Advance Auto Parts (AAP)
Market Price (5/1/2026): $59.51 | Market Cap: $3.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
Advance Auto Parts (AAP)
Market Price (5/1/2026): $59.51Market Cap: $3.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -126% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 59% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 74x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 81x Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.5% Key risksAAP key risks include [1] declining market share against better-performing rivals, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -126% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 59% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 74x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 81x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.5% |
| Key risksAAP key risks include [1] declining market share against better-performing rivals, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Advance Auto Parts reported stronger-than-expected financial results for Q4 2025 and issued optimistic guidance for 2026. The company announced an adjusted earnings per share of $0.86, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.41 by $0.45. Additionally, Q4 2025 revenue reached $1.97 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.95 billion. Management also provided full-year 2026 guidance, projecting adjusted operating income margin to be between 3.8% and 4.5% and comparable-store sales to grow by 1.0% to 2.0%, signaling a positive outlook for future profitability and revenue growth.
2. The company demonstrated significant progress in its operational turnaround, achieving positive comparable sales growth and margin expansion. Advance Auto Parts returned to positive full-year comparable sales growth of 0.8% in 2025, marking the first time in three years. The adjusted operating income margin expanded by over 200 basis points to 2.5% in 2025, with Q4 2025 comparable sales increasing by 1.1%. This operational improvement, including better sourcing and store footprint rationalization, suggests that the company's strategic initiatives are gaining traction.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.5% change in AAP stock from 1/31/2026 to 4/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 24.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 4302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.80 | 59.51 | 24.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,625 | 8,602 | -0.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.4 | 24.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 60 | 60 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 4/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAP | 24.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 36.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.1% | 43.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 27.6% change in AAP stock from 10/31/2025 to 4/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 27.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 4302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 46.64 | 59.51 | 27.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,625 | 8,602 | -0.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.4 | 27.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 60 | 60 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 27.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 4/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAP | 27.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 37.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.0% | 41.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 85.5% change in AAP stock from 4/30/2025 to 4/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 97.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 4302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.09 | 59.51 | 85.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,094 | 8,602 | -5.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.4 | 97.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 60 | 60 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 85.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 4/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAP | 85.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 22.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 20.9% | 29.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -49.7% change in AAP stock from 4/30/2023 to 4/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -90.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 4302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 118.30 | 59.51 | -49.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,149 | 8,602 | -6.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.2% | 0.5% | -90.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.7 | 81.0 | 450.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 59 | 60 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -49.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 4/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAP | -49.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 25.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 64.1% | 29.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AAP Return | 55% | -37% | -58% | -21% | -15% | 43% | -60% |
| Peers Return | 62% | 14% | -2% | 4% | 4% | -2% | 89% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 90% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AAP Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 71% | 48% | 48% | 58% | 56% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AAP Max Drawdown | -6% | -40% | -66% | -40% | -36% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -20% | -15% | -11% | -7% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ORLY, AZO, GPC, LKQ. See AAP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/30/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AAP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 133 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -19.3% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 419 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1006 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Advance Auto Parts's stock fell -31.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 46.2% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | AAP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 133 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1006 days | 62 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -37.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 135 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -24.2% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.0% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 293 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Advance Auto Parts's stock fell -31.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 46.2% gain to breakeven.
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Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
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About Advance Auto Parts (AAP)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Advance Auto Parts (AAP):
- Home Depot for auto parts
- Lowe's for everything your car needs
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Automotive Replacement Parts: A comprehensive range of components including brakes, engine parts, electrical systems, and steering for domestic and imported vehicles.
- Automotive Accessories: Various items such as interior and exterior enhancements, cleaning supplies, lighting products, and specialized tools.
- Engine Maintenance Supplies: Essential fluids, filters, and additives like motor oils, fuel filters, and lubricants for vehicle upkeep.
- Installation Services: Professional installation for batteries and wiper blades.
- Diagnostic & Testing Services: Includes engine light scanning, electrical system testing, and video clinics.
- Recycling Programs: Environmentally responsible recycling for used oil and batteries.
