Ferguson Enterprises (FERG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $252.75 | Market Cap: $49.7 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors
Ferguson Enterprises (FERG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $252.75Market Cap: $49.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Trading Companies & Distributors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.5% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Wastewater Management, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Wastewater Management, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FERG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Ferguson Enterprises reported stronger-than-expected financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024. This included sales of $8.5 billion, a 6.9% increase from the prior year, surpassing analyst estimates. Adjusted earnings per share also exceeded expectations at $3.48, up 16.8% from the previous year.
2. The company demonstrated robust performance in its U.S. operations, particularly in the non-residential sector, which saw revenue increase by approximately 15%. Overall U.S. sales grew by 7.1% in the quarter.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FERG Return | - | - | - | - | - | 47% | 47% |
| Peers Return | 21% | 35% | -16% | 54% | -6% | 9% | 115% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FERG Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 25% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 60% | 40% | 58% | 50% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FERG Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -3% | -30% | -8% | -21% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WSO, SNX, SSD, LEG, URI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
FERG has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1463 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FERG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ferguson Enterprises
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 211.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.0 |
| Rev LTM | 11,700 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,040 |
| FCF LTM | 465 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 493 |
| CFO LTM | 591 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 786 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.0 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 15.3 |
| P/E | 21.6 |
| P/CFO | 18.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 58.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9262025 | 10-K 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6032025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3112025 | Quarterly 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12102024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9252024 | Annual 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6052024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3062024 | Quarterly 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12062023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9262023 | 10-K 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6072023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3082023 | 10-Q 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12082022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |