AeroVironment (AVAV)
Market Price (6/1/2026): $203.94 | Market Cap: $10.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
AeroVironment (AVAV)
Market Price (6/1/2026): $203.94Market Cap: $10.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 117% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Advanced Air Mobility, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -95 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.9% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.1% Key risksAVAV key risks include [1] heavy dependence on government spending, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 117% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Advanced Air Mobility, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -95 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.9% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.1% |
| Key risksAVAV key risks include [1] heavy dependence on government spending, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 5/1/2026
AeroVironment (AVAV) stock has lost about 20% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. AeroVironment reported a significant Q3 FY2026 earnings miss and reduced its full-year guidance on March 10, 2026. The company posted an adjusted EPS of $0.64, missing the consensus estimate of $0.68 by $0.04. Quarterly revenue of $408.05 million fell short of analyst expectations of $487.94 million, resulting in a 15.68% revenue miss. Following this announcement, AeroVironment's stock declined 2.49% in aftermarket trading. The company also lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance.
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AeroVironment (AVAV) stock has lost about 20% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. AeroVironment reported a significant Q3 FY2026 earnings miss and reduced its full-year guidance on March 10, 2026. The company posted an adjusted EPS of $0.64, missing the consensus estimate of $0.68 by $0.04. Quarterly revenue of $408.05 million fell short of analyst expectations of $487.94 million, resulting in a 15.68% revenue miss. Following this announcement, AeroVironment's stock declined 2.49% in aftermarket trading. The company also lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.8% change in AVAV stock from 2/28/2026 to 5/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -30.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 5312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 252.25 | 207.24 | -17.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,370 | 1,610 | 17.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 9.2 | 6.4 | -30.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 50 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 5/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AVAV | -17.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.6% | 24.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | -2.0% | 18.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -25.8% change in AVAV stock from 11/30/2025 to 5/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -46.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 5312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 279.46 | 207.24 | -25.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,086 | 1,610 | 48.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 12.1 | 6.4 | -46.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 47 | 50 | -5.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -25.8% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 5/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AVAV | -25.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.3% | 29.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 13.4% | 24.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.4% change in AVAV stock from 5/31/2025 to 5/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 116.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 5312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 178.03 | 207.24 | 16.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 743 | 1,610 | 116.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.7 | 6.4 | -4.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 28 | 50 | -43.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.4% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 5/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AVAV | 16.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.8% | 28.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 22.9% | 25.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 121.9% change in AVAV stock from 5/31/2023 to 5/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 230.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 5312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 93.41 | 207.24 | 121.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 487 | 1,610 | 230.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.8 | 6.4 | 33.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 25 | 50 | -49.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 121.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 5/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AVAV | 121.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 88.1% | 29.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 86.9% | 30.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AVAV Return | -29% | 38% | 47% | 22% | 57% | -11% | 147% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 10% | 16% | 16% | 58% | -0% | 172% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AVAV Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 53% | 52% | 55% | 60% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AVAV Max Drawdown | -58% | -32% | -17% | -35% | -44% | -60% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -27% | -22% | -17% | -22% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: KTOS, NOC, LMT, RTX, TXT. See AVAV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AVAV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -14.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -25.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 755 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 260 days | 15 days |
In The Past
AeroVironment's stock fell -29.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 42.3% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | AVAV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -25.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 755 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 260 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -23.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
AeroVironment's stock fell -29.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 42.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About AeroVironment (AVAV)
AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, delivers, and supports a portfolio of robotic systems and related services for government agencies and businesses. It operates in two segments, Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and Medium Unmanned Aircraft Systems (MUAS). The company supplies UAS, tactical missile systems, and related services primarily to organizations within the U.S. Department of Defense and to international allied governments. It also designs, engineers, tools, and manufactures unmanned aerial and aircraft systems, including airborne platforms, payloads and payload integration, ground control systems, and ground support equipment and other items and services related to ISR services. In addition, the company offers small UAS products, including spare equipment, alternative payload modules, batteries, chargers, repair services, and customer support, as well as multiple aircraft, hand-held ground control system, and spare parts and accessories. Further, it develops high-altitude pseudo-satellite UAS systems. The company was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
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Lockheed Martin for military drones and unmanned systems.