- Loaner Tool Program: Provides customers with access to specialized tools for automotive repairs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) serves two primary categories of customers:
- Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Customers: These are individual consumers who purchase automotive parts and accessories for their own vehicle maintenance, repair, or customization projects. They perform the work themselves rather than taking their vehicle to a professional mechanic.
- Professional Installers: This category includes businesses such as independent repair shops, garages, and dealerships that purchase automotive parts, accessories, and maintenance items for their service operations. They install these parts for their own customers.
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Shane O'Kelly, President and Chief Executive Officer
Shane O'Kelly joined Advance Auto Parts as President and Chief Executive Officer in September 2023. Prior to his current role, O'Kelly served as the CEO of HD Supply, a wholly-owned subsidiary of The Home Depot, Inc. Before his appointment as CEO of HD Supply, he was the CEO of Home Depot Pro, formerly known as Interline Brands, Inc. Prior to joining The Home Depot, O'Kelly was the CEO of PetroChoice, a distributor of lubricants and lubrication solutions, from 2011 to 2018. He also served as CEO of AH Harris, a specialty construction supply distributor, from 2008 to 2011. Early in his career, O'Kelly worked at The Home Depot and as an engagement manager at McKinsey and Company. He also served seven years as an infantry officer in the U.S. Army. He holds a bachelor's degree from The United States Military Academy at West Point and an MBA from Harvard Business School.
Ryan Grimsland, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Ryan Grimsland became Advance Auto Parts' Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer in November 2023. Before joining Advance, Grimsland spent 17 years at Lowe's Companies, Inc., where he most recently held the position of Senior Vice President, Strategy and Transformation. His tenure at Lowe's included various leadership roles across the finance organization, such as Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance and Treasurer, and Vice President, Corporate Financial Planning and Analysis. Prior to Lowe's, he held positions in operations and finance at Haverty's Furniture and UBS. Grimsland holds a bachelor's degree from High Point University and an MBA from Benedictine University.
Kristen Soler, Executive Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer
Kristen Soler serves as the Executive Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer at Advance Auto Parts.
Bruce Starnes, Executive Vice President, Chief Merchant
Bruce Starnes joined Advance Auto Parts in June 2024 as Executive Vice President, Chief Merchant. In this role, he oversees the company's merchandising strategy, marketing, and e-commerce business. Before Advance, Starnes spent nearly 20 years at the Target Corporation in various product management roles, most recently as Senior Vice President, Merchandising Capabilities and Operations.
Jeff Vining, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Jeff Vining joined Advance Auto Parts in March 2025 as Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary. He is responsible for the company's legal, corporate governance, and compliance functions, bringing over 20 years of legal expertise within publicly traded companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The verification step confirms that the company is indeed Advance Auto Parts (AAP) and the identified risks are logically consistent with its business. Here are the key risks to Advance Auto Parts (AAP): 1.Intense Competition: Advance Auto Parts operates in a highly competitive automotive aftermarket, facing strong rivals such as O'Reilly Automotive and AutoZone. This intense competition, coupled with aggressive expansion by competitors and evolving consumer behaviors, puts significant pressure on AAP's market share, pricing strategy, and profitability. The company has lagged behind its more robust competitors and struggles with operational inefficiencies and suboptimal store performance.
2.Economic Sensitivity and Consumer Spending Constraints: The company's sales are significantly impacted by macroeconomic factors and consumer spending patterns. Economic pressures, such as inflation and rising costs of vehicle ownership, make consumers more cost-conscious and prone to delaying non-essential repairs or seeking lower-priced alternatives. This directly threatens sales volumes, particularly in the do-it-yourself (DIY) market, where financially strained consumers are reducing discretionary purchases.
3.Supply Chain Transformation and Operational Execution Risks: Advance Auto Parts is undertaking a significant turnaround strategy involving supply chain restructuring, store rationalization, and other operational improvements. These initiatives, such as consolidating distribution centers and optimizing its store footprint, present inherent execution risks. The success of these complex undertakings is crucial for margin recovery and overall financial performance. Challenges in inventory management, supply chain efficiency, and potential increases in input costs and tariffs could adversely affect the business.
