Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more.
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -52 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -323%
1  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 64x
2  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%
3  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -392%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -400%
4  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 57%
5  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 123%
6  Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 22%
7  Short seller report
Fuzzy Panda Research report on 10/10/2025.
8  Key risks
RCAT key risks include [1] significant unprofitability and high cash burn, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more.
1 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -52 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -323%
2 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 64x
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -392%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -400%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 57%
6 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 123%
7 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 22%
8 Short seller report
Fuzzy Panda Research report on 10/10/2025.
9 Key risks
RCAT key risks include [1] significant unprofitability and high cash burn, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RCAT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Red Cat (RCAT) stock moved by -22.9% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: **1. Red Cat Holdings reported a significant miss in its Q3 2025 earnings, falling short of analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share.** The company announced Q3 2025 revenue of $9.6 million, substantially lower than the Wall Street consensus of $14.12 million. Furthermore, Red Cat's reported loss of 16 cents per share was nearly double the analyst consensus of a 9-cent loss.

**2. The company lowered its full-year 2025 revenue guidance, indicating a slower growth trajectory than previously anticipated.** Red Cat Holdings adjusted its full-year revenue guidance for 2025 to a range of $34.5 million to $37.5 million, primarily attributing this reduction to delays in revenue recognition.

**3. Red Cat experienced an increase in operating costs, leading to a widening net loss despite reported revenue growth.** The company's net loss worsened by 28.8% to $16 million in Q3 2025. General and administrative expenses also saw a substantial increase of 48% compared to the prior quarter, driven by expanded organizational infrastructure.

**4. The Q4 2025 revenue guidance provided by Red Cat Holdings disappointed analysts, signaling a slower-than-expected ramp-up in the upcoming quarter.** The company's forecast for Q4 2025 revenue, set between $20 million and $23 million, did not meet the analyst consensus of $26.4 million.

**5. Share dilution occurred as the weighted average number of shares outstanding increased considerably.** The number of shares outstanding grew by 31.5% year-over-year to 99.6 million, which can negatively impact the value of existing shares for investors.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RCAT Return44%32%-55%-6%1360%-43%570%
Peers Return28%-14%-17%29%24%115%212%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RCAT Win Rate17%33%50%50%75%50% 
Peers Win Rate35%32%33%45%42%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RCAT Max Drawdown-64%0%-63%-41%-34%-64% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-22%-29%-21%-18%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AVAV, KTOS, ONDS, AIRO, LHX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRCATS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-92.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1190.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven350 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-82.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven475.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven408 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-94.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1642.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,851 days120 days

Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC


In The Past

Red Cat's stock fell -92.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/16/2021. A -92.3% loss requires a 1190.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Red Cat (RCAT)

Better Bets than Red Cat (RCAT)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RCAT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.6%5.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.6%5.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Red Cat

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RCATAVAVKTOSONDSAIROLHXMedian
NameRed Cat AeroViro.Kratos D.Ondas AIRO L3Harris. 
Mkt Price6.89229.1069.777.377.41278.7238.59
Mkt Cap1.015.711.92.00.552.17.0
Rev LTM161,3701,285259421,373690
Op Inc LTM-52-7024-44-82,366-26
FCF LTM-64-254-93-35-2,164-64
FCF 3Y Avg-36-92-42-36-1,828-36
CFO LTM-63-195-9-34-2,507-34
CFO 3Y Avg-35-5822-35-2,208-35

Growth & Margins

RCATAVAVKTOSONDSAIROLHXMedian
NameRed Cat AeroViro.Kratos D.Ondas AIRO L3Harris. 
Rev Chg LTM-15.0%79.9%14.0%208.4%136.3%2.9%46.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg76.6%48.0%14.3%195.1%-8.4%48.0%
Rev Chg Q247.4%150.7%26.0%582.0%-35.8%2.4%88.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM75.0%26.2%5.9%53.4%-3.6%0.6%16.0%
Op Mgn LTM-323.0%-5.1%1.9%-176.1%-8.4%11.1%-6.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-307.5%2.9%2.6%-338.8%-65.0%10.4%-31.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM134.2%-2.1%-0.1%51.7%-9.8%0.2%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-391.8%-14.2%-0.7%-137.9%-11.7%-14.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-331.9%-4.2%2.0%-294.4%-11.0%-4.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-399.7%-18.5%-7.3%-140.2%-10.1%-18.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-347.3%-7.6%-3.5%-305.9%-9.2%-7.6%

Valuation

RCATAVAVKTOSONDSAIROLHXMedian
NameRed Cat AeroViro.Kratos D.Ondas AIRO L3Harris. 
Mkt Cap1.015.711.92.00.552.17.0
P/S64.311.412.181.15.82.711.8
P/EBIT--475.0--22.6248.8
P/E-15.7-225.1778.9-47.0-16.333.7-16.0
P/CFO-16.4-80.4-1,811.5-58.8-22.8-58.8
Total Yield-6.4%-0.4%0.1%-2.1%-6.1%4.5%-1.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.6%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg---0.8%--4.2%1.7%
D/E--0.0--0.20.1
Net D/E---0.0--0.20.1

Returns

RCATAVAVKTOSONDSAIROLHXMedian
NameRed Cat AeroViro.Kratos D.Ondas AIRO L3Harris. 
1M Rtn1.8%-19.2%-0.7%17.8%-28.3%-3.1%-1.9%
3M Rtn-38.9%-15.8%-7.9%20.8%-61.2%-0.7%-11.8%
6M Rtn-5.6%20.6%65.5%375.5%-71.8%13.0%16.8%
12M Rtn-28.7%39.7%156.0%341.3%85.2%30.0%62.5%
3Y Rtn575.5%179.9%657.5%298.4%85.2%39.3%239.1%
1M Excs Rtn1.0%-20.0%-1.4%17.1%-29.0%-3.9%-2.6%
3M Excs Rtn-32.7%-20.5%-14.8%10.3%-64.1%-2.4%-17.7%
6M Excs Rtn-17.9%8.2%53.1%363.1%-84.2%0.6%4.4%
12M Excs Rtn-27.4%35.3%148.9%415.4%74.2%16.2%54.7%
3Y Excs Rtn410.6%92.8%585.0%171.2%16.8%-31.9%132.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil202420232022
Single segment550
Total550


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity22,284,335
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-11.2%
Average Daily Volume7,064,191
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.15
Basic Shares Quantity99,581,172
Short % of Basic Shares22.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
3/18/2024-6.4%-0.6%82.1%
9/15/20231.0%1.6%5.2%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive112
# Negative110
Median Positive1.0%1.6%43.6%
Median Negative-6.4%-0.6% 
Max Positive1.0%1.6%82.1%
Max Negative-6.4%-0.6% 

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251113202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024331202510-KT 12/31/2024
103120241216202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024923202410-Q 7/31/2024
4302024808202410-K 4/30/2024
1312024318202410-Q 1/31/2024
103120231215202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023919202310-Q 7/31/2023
4302023727202310-K 4/30/2023
1312023307202310-Q 1/31/2023
103120221215202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022912202210-Q 7/31/2022
4302022727202210-K 4/30/2022
1312022317202210-Q 1/31/2022

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Moe Christopher R.9152025Sell8.9010,00089,000917,350Form
1Moe Christopher R.8222025Sell8.9310,00089,3001,160,061Form