SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $131.74 | Market Cap: $5.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors
SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $131.74Market Cap: $5.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Trading Companies & Distributors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Green Building Materials, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Green Building Materials, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SITE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points that could explain a significant downward movement, such as -6.5%, for SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE) during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Analyst Downgrades and Lowered Price Targets.
During this period, several analyst firms adjusted their outlook on SiteOne Landscape Supply, contributing to potential negative sentiment. Notably, William Blair downgraded the stock from "Buy" to "Hold" on October 15, 2025. Goldman Sachs also lowered its price target for SITE from $158 to $138 while maintaining a "Hold" rating on October 13, 2025. Additionally, Barclays maintained a "Sell" rating and reduced its price target from $106 to $120 on October 30, 2025.
2. Lingering Concerns Over Soft End Markets and Economic Headwinds.
SiteOne's second-quarter 2025 earnings report, released on July 30, 2025, indicated ongoing soft demand in the new residential construction and repair and upgrade end markets, with expectations for these conditions to persist. Broader market outlooks for Q4 2025 also highlighted weakening economic fundamentals, which could create a challenging environment for industries tied to construction and landscaping, thereby putting pressure on SiteOne's stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SITE Return | 75% | 53% | -52% | 39% | -19% | 1% | 47% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 27% | -14% | 22% | 10% | 10% | 79% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SITE Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 25% | 58% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 59% | 50% | 55% | 50% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SITE Max Drawdown | -37% | -4% | -58% | 0% | -29% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -49% | -4% | -36% | -17% | -22% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BG, CPRI, DOLE, BV, URI. See SITE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SITE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 149.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -51.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -49.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 98.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 348 days | 120 days |
Compare to BG, CPRI, DOLE, BV, URI
In The Past
SiteOne Landscape Supply's stock fell -60.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/24/2021. A -60.0% loss requires a 149.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SITE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for SiteOne Landscape Supply
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 61.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| Rev LTM | 6,715 |
| Op Inc LTM | 230 |
| FCF LTM | 55 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 186 |
| CFO LTM | 258 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 347 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 13.5 |
| P/E | 26.8 |
| P/CFO | 17.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -38.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 1/1/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 1/2/2022 |
External Quote Links
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