Trex (TREX)
Market Price (7/10/2026): $46.77 | Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
Trex (TREX)
Market Price (7/10/2026): $46.77Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Key risksTREX key risks include [1] margin pressure from volatile raw material costs for recycled plastics and wood fibers. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Key risksTREX key risks include [1] margin pressure from volatile raw material costs for recycled plastics and wood fibers. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Trex (TREX) stock has gained about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat: Trex reported robust financial results for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), with diluted earnings per share reaching $0.59, significantly exceeding analyst consensus estimates of $0.51 by 15.69%. Concurrently, net sales for the quarter increased 1% year-over-year to $343 million, also surpassing analyst projections of $339.99 million.
2. Enhanced Capital Allocation and Improved Free Cash Flow Outlook: The company demonstrated a commitment to returning capital to shareholders by executing a $100 million accelerated share repurchase program in fiscal Q1 2026, as part of a larger $150 million program anticipated to conclude in fiscal Q2 2026. Additionally, Trex is nearing the completion of its significant capital investment cycle for the new Little Rock facility, projecting a substantial reduction in capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 to between $100 million and $120 million, down from $224 million in 2025. This reduction is expected to drive meaningful improvements in free cash flow.
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Trex (TREX) stock has gained about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat: Trex reported robust financial results for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), with diluted earnings per share reaching $0.59, significantly exceeding analyst consensus estimates of $0.51 by 15.69%. Concurrently, net sales for the quarter increased 1% year-over-year to $343 million, also surpassing analyst projections of $339.99 million.
2. Enhanced Capital Allocation and Improved Free Cash Flow Outlook: The company demonstrated a commitment to returning capital to shareholders by executing a $100 million accelerated share repurchase program in fiscal Q1 2026, as part of a larger $150 million program anticipated to conclude in fiscal Q2 2026. Additionally, Trex is nearing the completion of its significant capital investment cycle for the new Little Rock facility, projecting a substantial reduction in capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 to between $100 million and $120 million, down from $224 million in 2025. This reduction is expected to drive meaningful improvements in free cash flow.
3. Favorable Operational Performance and Strategic Growth Initiatives: Trex achieved a gross margin of 40.5% in fiscal Q1 2026, outperforming internal expectations by 100 basis points due to a positive mix from higher-margin premium decking products and operational efficiencies. The company also launched five new long-term strategic priorities focused on innovation, enhanced execution, and renewed investment in its brand, coupled with securing recent home center stocking wins to drive above-industry growth.
4. Supportive Macroeconomic Trends from Housing Legislation: The passage of the bipartisan "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" by both chambers of Congress in June 2026 is expected to provide a positive macroeconomic tailwind for building product suppliers like Trex. This legislation aims to increase builder volumes and shift demand towards new construction, potentially expanding the addressable market for Trex's outdoor living products.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.4% change in TREX stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.42 | 46.76 | 28.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,174 | 1,178 | 0.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.2% | 16.3% | 0.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.3 | 25.7 | 26.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 106 | 105 | 1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TREX | 28.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 53.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.0% | 65.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.3% change in TREX stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 43.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 35.08 | 46.76 | 33.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,181 | 1,178 | -0.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.8% | 16.3% | -8.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.9 | 25.7 | 43.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 107 | 105 | 2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 33.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TREX | 33.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.5% | 54.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 17.1% | 65.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.0% change in TREX stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 54.38 | 46.76 | -14.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,118 | 1,178 | 5.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.8% | 16.3% | -13.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.8 | 25.7 | -7.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 107 | 105 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TREX | -14.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.7% | 36.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 24.0% | 45.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -28.7% change in TREX stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -44.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 65.56 | 46.76 | -28.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,006 | 1,178 | 17.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.4% | 16.3% | 5.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 46.1 | 25.7 | -44.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 109 | 105 | 3.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -28.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TREX | -28.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 49.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 75.8% | 54.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TREX Return | 61% | -69% | 96% | -17% | -49% | 31% | -45% |
| Peers Return | 47% | -25% | 48% | -9% | -22% | -5% | 9% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TREX Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 25% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 38% | 46% | 46% | 42% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TREX Max Drawdown | -20% | -70% | -29% | -41% | -60% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -40% | -25% | -22% | -32% | -40% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FBIN, UFPI. See TREX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TREX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -19.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -18.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -38.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Trex's stock fell -23.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 31.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | TREX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 18 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -38.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -32.8% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -45.5% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.5% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Trex's stock fell -23.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 31.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Trex (TREX)
Trex Company, Inc. is a leading manufacturer and distributor of high-performance, low-maintenance composite decking, railing, and other outdoor living products. The company primarily targets the residential market with its core offerings, including various series of composite decking such as Trex Transcend, Trex Select, and Trex Enhance, which are designed to resist fading, staining, mold, and scratching. Complementary products for residential outdoor spaces include hidden fastening systems, specialized deck lighting, and fencing solutions.