Boeing for tactical unmanned aerial and missile systems.
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- Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS): Robotic aerial systems, including airborne platforms, payloads, ground control systems, and ground support equipment.
- Medium Unmanned Aircraft Systems (MUAS): A specific category of larger unmanned aircraft systems, forming one of the company's operating segments.
- Tactical Missile Systems: Guided weapon systems supplied primarily to organizations within the U.S. Department of Defense and international allied governments.
- High-Altitude Pseudo-Satellite (HAPS) UAS Systems: Advanced unmanned aerial systems designed for long-endurance flight at high altitudes.
- ISR Services: Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance services provided using their unmanned aircraft systems.
- UAS Support & Maintenance: Services including repairs, customer support, and the provision of spare parts, alternative payload modules, batteries, and chargers.
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AeroVironment (AVAV) sells primarily to government agencies and other businesses. Its major customers are:
- U.S. Department of Defense
- International allied governments
These entities are government organizations and do not have public company symbols.
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Here is the management team for AeroVironment (symbol: AVAV):Wahid Nawabi - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer
Wahid Nawabi has served as AeroVironment's CEO since May 2016 and as a director since 2016, ascending to Chairman in 2021. He joined the company in 2011 as Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Efficient Energy Systems division. Under his leadership, AeroVironment has achieved significant growth and driven the development of advanced unmanned aircraft systems, including the Switchblade and Puma AE drones. Prior to AeroVironment, Mr. Nawabi held leadership positions at APC by Schneider Electric, C&D Technologies, and Altergy, a proton-exchange membrane-based fuel cell manufacturer. He began his career at an MIT startup after earning a degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Maryland, College Park.
Kevin McDonnell - Chief Financial Officer
Kevin McDonnell was appointed as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of AeroVironment in February 2020. He brings over 30 years of experience in financial, IT, and HR leadership roles across technology, automotive, and health industries. Most notably, Mr. McDonnell served as CFO of JAMS, Inc., where he helped nearly double its revenue and more than double its EBITDA. He also held senior financial roles at Teradata Corporation during its high-growth phase, contributing to its revenue expansion from $3 million to $300 million and global presence. Additionally, he was instrumental as CFO of Digital Insight in significantly growing annual revenue, taking the company public, and leading three acquisitions. Mr. McDonnell earned his J.D. at Loyola Law School and a Bachelor of Arts degree in Business Administration from Loyola Marymount University.
Trace Stevenson - President, Autonomous Systems
Trace Stevenson serves as the President of Autonomous Systems at AeroVironment. Additional detailed background information was not readily available in the search results.
Mary Clum - President, Space, Cyber & Directed Energy
Mary Clum holds the position of President, Space, Cyber & Directed Energy at AeroVironment. Additional detailed background information was not readily available in the search results.
Church Hutton - Chief Growth Officer
Church Hutton assumed the role of Chief Growth Officer at AeroVironment in May 2025, where he leads the company's strategic expansion and long-term growth initiatives. Previously, he served as Senior Vice President of Government Relations, Marketing and Communications starting in 2024. Prior to joining AeroVironment, Mr. Hutton led all aspects of Mercury Systems' government relations program.
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Here are the key risks to AeroVironment's business:
- Dependence on Government Contracts and Unpredictable Revenue: AeroVironment's financial performance is heavily reliant on contracts with government agencies, particularly the U.S. Department of Defense and international allied governments. This reliance leads to "lumpy" revenue, meaning the timing and realization of revenue from these contracts can be unpredictable and fluctuate significantly, potentially causing the company to miss financial expectations in certain quarters. A prime example is the recent decision by the Pentagon to reopen bidding for the Satellite Communications Augmentation Resource (SCAR) program, which was initially awarded to AeroVironment's subsidiary BlueHalo. This change resulted in a $151 million goodwill impairment charge and a significant impact on projected revenue.
