Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -97%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
  Key risks
TREX key risks include [1] margin pressure from volatile raw material costs for recycled plastics and wood fibers.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -97%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7%
5 Key risks
TREX key risks include [1] margin pressure from volatile raw material costs for recycled plastics and wood fibers.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TREX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate -43.4% movement in Trex (TREX) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Trex reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 4 and 5, 2025, which significantly missed Wall Street's expectations for both net sales and adjusted earnings per share. The company announced net sales of $285.3 million against an estimated $301.7 million, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.51, falling short of the projected $0.57. This led to an immediate sharp decline in the stock price, with shares plunging over 27% on November 5, 2025.

2. Weak Fourth Quarter 2025 Guidance and Reduced Full-Year Outlook: Concurrent with the Q3 earnings, Trex management issued a significantly lower forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting sales between $140 million and $150 million, which was substantially below analyst estimates of approximately $199 million. Furthermore, the company revised its full-year 2025 sales growth guidance down to roughly 0% compared to 2024, a notable reduction from earlier projections of 5%-7% growth. This downward revision signaled ongoing challenges and heightened investor concern.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TREX Return273%61%-69%96%-17%-49%55%
Peers Return25%47%-25%48%-9%-20%48%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TREX Win Rate67%58%33%58%50%17% 
Peers Win Rate71%54%38%46%46%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TREX Max Drawdown-30%-2%-70%0%-29%-56% 
Peers Max Drawdown-41%-3%-39%-3%-15%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FBIN, UFPI. See TREX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTREXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-71.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven251.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven73.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven49 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven66.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven259 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven398.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,179 days1,480 days

Compare to LEGH, TT, JCI, CARR, LII


In The Past

Trex's stock fell -71.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/10/2021. A -71.6% loss requires a 251.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Trex (TREX)

Better Bets than Trex (TREX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TREX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.6%5.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%
TREX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025TREXTrexDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.7%5.7%-8.6%
TREX_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022TREXTrexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-21.5%20.5%-26.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.6%5.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%
TREX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025TREXTrexDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.7%5.7%-8.6%
TREX_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022TREXTrexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-21.5%20.5%-26.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Trex

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TREXFBINUFPIMedian
NameTrex Fortune .UFP Indu. 
Mkt Price34.8651.7993.4451.79
Mkt Cap3.76.25.35.3
Rev LTM1,1814,4906,4534,490
Op Inc LTM270663396396
FCF LTM10395272272
FCF 3Y Avg46554541541
CFO LTM284543544543
CFO 3Y Avg266757767757

Growth & Margins

TREXFBINUFPIMedian
NameTrex Fortune .UFP Indu. 
Rev Chg LTM0.1%-3.8%-3.9%-3.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.7%22.7%-12.5%-0.7%
Rev Chg Q22.1%-0.5%-5.4%-0.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.6%-0.1%-1.4%-0.1%
Op Mgn LTM22.9%14.8%6.1%14.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg25.1%15.4%7.8%15.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%-0.6%-0.3%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM24.1%12.1%8.4%12.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg23.1%16.5%10.9%16.5%
FCF/Rev LTM0.9%8.8%4.2%4.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.1%12.1%7.6%7.6%

Valuation

TREXFBINUFPIMedian
NameTrex Fortune .UFP Indu. 
Mkt Cap3.76.25.35.3
P/S4.71.40.81.4
P/EBIT20.511.412.112.1
P/E28.019.616.319.6
P/CFO19.511.89.711.8
Total Yield3.6%7.0%7.7%7.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.9%1.6%1.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.7%6.9%8.5%6.9%
D/E0.00.40.10.1
Net D/E0.00.4-0.10.0

Returns

TREXFBINUFPIMedian
NameTrex Fortune .UFP Indu. 
1M Rtn11.3%12.4%6.1%11.3%
3M Rtn-35.3%-8.5%-3.4%-8.5%
6M Rtn-33.7%5.5%-1.0%-1.0%
12M Rtn-54.6%-28.5%-22.3%-28.5%
3Y Rtn-20.4%-5.1%21.9%-5.1%
1M Excs Rtn10.6%11.7%5.4%10.6%
3M Excs Rtn-36.9%-10.8%-5.8%-10.8%
6M Excs Rtn-46.1%-6.9%-13.4%-13.4%
12M Excs Rtn-65.8%-41.5%-36.4%-41.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-90.9%-67.5%-50.1%-67.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Trex Residential1,0951,0601,139828694
Trex Commercial 47585351
Total1,0951,1061,197881745


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Trex Residential205201247171143
Trex Commercial -16-3842
Total205185209176145


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Trex Residential933934881677504
Trex Commercial 0399488
Total933934920770592


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,984,158
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520250.7%
Average Daily Volume2,651,421
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.63
Basic Shares Quantity107,244,573
Short % of Basic Shares6.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-31.1%-30.3%-26.7%
8/4/20252.3%-8.8%-7.1%
5/8/2025-0.9%3.0%-2.1%
2/24/20251.2%-3.4%0.6%
10/28/20246.2%6.1%13.0%
8/6/2024-21.5%-19.8%-20.5%
5/9/2024-6.5%-5.1%-12.8%
2/26/2024-1.8%1.2%3.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111112
# Negative131312
Median Positive5.3%6.6%13.2%
Median Negative-6.5%-6.3%-12.7%
Max Positive14.7%17.5%115.5%
Max Negative-31.1%-30.3%-26.7%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024224202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241028202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231030202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023731202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221031202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Gandhi PrithviSVP, Chief Financial Officer11172025Buy31.9215,000478,840978,878Form