Tearsheet

Advance Auto Parts (AAP)

Market Price (12/24/2025): $41.28 | Market Cap: $2.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail

Advance Auto Parts (AAP)

Market Price (12/24/2025): $41.28
Market Cap: $2.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0	Attractive yield Dividend Yield is 2.4%	Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -151%	Not profitable at operating income level Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -748 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.7%
1	Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery.	Meaningful short interest Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%	Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 85%
2			Weak revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.2%
3			Not cash flow generative CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.2%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.7%
4			Yield minus risk free rate is negative ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
5			Key risks AAP key risks include [1] declining market share against better-performing rivals, Show more.

0	Attractive yield Dividend Yield is 2.4%
1	Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery.
2	Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -151%
3	Meaningful short interest Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
4	Not profitable at operating income level Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -748 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.7%
5	Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 85%
6	Weak revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.2%
7	Not cash flow generative CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.2%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.7%
8	Yield minus risk free rate is negative ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
9	Key risks AAP key risks include [1] declining market share against better-performing rivals, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

	12/24/25	2024	2023	2022	2021
Share Price CYE	$41.28	$46.24	$58.60	$138.27	$217.74
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)	2.5	2.8	3.5	8.2	13.7
Total Debt ($ Bil)	5.3	3.7	3.8	3.7	3.4
Total Cash ($ Bil)	3.2	1.9	0.5	0.3	0.6
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)	4.6	6.5	7.3	11.9	17.1
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	0.3	0.3	0.4	1.0	1.4
P/EBIT TTM	-3.0	-4.1	88.9	17.4	18.7
P/E TTM	-6.6	-8.4	122.0	19.1	25.7
P/FCF TTM	-6.2	-29.3	58.8	26.4	18.8
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.9	1.4
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	7.7	8.3	7.8	6.5	8.3
P/E TTM (Sector)	10.6	11.1	10.4	8.4	10.7
P/FCF TTM (Sector)	11.2	12.3	9.6	7.3	10.5

	12/24/25	2024	2023
Share Price CYE	$41.28	$46.24	$58.60
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)	2.5	2.8	3.5
Total Debt ($ Bil)	5.3	3.7	3.8
Total Cash ($ Bil)	3.2	1.9	0.5
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)	4.6	6.5	7.3
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	0.3	0.3	0.4
P/EBIT TTM	-3.0	-4.1	88.9
P/E TTM	-6.6	-8.4	122.0
P/FCF TTM	-6.2	-29.3	58.8
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	0.8	0.8	0.9
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	7.7	8.3	7.8
P/E TTM (Sector)	10.6	11.1	10.4
P/FCF TTM (Sector)	11.2	12.3	9.6

	AAP	S&P 500
REVENUE GROWTH	VERY POOR
Rev LTM ($ Bil)	8.6
Rev Chg Q	-5.2%	7.3%
Rev Chg LTM	-5.3%	6.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-7.4%	5.5%
PROFITABILITY	VERY POOR
Op Inc LTM ($ Bil)	-0.7
CFO LTM ($ Bil)	-0.2
Net Inc LTM ($ Bil)	-0.4
Op Mgn LTM	-8.7%	18.8%
CFO/Rev LTM	-2.2%	20.4%
Net Inc Mgn	-4.4%	13.1%
VALUATION	VERY LOW
P/S	0.3	3.2
P/CFO	-12.9	15.7
P/FCF	-6.2	20.6
P/E	-6.6	23.5
STABILITY	FAIR
Debt/Equity	2.12	0.21
Cash/Assets	0.26	0.07

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Metric	Value	Date	Source
Number of Company-Operated Stores	4297	10042025	Link
Number of Independently Owned Carquest Branded Stores	814	10042025	Link
Comparable Store Sales Growth	3.0%	10042025	Link
Professional Customer Sales Percentage	nearly 60%	3122024	Link
Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Customer Sales Percentage	approximately 40%	3122024	Link
Number of Speed Perks Loyalty Program Members	11 million and counting	8012016	Link
Typical SKUs in a Standard Store	20,000 to 25,000	3262025	Link
Typical SKUs in a Market Hub Store	75,000 to 85,000	3262025	Link

Upcoming
1/09/2026	Dividend	Amount: $0.25 Payment On: 1/23/2026
2/25/2026	Earnings Release	Rev: - EPS: -

AAP Stock

Return (1M):

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Here are the key points for why Advance Auto Parts (AAP) stock moved by -32.2% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 25, 2025: 1. Lowered Full-Year Guidance: Advance Auto Parts significantly cut its full-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance in mid-August 2025, revising it downward from an earlier range of $1.50-$2.50 to $1.20-$2.20. This reduction signaled investor concern about future profitability, even as the company reported a return to adjusted profitability and stabilized comparable store sales in its second quarter 2025 results.

2. Ongoing Store Optimization Costs and Net Sales Decline: The company's comprehensive transformation plan, which includes closing over 700 locations (523 corporate-owned stores and 204 independently operated outlets) and four distribution centers by mid-2025, continued to incur significant restructuring costs. This extensive optimization effort, despite its long-term strategic goals, contributed to a 5% year-over-year decline in net sales from continuing operations reported in Q3 2025, impacting short to medium-term investor sentiment.

Show more Here are the key points for why Advance Auto Parts (AAP) stock moved by -32.2% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 25, 2025: 1. Lowered Full-Year Guidance: Advance Auto Parts significantly cut its full-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance in mid-August 2025, revising it downward from an earlier range of $1.50-$2.50 to $1.20-$2.20. This reduction signaled investor concern about future profitability, even as the company reported a return to adjusted profitability and stabilized comparable store sales in its second quarter 2025 results.

2. Ongoing Store Optimization Costs and Net Sales Decline: The company's comprehensive transformation plan, which includes closing over 700 locations (523 corporate-owned stores and 204 independently operated outlets) and four distribution centers by mid-2025, continued to incur significant restructuring costs. This extensive optimization effort, despite its long-term strategic goals, contributed to a 5% year-over-year decline in net sales from continuing operations reported in Q3 2025, impacting short to medium-term investor sentiment.

