AutoZone (AZO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3825.23 | Market Cap: $63.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
AutoZone (AZO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3825.23Market Cap: $63.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Automation & Robotics, and Automotive Aftermarket Innovation. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Automation & Robotics, and Automotive Aftermarket Innovation. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AZO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The approximate 8.9% decline in AutoZone (AZO) stock from late August 2025 to early December 2025 can be attributed to several key factors:
1. Q4 Fiscal 2025 Earnings Miss: AutoZone reported its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings (for the period ending August 30, 2025) at $48.71 per share, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $50.52. This earnings miss, despite sales topping expectations, concerned investors.
2. Pressure on Operating Margins: The company experienced a decline in its operating margin, which fell to 19.2% from 20.9% in the comparable period last year, indicating profitability pressures.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AZO Return | -0% | 77% | 18% | 5% | 24% | 20% | 221% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 50% | -24% | 2% | -17% | 1% | 4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AZO Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 64% | 63% | 37% | 48% | 50% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AZO Max Drawdown | -39% | -6% | -15% | -6% | -2% | -0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -6% | -36% | -21% | -27% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ORLY, LEA, GNTX, AAP, ONEW. See AZO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AZO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 191 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ORLY, LEA, GNTX, AAP, ONEW
In The Past
AutoZone's stock fell -21.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -21.4% loss requires a 27.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AZO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 05312023 | AZO | AutoZone | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 8.8% | 16.2% | -3.4% |
| 04302022 | AZO | AutoZone | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.1% | 36.2% | -9.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 05312023 | AZO | AutoZone | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 8.8% | 16.2% | -3.4% |
| 04302022 | AZO | AutoZone | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.1% | 36.2% | -9.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for AutoZone
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | - |
| Mkt Cap | - |
| Rev LTM | - |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | - |
| FCF 3Y Avg | - |
| CFO LTM | - |
| CFO 3Y Avg | - |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | - |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Rev Chg Q | - |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | - |
| FCF/Rev LTM | - |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | - |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | - |
| P/S | - |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | - |
| P/CFO | - |
| Total Yield | - |
| Dividend Yield | - |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | - |
| D/E | - |
| Net D/E | - |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | - |
| 3M Rtn | - |
| 6M Rtn | - |
| 12M Rtn | - |
| 3Y Rtn | - |
| 1M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3M Excs Rtn | - |
| 6M Excs Rtn | - |
| 12M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | - |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 10272025 | 10-K 8/30/2025 |
| 5312025 | 6132025 | 10-Q 5/10/2025 |
| 2282025 | 3212025 | 10-Q 2/15/2025 |
| 11302024 | 12202024 | 10-Q 11/23/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10282024 | 10-K 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 6072024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 2292024 | 3152024 | 10-Q 2/10/2024 |
| 11302023 | 12182023 | 10-Q 11/18/2023 |
| 8312023 | 10242023 | 10-K 8/26/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6092023 | 10-Q 5/6/2023 |
| 2282023 | 3172023 | 10-Q 2/11/2023 |
| 11302022 | 12202022 | 10-Q 11/19/2022 |
| 8312022 | 10242022 | 10-K 8/27/2022 |
| 5312022 | 6102022 | 10-Q 5/7/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3182022 | 10-Q 2/12/2022 |
| 11302021 | 12172021 | 10-Q 11/20/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |