AeroVironment (AVAV)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $273.79 | Market Cap: $12.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
AeroVironment (AVAV)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $273.79Market Cap: $12.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -33 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Advanced Air Mobility, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 112% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Advanced Air Mobility, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -33 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.1% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 112% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AVAV Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining AeroVironment (AVAV) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: **1. Strong Fiscal Year 2026 First Quarter Earnings and Raised Guidance.** AeroVironment reported robust financial results for its fiscal year 2026 first quarter (ended August 2, 2025) in early September 2025. The company's reported revenue of $455.7 million surpassed consensus estimates, and it announced record revenue and backlog across its Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber, and Directed Energy segments. The funded backlog increased to $1.1 billion, a 47% rise quarter-over-quarter, with an unfunded backlog surging to $3.1 billion. **2. Significant $240 Million Laser Communication Order.** On September 8, 2025, AeroVironment secured a nearly $240 million order for its long-haul laser communications terminals from an undisclosed customer. These systems are slated for orbital deployment, marking a substantial milestone for the company's capabilities in the commercial space industry and enabling high-bandwidth data transfer across multiple orbits. **3. Award of a $499 Million Air Force Contract.** On October 1, 2025, AeroVironment was awarded a 10-year, $499 million indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) contract by the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory for the High-Performance Electromagnetic Spectrum Survivable Materials Advancement program. This contract included two initial task orders valued at $246 million, focusing on developing materials to protect warfighters from harmful electromagnetic radiation. **4. Selection for U.S. Army's Next-Generation C-UAS Missile.** AeroVironment was selected in October 2025 to deliver the U.S. Army's Next-Generation Counter-Unmanned Aircraft System Missile (NGCM). This involved a $95.9 million contract for its Freedom Eagle FE-1 platform under the Long-Range Kinetic Interceptor program, reinforcing the company's position in advanced counter-drone defense systems. **5. Expansion of AV_Halo Unified Software Platform.** On December 2, 2025, AeroVironment announced the expansion of its AV_Halo unified mission software platform with the introduction of AV_Halo CORTEX, an AI-driven intelligence fusion and analysis environment, and AV_Halo MENTOR, a warfighter readiness suite for virtual and augmented reality training. This strategic enhancement to its software capabilities led to a stock gain of 2.7% on the day of the announcement. Additionally, on December 3, 2025, it was announced that Hoverfly tethered unmanned aerial systems were natively supported and immediately deployable on the AV_Halo COMMAND platform, further integrating and expanding AeroVironment's autonomous systems ecosystem.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AVAV Return | 41% | -29% | 38% | 47% | 22% | 72% | 329% |
| Peers Return | -11% | 2% | -4% | -0% | -14% | 26% | -7% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AVAV Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 38% | 38% | 40% | 32% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AVAV Max Drawdown | -24% | -33% | -13% | -4% | -6% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -63% | -20% | -15% | -26% | -30% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AIR, TG, TWIN, ASPS, APEX. See AVAV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AVAV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 156.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 672 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -35.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 83 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -58.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 506 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1832 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AIR, TG, TWIN, ASPS, APEX
In The Past
AeroVironment's stock fell -61.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -61.0% loss requires a 156.5% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AVAV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 02282021 | AVAV | AeroVironment | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -6.0% | -35.5% | -51.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 02282021 | AVAV | AeroVironment | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -6.0% | -35.5% | -51.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for AeroVironment
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| Rev LTM | 693 |
| Op Inc LTM | 13 |
| FCF LTM | -6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -15 |
| CFO LTM | 10 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 17 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 17.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 24.9 |
| P/E | 85.0 |
| P/CFO | 7.6 |
| Total Yield | 0.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 34.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 29.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 45.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 20.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -10.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9102025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6252025 | 10-K 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3052025 | 10-Q 1/25/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12052024 | 10-Q 10/26/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9052024 | 10-Q 7/27/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6272024 | 10-K 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3052024 | 10-Q 1/27/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12062023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9062023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6282023 | 10-K 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3062023 | 10-Q 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12072022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9082022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6292022 | 10-K 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3042022 | 10-Q 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12082021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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