3. Analyst Skepticism and Price Target Reductions Post-Q3 Earnings: Despite Advance Auto Parts beating adjusted EPS estimates for Q3 2025, several analysts reduced their price targets for the stock. This skepticism was driven by concerns regarding the sustainability of the company's turnaround plan and potential "consumer headwinds," leading to a 7.6% drop in shares immediately after the earnings report in late October 2025.

4. Broader Industry Headwinds and Weakened Consumer Spending: Macroeconomic factors, including persistent inflation and the impact of a significant autumn government shutdown, negatively affected discretionary spending, particularly within the DIY segment of the auto parts market. This led to observed year-over-year drops in weekly sales and transaction volumes across the automotive retail sector, further pressuring Advance Auto Parts' performance.

5. Sector-Wide Downgrades: In December 2025, Wolfe Research downgraded its outlook on the entire automotive goods retail industry to "market weight." This industry-wide downgrade, citing anticipated downward pressure on pricing trends, prompted further declines in Advance Auto Parts' stock and reinforced a negative market sentiment toward the sector. Show less

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -32.0% change in AAP stock from 9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a -31.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.

	9242025	12242025	Change
Stock Price ($)	60.75	41.28	-32.05%
Change Contribution By	LTM	LTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	8737.33	8625.33	-1.28%
P/S Multiple	0.42	0.29	-31.05%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	59.90	60.00	-0.17%
Cumulative Contribution			-32.05%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025

	Return	Correlation
AAP	-32.3%
Market (SPY)	4.4%	28.6%
Sector (XLY)	2.3%	32.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -10.8% change in AAP stock from 6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a -7.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.

	6252025	12242025	Change
Stock Price ($)	46.25	41.28	-10.75%
Change Contribution By	LTM	LTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	8905.33	8625.33	-3.14%
P/S Multiple	0.31	0.29	-7.55%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	59.80	60.00	-0.33%
Cumulative Contribution			-10.75%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025

	Return	Correlation
AAP	-11.1%
Market (SPY)	14.0%	23.8%
Sector (XLY)	15.3%	36.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The -3.5% change in AAP stock from 12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a -5.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).

	12242024	12242025	Change
Stock Price ($)	42.76	41.28	-3.46%
Change Contribution By	LTM	LTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	9112.41	8625.33	-5.35%
P/S Multiple	0.28	0.29	2.51%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	59.70	60.00	-0.50%
Cumulative Contribution			-3.46%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025

	Return	Correlation
AAP	-3.8%
Market (SPY)	15.8%	22.6%
Sector (XLY)	5.3%	27.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The -69.4% change in AAP stock from 12/25/2022 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a -60.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.

	12252022	12242025	Change
Stock Price ($)	134.74	41.28	-69.36%
Change Contribution By	LTM	LTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	11077.95	8625.33	-22.14%
P/S Multiple	0.73	0.29	-60.69%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	60.05	60.00	0.09%
Cumulative Contribution			-69.36%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/25/2023 to 12/24/2025

	Return	Correlation
AAP	-30.1%
Market (SPY)	48.9%	23.5%
Sector (XLY)	38.7%	27.2%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	Total [1]
Returns
AAP Return	-1%	55%	-37%	-58%	-21%	-15%	-72%
Peers Return	-0%	62%	14%	-2%	4%	5%	95%
S&P 500 Return	16%	27%	-19%	24%	23%	18%	115%
Monthly Win Rates [3]
AAP Win Rate	67%	67%	25%	33%	50%	58%
Peers Win Rate	54%	71%	48%	48%	58%	56%
S&P 500 Win Rate	58%	75%	42%	67%	75%	73%
Max Drawdowns [4]
AAP Max Drawdown	-53%	-6%	-40%	-66%	-40%	-36%
Peers Max Drawdown	-48%	-5%	-20%	-15%	-11%	-7%
S&P 500 Max Drawdown	-31%	-1%	-25%	-1%	-2%	-15%

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ORLY, AZO, GPC, LKQ. See AAP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique Key	Event	AAP	S&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock	2022 Inflation Shock
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss	% Loss	-80.0%	-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	400.8%	34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	Not Fully Recovered days	464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic	2020 Covid Pandemic
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss	% Loss	-53.2%	-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	113.5%	51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	150 days	148 days
2018 Correction	2018 Correction
2018 Correction% Loss	% Loss	-54.6%	-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	120.2%	24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	371 days	120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis	2008 Global Financial Crisis
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss	% Loss	-45.8%	-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	84.6%	131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	211 days	1,480 days

Compare to ORLY, AZO, BGSI, OTH, CVNA

In The Past

Advance Auto Parts's stock fell -80.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/6/2022. A -80.0% loss requires a 400.8% gain to breakeven.

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About Advance Auto Parts (AAP)

Business Description Analogies Products Customers Suppliers Management Key Risks Emerging Threats Market Size Revenue Drivers Capital Allocation

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries, and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles, and light and heavy duty trucks. The company offers battery accessories; belts and hoses; brakes and brake pads; chassis and climate control parts; clutches and drive shafts; engines and engine parts; exhaust systems and parts; hub assemblies; ignition components and wires; radiators and cooling parts; starters and alternators; and steering and alignment parts. It also offers air conditioning chemicals and accessories; air fresheners; antifreeze and washer fluids; electrical wires and fuses; electronics; floor mats, seat covers, and interior accessories; hand and specialty tools; lighting products; performance parts; sealants, adhesives and compounds; tire repair accessories; vent shades, mirrors and exterior accessories; washes, waxes and cleaning supplies; and wiper blades. In addition, the company offers air filters; fuel and oil additives; fuel filters; grease and lubricants; motor oils; oil filters, part cleaners and treatments; and transmission fluids for engine maintenance. Further, it offers battery and wiper installation; engine light scanning and checking; electrical system testing; video clinic; oil and battery recycling; and loaner tool program services. Additionally, the company sells its products through its website. It serves professional installers and do-it-yourself customers. The company operates stores under the Advance Auto Parts, Autopart International, and Carquest brands, as well as branches under the Worldpac name. As of January 2, 2022, it operated 4,706 stores and 266 branches in the United States, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Canada; and served 1,317 independently owned Carquest branded stores in Mexico, Grand Cayman, the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and the British Virgin Islands. The company was founded in 1929 and is based in Raleigh, North Carolina.

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Home Depot for cars
Lowe's for automotive repair and maintenance
Staples for auto parts

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Automotive Aftermarket Parts: Sells replacement parts for various vehicle systems, including brakes, batteries, engine components, and electrical parts.
Automotive Accessories: Offers products that enhance a vehicle's appearance, comfort, and functionality, such as floor mats, seat covers, and cargo organizers.
Tools and Equipment: Provides a wide selection of hand tools, power tools, diagnostic equipment, and repair essentials for vehicle maintenance.
Fluids and Chemicals: Supplies essential automotive fluids like motor oil, transmission fluid, antifreeze, and various car care and cleaning products.
Basic In-Store Services: Offers complimentary services like battery testing, wiper blade installation, and recycling of used motor oil and automotive batteries.

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Advance Auto Parts (AAP) serves both Do-It-Yourself (DIY) customers (individuals) and Professional (Commercial) customers (businesses). Given its significant direct sales to individuals through its retail stores and its highly fragmented sales to numerous independent professional repair shops rather than a few major identifiable corporate customers, it is most appropriate to describe its customer base through categories rather than listing specific company names for its commercial segment.

Advance Auto Parts primarily serves two major categories of customers:

Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Customers: These are individual consumers who purchase automotive parts, accessories, and maintenance items to perform repairs and routine maintenance on their own vehicles. They often seek convenience, value, product availability, and advice from store team members.
Professional (Commercial) Customers: This category includes independent repair shops, garages, service stations, fleet operators, and car dealerships. These businesses purchase parts and supplies from Advance Auto Parts to service vehicles for their own customers. Their priorities typically include speed of delivery, breadth of inventory, competitive pricing, and access to technical resources and specialized equipment.

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Shane O'Kelly, President and Chief Executive Officer

Shane O'Kelly joined Advance Auto Parts as President and Chief Executive Officer in September 2023. Prior to joining Advance, he served as CEO of HD Supply, a wholly owned subsidiary of The Home Depot, Inc. He also held the role of CEO of Home Depot Pro, previously known as Interline Brands, Inc. Before his time at The Home Depot, O'Kelly was CEO of PetroChoice, a large distributor of lubricants and lubrication solutions, and CEO of AH Harris, a specialty construction supply distributor. He began his career at The Home Depot and worked as an engagement manager at McKinsey and Company. O'Kelly served seven years as an infantry officer in the U.S. Army, graduating from Airborne and Ranger schools. He holds a bachelor's degree from The United States Military Academy at West Point and an MBA from Harvard Business School.

Ryan Grimsland, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Ryan Grimsland became Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Advance Auto Parts in November 2023. Before joining Advance, he spent 17 years at Lowe's Companies, Inc., where he most recently served as Senior Vice President, Strategy and Transformation. His roles at Lowe's also included Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance and Treasurer; Vice President, Corporate Financial Planning and Analysis; Vice President Business Development & International; and Vice President, Stores Finance. Earlier in his career, he held positions in operations and finance at Haverty's Furniture and UBS. Grimsland holds a bachelor's degree from High Point University and an MBA in accounting from Benedictine University.

Kristen Soler, Executive Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer

Kristen Soler serves as the Executive Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer at Advance Auto Parts.

Bruce Starnes, Executive Vice President, Chief Merchant

Bruce Starnes holds the position of Executive Vice President, Chief Merchant at Advance Auto Parts.

Stephen J. Szilagyi, Executive Vice President, Supply Chain

Stephen J. Szilagyi is the Executive Vice President, Supply Chain for Advance Auto Parts.

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Key Risks to Advance Auto Parts (AAP)

Intense Competition and Declining Market Share: Advance Auto Parts operates in a highly competitive market against strong rivals such as AutoZone and O'Reilly Automotive, which have demonstrated superior performance. The company has been experiencing a decline in market share and sales, despite implementing restructuring initiatives.
Operational Challenges and Turnaround Strategy Execution Risk: The company is undertaking a significant and complex transformation strategy involving the closure of over 700 stores and the sale of assets like Worldpac, alongside efforts to streamline operations. There are concerns regarding Advance Auto Parts' ability to successfully execute this strategy, achieve stable margins, and meet earnings targets, particularly given its historical underperformance and ongoing operational issues such as supply chain inefficiencies. Inventory liquidation related to these changes is also impacting gross margins.
Financial Health and Debt Structure: Advance Auto Parts faces concerns regarding its financial performance and debt structure. Its effective debt may be higher than reported due to supplier factoring arrangements, and net interest payments are substantial and projected to increase. A potential risk is that if banks reduce their willingness to extend competitive supplier credit, the company could encounter difficulties in acquiring inventory.

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Clear Emerging Threats to Advance Auto Parts (AAP):

Accelerating adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs): EVs fundamentally change the maintenance and parts requirements of vehicles, eliminating the need for many traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) specific parts (e.g., oil filters, spark plugs, exhaust systems, fuel pumps, belts). As EV market share continues to grow, the long-term demand for a significant portion of Advance Auto Parts' current product offerings will decrease, posing an existential threat to its core business model. This parallels the shift from traditional phones to smartphones, making many previous components obsolete.
Increasing penetration of online retailers in the automotive aftermarket: E-commerce platforms, including large general retailers like Amazon and specialized online auto parts stores (e.g., RockAuto, PartsGeek), continue to gain market share by offering competitive pricing, vast selection, and convenient delivery. This trend directly challenges Advance Auto Parts' reliance on its physical store footprint and traditional sales model, particularly for DIY customers who are increasingly comfortable purchasing parts online. This is analogous to how online streaming services disrupted physical media rental businesses.