Beyond its extensive decking portfolio, Trex provides a comprehensive range of residential railing systems, including aluminum options, and expands its brand reach through licensing agreements. These agreements allow third parties to manufacture and sell Trex-branded products like outdoor furniture, deck drainage systems (Trex RainEscape), pergolas, and outdoor kitchens. In addition to its strong residential focus, Trex operates a commercial segment, designing, engineering, and marketing architectural and aluminum railing systems, as well as staging equipment and accessories for venues such as sports stadiums and performing arts centers.
The company distributes its residential products through a broad network of wholesale distributors, retail lumber dealers, and major home improvement chains like Home Depot and Lowe's. For its commercial market, Trex engages directly with clients through its sales staff, independent representatives, and project bidding. This dual-market strategy positions Trex to serve both individual homeowners seeking durable outdoor living solutions and large-scale commercial projects requiring specialized architectural components.
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Here are a few analogies for Trex:
- The YETI of outdoor decking: Trex is known for its durable, premium, and often high-performance outdoor decking and living products, much like YETI is known for its robust and sought-after outdoor gear.
- The Beyond Meat for wood decking: Trex specializes in composite decking, offering a high-performance, low-maintenance, and often more sustainable alternative to traditional wood decking, similar to how Beyond Meat offers plant-based alternatives to traditional meat.
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- Decking Products: Composite decking boards like Trex Transcend, Trex Select, and Trex Enhance, designed for durability and resistance to various elements.
- Railing Systems: A variety of railing products, including Trex Transcend Railing, Trex Select Railing, Trex Enhance Railing, and Trex Signature aluminum railing, for use with decking and other materials.
- Fencing Products: Trex Seclusions, a fencing system comprising structural posts, rails, pickets, and decorative caps.
- Commercial Architectural Systems: Designed, engineered, and marketed architectural and aluminum railing systems, and staging equipment for commercial markets, sports stadiums, and performing arts venues.
- Deck Accessories & Lighting: Products such as Trex Hideaway hidden fastening systems and Trex DeckLighting, which are LED dimmable lighting for posts, floors, and steps.
- Licensed Products: A range of products manufactured by third parties under the Trex name, including outdoor furniture, deck drainage systems (Trex RainEscape), pergolas, lattice boards, cornhole boards, saw blades (Diablo Trex Blade), spiral stairs, and outdoor kitchens.
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Trex Company, Inc. primarily sells its products to other businesses. Its major customers include large retail chains and wholesale distributors that then sell to end-users (individuals and contractors).
The specific major customer companies mentioned in the description are:
- Home Depot (Symbol: HD)
- Lowe's (Symbol: LOW)
In addition, Trex sells through wholesale distributors and retail lumber dealers, which represent categories of its business customers.
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Bryan H. Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer
Bryan H. Fairbanks joined Trex in 2004. He has served as President and Chief Executive Officer since April 2020. Prior to this role, he was the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before joining Trex, Mr. Fairbanks held several senior finance roles at Ford Motor Company. Mr. Fairbanks will retire from Trex as President and Chief Executive Officer on April 28, 2026.