- Integration and Financial Risks from Acquisitions: The substantial acquisition of BlueHalo, while expanding AeroVironment's capabilities and market reach, has introduced considerable integration challenges and financial risks. The company faces the ongoing task of effectively merging distinct corporate cultures and technological infrastructures. Furthermore, the acquisition has led to increased financial burdens, including heavy non-cash amortization expenses and negative operating cash flow. AeroVironment also reported a significant goodwill impairment charge of $151.3 million, primarily due to a stop-work order on a key contract within the Space reporting unit, which is part of the BlueHalo acquisition, indicating potential weaknesses and challenges in the acquired operations.
- Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Operational Inefficiencies: AeroVironment is exposed to risks associated with its supply chain, particularly its reliance on specialized components like sensors and batteries, which makes it susceptible to global shortages and disruptions. The company has also experienced operational inefficiencies, reflected in an increase in its cost of sales, which has negatively impacted gross margins. These inefficiencies may partly stem from the complexities of integrating the BlueHalo acquisition and the ongoing efforts required to streamline its expanded operations for optimal performance.
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```htmlAeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) participates in several addressable markets for its main products and services, primarily across unmanned systems, tactical missile systems, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) services.
Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)
- AeroVironment's management estimates that the total addressable market (TAM) for uncrewed systems, which includes their unmanned aircraft systems, will reach $15 billion by fiscal year 2030, specifically across NATO and allied nations.
- Globally, the unmanned aircraft systems market was valued at approximately USD 26.89 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow to about USD 48.17 billion by 2030. Other estimates suggest the global Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) market size could reach USD 160.44 billion by 2034, or the global Unmanned Aircraft Systems Market size could reach $82.65 billion by 2030, and USD 189.57 million by 2034.
- For North America, the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) market was valued at USD 14.08 billion in 2025, with the U.S. market projected to reach USD 15.47 billion by 2026. The North America UAS Market was valued at USD 15.68 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 77.46 billion by 2034. Specifically, the U.S. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) market has been valued at USD 11 billion based on a five-year historical analysis.
Tactical Missile Systems
- AeroVironment's management projects the total addressable market (TAM) for offensive systems, including their tactical missile systems, to exceed $10 billion by fiscal year 2030 for NATO and allied nations.
- The global missiles market was valued at USD 64.26 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 122.48 billion by 2034. Another report estimates the global missile market size at USD 55.70 billion in 2023, projected to reach USD 93.56 billion by 2030.
- The North America missile market accounted for over 39.37% of the global revenue in 2023. The USA Rocket and Missile Market was valued at USD 16.25 billion in 2023.
Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Services
- The global Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Market size was valued at approximately USD 41.6 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 57 billion by 2030. Another forecast indicates growth from USD 44.4 billion in 2025 to USD 76.5 billion by 2035.
- North America holds a significant share, estimated at 55% of the global ISR market, and is expected to reach a value of over USD 26.5 billion by 2034. The U.S. C4ISR market, which includes ISR, was valued at USD 48.32 billion in 2024.
- For airborne ISR specifically, the global market size was USD 13.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 25.2 billion by 2032.
Space Technology
- AeroVironment's management estimates the total addressable market (TAM) for space technology to be $23 billion by fiscal year 2030, covering NATO and allied nations.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for AeroVironment (AVAV)
Over the next 2-3 years, AeroVironment (AVAV) is anticipated to experience revenue growth driven by several key factors:
- Growth in Loitering Munitions Systems (LMS) Sales: The Loitering Munitions Systems segment continues to be a significant growth driver for AeroVironment, with substantial year-over-year revenue increases and notable contract awards, including a nearly $1 billion five-year U.S. Army IDIQ sole-source contract in fiscal year 2025.