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Advance Auto Parts primarily operates within the automotive aftermarket, providing a wide range of replacement parts, maintenance products, accessories, and services for both Do-It-Yourself (DIY) customers and professional installers. Their main products and services include batteries, brake pads and rotors, engine parts, chassis, steering and ride control components, motor oil, fluids, filters, and various accessories and tools. They also offer free in-store services such as battery testing and installation, and used oil and transmission fluid recycling.

The addressable market for these products and services is primarily the North American automotive aftermarket.

The U.S. automotive aftermarket, encompassing light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles, is projected to be nearly $535 billion in after-sales parts and accessories in 2024, and is expected to grow to approximately $574 billion by 2026. Focusing specifically on the light-duty automotive aftermarket in the U.S., the market size is projected at $405 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of nearly 6% projected through 2026.

For the broader North American region, the automotive aftermarket industry size was estimated at USD 108.73 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 127.51 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 2.5% from 2025 to 2030. The U.S. segment accounts for a dominant share of this North American market, representing 76% of the revenue in 2024.

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Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategic initiatives and market trends:

Strategic Pricing and Merchandising Excellence: The company is implementing strategic pricing investments and focusing on merchandising excellence to enhance its competitive position and improve gross margins. This includes reassessing its market pricing and making adjustments in high-visibility and elastic categories to better meet customer needs.
Supply Chain Transformation and Enhanced Parts Availability: Advance Auto Parts is investing significantly in its supply chain, including consolidating distribution centers (from 38 to 14 by 2026, with a target of 12 by 2026) and expanding its network of market hubs. These market hubs, which carry an extensive range of SKUs (75,000-85,000), are designed to improve same-day parts availability and speed of service for both professional (Pro) and DIY customers within a 60-90 store service area. This optimization is expected to reduce supply chain costs and directly boost sales by ensuring products are readily available.
Growth in the Professional (Pro) Segment: The company has demonstrated consistent positive comparable sales growth in its Pro segment and is actively working to enhance its pro-business operations. Initiatives focus on serving these customers faster and more effectively, which is a significant driver given the segment's strong performance.
Store Optimization and Gradual New Store Openings: While Advance Auto Parts has undertaken store optimization activities, including some closures to streamline operations, it also plans to gradually accelerate the pace of new store openings. The long-term target is to open approximately 100 new stores annually post-2027, which will expand its physical footprint and customer reach.
Capitalizing on Favorable Auto Aftermarket Trends: The broader auto aftermarket industry presents a supportive backdrop for growth. Advance Auto Parts aims to capitalize on macro trends such as an aging vehicle population and increased miles driven. These factors naturally lead to a greater need for vehicle repairs and maintenance, providing a fundamental demand driver for the company's products and services.

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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years) for Advance Auto Parts (AAP)

Share Repurchases

Annual share buybacks were $1.525 billion in 2022.
Share repurchases significantly decreased to $14.518 million in 2023 and $6.501 million in 2024.
For the third quarter of 2025, repurchases of common stock were $4 million.

Share Issuance

Proceeds from the issuance of common stock were $3 million in the third quarter of 2025.
In March 2025, the company proposed to amend its 2023 Omnibus Incentive Compensation Plan to increase shares available for issuance by 2,170,000.

Outbound Investments

Advance Auto Parts announced the sale of Worldpac for $1.5 billion in August 2024, expecting net proceeds of approximately $1.2 billion after taxes and transaction fees.
The sale of Worldpac was completed on November 1, 2024.

Capital Expenditures

Capital expenditures averaged $272.5 million for fiscal years ending January 2021 to 2024, peaking at $398.8 million in December 2022 and reaching a 5-year low of $180.8 million in 2024.
The company's full-year 2025 guidance for capital expenditures is approximately $300 million.
Capital expenditures are primarily focused on investments in existing store upgrades (IT infrastructure, equipment, repairs, inventory, and delivery) and opening new stores, including larger "market hubs." Advance Auto Parts plans to open 30 new stores in 2025 and at least an additional 100 new locations through 2027.

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What You Pay
P/E	-6.5	31.8	35.0	21.5	26.5	30.5	22.1	12.1	25.1	21.4	17.3
P/EBIT	-3.0	30.9	21.0	78.3	18.3	13.4	14.7	8.9	22.2	18.6	10.2
What You Get
Rev Chg Q	-5.2%	9.7%	12.7%	41.1%	3.0%	2.4%	9.6%	-15.9%	11.7%	3.4%	-3.5%
Rev Chg LTM	-5.3%	10.2%	13.0%	39.9%	1.2%	2.0%	7.0%	-4.2%	16.6%	2.0%	3.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-7.4%	14.2%	17.8%	41.7%	4.2%	4.9%	6.5%	4.6%	12.2%	14.5%	-2.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg	-0.5%	40.2%	35.6%	30.3%	27.4%	23.8%	21.8%	21.0%	20.5%	19.8%	19.0%

[1] Choosing top 10 best bets from each sector quarterly is an alpha producing strategy vs sector benchmark
[2] Historical annualized return of 14%, alpha of 2.9%, and sharpe of 0.61

Latest Trefis Analyses

	Title	Topic
0	DASHBOARDS
1	Advance Auto Parts Earnings Notes
2	Advance Auto Parts Earnings Notes
3	Can Advance Auto Parts Stock Recover If Markets Fall?	Return
4	Where Does Advance Auto Parts Stock Rank Among Competitors?
5	Day 5 of Gains Streak for Advance Auto Parts Stock with 28% Return (vs. 35% YTD) [7/11/2025]
6	AAP Dip Buy Analysis
7	Advance Auto Parts Market Price	Market Price
8	Advance Auto Parts Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -24.5% in 2024 and -33.9% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average)
9	Day 5 of Loss Streak for Advance Auto Parts Stock with -25% Return (vs. -26% YTD) [3/5/2025]	Notification
10	Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Operating Cash Flow Comparison	Financials

	Title
0	ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to AAP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique Key	Date	Ticker	Company	Category	Trade Strategy	6M Fwd Rtn	12M Fwd Rtn	12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE	11302025	BBWI	Bath & Body Works	Dip Buy	DB \| Insider Buys \| Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap	10.6%	10.6%	0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	11262025	HRB	H&R Block	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	4.8%	4.8%	-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	11262025	LRN	Stride	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	2.6%	2.6%	-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	11212025	ABNB	Airbnb	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	19.5%	19.5%	0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	11212025	MTN	Vail Resorts	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	3.9%	3.9%	-1.6%
AAP_8312024_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG	08312024	AAP	Advance Auto Parts	Dip Buy	DB \| FCF Yield \| Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap	-17.6%	37.9%	-32.3%

Recent Active Movers

Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
OMER	Omeros	0.9	75.5%	55.5%
DVAX	Dynavax Technologies	1.8	38.2%	20.4%
EWTX	Edgewise Therapeutics	2.9	25.5%	2.2%
AGIO	Agios Pharmaceuticals	1.7	18.6%	-11.2%
TVTX	Travere Therapeutics	3.6	13.9%	131.2%
KOD	Kodiak Sciences	1.6	13.2%	212.4%
RZLT	Rezolute	0.3	13.2%	-44.1%
UP	Wheels Up Experience	0.5	11.7%	-57.4%
FBYD	Falcons Beyond Global	0.7	9.5%	129.7%
BW	Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises	0.5	8.5%	226.2%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
ASTS	AST SpaceMobile	18.9	-8.9%	269.9%
QBTS	D-Wave Quantum	9.4	-5.5%	227.6%
NNE	Nano Nuclear Energy	1.2	-4.6%	21.7%
MNMD	Mind Medicine	1.2	-4.2%	93.0%
PPTA	Perpetua Resources	2.0	-4.0%	149.1%
KOS	Kosmos Energy	0.4	-4.0%	-73.6%
FRMI	Fermi	5.5	-4.0%	-75.7%
EXOD	Exodus Movement	0.4	-3.9%	-50.5%
TLRY	Tilray Brands	10.8	-3.6%	-23.7%
AEHR	Aehr Test Systems	0.7	-3.1%	32.7%

Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
OMER	Omeros	0.9	74.0%	55.5%
LUNR	Intuitive Machines	2.0	63.7%	-8.0%
AAOI	Applied Optoelectronics	2.6	51.1%	11.2%
FBYD	Falcons Beyond Global	0.7	47.2%	129.7%
FLY	Firefly Aerospace	3.8	45.9%	-55.2%
RKLB	Rocket Lab	39.8	43.0%	203.0%
DVAX	Dynavax Technologies	1.8	42.5%	20.4%
UAMY	United States Antimony	0.8	39.9%	258.8%
DJT	Trump Media & Technology	4.0	36.7%	-58.0%
RZLT	Rezolute	0.3	36.3%	-44.1%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
NOW	ServiceNow	31.7	-80.5%	-28.0%
TPL	Texas Pacific Land	6.8	-66.5%	-19.2%
LW	Lamb Weston	6.0	-28.6%	-34.8%
TLRY	Tilray Brands	10.8	-21.2%	-23.7%
INSP	Inspire Medical Systems	2.8	-19.1%	-48.4%
TDUP	ThredUp	0.8	-17.1%	354.7%
OLMA	Olema Pharmaceuticals	2.3	-15.8%	370.8%
IIPR	Innovative Industrial Properties	1.4	-12.9%	-15.7%
ABM	ABM Industries	2.6	-12.6%	-15.8%
FRMI	Fermi	5.5	-12.6%	-75.7%

Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1M Rtn	YTD Rtn
WVE	WAVE Life Sciences	3.0	144.6%	47.5%
TE	T1 Energy	1.1	124.5%	418.4%
ANF	Abercrombie & Fitch	6.0	93.2%	-15.2%
VERA	Vera Therapeutics	3.6	90.4%	31.6%
LUNR	Intuitive Machines	2.0	85.7%	-8.0%
AAOI	Applied Optoelectronics	2.6	82.5%	11.2%
RKLB	Rocket Lab	39.8	81.8%	203.0%
PL	Planet Labs PBC	6.2	76.1%	403.0%
NRGV	Energy Vault	0.8	66.9%	118.9%
FLY	Firefly Aerospace	3.8	60.4%	-55.2%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1M Rtn	YTD Rtn
RZLT	Rezolute	0.3	-72.0%	-44.1%
JANX	Janux Therapeutics	0.9	-54.6%	-73.3%
LENZ	LENZ Therapeutics	0.5	-46.3%	-40.6%
FRMI	Fermi	5.5	-45.2%	-75.7%
GOGO	Gogo	0.6	-34.1%	-43.0%
HPK	HighPeak Energy	0.6	-30.8%	-69.2%
ORIC	ORIC Pharmaceuticals	0.7	-28.5%	4.5%
FDMT	4D Molecular Therapeutics	0.5	-25.6%	45.4%
NKTR	Nektar Therapeutics	0.6	-25.1%	215.0%
LW	Lamb Weston	6.0	-24.8%	-34.8%

Peer Comparisons for Advance Auto Parts

Peers to compare with:

Financials

	AAP	ORLY	AZO	GPC	LKQ	Median
Name	Advance .	O'Reilly.	AutoZone	Genuine .	LKQ
Mkt Price	41.28	92.60	3,458.56	125.38	30.27	92.60
Mkt Cap	2.5	78.6	57.6	17.4	7.8	17.4
Rev LTM	8,625	17,463	19,288	24,061	14,046	17,463
Op Inc LTM	-748	3,371	3,553	1,415	1,255	1,415
FCF LTM	-401	1,563	1,854	134	676	676
FCF 3Y Avg	-42	1,968	1,938	631	795	795
CFO LTM	-191	2,753	3,250	666	948	948
CFO 3Y Avg	169	3,002	3,071	1,140	1,094	1,140