Prithvi S. Gandhi, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Prithvi S. Gandhi was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Trex Company, Inc. effective October 6, 2025. He brings over 25 years of financial leadership experience across various sectors, including building products and manufacturing. Prior to joining Trex, he served as Executive Vice President and CFO at Beacon Roofing Supply. He also held the position of Vice President and CFO at TAMKO Building Products, LLC, and had an eight-year tenure at Owens Corning, including serving as Interim CFO from 2019-2020.
Adam D. Zambanini, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Adam D. Zambanini has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer since October 2023. He joined Trex in September 2005 and has held multiple leadership positions, including President of Residential Products (July 2018 to October 2023) and Vice President of Marketing (January 2011 to July 2018). Before Trex, he held marketing and market development roles at Rubbermaid Commercial Products and began his career as a project engineer at Flambeau Inc. Mr. Zambanini is appointed as the next President and Chief Executive Officer, effective April 28, 2026.
Amy M. Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, Secretary, and Chief Sustainability Officer
Amy M. Fernandez was appointed Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary in December 2021. She has extensive experience in corporate legal leadership roles across various industries. Her previous roles include General Counsel at Lavazza Group and various high-ranking legal positions at Mars, such as Associate General Counsel for Global Drinks and Food Americas. She also contributed to Armstrong World Industries and Colgate-Palmolive Company.
Ronald W. Kaplan, Vice Chairman
Ronald W. Kaplan has served as Vice Chairman of Trex Company, Inc. He was previously President and Chief Executive Officer of Trex from January 2008 to August 2015. Mr. Kaplan was one of the four former Mobil executives who led the leveraged buyout that established Trex Company in 1996. His career includes serving as CEO of Continental Global Group, Inc. and holding various financial and operating capacities at Harsco Corporation.
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1. Dependence on the Residential Housing and Repair & Remodel Market
Trex's business is highly sensitive to consumer spending on home improvement, particularly in the repair and remodel (R&R) sector. A slowdown in this market, often influenced by macroeconomic factors such as elevated interest rates, inflation, and a softer housing market, directly impacts Trex's sales and revenue. Recent financial performance and outlook have been significantly affected by this market weakness and channel de-stocking by distributors.2. Intensifying Competition and Price Sensitivity
The composite decking industry is highly competitive, with significant players like Azek (TimberTech) and Fiberon. This intense rivalry can lead to pressure on pricing and margins, especially as consumers become more price-sensitive. The acquisition of Azek by James Hardie has further intensified this competitive landscape, posing a threat to Trex's market share and profitability.3. Raw Material Price Volatility and Supply Chain Disruptions
As a manufacturer of composite products, Trex relies on the consistent supply and stable pricing of raw materials, primarily recycled plastic film and wood fiber. Fluctuations in the cost of these raw materials and potential disruptions within the supply chain can directly impact the company's production costs and overall profitability.AI Analysis | Feedback
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Trex Company, Inc. operates within several significant addressable markets for its decking, railing, and outdoor living products, primarily in the United States and North America.
Trex estimates its overall addressable market for decking, railing, and adjacent products to be approximately $14 billion.
Breaking this down by key product categories:
- U.S. Composite Decking Market: This market was valued at approximately USD 4.91 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 19.85 billion by 2033, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 16.8% from 2026 to 2033. Another estimate placed the U.S. composite decking market at USD 4,596.95 million in 2022, expected to reach USD 12,220.72 million by 2030 with a CAGR of 13%. Trex holds a dominant 13% market share in the $8 billion composite decking category in North America.
- U.S. Composite Railing & Decking Market: The combined U.S. composite railing and decking market size was an estimated USD 0.99 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 2.87 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 11.0% from 2025 to 2033. Another report indicated the Composite Decking and Railing Market was valued at USD 3,671.10 million in 2024, with an expected increase to USD 7,573.85 million by 2031 at a CAGR of 10.9%. North America is a leading region in the composite decks and railings market, holding approximately 60% of the global market share.
