Tearsheet

AeroVironment (AVAV)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $273.79 | Market Cap: $12.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

AeroVironment (AVAV)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $273.79
Market Cap: $12.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -33 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.1%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Advanced Air Mobility, Show more.
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x
2  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%
3  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 112%
4  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Advanced Air Mobility, Show more.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -33 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.1%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 112%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AVAV Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining AeroVironment (AVAV) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: **1. Strong Fiscal Year 2026 First Quarter Earnings and Raised Guidance.** AeroVironment reported robust financial results for its fiscal year 2026 first quarter (ended August 2, 2025) in early September 2025. The company's reported revenue of $455.7 million surpassed consensus estimates, and it announced record revenue and backlog across its Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber, and Directed Energy segments. The funded backlog increased to $1.1 billion, a 47% rise quarter-over-quarter, with an unfunded backlog surging to $3.1 billion. **2. Significant $240 Million Laser Communication Order.** On September 8, 2025, AeroVironment secured a nearly $240 million order for its long-haul laser communications terminals from an undisclosed customer. These systems are slated for orbital deployment, marking a substantial milestone for the company's capabilities in the commercial space industry and enabling high-bandwidth data transfer across multiple orbits. **3. Award of a $499 Million Air Force Contract.** On October 1, 2025, AeroVironment was awarded a 10-year, $499 million indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) contract by the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory for the High-Performance Electromagnetic Spectrum Survivable Materials Advancement program. This contract included two initial task orders valued at $246 million, focusing on developing materials to protect warfighters from harmful electromagnetic radiation. **4. Selection for U.S. Army's Next-Generation C-UAS Missile.** AeroVironment was selected in October 2025 to deliver the U.S. Army's Next-Generation Counter-Unmanned Aircraft System Missile (NGCM). This involved a $95.9 million contract for its Freedom Eagle FE-1 platform under the Long-Range Kinetic Interceptor program, reinforcing the company's position in advanced counter-drone defense systems. **5. Expansion of AV_Halo Unified Software Platform.** On December 2, 2025, AeroVironment announced the expansion of its AV_Halo unified mission software platform with the introduction of AV_Halo CORTEX, an AI-driven intelligence fusion and analysis environment, and AV_Halo MENTOR, a warfighter readiness suite for virtual and augmented reality training. This strategic enhancement to its software capabilities led to a stock gain of 2.7% on the day of the announcement. Additionally, on December 3, 2025, it was announced that Hoverfly tethered unmanned aerial systems were natively supported and immediately deployable on the AV_Halo COMMAND platform, further integrating and expanding AeroVironment's autonomous systems ecosystem.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AVAV Return41%-29%38%47%22%72%329%
Peers Return-11%2%-4%-0%-14%26%-7%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AVAV Win Rate58%42%58%67%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate47%38%38%40%32%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AVAV Max Drawdown-24%-33%-13%-4%-6%-27% 
Peers Max Drawdown-63%-20%-15%-26%-30%-34% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AIR, TG, TWIN, ASPS, APEX. See AVAV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAVAVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-61.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven156.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven672 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-35.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven54.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven83 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-58.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven141.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven506 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-51.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven107.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1832 days1480 days

Compare to AIR, TG, TWIN, ASPS, APEX


In The Past

AeroVironment's stock fell -61.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -61.0% loss requires a 156.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About AeroVironment (AVAV)

Better Bets than AeroVironment (AVAV)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AVAV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
AVAV_2282021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%02282021AVAVAeroVironmentQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-6.0%-35.5%-51.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
AVAV_2282021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%02282021AVAVAeroVironmentQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-6.0%-35.5%-51.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for AeroVironment

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AVAVAIRTGTWINASPSAPEXMedian
NameAeroViro.AAR Tredegar Twin DiscAltisour.APEX Glo. 
Mkt Price271.7882.648.1615.828.54-15.82
Mkt Cap12.73.00.30.20.1-0.3
Rev LTM1,0862,858693348170-693
Op Inc LTM-3320121138-13
FCF LTM-203-26215-6--6
FCF 3Y Avg-68-15314-15--15
CFO LTM-153103721-6-10
CFO 3Y Avg-38172325-15-17

Growth & Margins

AVAVAIRTGTWINASPSAPEXMedian
NameAeroViro.AAR Tredegar Twin DiscAltisour.APEX Glo. 
Rev Chg LTM44.0%17.6%43.8%14.2%10.7%-17.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg34.0%16.4%-3.9%11.5%2.9%-11.5%
Rev Chg Q140.0%11.8%33.5%9.7%3.4%-11.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM32.3%2.8%7.6%2.1%0.8%-2.8%
Op Mgn LTM-3.1%7.0%3.0%3.6%4.9%-3.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.4%6.4%-0.3%4.6%-2.4%-2.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-10.3%0.6%1.6%0.6%-0.4%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM-14.1%0.3%5.3%6.0%-3.5%-0.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-3.3%0.7%3.6%8.0%-9.8%-0.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-18.7%-0.9%3.0%1.3%-3.5%--0.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-6.7%-0.6%-0.0%4.6%-9.8%--0.6%

Valuation

AVAVAIRTGTWINASPSAPEXMedian
NameAeroViro.AAR Tredegar Twin DiscAltisour.APEX Glo. 
Mkt Cap12.73.00.30.20.1-0.3
P/S12.30.90.40.60.8-0.8
P/EBIT-279.018.038.726.724.9-24.9
P/E-297.485.0-5.2552.91,755.1-85.0
P/CFO-87.1250.67.69.4-21.5-7.6
Total Yield-0.3%1.2%-19.3%1.4%0.1%-0.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%1.2%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.7%-0.7%1.3%7.5%-153.5%--0.7%
D/E0.10.40.20.31.5-0.3
Net D/E0.00.40.20.21.3-0.2

Returns

AVAVAIRTGTWINASPSAPEXMedian
NameAeroViro.AAR Tredegar Twin DiscAltisour.APEX Glo. 
1M Rtn-26.1%-3.6%24.2%0.1%-5.1%--3.6%
3M Rtn14.1%9.2%7.1%20.4%-24.4%-9.2%
6M Rtn48.1%26.5%-5.0%114.5%34.7%-34.7%
12M Rtn40.7%20.8%6.4%29.7%33.8%-29.7%
3Y Rtn193.2%73.8%-18.6%45.8%-92.8%-45.8%
1M Excs Rtn-26.1%-3.6%24.2%0.2%-5.1%--3.6%
3M Excs Rtn14.5%1.8%0.4%15.8%-27.9%-1.8%
6M Excs Rtn33.4%11.8%-19.7%99.8%20.0%-20.0%
12M Excs Rtn26.2%5.3%0.3%15.1%6.4%-6.4%
3Y Excs Rtn121.3%10.9%-88.0%-10.4%-166.0%--10.4%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,374,106
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-3.2%
Average Daily Volume797,846
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.98
Basic Shares Quantity46,882,350
Short % of Basic Shares5.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025910202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025625202510-K 4/30/2025
1312025305202510-Q 1/25/2025
103120241205202410-Q 10/26/2024
7312024905202410-Q 7/27/2024
4302024627202410-K 4/30/2024
1312024305202410-Q 1/27/2024
103120231206202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023906202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023628202310-K 4/30/2023
1312023306202310-Q 1/28/2023
103120221207202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022908202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022629202210-K 4/30/2022
1312022304202210-Q 1/29/2022
103120211208202110-Q 10/30/2021