Growth & Margins

	AAP	ORLY	AZO	GPC	LKQ	Median
Name	Advance .	O'Reilly.	AutoZone	Genuine .	LKQ
Rev Chg LTM	-5.3%	6.2%	3.8%	3.3%	-3.0%	3.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-7.4%	7.5%	5.2%	4.1%	2.4%	4.1%
Rev Chg Q	-5.2%	7.8%	8.2%	4.9%	-1.9%	4.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM	-1.3%	2.0%	1.8%	1.2%	-0.5%	1.2%
Op Mgn LTM	-8.7%	19.3%	18.4%	5.9%	8.9%	8.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg	-2.2%	19.7%	19.7%	6.7%	9.8%	9.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM	0.4%	0.1%	-0.6%	0.1%	-0.4%	0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM	-2.2%	15.8%	16.8%	2.8%	6.7%	6.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg	1.9%	18.3%	16.6%	4.9%	8.0%	8.0%
FCF/Rev LTM	-4.7%	8.9%	9.6%	0.6%	4.8%	4.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg	-0.5%	12.0%	10.5%	2.7%	5.8%	5.8%

Valuation

	AAP	ORLY	AZO	GPC	LKQ	Median
Name	Advance .	O'Reilly.	AutoZone	Genuine .	LKQ
Mkt Cap	2.5	78.6	57.6	17.4	7.8	17.4
P/S	0.3	4.5	3.0	0.7	0.6	0.7
P/EBIT	-3.0	23.2	16.2	14.6	6.4	14.6
P/E	-6.6	31.6	23.4	21.6	11.0	21.6
P/CFO	-12.9	28.5	17.7	26.2	8.2	17.7
Total Yield	-12.8%	3.2%	4.3%	7.9%	13.1%	4.3%
Dividend Yield	2.4%	0.0%	0.0%	3.2%	4.0%	2.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg	0.1%	3.0%	3.6%	3.2%	7.6%	3.2%
D/E	2.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.8	0.4
Net D/E	0.8	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7	0.3

Returns

	AAP	ORLY	AZO	GPC	LKQ	Median
Name	Advance .	O'Reilly.	AutoZone	Genuine .	LKQ
1M Rtn	-18.9%	-6.5%	-10.2%	-0.1%	3.8%	-6.5%
3M Rtn	-32.0%	-10.5%	-17.2%	-8.8%	0.6%	-10.5%
6M Rtn	-10.8%	5.4%	-0.9%	6.8%	-16.4%	-0.9%
12M Rtn	-3.5%	13.7%	5.3%	10.3%	-14.7%	5.3%
3Y Rtn	-69.4%	66.6%	42.3%	-22.6%	-38.6%	-22.6%
1M Excs Rtn	-22.3%	-9.9%	-13.6%	-3.5%	0.5%	-9.9%
3M Excs Rtn	-35.6%	-16.4%	-21.3%	-12.2%	-3.0%	-16.4%
6M Excs Rtn	-22.9%	-8.0%	-14.7%	-5.9%	-29.6%	-14.7%
12M Excs Rtn	-19.9%	-3.0%	-10.6%	-5.0%	-32.0%	-10.6%
3Y Excs Rtn	-150.7%	-11.6%	-36.3%	-103.8%	-119.2%	-103.8%

FDIC Bank Data

$ Mil \| FY: 12/28	LTM	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Period End	10/4/2025	12/28/2024	12/30/2023	12/31/2022	1/1/2022	1/2/2021	12/28/2019
Filing Date	10/30/2025	2/26/2025	3/12/2024	2/28/2023	2/15/2022	2/22/2021	2/18/2020
Key Financials
Total Revenue	8,625	9,094	9,209	9,149	10,998	10,106	9,709
EBITDA	-543	-395	310	759	1,080	948	916
Operating Income	-748	-713	39	525	822	750	677
Net Income	-377	-336	30	464	597	493	487
EPS	-6.31	-5.63	0.50	7.70	9.32	7.17	6.87
Growth Rates
Total Revenue Growth	-5.3%	-1.2%	0.7%	-16.8%	8.8%	4.1%	1.3%
EBITDA Growth	-251.7%	-227.3%	-59.1%	-29.7%	13.9%	3.5%	7.8%
Operating Income Growth	-984.1%	-1934.3%	-92.6%	-36.2%	9.7%	10.7%	12.1%
Net Income Growth	-958.8%	-1229.3%	-93.6%	-22.2%	21.0%	1.3%	14.9%
Margins
EBITDA Margin	-6.3%	-4.3%	3.4%	8.3%	9.8%	9.4%	9.4%
Operating Income Margin	-8.7%	-7.8%	0.4%	5.7%	7.5%	7.4%	7.0%
Net Income Margin	-4.4%	-3.7%	0.3%	5.1%	5.4%	4.9%	5.0%
Cash & Debt
Total Cash	3,174	1,869	488	271	601	835	419
Total Debt	5,261	3,686	3,826	3,652	3,372	3,047	2,764
Net Debt / (Cash)	2,087	1,817	3,338	3,381	2,771	2,212	2,346
Cash Flows
Net Cash from Operations	-191	85	287	737	1,107	970	867
Free Cash from Operations	-401	-96	62	336	817	702	395
Returns to Shareholders
Dividends	60	60	209	336	161	56	17
Share Repurchases	5	7	15	618	906	470	498

$ Mil \| FY: 12/28	2025Q3	2025Q2	2025Q1	2024Q4	2024Q3	2024Q2	2024Q1	2023Q4	2023Q3	2023Q2	2023Q1	2022Q4
Period End	10/4/2025	7/12/2025	4/19/2025	12/28/2024	10/5/2024	7/13/2024	4/20/2024	12/30/2023	10/7/2023	7/15/2023	4/22/2023	12/31/2022
Filing Date	10/30/2025	8/14/2025	5/22/2025	2/26/2025	11/14/2024	8/22/2024	5/30/2024	3/12/2024	11/21/2023	8/23/2023	6/6/2023	2/28/2023
Key Financials Quarterly
Total Revenue	2,036	2,010	2,583	1,996	2,148	2,178	2,772	2,014	2,218	2,686	3,418	468
Ebitda	106	97	-15	-731	68	131	137	22	-35	198	190	-1
Operating Income	55	51	-13	-841	13	61	53	-42	-79	126	98	-33
Net Income	-1	15	24	-415	-6	45	40	-35	-62	79	48	78
EPS	-0.02	0.25	0.40	-6.94	-0.10	0.75	0.67	-0.59	-1.05	1.32	0.81	1.80
Key Financials TTM
Total Revenue TTM	8,625	8,737	8,905	9,094	9,112	9,183	9,691	10,336	8,790	9,213	9,192	9,149
Ebitda TTM	-543	-581	-547	-395	358	255	322	375	352	619	685	777
Operating Income TTM	-748	-790	-780	-714	85	-7	58	103	112	362	437	543
Net Income TTM	-377	-382	-352	-336	44	-12	21	30	142	320	386	478
Growth Rates Quarterly
Total Revenue Growth	-5.2%	-7.7%	-6.8%	-0.9%	-3.2%	-18.9%	-18.9%	330.5%	-16.0%	0.8%	1.3%	-80.5%
EBITDA Growth	55.9%	-26.0%	-110.9%	-3406.7%	293.2%	-33.9%	-27.8%	2015.9%	-115.1%	-25.0%	-32.6%	-100.8%
Operating Income Growth	323.1%	-16.4%	-124.5%	-1886.3%	116.5%	-51.6%	-45.9%	-27.0%	-145.9%	-37.5%	-51.8%	-134.7%
Net Income Growth	83.3%	-66.7%	-40.0%	-1080.8%	90.3%	-42.7%	-17.2%	-145.3%	-153.5%	-45.6%	-65.4%	24.8%
Margins Quarterly
EBITDA Margin	5.2%	4.8%	-0.6%	-36.6%	3.2%	6.0%	4.9%	1.1%	-1.6%	7.4%	5.6%	-0.2%
Operating Income Margin	2.7%	2.5%	-0.5%	-42.1%	0.6%	2.8%	1.9%	-2.1%	-3.5%	4.7%	2.9%	-7.1%
Net Income Margin	-0.0%	0.7%	0.9%	-20.8%	-0.3%	2.1%	1.4%	-1.7%	-2.8%	2.9%	1.4%	16.6%
Cash & Debt
Total Cash	3,174	1,657	1,672	1,869	464	479	-	488	318	277	226	271
Total Debt	5,261	3,646	3,671	3,686	3,807	3,965	0	3,826	3,996	4,130	4,170	3,652
Net Debt / (Cash)	2,087	1,989	1,999	1,817	3,342	3,486	-	3,338	3,678	3,853	3,943	3,381
Cash Flows Quarterly
FCF from Operations	-12	50	-156	-73	70	85	3	259	196	215	-383	253
Cash Flows TTM
FCF from Operations TTM	-191	-109	-74	85	417	543	673	287	282	261	409	737
Returns to Shareholders Quarterly
Dividends	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	90	89	0
Share Repurchases	1	1	2	1	1	2	3	0	0	1	13	76
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Quarterly
ROIC	5.3%	7.3%	-2.6%	-136.9%	1.6%	4.9%	-	-3.0%	-6.5%	9.6%	7.1%	-2.1%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) TTM
ROIC TTM	-21.9%	-24.9%	-24.4%	-30.0%	2.5%	-0.1%	-	3.1%	3.0%	7.3%	8.6%	12.6%

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Parts and Batteries	5,802	7,362	7,369	6,670	6,505
Accessories and Chemicals	2,026	2,231	2,200	2,122	2,039
Engine Maintenance	1,289	1,450	1,320	1,213	1,068
Other	92	112	110	101	97
Total	9,209	11,155	10,998	10,106	9,709

Price Behavior

Price Behavior

Market Price	$41.12
Market Cap ($ Bil)	2.5
First Trading Date	11/29/2001
Distance from 52W High	-37.9%
	50 Days	200 Days
DMA Price	$49.72	$48.97
DMA Trend	up	down
Distance from DMA	-17.3%	-16.0%
	3M	1YR
Volatility	54.7%	79.7%
Downside Capture	245.91	90.66
Upside Capture	14.39	73.53
Correlation (SPY)	27.1%	22.5%

AAP Betas & Captures as of 11/30/2025

	1M	2M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y
Beta	0.69	1.05	1.21	1.08	0.91	0.97
Up Beta	-1.13	1.70	2.01	2.29	0.90	0.94
Down Beta	1.28	1.28	1.16	1.27	1.04	0.99
Up Capture	118%	1%	33%	52%	76%	35%
Bmk +ve Days	12	25	38	73	141	426
Stock +ve Days	10	19	28	61	118	360
Down Capture	96%	130%	145%	61%	77%	105%
Bmk -ve Days	7	16	24	52	107	323
Stock -ve Days	9	22	34	64	130	388

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively

Based On 1-Year Data

		Comparison of AAP With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y)
	AAP	Sector ETF	Equity	Gold	Commodities	Real Estate	Bitcoin
Annualized Return	0.2%	8.3%	19.2%	71.9%	8.9%	6.0%	-10.4%
Annualized Volatility	79.3%	24.3%	19.5%	19.3%	15.3%	17.1%	35.0%
Sharpe Ratio	0.29	0.27	0.78	2.69	0.36	0.18	-0.12
Correlation With Other Assets		27.8%	22.7%	-6.0%	7.4%	24.7%	13.5%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLY, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Based On 5-Year Data

		Comparison of AAP With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y)
	AAP	Sector ETF	Equity	Gold	Commodities	Real Estate	Bitcoin
Annualized Return	-22.2%	9.8%	14.9%	18.7%	11.7%	4.8%	32.6%
Annualized Volatility	51.1%	23.8%	17.1%	15.5%	18.7%	18.9%	48.7%
Sharpe Ratio	-0.31	0.37	0.70	0.97	0.51	0.17	0.59
Correlation With Other Assets		32.2%	30.6%	0.3%	7.9%	29.3%	10.6%