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The increasing market penetration of electric vehicles (EVs).
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For Advance Auto Parts (symbol: AAP), the addressable markets for their main products and services, which include automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries, maintenance items, and related installation and maintenance services, are substantial across their primary operating regions.
United States
The entire automotive aftermarket in the United States, encompassing after-sales parts and accessories for light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles, is projected to be nearly $535 billion in 2024. This market is expected to grow to approximately $574 billion in 2026. Focusing specifically on the light-duty automotive aftermarket in the U.S., it was a $405 billion industry in 2024 and is projected to reach $435 billion in 2025, with forecasts indicating it will exceed $500 billion by 2028.
Canada
The automotive aftermarket in Canada had an estimated market size ranging from USD 17 billion to USD 36.05 billion in 2024. More specifically, some estimates place the Canada Automotive Aftermarket market size at USD 22.4 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 29.0 billion in 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3% from 2025-2032.
Mexico
The automotive aftermarket sector in Mexico recorded total revenues of $17.5 billion in 2022. This market is projected to reach approximately USD 11.32 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to about USD 16.66 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 4.8% from 2026 to 2033.
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Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives: * New Store Openings and Market Hub Expansion: Advance Auto Parts plans a significant expansion of its retail footprint, with 30 new U.S. stores slated for 2025 and at least an additional 100 by 2027. This expansion includes larger "market hubs" designed to dramatically increase parts availability, stocking between 75,000 and 85,000 SKUs compared to 20,000-25,000 in typical stores, and enhancing same-day delivery capabilities. This strategy aims to strengthen the company's presence in key markets where it already holds a leading position. * Prioritizing the Professional (Pro) Segment: The company is intensifying its focus on the professional installer segment, which accounted for approximately 50% of its 2024 sales. Key initiatives include improving parts fill rates, accelerating delivery speeds to 30-40 minutes, providing dedicated sales coverage for garages and fleets, and enhancing overall parts availability to the mid-90% range. These efforts are geared towards regaining lost commercial market share and capitalizing on consistent demand for vehicle maintenance parts from this segment. * Supply Chain Optimization: Advance Auto Parts is actively consolidating its supply chain into a unified network, streamlining distribution center operations, and converting smaller legacy distribution centers into larger market hubs. This optimization, supported by technology investments, aims to enhance in-stock rates for high-demand products, reduce out-of-stocks, and improve last-mile efficiency, ultimately driving sales through better product availability and faster service. * Investments in Technology and Digital B2B Enablement: The company is leveraging technology to improve fulfillment, reduce working capital tied to inventory, and offer differentiated B2B services. This includes implementing advanced forecasting and automated replenishment systems to boost in-store stock for top SKUs, developing B2B portals and integrations to reduce order-to-delivery times for professional installers, and optimizing routes for commercial deliveries. These digital enhancements are expected to improve customer experience and retention, particularly within the professional segment. * Expansion of Category Depth and Private Label Offerings: Advance Auto Parts plans to expand its category depth through initiatives like refreshing battery and brake lines and broadening its merchandising resets in 2025. This strategy focuses on increasing the penetration of higher-margin owned-brand products across categories such as brakes, batteries, chassis, filters, and chemicals, thereby contributing to revenue growth and improved profitability.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In April 2021, Advance Auto Parts' Board of Directors approved an additional $1 billion share repurchase authorization, bringing the total available authorization to approximately $1.3 billion.
- The company repurchased $563.4 million in common stock during the twenty-eight weeks ended July 17, 2021.
- As of July 17, 2021, $868.8 million remained under the company's share repurchase program.
Capital Expenditures
- Advance Auto Parts' capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 (ending January 2026) amounted to $252.0 million.
- The company expects to invest approximately $300 million in capital expenditures for 2026.