- U.S. Outdoor Living Structures Market: This market was estimated at USD 892.9 million in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.3% from 2025 to 2030. Another valuation placed the U.S. outdoor living structure market at approximately $1,258.9 million in 2022, with a projected CAGR of 5.9% from 2023 to 2030.
- U.S. Outdoor Furniture Market: The United States outdoor furniture market size is expected to grow from USD 6.98 billion in 2025 to USD 10.03 billion by 2031, at a 6.24% CAGR over 2026–2031.
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Trex Company, Inc. (TREX) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Continued Conversion from Wood to Composite Decking: A primary driver for Trex is the ongoing shift of the decking market from traditional wood products to composite alternatives. The company aims to capture a larger share of this conversion, highlighting the long-term economic and environmental benefits of composite decking over wood.
- Product Innovation and Expansion Across Outdoor Living Categories: Trex consistently introduces new and enhanced products, including premium decking lines with advanced features like heat-mitigating technology (e.g., Trex Transcend Lineage, Trex Refuge fire-oriented decking, SunComfortable™ decking). This innovation extends to a broader range of outdoor living products and accessories, which are designed to increase ticket sizes and attachment rates.
- Significant Growth in the Railing Segment: Trex is actively pursuing an aggressive strategy to expand its market share in the residential railing business. The company has reported strong double-digit growth in railing sales and is introducing new systems, including steel, mesh, aluminum, cable, and glass railing options, to achieve its goal of doubling its market share within five years.
- Enhanced Distribution and Channel Penetration: Domestically, Trex is focused on strengthening its presence by densifying pro-dealer coverage and improving point-of-sale engagement with major home-center retailers. This includes strategic partnerships, such as expanding stocking locations in the Western U.S. through agreements with distributors like International Wood Products, LLC. Additionally, international expansion in key markets like Canada, the U.K./Europe, and Australia is targeted to meaningfully increase single-digit international revenue.
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Share Repurchases
- Trex's Board of Directors authorized a $150 million share repurchase program in May 2023, which has no set expiration date.
- In 2025, the company repurchased approximately 1.5 million shares, returning $50 million to shareholders.
- In March 2026, Trex announced a $100 million Accelerated Share Repurchase program, which is part of its $150 million board-approved authorization.
Share Issuance
- No significant share issuances have been reported over the last 3-5 years; shares outstanding generally decreased due to repurchases.
Capital Expenditures
- Trex's capital expenditures averaged $191.5 million annually from fiscal years 2021 to 2025.
- Capital expenditures in 2025 totaled $233.6 million, primarily focused on the build-out of the Arkansas facility and other capacity expansion initiatives.
- For 2026, capital expenditures are projected to be between $100 million and $120 million, with a focus on internal growth opportunities, manufacturing cost reductions, and equipment upgrades, as the Arkansas facility is substantially complete.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Trex Earnings Notes | 12/28/2026 | |
| Should You Buy Trex Stock? | 11/06/2025 | |
| Is Trex Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | 11/06/2025 | |
| Trex vs Alphabet: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| Trex vs Union Pacific: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| How Does Trex Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than TREX Stock: Pay Less Than Trex To Get More From GOOGL, KO | 08/12/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than TREX Stock: Pay Less Than Trex To Get More From HON, UNP | 08/12/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 11/21/2025 | |
| Buy or Sell Trex Stock? | 11/06/2025 | |
| Trex Stock Lost 31%, Buy Or Wait? | 11/06/2025 |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 49.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| Rev LTM | 4,441 |
| Op Inc LTM | 339 |
| FCF LTM | 301 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 463 |