Based On 10-Year Data

		Comparison of AAP With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y)
	AAP	Sector ETF	Equity	Gold	Commodities	Real Estate	Bitcoin
Annualized Return	-11.6%	13.1%	14.7%	14.9%	6.9%	5.2%	69.2%
Annualized Volatility	43.9%	22.0%	18.0%	14.8%	17.6%	20.8%	55.8%
Sharpe Ratio	-0.13	0.55	0.70	0.83	0.31	0.22	0.90
Correlation With Other Assets		40.0%	37.5%	1.9%	13.0%	34.3%	8.8%

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date	12152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity	10,451,941
Short Interest: % Change Since 11302025	1.1%
Average Daily Volume	1,505,650
Days-to-Cover Short Interest	6.94
Basic Shares Quantity	60,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares	17.4%

Returns Analyses

	Title
0	Can Advance Auto Parts Stock Recover If Markets Fall?
1	AAP YTD Stock Return Of -21% Outperforms GT by 28% and Underperforms BWA by -4.5%
2	Advance Auto Parts Stock Return Comparison
3	Advance Auto Parts Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -36.4% in 2022 and -1.1% 3-yr returns (below peer average)

Earnings Returns History

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	Forward Returns
Earnings Date	1D Returns	5D Returns	21D Returns
10/30/2025	-8.0%	-11.7%	-4.2%
7/24/2025	-10.3%	-16.0%	-16.4%
11/14/2024	0.6%	-5.6%	7.1%
8/22/2024	-17.5%	-24.7%	-33.8%
5/29/2024	-11.0%	-7.1%	-10.7%
2/28/2024	2.6%	12.2%	31.8%
8/23/2023	3.1%	-0.6%	-13.5%
5/31/2023	-35.0%	-41.1%	-39.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS
# Positive	9	6	7
# Negative	13	16	15
Median Positive	2.6%	4.2%	7.1%
Median Negative	-8.0%	-6.4%	-13.5%
Max Positive	6.2%	12.2%	31.8%
Max Negative	-35.0%	-41.1%	-39.2%

	Forward Returns
10/30/2025	-8.0%	-11.7%	-4.2%
7/24/2025	-10.3%	-16.0%	-16.4%
11/14/2024	0.6%	-5.6%	7.1%
8/22/2024	-17.5%	-24.7%	-33.8%
5/29/2024	-11.0%	-7.1%	-10.7%
2/28/2024	2.6%	12.2%	31.8%
8/23/2023	3.1%	-0.6%	-13.5%
5/31/2023	-35.0%	-41.1%	-39.2%
2/28/2023	3.1%	-3.9%	-17.7%
11/15/2022	-15.1%	-18.7%	-21.3%
8/23/2022	-9.6%	-14.4%	-16.8%
5/23/2022	-1.6%	3.6%	-1.7%
2/14/2022	-0.7%	-7.8%	-7.5%
11/15/2021	-2.6%	-4.2%	-1.1%
8/24/2021	0.0%	-3.2%	2.2%
6/2/2021	-1.7%	1.7%	5.9%
2/16/2021	1.8%	9.7%	17.2%
11/10/2020	-0.8%	-3.6%	0.8%
8/18/2020	1.1%	-2.4%	-4.0%
5/19/2020	3.6%	3.4%	13.6%
2/18/2020	6.2%	4.7%	-25.0%
11/12/2019	-7.5%	-3.1%	-7.7%
SUMMARY STATS
# Positive	9	6	7
# Negative	13	16	15
Median Positive	2.6%	4.2%	7.1%
Median Negative	-8.0%	-6.4%	-13.5%
Max Positive	6.2%	12.2%	31.8%
Max Negative	-35.0%	-41.1%	-39.2%

SEC Filings

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Report Date	Filing Date	Filing
9302025	10302025	10-Q 10/4/2025
6302025	8142025	10-Q 7/12/2025
3312025	5222025	10-Q 4/19/2025
12312024	2262025	10-K 12/28/2024
9302024	11142024	10-Q 10/5/2024
6302024	8222024	10-Q 7/13/2024
3312024	5302024	10-Q 4/20/2024
12312023	3122024	10-K 12/30/2023
9302023	11212023	10-Q 10/7/2023
6302023	8232023	10-Q 7/15/2023
3312023	6062023	10-Q 4/22/2023
12312022	2282023	10-K 12/31/2022
9302022	11162022	10-Q 10/8/2022
6302022	8242022	10-Q 7/16/2022
3312022	5242022	10-Q 4/23/2022
12312021	2152022	10-K 1/1/2022

Insider Activity

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External Quote Links

0	Y Finance	Barrons
1	TradingView	Morningstar
2	SeekingAlpha	ValueLine
3	Motley Fool	Robinhood
4	CNBC	Etrade
5	MarketWatch	Unusual Whales
6	YCharts	Perplexity Finance
7	FinViz

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Advance Auto Parts (AAP)

Market Price (12/24/2025): $41.28 | Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail

Advance Auto Parts (AAP)

Market Price (12/24/2025): $41.28Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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INDUSTRY: Automotive Retail

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for AAP: -7.4% | 0.3x)

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for AAP: -5.3%)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for AAP: -7.4%)

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for AAP: -8.7%)

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for AAP: -2.2%)

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for AAP: -4.7%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for AAP: -12.8%)

SECTOR: Consumer Discretionary

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for AAP: -7.4% | 0.3x)

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for AAP: -5.3%)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for AAP: -7.4%)

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for AAP: -8.7%)

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for AAP: -2.2%)

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for AAP: -4.7%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for AAP: -12.8%)

All Other Sectors

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for AAP: -7.4% | 0.3x)

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for AAP: -5.3%)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for AAP: -7.4%)

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for AAP: -8.7%)

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for AAP: -2.2%)

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for AAP: -4.7%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for AAP: -12.8%)

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Market Price (12/24/2025): $41.28 | Market Cap: $2.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail

Market Price (12/24/2025): $41.28
Market Cap: $2.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Retail