- These capital expenditures are primarily focused on store expansion, supply chain enhancements, merchandising initiatives, and store and technology upgrades, including the opening of 40-45 new stores and 10-15 market hubs in 2026.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 99.40 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.8 |
| Rev LTM | 17,782 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,216 |
| FCF LTM | 808 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 802 |
| CFO LTM | 1,010 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,148 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -5.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -9.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.8 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 17.3 |
| P/EBIT | 24.1 |
| P/E | 33.1 |
| P/CFO | 14.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -31.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -29.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -106.0% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $59.51 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/29/2001 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $53.63 | $52.81 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 11.0% | 12.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 47.3% | 77.3% |
| Downside Capture | -0.03 | 0.52 |
| Upside Capture | 85.82 | 138.47 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 37.1% | 22.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.28 | 1.50 | 1.13 | 1.41 | 1.36 | 1.06 |
| Up Beta | 1.49 | 1.70 | 1.97 | 1.53 | 1.39 | 1.06 |
| Down Beta | -8.35 | 1.21 | 2.02 | 1.63 | 1.57 | 1.05 |
| Up Capture | 123% | 165% | 84% | 138% | 164% | 52% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 20 | 30 | 58 | 118 | 361 |
| Down Capture | 288% | 138% | 25% | 123% | 101% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 23 | 33 | 66 | 133 | 389 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAP | 82.6% | 77.2% | 1.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 19.9% | 18.8% | 0.83 | 29.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.6% | 12.5% | 1.88 | 22.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 38.6% | 27.2% | 1.18 | 2.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.6% | 18.0% | 2.07 | -5.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 13.5% | 0.71 | 20.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.3% | 42.1% | -0.39 | 10.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAP | -19.6% | 52.0% | -0.23 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.8% | 23.8% | 0.25 | 33.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 31.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.6% | 17.9% | 0.94 | 4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.4% | 19.1% | 0.62 | 6.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 29.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.3% | 56.2% | 0.36 | 11.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAP | -8.0% | 44.5% | -0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 22.0% | 0.53 | 39.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 37.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.5% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 4.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 12.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.25 | 34.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.1% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 8.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/13/2026 | 1.1% | -4.0% | -8.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -8.0% | -11.7% | -4.2% |
| 7/24/2025 | -10.3% | -16.0% | -16.4% |
| 11/14/2024 | 0.6% | -5.6% | 7.1% |
| 8/22/2024 | -17.5% | -24.7% | -33.8% |
| 5/29/2024 | -11.0% | -7.1% | -10.7% |
| 2/28/2024 | 2.6% | 12.2% | 31.8% |
| 8/23/2023 | 3.1% | -0.6% | -13.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| # Negative | 12 | 16 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 3.6% | 7.1% |
| Median Negative | -8.8% | -6.4% | -12.1% |
| Max Positive | 3.6% | 12.2% | 31.8% |
| Max Negative | -35.0% | -41.1% | -39.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/12/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 06/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/24/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/13/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 8.48 Bil | 8.53 Bil | 8.57 Bil | -0.5% | Lower New | Actual: 8.57 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 50.0% | 0.5% | Higher New | Actual: 1.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Operating Margin | 3.8% | 4.15% | 4.5% | 66.0% | 1.6% | Higher New | Actual: 2.5% for 2025 |
| 2026 EPS | 2.4 | 2.75 | 3.1 | 52.8% | Higher New | Actual: 1.8 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 300.00 Mil | 20.0% | Higher New | Actual: 250.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 100.00 Mil | -217.6% | Higher New | Actual: -85.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Store Openings | 40 | 42.5 | 45 | ||||
| 2026 Market hub openings | 10 | 12.5 | 15 | ||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soler, Kristen L | EVP, Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 51.00 | 7,662 | 390,762 | 1,181,415 | Form |
| 2 | Hand, Jason | SVP, U.S. Stores | Direct | Sell | 6232025 | 48.52 | 948 | 45,995 | 479,176 | Form |
| 3 | Grimsland, Ryan P | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 3312025 | 40.70 | 200 | 8,140 | 2,299,509 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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