Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $67.25 | Market Cap: $43.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $67.25Market Cap: $43.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.0%, FCF Yield is 8.3% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.5%, Dist 3Y High is -1.5% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 8.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.1 Bil | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Renewable Fuel Production. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.0%, FCF Yield is 8.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 8.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.1 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Renewable Fuel Production. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.5%, Dist 3Y High is -1.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DAL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the movement of Delta Air Lines (DAL) stock by 9.2% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat and Positive Future Outlook.
Delta Air Lines reported impressive third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 9, 2025, exceeding analysts' expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company's adjusted EPS of $1.71 surpassed the forecasted $1.53, and revenue reached $15.2 billion against a $15.04 billion forecast. Following this announcement, Delta's stock surged over 8% in pre-market trading. Management also provided an optimistic outlook, projecting a double-digit operating margin for the fourth quarter of 2025 and adjusted EPS of approximately $6 for the full year 2025, in the upper half of its previous guidance.
2. Robust and Sustained Travel Demand.
Throughout this period, there was strong evidence of healthy and increasing travel demand. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported an "encouraging" end to the year for air travel, with October 2025 demand up 6.6% compared to October 2024. Delta's CEO Ed Bastian confirmed that demand remained healthy for the December quarter and trends were strong heading into early 2026. Domestic passenger revenue grew 5% year-over-year in the third quarter, driven by an acceleration in corporate sales, which were up 8% over the prior year. This sustained demand, particularly in premium segments, bolstered investor confidence in the airline's revenue streams.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DAL Return | -31% | -3% | -16% | 23% | 52% | 12% | 19% |
| Peers Return | -23% | 0% | -11% | 3% | 52% | -5% | 2% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DAL Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 19% | 38% | 31% | 37% | 44% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DAL Max Drawdown | -67% | -17% | -28% | -6% | -8% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -41% | -7% | -25% | -20% | -18% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UAL, OSW, ULCC, CAKR, RJET. See DAL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DAL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 588 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -69.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 223.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1636 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 190 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -81.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 447.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1604 days | 1480 days |
Compare to UAL, OSW, ULCC, CAKR, RJET
In The Past
Delta Air Lines's stock fell -45.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2021. A -45.8% loss requires a 84.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Delta Air Lines
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 20.01 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.0 |
| Rev LTM | 3,729 |
| Op Inc LTM | 258 |
| FCF LTM | 138 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 63 |
| CFO LTM | 222 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 245 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 18.0 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 5.6 |
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/CFO | 4.0 |
| Total Yield | 7.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 18.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 30.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 95.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 16.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 31.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airline | 54,669 | 45,605 | 26,670 | 15,945 | 46,910 |
| Refinery | 7,572 | 10,706 | 6,054 | 3,143 | 5,558 |
| Intersegment Sales/Other | -4,193 | -5,729 | -2,825 | -1,993 | -5,461 |
| Total | 58,048 | 50,582 | 29,899 | 17,095 | 47,007 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airline | 5,136 | 2,884 | 1,888 | -12,253 | 6,542 |
| Refinery | 385 | 777 | -2 | -216 | 76 |
| Total | 5,521 | 3,661 | 1,886 | -12,469 | 6,618 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airline | 71,529 | 69,355 | 70,417 | 70,548 | 62,793 |
| Refinery | 2,174 | 3,039 | 2,099 | 1,448 | 1,739 |
| Intersegment Sales/Other | -59 | -106 | -57 | ||
| Total | 73,644 | 72,288 | 72,459 | 71,996 | 64,532 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10092025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7102025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10102024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7112024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2122024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10122023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7132023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4132023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10132022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7132022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