| CFO LTM | 443 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 669 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -20.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -9.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.3 |
| P/EBIT | 12.3 |
| P/E | 21.8 |
| P/CFO | 12.5 |
| Total Yield | 6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -21.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -26.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -40.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -95.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 1,174 | 1,151 | |||
| Trex Residential | 1,095 | 1,060 | 1,139 | ||
| Trex Commercial | 47 | 58 | |||
| Total | 1,174 | 1,151 | 1,095 | 1,106 | 1,197 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trex Residential | 276 | 268 | 327 | 228 | 186 |
| Trex Commercial | -21 | -51 | 6 | 3 | |
| Total | 276 | 247 | 275 | 234 | 188 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trex Residential | 226 | 205 | 201 | 247 | 171 |
| Trex Commercial | -16 | -38 | 4 | ||
| Total | 226 | 205 | 185 | 209 | 176 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trex Residential | 1,324 | 933 | 934 | 881 | 677 |
| Trex Commercial | 0 | 39 | 94 | ||
| Total | 1,324 | 933 | 934 | 920 | 770 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $46.76 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/08/1999 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -31.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $42.95 | $41.39 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 8.9% | 13.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 48.0% | 51.4% |
| Downside Capture | 190.02 | 160.99 |
| Upside Capture | 184.78 | 94.23 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 51.4% | 36.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.53 | 1.95 | 1.74 | 1.63 | 1.49 | 1.45 |
| Up Beta | 1.28 | 2.65 | 1.86 | 1.95 | 2.05 | 1.58 |
| Down Beta | 2.98 | 2.21 | 1.89 | 2.01 | 1.61 | 1.14 |
| Up Capture | 253% | 258% | 204% | 192% | 96% | 231% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 63 | 119 | 375 |
| Down Capture | 9% | 105% | 141% | 108% | 126% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 29 | 62 | 132 | 372 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TREX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TREX | -20.3% | 51.4% | -0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 23.0% | 16.7% | 1.07 | 45.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.3% | 12.5% | 1.33 | 36.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.4% | 27.8% | 0.77 | 11.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 23.6% | 18.7% | 1.00 | -17.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.2% | 13.9% | 0.65 | 34.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.8% | 42.8% | -1.18 | 15.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TREX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TREX | -14.0% | 47.5% | -0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.7% | 17.6% | 0.61 | 57.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 56.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.0% | 18.3% | 0.80 | 8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.5% | 0.28 | 0.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 50.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.3% | 53.5% | 0.42 | 27.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TREX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TREX | 24.9% | 56.7% | 0.59 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.8% | 20.0% | 0.65 | 43.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 45.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.7% | 16.1% | 0.59 | 7.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.1% | 18.0% | 0.27 | 8.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 37.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 13.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -1.8% | -4.8% | -0.7% |
| 2/24/2026 | 0.6% | -3.1% | -10.0% |
| 11/4/2025 | -31.1% | -30.3% | -26.7% |
| 8/4/2025 | 2.3% | -8.8% | -7.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | -0.9% | 3.0% | -2.1% |
| 2/24/2025 | 1.2% | -3.4% | 0.6% |
| 10/28/2024 | 6.2% | 6.1% | 13.0% |
| 8/6/2024 | -21.5% | -19.8% | -20.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 14 | 15 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 6.6% | 13.0% |
| Median Negative | -5.2% | -5.6% | -10.0% |
| Max Positive | 14.7% | 11.3% | 115.5% |
| Max Negative | -31.1% | -30.3% | -26.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -1.8% | -4.8% | -0.7% |
