Tearsheet

Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $18.28 | Market Cap: $997.4 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $18.28
Market Cap: $997.4 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -30%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.15, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -141 Mil
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
3   Key risks
BCAX key risks include [1] the pivotal trial outcome for its lead HNSCC candidate, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -30%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.15, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
3 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -141 Mil
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
6 Key risks
BCAX key risks include [1] the pivotal trial outcome for its lead HNSCC candidate, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BCAX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. U.S. FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation.

Bicara Therapeutics received Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the U.S. FDA for ficerafusp alfa plus pembrolizumab for the first-line treatment of metastatic or unresectable, recurrent HPV-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) with PD-L1 CPS ≥1 on October 13, 2025.

2. Positive Phase 1b Clinical Trial Data.

Preliminary Phase 1b expansion cohort data for ficerafusp alfa 750mg weekly plus pembrolizumab in first-line HPV-negative recurrent/metastatic HNSCC were presented on December 6, 2025, showing a 57% confirmed overall response rate, 10% complete responses, and 29% of responders achieving ≥80% tumor shrinkage. These positive results advance the pivotal study dose selection for Q1 2026.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BCAX Return1%
Peers Return41%-24%-23%25%-12%-5%-14%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BCAX Win Rate0%67% 
Peers Win Rate50%40%47%48%47%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BCAX Max Drawdown-50% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-36%-49%-23%-27%-48% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MGNX, ZYME, IOVA, REGN, MRK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

BCAX has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-16.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,100 days1,480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX)

Better Bets than Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BCAX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.7%-6.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.9%10.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.7%2.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.4%11.4%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.7%-6.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.9%10.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.7%2.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.4%11.4%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Bicara Therapeutics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BCAXMGNXZYMEIOVAREGNMRKMedian
NameBicara T.Macrogen.ZymeworksIovance .Regenero.Merck  
Mkt Price18.281.5327.002.56763.30100.9222.64
Mkt Cap1.00.12.00.979.1251.81.5
Rev LTM012613425014,24864,235192
Op Inc LTM-141-114-71-4113,80722,391-92
FCF LTM-113-165-66-3523,88113,049-90
FCF 3Y Avg--8322-3683,85313,68522
CFO LTM-113-162-64-3235,07117,065-89
CFO 3Y Avg--8025-3474,84817,50625

Growth & Margins

BCAXMGNXZYMEIOVAREGNMRKMedian
NameBicara T.Macrogen.ZymeworksIovance .Regenero.Merck  
Rev Chg LTM--9.9%116.2%175.6%2.9%1.7%2.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-12.9%491.8%-1.4%2.9%7.9%
Rev Chg Q--34.2%72.6%15.2%0.9%3.7%3.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM--23.1%9.5%3.7%0.2%1.0%1.0%
Op Mgn LTM--90.1%-52.5%-164.3%26.7%34.9%-52.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--85.5%-67.6%-21,256.3%30.0%23.7%-67.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--42.5%14.9%5.8%-0.9%3.7%3.7%
CFO/Rev LTM--128.9%-47.8%-129.0%35.6%26.6%-47.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--62.6%-31.1%-16,938.4%35.4%28.2%-31.1%
FCF/Rev LTM--130.8%-49.2%-140.5%27.2%20.3%-49.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--64.6%-34.2%-17,973.0%28.2%22.0%-34.2%

Valuation

BCAXMGNXZYMEIOVAREGNMRKMedian
NameBicara T.Macrogen.ZymeworksIovance .Regenero.Merck  
Mkt Cap1.00.12.00.979.1251.81.5
P/S-0.815.23.75.63.93.9
P/EBIT-7.1-1.4-29.0-2.315.210.9-1.8
P/E-8.2-1.3-32.3-2.317.313.2-1.8
P/CFO-8.8-0.6-31.8-2.915.614.8-1.7
Total Yield-12.7%-80.0%-3.1%-44.0%6.1%10.8%-7.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%3.2%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--64.2%10.5%-30.5%4.9%5.5%4.9%
D/E0.00.40.00.10.00.20.0
Net D/E-0.3-1.1-0.1-0.3-0.10.1-0.2

Returns

BCAXMGNXZYMEIOVAREGNMRKMedian
NameBicara T.Macrogen.ZymeworksIovance .Regenero.Merck  
1M Rtn13.0%12.0%13.4%17.4%3.6%7.2%12.5%
3M Rtn75.1%-5.2%66.2%24.9%29.1%24.9%27.0%
6M Rtn96.1%17.2%116.3%29.3%50.2%30.0%40.1%
12M Rtn3.9%-51.7%90.9%-65.3%9.4%6.8%5.4%
3Y Rtn--74.4%208.6%-57.7%4.3%-0.5%-0.5%
1M Excs Rtn17.4%5.1%16.6%10.3%5.7%4.2%8.0%
3M Excs Rtn67.9%-13.4%61.3%18.6%26.2%24.5%25.4%
6M Excs Rtn85.2%2.5%103.2%24.5%36.2%14.8%30.3%
12M Excs Rtn-12.7%-67.3%89.1%-80.6%-9.2%-8.3%-10.9%
3Y Excs Rtn--148.7%250.1%-135.4%-68.3%-71.8%-71.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023
Research and development of its product 0
Total 0


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023
Research and development of its product2347
Total2347


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,655,080
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520256.0%
Average Daily Volume753,847
Days-to-Cover Short Interest10.15
Basic Shares Quantity54,563,864
Short % of Basic Shares14.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/10/2025-4.8%1.0%30.5%
8/12/20254.8%14.8%19.4%
3/27/20252.3%1.2%11.0%
11/12/2024-7.3%-20.4%-17.4%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive233
# Negative211
Median Positive3.5%1.2%19.4%
Median Negative-6.1%-20.4%-17.4%
Max Positive4.8%14.8%30.5%
Max Negative-7.3%-20.4%-17.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251110202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025812202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024327202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
123120239132024424B4 12/31/2023