- Increased Demand for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Solutions: The Autonomous Systems segment, encompassing UAS platforms such as Puma, P550, and JUMP 20, is consistently cited as a strong growth driver, indicating sustained and increasing demand for these products.
- Expansion of Counter-UAS and Directed Energy Solutions: AeroVironment is poised for growth through its innovative counter-UAS and directed energy offerings, including the Titan family of counter-UAS solutions, the LOCAST directed energy product, and progress on the FE-1 program with the U.S. Army. These new products and solutions address evolving defense needs.
- Contribution from the BlueHalo Acquisition and Integration: The acquisition of BlueHalo in May 2025 significantly expanded AeroVironment's portfolio into Space, Cyber, and Directed Energy. This integration is expected to introduce new revenue streams and leverage synergies, with products like the Badger phased array solution also contributing to growth.
- Growth in International Markets: International sales are a crucial component of AeroVironment's revenue, accounting for 52% of total revenue in fiscal year 2025, with strong growth from non-Ukraine European customers. The company's robust demand and diversified product offerings are expected to continue driving international expansion.
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Share Repurchases
- AeroVironment has not reported significant dollar amounts of share repurchases over the last 3-5 years.
Share Issuance
- In July 2025, AeroVironment completed a public offering of 3,528,226 shares of common stock at $248.00 per share, generating approximately $875.0 million in gross proceeds.
- Concurrently in July 2025, the company completed a public offering of $747.5 million aggregate principal amount of 0% convertible senior notes due 2030, with aggregate gross proceeds from both offerings expected to be approximately $1.6 billion.
- The acquisition of BlueHalo in May 2025 for approximately $4.1 billion was an all-stock transaction, involving the issuance of 18,548,698 shares, representing about 39.5% of the pro forma combined company's fully diluted shares outstanding.
Outbound Investments
- In November 2024, AeroVironment acquired BlueHalo for approximately $4.1 billion in an all-stock transaction, significantly expanding its capabilities in space, cyber, and directed energy.
- In August 2023, AeroVironment acquired Tomahawk Robotics for $120 million.
- In January 2021, AeroVironment acquired Arcturus UAV for $405 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 are projected to be $60-$70 million, primarily to complete the Utah facility.
- Capital expenditures are expected to remain between 5% and 7% of revenue as the company expands manufacturing capacity to meet anticipated demand.
- In March 2026, AeroVironment announced plans to invest over $30 million to expand its manufacturing operations in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
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| 02282021 | AVAV | AeroVironment | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -6.0% | -35.5% | -51.1% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 193.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 48.1 |
| Rev LTM | 28,778 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,862 |
| FCF LTM | 2,082 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,551 |
| CFO LTM | 2,992 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,563 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 10.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 21.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 48.1 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 16.7 |
| P/EBIT | 15.5 |
| P/E | 21.5 |
| P/CFO | 14.3 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -18.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 21.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 75.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -28.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UnCrewed Systems (UxS) | 591 | |||
| Corporate | 209 | 207 | 229 | 302 |
| Loitering Munitions Systems (LMS) | 165 | 103 | 92 | 72 |
| MacCready Works (MW) | 51 | 40 | ||
| Unmanned systems (UMS) | 474 | |||
| All other | 87 | 40 | ||
| High Altitude Pseudo-Satellite Unmanned Aircraft Systems (HAPS) | 8 | |||
| Medium Unmanned Aircraft Systems (MUAS) | 388 | 402 | ||
| Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (SUAS) | 110 | 113 | ||
| Total | 1,016 | 825 | 914 | 929 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $207.24 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 10.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/23/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -49.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $185.45 | $262.37 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 11.7% | -21.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 71.6% | 73.2% |
| Downside Capture | 208.57 | 235.53 |
| Upside Capture | 59.02 | 181.30 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 22.6% | 28.7% |
AVAV Betas & Captures as of 5/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.87 | 1.12 | 1.23 | 1.95 | 1.76 | 1.15 |
