Tearsheet

Unusual Machines (UMAC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $8.83 | Market Cap: $264.9 Mil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Unusual Machines (UMAC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $8.83
Market Cap: $264.9 Mil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -18 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -219%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 133%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 55x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Industrial Robotics, Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -153%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -168%
3   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 275%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 131%
6   Key risks
UMAC key risks include [1] a failure to achieve sustained profitability due to its capital-intensive strategic shift and continued cash burn, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 133%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Industrial Robotics, Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more.
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -18 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -219%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 55x
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -153%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -168%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 275%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12%
9 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 131%
10 Key risks
UMAC key risks include [1] a failure to achieve sustained profitability due to its capital-intensive strategic shift and continued cash burn, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

UMAC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -9.5% stock movement for Unusual Machines (UMAC) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Missed Q2 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast.
Unusual Machines reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results on August 14, 2025, with revenue increasing by 51% year-over-year to $2.12 million. However, the company posted an EPS of -$0.32, significantly missing the forecasted -$0.15. This earnings miss led to an immediate stock decline of 5.73% in after-hours trading, with a further 4.39% drop in premarket activity.

2. Significant Share Dilution from Public Offerings.
The company continued to dilute shares, entering a sales agreement in August 2025 to issue and sell up to $300 million through an "at-the-market" offering. This was partially utilized in October 2025, with 4,666,600 shares sold for $72.1 million. This followed a $48.5 million registered direct offering in July 2025, priced at a notable discount of $9.70 per share compared to the market value of $12.12, which caused an 18% stock fall.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
UMAC Return-45%
Peers Return275%28%-45%-14%251%44%1051%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UMAC Win Rate40%42% 
Peers Win Rate32%30%40%42%38%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UMAC Max Drawdown-72% 
Peers Max Drawdown-38%-29%-60%-47%-61%-60% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RCAT, AVAV, DPRO, ONDS, UAVS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

UMAC has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-34.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven278 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven79 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven31.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven105 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-53.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven115.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,183 days1,480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Unusual Machines (UMAC)

Better Bets than Unusual Machines (UMAC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to UMAC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.1%10.1%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.1%9.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.1%10.1%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.1%9.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Unusual Machines

Peers to compare with:

Financials

UMACRCATAVAVDPROONDSUAVSMedian
NameUnusual .Red Cat AeroViro.DraganflyOndas AgEagle . 
Mkt Price8.696.89229.106.087.370.937.13
Mkt Cap0.31.015.70.12.00.10.6
Rev LTM8161,3707251314
Op Inc LTM-18-52-70-17-44-9-31
FCF LTM-14-64-254-17-35-10-26
FCF 3Y Avg-7-36-92-17-36-10-26
CFO LTM-13-63-195-16-34-10-25
CFO 3Y Avg-6-35-58-16-35-10-25

Growth & Margins

UMACRCATAVAVDPROONDSUAVSMedian
NameUnusual .Red Cat AeroViro.DraganflyOndas AgEagle . 
Rev Chg LTM133.2%-15.0%79.9%26.7%208.4%-6.3%53.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-76.6%48.0%-0.4%195.1%-12.1%48.0%
Rev Chg Q39.4%247.4%150.7%14.4%582.0%-40.0%95.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM7.8%75.0%26.2%3.8%53.4%-9.4%17.0%
Op Mgn LTM-219.4%-323.0%-5.1%-226.9%-176.1%-72.2%-197.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--307.5%2.9%-292.1%-338.8%-89.9%-292.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-28.3%134.2%-2.1%-8.8%51.7%-16.1%-5.4%
CFO/Rev LTM-152.6%-391.8%-14.2%-220.2%-137.9%-77.9%-145.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--331.9%-4.2%-240.3%-294.4%-70.5%-240.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-168.1%-399.7%-18.5%-227.2%-140.2%-78.4%-154.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--347.3%-7.6%-245.6%-305.9%-73.3%-245.6%

Valuation

UMACRCATAVAVDPROONDSUAVSMedian
NameUnusual .Red Cat AeroViro.DraganflyOndas AgEagle . 
Mkt Cap0.31.015.70.12.00.10.6
P/S54.664.311.416.881.15.135.7
P/EBIT-12.7---7.4---10.0
P/E-12.7-15.7-225.1-6.9-47.0-3.4-14.2
P/CFO-35.8-16.4-80.4-7.6-58.8-6.6-26.1
Total Yield-7.9%-6.4%-0.4%-14.5%-2.1%-29.6%-7.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg----55.4%---55.4%
D/E0.0--0.0--0.0
Net D/E-0.2---0.6---0.4

Returns

UMACRCATAVAVDPROONDSUAVSMedian
NameUnusual .Red Cat AeroViro.DraganflyOndas AgEagle . 
1M Rtn1.3%1.8%-19.2%-5.4%17.8%-18.3%-2.1%
3M Rtn-24.0%-38.9%-15.8%18.3%20.8%-48.3%-19.9%
6M Rtn-3.6%-5.6%20.6%162.1%375.5%-26.1%8.5%
12M Rtn-22.6%-28.7%39.7%38.2%341.3%-83.5%7.8%
3Y Rtn-575.5%179.9%-99.0%298.4%-99.8%179.9%
1M Excs Rtn0.5%1.0%-20.0%-6.2%17.1%-19.1%-2.8%
3M Excs Rtn-23.1%-32.7%-20.5%10.0%10.3%-50.5%-21.8%
6M Excs Rtn-15.9%-17.9%8.2%149.7%363.1%-38.5%-3.9%
12M Excs Rtn-32.8%-27.4%35.3%28.4%415.4%-93.1%0.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-410.6%92.8%-167.4%171.2%-168.2%92.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023
Single Segment00
Total00


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023
Single Segment23
Total23


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,109,413
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520253.1%
Average Daily Volume1,978,972
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.58
Basic Shares Quantity30,002,179
Short % of Basic Shares17.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/14/20250.2%6.6%11.1%
11/14/2024-12.1%18.3%306.5%
8/14/2024-2.9%5.9%0.6%
5/15/20241.8%29.1%34.5%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive244
# Negative200
Median Positive1.0%12.5%22.8%
Median Negative-7.5%  
Max Positive1.8%29.1%306.5%
Max Negative-12.1%  

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024327202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241114202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024814202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024515202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023322202410-K 12/31/2023
63020239192023S-1/A 6/30/2023
33120236142023S-1/A 3/31/2023
123120222152024424B1 12/31/2022

Industry Resources

Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources
The Verge
TechRadar
Tom’s Hardware
PCMag
CNET