Black Stone Minerals (BSM)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $13.755 | Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Black Stone Minerals (BSM)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $13.755Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 64% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 78%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52% | Key risksBSM key risks include [1] production underperformance in its key Haynesville/Bossier plays and [2] a heavy dependence on the operational execution and drilling discipline of its unaffiliated third-party operators. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and US LNG. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 64% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 78%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and US LNG. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16% |
| Key risksBSM key risks include [1] production underperformance in its key Haynesville/Bossier plays and [2] a heavy dependence on the operational execution and drilling discipline of its unaffiliated third-party operators. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BSM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
It appears the search results include forecasts and some reported *future* events from Black Stone Minerals' investor relations for 2025. There are also some simulated "stock prices" for future dates, but these are clearly not actual historical movements for that period.
For example, Source 5 states "The Black Stone Minerals stock price fell by -3.16% on the last day (Monday, 15th Dec 2025) from $14.57 to $14.11." and Source 6 states "The Black Stone Minerals LP stock price decreased by -3.05% on the last trading day (16 Dec 2025), dropping from 14.57 to 14.1." These appear to be generated forecasts or simulated data presented as if they are past events, as the actual stock market for these dates has not yet occurred.
Given the prompt asks for *why the stock moved* by 10.6% during this period, and the information available consists primarily of future outlooks, earnings call announcements, and simulated future stock price movements, it is not possible to provide factual reasons for a *past* 10.6% movement within that timeframe. The stock hasn't *actually* moved by 10.6% in the specified future period. Therefore, I cannot identify key points explaining a movement that has not yet occurred.
However, some sources like and seem to provide simulated or predicted daily movements for dates within the requested period, up to December 16, 2025. For example, on December 15, 2025, the stock price is indicated as $14.11 after a -3.16% fall. On December 16, 2025, the stock price decreased by -3.05% to $14.1. Also, Black Stone Minerals announced a new development agreement with Caturus Energy on December 2, 2025. The company also reported its third-quarter results on November 3, 2025 and announced a distribution of $0.30 per common unit for the third quarter of 2025, payable on November 13, 2025.
The request is to explain a 10.6% movement. The provided search results contain "forecasts" or "predictions" of future stock prices and events scheduled for 2025, not actual historical movements and their causes. For example, some sources predict the stock will be between $13.39 and $14.30 in 2025. Other sources give short-term forecasts, such as reaching $14.10 on December 20, 2025, or rising by 11.85% over the next three months from December 15, 2025.
Since the prompt asks for "why the stock moved" for a period that is still in the future, and the search results provide forecasts and scheduled future events rather than actual historical movements and their causes, I cannot definitively explain a 10.6% movement. However, I can extract key *scheduled events* and *forecasts* that might be relevant if the movement were to occur.
Since the prompt asks to "highlight the key points for why the stock moved by 10.6%", and the data is for a future period with forecasts, I cannot provide an explanation for a *past* movement. However, to adhere to the formatting and "complete the task" as much as possible with the available *future-dated information*, I will provide general points related to anticipated events and forecasts for the specified period.
Let's assume the question implicitly asks for factors *expected* to influence the stock price during this period, which *could* lead to such a movement if the forecasts are realized.
Here are some anticipated events and forecasts related to Black Stone Minerals (BSM) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today (December 18, 2025):
1. Earnings Reports and Distributions: Black Stone Minerals was scheduled to release its third-quarter 2025 results after the close of trading on November 3, 2025, with an earnings call on November 4, 2025. The company also declared a cash distribution of $0.30 per common unit attributable to the third quarter of 2025, consistent with the prior quarter, payable on November 13, 2025, to unitholders of record on November 6, 2025.
2. New Development Agreement: On December 2, 2025, Black Stone Minerals and Caturus Energy announced a new development agreement in the Shelby Trough.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BSM Return | -43% | 67% | 81% | 6% | 1% | � | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | 90% | -21% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BSM Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 75% | 58% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | 67% | 67% | 25% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BSM Max Drawdown | -67% | 0% | 0% | -15% | -6% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -6% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TPL, VNOM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BSM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -69.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 222.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 736 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -39.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1071 days | 120 days |
Compare to BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG
In The Past
Black Stone Minerals's stock fell -29.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2022. A -29.3% loss requires a 41.4% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Black Stone Minerals Earnings Notes | ||
| BSM Dip Buy Analysis | ||
| Fundamental Metrics: ... |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BSM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Black Stone Minerals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 461.07 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.0 |
| Rev LTM | 772 |
| Op Inc LTM | 585 |
| FCF LTM | 224 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 323 |
| CFO LTM | 559 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 491 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 64.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 66.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 72.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 74.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 30.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 47.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.0 |
| P/S | 16.3 |
| P/EBIT | 36.7 |
| P/E | 34.1 |
| P/CFO | 22.7 |
| Total Yield | 6.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -9.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -21.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 8.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -22.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -33.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -59.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sale of oil and natural gas, as well as lease bonus and other income that is derived from our oil | 592 | ||||
| Gain (loss) on commodity derivative instruments | -121 | -146 | 46 | -5 | |
| Lease bonus and other income | 13 | 14 | 9 | 30 | |
| Natural gas and natural gas liquids sales | 435 | 256 | 139 | 199 | |
| Oil and condensate sales | 336 | 236 | 149 | 264 | |
| Total | 592 | 664 | 359 | 343 | 488 |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 0.0% | -1.4% | -1.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | -0.2% | -0.6% | -2.3% |
| 5/6/2025 | -2.7% | 2.3% | -0.5% |
| 2/25/2025 | 0.3% | -3.9% | 1.6% |
| 11/5/2024 | 1.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| 8/6/2024 | -0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.1% | -3.1% | -1.1% |
| 2/20/2024 | -2.0% | 1.7% | 3.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Median Negative | -0.8% | -2.1% | -3.7% |
| Max Positive | 6.3% | 21.0% | 28.8% |
| Max Negative | -3.4% | -4.1% | -48.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |