runway | Reported | Affirmed | Guidance: 2029.5 for 2029 | |||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2029 Cash Runway | Reported | 2029.5 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2029.5 for 2029 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/10/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2029 Cash Runway | Reported | 2029.5 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/10/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President, COO & Interim CEO | Direct | Sell | 9102026 | 22.90 | 17,500 | 400,716 | 4,159,224 | Form |
| 2 | Hyep, Ivan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 27.97 | 12,500 | 349,591 | 3,631,694 | Form |
| 3 | Mazumdar, Claire | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 27.98 | 10,000 | 279,750 | 10,131,202 | Form |
| 4 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 27.98 | 18,750 | 524,533 | 5,081,425 | Form |
| 5 | Mazumdar, Claire | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 7142026 | 28.42 | 10,000 | 284,198 | 10,292,301 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President, COO & Interim CEO | Direct | Sell | 9102026 | 22.90 | 17,500 | 400,716 | 4,159,224 | Form |
| 2 | Hyep, Ivan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 27.97 | 12,500 | 349,591 | 3,631,694 | Form |
| 3 | Mazumdar, Claire | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 27.98 | 10,000 | 279,750 | 10,131,202 | Form |
| 4 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 27.98 | 18,750 | 524,533 | 5,081,425 | Form |
| 5 | Mazumdar, Claire | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 7142026 | 28.42 | 10,000 | 284,198 | 10,292,301 | Form |
| 6 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 7102026 | 29.00 | 536 | 15,544 | 5,267,589 | Form |
| 7 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 7102026 | 28.98 | 28,214 | 817,585 | 5,279,126 | Form |
| 8 | Hyep, Ivan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7102026 | 28.85 | 28,000 | 807,672 | 3,745,723 | Form |
| 9 | Hyep, Ivan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 20.42 | 9,200 | 187,883 | 2,968,454 | Form |
| 10 | Mazumdar, Claire | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 20.04 | 15,000 | 300,579 | 7,257,009 | Form |
| 11 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 20.29 | 12,500 | 253,649 | 3,888,760 | Form |
| 12 | Raben, David | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 22.88 | 5,500 | 125,830 | 1,264,844 | Form |
| 13 | Hyep, Ivan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4222026 | 23.00 | 9,200 | 211,614 | 3,343,383 | Form |
| 14 | Mazumdar, Claire | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4202026 | 23.61 | 15,000 | 354,146 | 8,550,300 | Form |
| 15 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 23.01 | 12,500 | 287,591 | 4,512,675 | Form |
| 16 | Raben, David | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 18.95 | 5,500 | 104,229 | 1,047,714 | Form |
| 17 | Hyep, Ivan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3242026 | 18.52 | 9,200 | 170,348 | 2,691,408 | Form |
| 18 | Mazumdar, Claire | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3202026 | 18.95 | 1,596 | 30,246 | 6,431,920 | Form |
| 19 | Mazumdar, Claire | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3202026 | 18.78 | 6,905 | 129,705 | 6,375,207 | Form |
| 20 | Mazumdar, Claire | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3202026 | 18.84 | 6,499 | 122,415 | 6,392,754 | Form |
| 21 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 19.66 | 12,500 | 245,714 | 3,944,020 | Form |
| 22 | Mazumdar, Claire | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 19.17 | 36,766 | 704,657 | 6,504,787 | Form |
| 23 | Hyep, Ivan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 18.25 | 2,963 | 54,062 | 2,652,089 | Form |
| 24 | Raben, David | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 18.52 | 16,300 | 301,920 | 1,024,046 | Form |
| 25 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 18.16 | 17,392 | 315,893 | 3,725,996 | Form |
| 26 | Hyep, Ivan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 18.22 | 13,555 | 246,910 | 2,647,699 | Form |
| 27 | Raben, David | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 18.45 | 200 | 3,690 | 1,020,027 | Form |
| 28 | Ra, Capital Management, LP | See footnotes | Buy | 3022026 | 16.00 | 300,000 | 4,800,000 | 73,654,688 | Form | |
| 29 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 18.04 | 3,631 | 65,501 | 3,781,819 | Form |
| 30 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 1262026 | 18.10 | 3,828 | 69,296 | 3,804,473 | Form |
| 31 | Hyep, Ivan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 1262026 | 18.15 | 1,882 | 34,162 | 2,638,513 | Form |
| 32 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 1202026 | 18.02 | 149 | 2,685 | 3,856,136 | Form |
| 33 | Hyep, Ivan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 18.31 | 9,200 | 168,492 | 2,662,075 | Form |
| 34 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 18.68 | 12,500 | 233,548 | 3,533,873 | Form |
| 35 | Raben, David | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 18.84 | 5,500 | 103,633 | 668,849 | Form |
| 36 | Hyep, Ivan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 18.55 | 17,795 | 330,094 | 2,696,306 | Form |
| 37 | Mazumdar, Claire | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 18.86 | 41,163 | 776,429 | 5,845,276 | Form |
| 38 | Raben, David | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 18.45 | 5,500 | 101,475 | 654,920 | Form |
| 39 | Hyep, Ivan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 18.15 | 605 | 10,981 | 2,638,193 | Form |
| 40 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 18.05 | 12,500 | 225,588 | 3,494,639 | Form |
| 41 | Mazumdar, Claire | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10202025 | 18.83 | 24,103 | 453,761 | 5,833,996 | Form |
| 42 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 10162025 | 18.16 | 12,500 | 226,942 | 3,597,329 | Form |
| 43 | Mazumdar, Claire | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10152025 | 18.84 | 13,289 | 250,391 | 5,838,985 | Form |
| 44 | Mazumdar, Claire | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10152025 | 18.92 | 11,445 | 216,545 | 5,863,312 | Form |
| 45 | Raben, David | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 10102025 | 18.45 | 22,000 | 405,900 | 654,920 | Form |
| 46 | Hyep, Ivan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10102025 | 18.23 | 6,415 | 116,931 | 2,649,502 | Form |
| 47 | Hyep, Ivan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10082025 | 18.21 | 5,627 | 102,456 | 2,646,624 | Form |
| 48 | Hyep, Ivan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10082025 | 18.22 | 18,244 | 332,386 | 2,648,208 | Form |
| 49 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 10082025 | 18.06 | 10,900 | 196,844 | 3,659,514 | Form |
| 50 | Hyep, Ivan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10082025 | 18.17 | 6,514 | 118,356 | 2,641,028 | Form |
| 51 | Cohlhepp, Ryan | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 10082025 | 18.06 | 39,600 | 714,998 | 3,711,146 | Form |
| 52 | Meisner, Lara | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 10012025 | 14.75 | 33,807 | Form | ||
| 53 | Meisner, Lara | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 9172025 | 11.49 | 15,829 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 29, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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