Ondas (ONDS)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $9.065 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Ondas (ONDS)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $9.065Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -228% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 75% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 482%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 1056% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -200%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -202% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Network Equipment, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 146% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 56% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 75% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Network Equipment, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -228% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 482%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 1056% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -200%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -202% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 146% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 56% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ONDS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Ondas (ONDS) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Upgraded Guidance.
Ondas reported record Q3 2025 revenue of $10.1 million, marking a 582% increase year-over-year and approximately 60% quarter-over-quarter growth. Following this performance, the company raised its full-year 2025 revenue target to at least $36 million from a previous $25 million and introduced a preliminary 2026 revenue target of at least $110 million. The stock experienced a positive response, jumping around 19% after the earnings announcement.
2. Significant Capital Raise and Enhanced Balance Sheet.
On October 7, 2025, Ondas closed a $425 million offering, yielding estimated net proceeds of about $407.2 million. This capital infusion significantly strengthened the company's financial position, with a pro-forma cash balance reaching approximately $840.4 million by the end of the quarter, intended to fuel strategic growth and acquisitions.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ONDS Return | 55% | -28% | -76% | -4% | 67% | 259% | 53% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 41% | -13% | 6% | 11% | 73% | 170% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ONDS Win Rate | 8% | 33% | 42% | 33% | 25% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 52% | 28% | 40% | 42% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ONDS Max Drawdown | -50% | -39% | -78% | -79% | -64% | -74% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -3% | -24% | -27% | -26% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VSAT, ADTN, FIEE, CSCO, ANET.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ONDS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4483.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 26 days | 120 days |
Compare to VSAT, ADTN, FIEE, CSCO, ANET
In The Past
Ondas's stock fell -97.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2021. A -97.8% loss requires a 4483.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Is Ondas Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Ondas Surges 25% On Sentrycs Deal. What Next For The Stock? | November 20th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ONDS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ondas
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 22.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| Rev LTM | 2,800 |
| Op Inc LTM | -19 |
| FCF LTM | 57 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -4 |
| CFO LTM | 553 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 388 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -3.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -9.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| P/EBIT | -7.8 |
| P/E | -3.2 |
| P/CFO | 8.3 |
| Total Yield | -11.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 35.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 33.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 72.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 19.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 20.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 2.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS) | 9 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Ondas Networks | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Product revenue | 0 | ||||
| Service revenue | 0 | ||||
| Total | 16 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate operating expenses | -5 | ||||
| Ondas Networks | -13 | ||||
| Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS) | -22 | ||||
| Total | -40 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS) | 73 | 64 | 72 | ||
| Ondas Networks | 19 | 34 | 45 | 29 | |
| Total | 92 | 98 | 117 | 29 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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