AeroVironment (AVAV)
Market Price (12/14/2025): $239.56 | Market Cap: $11.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
AeroVironment (AVAV)
Market Price (12/14/2025): $239.56Market Cap: $11.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 80% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -70 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Advanced Air Mobility, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 180% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 80% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Advanced Air Mobility, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -70 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.1% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 180% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AVAV Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining AeroVironment (AVAV) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 15, 2025:
1. AeroVironment reported a significant miss on its adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) for Q2 Fiscal Year 2026, reporting $0.44 compared to analyst expectations of $0.79.
2. The company faced profitability challenges and margin pressure, with gross and adjusted gross margins falling due to an unfavorable product mix and the transition to a new Oracle ERP cloud solution.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AVAV Return | 41% | -29% | 38% | 47% | 22% | 62% | 305% |
| Peers Return | 6% | 17% | 10% | 16% | 16% | 58% | 188% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AVAV Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 52% | 53% | 52% | 55% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AVAV Max Drawdown | -24% | -33% | -13% | -4% | -6% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -12% | -17% | -17% | -8% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KTOS, NOC, LMT, RTX, TXT. See AVAV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AVAV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 156.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 672 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -35.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 83 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -58.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 506 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1832 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AIR, TG, TWIN, ASPS, APEX
In The Past
AeroVironment's stock fell -61.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -61.0% loss requires a 156.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AVAV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.9% | 22.9% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| 02282021 | AVAV | AeroVironment | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -6.0% | -35.5% | -51.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.9% | 22.9% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| 02282021 | AVAV | AeroVironment | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -6.0% | -35.5% | -51.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for AeroVironment
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 208.83 |
| Mkt Cap | 48.6 |
| Rev LTM | 27,582 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,498 |
| FCF LTM | 1,264 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,449 |
| CFO LTM | 2,248 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,466 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 48.6 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 19.3 |
| P/E | 24.6 |
| P/CFO | 16.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 36.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 59.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 24.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/9/2025 | -12.9% | ||
| 9/9/2025 | 7.0% | 15.1% | 76.4% |
| 6/24/2025 | 21.6% | 30.6% | 41.2% |
| 3/4/2025 | -4.4% | -12.6% | -10.6% |
| 12/4/2024 | -15.9% | -21.6% | -16.8% |
| 9/4/2024 | -5.3% | -5.2% | 3.6% |
| 6/26/2024 | -7.7% | -11.7% | -9.8% |
| 3/4/2024 | 27.9% | 22.4% | 12.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 16 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -11.4% | -10.7% |
| Max Positive | 27.9% | 30.6% | 76.4% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -21.6% | -17.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12102025 | 10-Q 11/1/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9102025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6252025 | 10-K 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3052025 | 10-Q 1/25/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12052024 | 10-Q 10/26/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9052024 | 10-Q 7/27/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6272024 | 10-K 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3052024 | 10-Q 1/27/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12062023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9062023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6282023 | 10-K 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3062023 | 10-Q 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12072022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9082022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6292022 | 10-K 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3042022 | 10-Q 1/29/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |