Tearsheet

Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $18.78 | Market Cap: $1.0 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $18.78
Market Cap: $1.0 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -86%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.67, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -121 Mil
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -86%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.67, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
3 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -121 Mil
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BCAX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points explaining the 57.1% movement in Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:

1. FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for Ficerafusp Alfa
On October 13, 2025, Bicara Therapeutics announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD) for its investigational cancer therapy, ficerafusp alfa, in combination with pembrolizumab. This designation was for the first-line treatment of patients with metastatic or unresectable, recurrent HPV-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). The BTD was supported by positive Phase 1/1b trial data presented at ASCO 2025, which showed a median duration of response of 21.7 months and a median overall survival of 21.3 months with a favorable safety profile. This regulatory milestone signals potential for an expedited development timeline and highlights the therapy's significant clinical benefit.

2. Positive Phase 1b Expansion Cohort Data Publication
On December 1, 2025, Bicara Therapeutics announced the publication of preliminary data from a Phase 1b expansion cohort evaluating a 750mg weekly dose of ficerafusp alfa plus pembrolizumab in first-line HPV-negative recurrent/metastatic HNSCC. The results indicated a 57% objective response rate and an 83% disease control rate in the efficacy-evaluable patient population (n=30). This data further supported the FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation and will inform the dose selection for the pivotal Phase 2/3 FORTIFI-HN01 trial.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BCAX Return-----8%8%
Peers Return2%-1%6%8%-0%2%17%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BCAX Win Rate----0%70% 
Peers Win Rate13%8%13%12%10%90% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BCAX Max Drawdown------50% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-5%0%-0%-1%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

BCAX has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-16.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1100 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX)

Better Bets than Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BCAX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Bicara Therapeutics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BCAXVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameBicara T.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Price18.76457.362.631.1711.5421.9315.15
Mkt Cap1.0116.9----59.0
Rev LTM011,7230-0100
Op Inc LTM-121-92-5--93-70-92
FCF LTM-1013,337-6--60-64-60
FCF 3Y Avg-2,064-10---1,027
CFO LTM-1013,718-6--60-64-60
CFO 3Y Avg-2,419-10---1,204

Growth & Margins

BCAXVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameBicara T.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Rev Chg LTM-10.3%----10.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q-11.0%----11.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.7%----2.7%
Op Mgn LTM--0.8%----700.7%-350.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%----1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-31.7%----635.6%-302.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-28.5%----636.5%-304.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

BCAXVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameBicara T.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Cap1.0116.9----59.0
P/S-8.5----8.5
P/EBIT-4.222.4----9.1
P/E-4.927.2----11.2
P/CFO-5.026.9----11.0
Total Yield-20.3%3.7%-----8.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.3%----2.3%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.9-0.0-----0.5

Returns

BCAXVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameBicara T.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
1M Rtn27.3%8.5%-23.2%-4.6%-15.8%
3M Rtn55.6%15.2%--14.5%-15.2%
6M Rtn70.1%3.1%----36.6%
12M Rtn-6.0%-1.4%-----3.7%
3Y Rtn-44.0%----44.0%
1M Excs Rtn26.0%7.2%-22.0%-5.9%-14.6%
3M Excs Rtn49.8%9.7%--10.8%-10.8%
6M Excs Rtn54.6%-12.4%----21.1%
12M Excs Rtn-19.6%-15.2%-----17.4%
3Y Excs Rtn--28.7%-----28.7%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,218,989
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202511.8%
Average Daily Volume676,594
Days-to-Cover Short Interest10.67
Basic Shares Quantity54,539,230
Short % of Basic Shares13.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025812202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024327202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
123120239132024424B4 12/31/2023