Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -101%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -101%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TREX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The Trex (TREX) stock experienced a significant decline of approximately 43.4% in the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. Here are the key points explaining this movement:

1. Disappointing Q3 2025 Financial Results and Reduced Full-Year Guidance: Trex reported its Third Quarter 2025 financial results on November 4, 2025, with net sales of $285 million, missing analysts' consensus estimates and falling 5% below the midpoint of its own guidance. The company also reported a 12% decline in net income per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the prior year. Additionally, management revised its full-year 2025 sales growth guidance down to roughly 0% compared to 2024, expecting net sales to range from $1.15 billion to $1.16 billion. This news led to a significant drop in the stock price on November 5, 2025.

2. Muted Fourth Quarter 2025 Outlook and Channel Destocking: Following the disappointing Q3 results, Trex indicated expectations for a "muted" fourth quarter, which is also a seasonally slower period. The company specifically anticipated that its pro channel partners would lower their inventories through the end of the year. This channel destocking was a key factor contributing to the downgraded sales expectations for the fourth quarter, with management projecting revenue between $140 million and $150 million, a 13% decrease from the previous year.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TREX Return273%61%-69%96%-17%-50%55%
Peers Return13%52%-22%41%30%0%145%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TREX Win Rate67%58%33%58%50%20% 
Peers Win Rate68%78%40%53%65%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TREX Max Drawdown-30%-2%-70%0%-29%-56% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-4%-43%-7%-10%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LEGH, TT, JCI, CARR, LII. See TREX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTREXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-71.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven251.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven73.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven49 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven66.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven259 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven398.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1179 days1480 days

Compare to LEGH, TT, JCI, CARR, LII


In The Past

Trex's stock fell -71.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/10/2021. A -71.6% loss requires a 251.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Trex (TREX)

Better Bets than Trex (TREX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TREX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
TREX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025TREXTrexDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%-8.6%
TREX_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022TREXTrexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-21.5%20.5%-26.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
TREX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025TREXTrexDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%-8.6%
TREX_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022TREXTrexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-21.5%20.5%-26.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Trex

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TREXLEGHTTJCICARRLIIMedian
NameTrex Legacy H.Trane Te.Johnson .Carrier .Lennox I. 
Mkt Price34.8720.11409.07114.2254.62500.0184.42
Mkt Cap3.70.591.174.946.417.632.0
Rev LTM1,18118021,05123,40222,0585,34513,198
Op Inc LTM270543,9562,8982,2321,0621,647
FCF LTM10182,5332,8681,127534831
FCF 3Y Avg4652,4312,0141,4815431,012
CFO LTM284262,9363,3671,6056841,145
CFO 3Y Avg266132,7772,4481,9227221,322

Growth & Margins

TREXLEGHTTJCICARRLIIMedian
NameTrex Legacy H.Trane Te.Johnson .Carrier .Lennox I. 
Rev Chg LTM0.1%10.2%8.6%22.2%1.9%3.8%6.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.7%-6.7%10.8%-0.9%3.3%5.2%1.3%
Rev Chg Q22.1%-8.6%5.5%2.6%-6.8%-4.8%-1.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.6%-2.1%1.5%0.7%-1.8%-1.3%-0.3%
Op Mgn LTM22.9%29.7%18.8%12.4%10.1%19.9%19.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg25.1%32.8%17.4%11.1%10.0%18.3%17.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%-2.4%0.4%-1.7%-0.8%0.3%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM24.1%14.4%13.9%14.4%7.3%12.8%14.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg23.1%7.7%14.4%11.3%9.6%14.0%12.6%
FCF/Rev LTM0.9%10.2%12.0%12.3%5.1%10.0%10.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.1%3.5%12.6%9.3%7.5%10.5%8.4%

Valuation

TREXLEGHTTJCICARRLIIMedian
NameTrex Legacy H.Trane Te.Johnson .Carrier .Lennox I. 
Mkt Cap3.70.591.174.946.417.632.0
P/S4.73.64.53.02.33.53.6
P/EBIT20.511.224.027.117.217.419.0
P/E28.013.632.031.012.722.125.0
P/CFO19.525.232.020.631.627.226.2
Total Yield3.6%7.3%4.0%4.6%9.3%5.0%4.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.9%1.4%1.5%0.4%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.7%0.5%3.4%3.7%2.9%3.0%3.0%
D/E0.00.00.00.10.20.10.1
Net D/E0.0-0.00.00.10.20.10.1

Returns

TREXLEGHTTJCICARRLIIMedian
NameTrex Legacy H.Trane Te.Johnson .Carrier .Lennox I. 
1M Rtn-27.3%-9.4%-8.3%0.9%-5.6%1.2%-7.0%
3M Rtn-41.6%-27.0%0.4%8.8%-12.2%-8.0%-10.1%
6M Rtn-38.4%-10.6%-5.0%12.4%-23.0%-10.5%-10.6%
12M Rtn-54.8%-22.5%0.1%40.8%-26.8%-24.0%-23.3%
3Y Rtn-22.8%13.0%136.2%78.6%27.5%94.2%53.1%
1M Excs Rtn-27.2%-9.3%-8.3%1.0%-5.6%1.3%-6.9%
3M Excs Rtn-49.3%-34.0%-6.1%1.7%-19.1%-16.1%-17.6%
6M Excs Rtn-53.1%-25.3%-19.7%-2.3%-37.7%-25.2%-25.3%
12M Excs Rtn-67.1%-36.7%-14.4%24.9%-42.0%-37.9%-37.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-91.6%-57.2%70.5%12.0%-41.3%25.9%-14.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Trex Residential1,0951,0601,139828694
Trex Commercial 47585351
Total1,0951,1061,197881745


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Trex Residential205201247171143
Trex Commercial -16-3842
Total205185209176145


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Trex Residential933934881677504
Trex Commercial 0399488
Total933934920770592


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,936,566
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-12.4%
Average Daily Volume6,341,614
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.09
Basic Shares Quantity107,244,573
Short % of Basic Shares6.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024224202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241028202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231030202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023731202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221031202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Gandhi PrithviSVP, Chief Financial Officer11172025Buy31.9215,000478,840978,878Form