| 2/24/2026 | 0.6% | -3.1% | -10.0% |
| 11/4/2025 | -31.1% | -30.3% | -26.7% |
| 8/4/2025 | 2.3% | -8.8% | -7.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | -0.9% | 3.0% | -2.1% |
| 2/24/2025 | 1.2% | -3.4% | 0.6% |
| 10/28/2024 | 6.2% | 6.1% | 13.0% |
| 8/6/2024 | -21.5% | -19.8% | -20.5% |
| 5/9/2024 | -6.5% | -5.1% | -12.8% |
| 2/26/2024 | -1.8% | 1.2% | 3.4% |
| 10/30/2023 | 1.6% | 8.8% | 27.0% |
| 7/31/2023 | 9.8% | 8.2% | 3.2% |
| 5/8/2023 | 8.2% | 2.2% | 3.4% |
| 2/27/2023 | -0.5% | -1.0% | -9.8% |
| 10/31/2022 | -8.3% | -8.8% | -4.6% |
| 8/8/2022 | -15.0% | -9.8% | -26.3% |
| 5/9/2022 | 5.3% | 6.6% | 16.1% |
| 2/28/2022 | -9.5% | -25.2% | -19.4% |
| 11/8/2021 | 14.7% | 11.3% | 21.3% |
| 8/2/2021 | 0.5% | 7.9% | 13.3% |
| 5/10/2021 | -1.6% | -5.6% | -9.3% |
| 2/22/2021 | -9.0% | -6.3% | -12.7% |
| 11/2/2020 | -1.2% | -5.1% | 2.9% |
| 8/3/2020 | -3.9% | -5.1% | 115.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 14 | 15 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 6.6% | 13.0% |
| Median Negative | -5.2% | -5.6% | -10.0% |
| Max Positive | 14.7% | 11.3% | 115.5% |
| Max Negative | -31.1% | -30.3% | -26.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/22/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/24/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/28/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/29/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 388.00 Mil | 395.50 Mil | 403.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | 1.19 Bil | 1.21 Bil | 1.23 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.21 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 315.00 Mil | 327.50 Mil | 340.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 327.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Depreciation and amortization | 85.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 SG&A | 0.18 | ||||||
| 2026 Interest expense | 8.00 Mil | 9.00 Mil | 10.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Effective tax rate | 25.5% | 26.25% | 27.0% | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 100.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.19 Bil | 1.21 Bil | 1.23 Bil | 4.5% | Higher New | Actual: 1.16 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 315.00 Mil | 327.50 Mil | 340.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 150.00 Mil | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 140.00 Mil | 145.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Revenue | 1.15 Bil | 1.16 Bil | 1.16 Bil | ||||
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 28.0% | 28.25% | 28.5% | -2.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 31.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 SG&A Spending | 0.18 | ||||||
| 2026 Gross Margin Change | -2.5% | -2.5% | |||||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/6/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rudolph, Jacob T | SVP, CHRO | Direct | Sell | 6262026 | 50.00 | 1,400 | 70,000 | 1,831,550 | Form |
| 2 | Rose, B Andrew | Direct | Buy | 3032026 | 40.69 | 12,008 | 488,582 | 577,079 | Form | |
| 3 | Rose, B Andrew | Direct | Buy | 3032026 | 40.26 | 372 | 14,977 | 87,569 | Form | |
| 4 | Gandhi, Prithvi | SVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 11172025 | 31.92 | 15,000 | 478,840 | 978,878 | Form |
| 5 | Rudolph, Jacob T | SVP, CHRO | Direct | Buy | 10142025 | 43.92 | 59 | 2,591 | 1,214,476 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rudolph, Jacob T | SVP, CHRO | Direct | Sell | 6262026 | 50.00 | 1,400 | 70,000 | 1,831,550 | Form |
| 2 | Rose, B Andrew | Direct | Buy | 3032026 | 40.69 | 12,008 | 488,582 | 577,079 | Form | |
| 3 | Rose, B Andrew | Direct | Buy | 3032026 | 40.26 | 372 | 14,977 | 87,569 | Form | |
| 4 | Gandhi, Prithvi | SVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 11172025 | 31.92 | 15,000 | 478,840 | 978,878 | Form |
| 5 | Rudolph, Jacob T | SVP, CHRO | Direct | Buy | 10142025 | 43.92 | 59 | 2,591 | 1,214,476 | Form |
| 6 | Fernandez, Amy M | SVP, CLO and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 8072025 | 64.18 | 1,538 | 98,711 | 1,473,163 | Form |
| 7 | Rudolph, Jacob T | SVP, CHRO | Direct | Buy | 7072025 | 46.22 | 66 | 3,051 | 1,275,348 | Form |
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Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Building Products Resources |
| Building Design+Construction |
| Construction Dive |
| Architectural Record |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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