| Up Beta | 3.33 | 0.66 | 1.73 | 1.11 | 0.70 | 1.07 |
| Down Beta | 4.07 | 1.62 | 0.08 | 2.04 | 1.91 | 0.80 |
| Up Capture | 189% | 106% | 56% | 177% | 275% | 294% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 22 | 30 | 58 | 123 | 372 |
| Down Capture | 292% | 179% | 191% | 225% | 170% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 19 | 33 | 66 | 126 | 377 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AVAV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | 20.3% | 73.0% | 0.56 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 23.1% | 15.3% | 1.15 | 25.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.3% | 11.8% | 1.94 | 28.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.5% | 26.7% | 1.17 | 9.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 39.6% | 18.8% | 1.63 | 3.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.5% | 13.1% | 0.64 | 4.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -32.0% | 41.6% | -0.82 | 29.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AVAV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | 14.4% | 55.5% | 0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.7% | 17.4% | 0.57 | 33.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.3% | 17.0% | 0.66 | 32.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | 11.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.2% | 19.4% | 0.41 | 12.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 23.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.5% | 54.6% | 0.46 | 17.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AVAV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | 22.6% | 51.8% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.2% | 20.0% | 0.63 | 37.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 37.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 16.0% | 0.69 | 8.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 17.9% | 0.33 | 16.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 26.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.9% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 16.2% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated N/A/N/A/N/A| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/10/2026 | -6.2% | 0.4% | -19.8% |
| 12/9/2025 | -12.9% | -16.6% | 29.7% |
| 9/9/2025 | 7.0% | 15.1% | 76.4% |
| 6/24/2025 | 21.6% | 30.6% | 41.2% |
| 3/4/2025 | -4.4% | -12.6% | -10.6% |
| 12/4/2024 | -15.9% | -21.6% | -16.8% |
| 9/4/2024 | -5.3% | -5.2% | 3.6% |
| 6/26/2024 | -7.7% | -11.7% | -9.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 14 | 16 |
| # Negative | 14 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 6.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.4% | -11.5% | -13.5% |
| Max Positive | 27.9% | 30.6% | 76.4% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -21.6% | -19.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 03/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/29/2022 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 3/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.85 Bil | 1.90 Bil | 1.95 Bil | -3.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.98 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Loss | -218.00 Mil | -209.50 Mil | -201.00 Mil | 516.2% | Lowered | Guidance: -34.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA | 265.00 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 285.00 Mil | -11.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 310.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Loss per diluted share | -4.44 | -4.27 | -4.1 | 523.4% | Lowered | Guidance: -0.69 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share | 2.75 | 2.92 | 3.1 | -15.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.48 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 12/9/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.95 Bil | 1.98 Bil | 2.00 Bil | 1.3% | Raised | Guidance: 1.95 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Loss | -38.00 Mil | -34.00 Mil | -30.00 Mil | -54.4% | Raised | Guidance: -74.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA | 300.00 Mil | 310.00 Mil | 320.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 310.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Loss per diluted share | -0.76 | -0.69 | -0.61 | -56.6% | Raised | Guidance: -1.58 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share | 3.4 | 3.48 | 3.55 | -4.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.65 for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/18/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Page, Stephen F | See Footnote | Sell | 5182026 | 162.31 | 250 | 40,578 | 7,993,930 | Form | |
| 2 | Page, Stephen F | See Footnote | Sell | 4202026 | 197.29 | 250 | 49,322 | 9,766,052 | Form | |
| 3 | Page, Stephen F | See Footnote | Sell | 3172026 | 212.52 | 250 | 53,130 | 10,573,083 | Form | |
| 4 | Shackley, Brian Charles | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 212.52 | 200 | 42,504 | 1,231,341 | Form |
| 5 | McDonnell, Kevin Patrick | CFO | See Footnote | Sell | 3112026 | 224.55 | 396 | 88,922 | 3,598,638 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Aerospace & Defense Resources |
| Defense News |
| FlightGlobal |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 5/31/2026