Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more.
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -42 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -457%
1  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 73x
2  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -49%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -49%
3  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -451%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -458%
4  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14%
5  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 125%
6  Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 27%
7  Short seller report
Fuzzy Panda Research report on 10/10/2025.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more.
1 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -42 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -457%
2 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 73x
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -49%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -49%
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -451%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -458%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14%
6 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 125%
7 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 27%
8 Short seller report
Fuzzy Panda Research report on 10/10/2025.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RCAT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Red Cat (RCAT) experienced a decline of 15.5% in its stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors.

1. Downgraded Fiscal Year 2025 Revenue Guidance: Red Cat significantly lowered its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $34.5 million to $37.5 million, a substantial reduction from the prior guidance of $80 million to $120 million. This considerable cut in expected revenue caused investors to sell off the stock.

2. Delay in SRR Black Widow LRIP Contract: A 6-7 week delay in the revenue recognition from the Short Range Reconnaissance (SRR) Black Widow Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP) contract directly contributed to the substantial downgrade in the fiscal year 2025 top-line guidance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RCAT Return44%32%-55%-6%1360%-46%533%
Peers Return-13%-2%-3%14%-2%47%36%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RCAT Win Rate17%33%50%50%75%60% 
Peers Win Rate17%8%10%12%5%31% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RCAT Max Drawdown-64%0%-63%-41%-34%-64% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-5%-7%-0%-2%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRCATS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-92.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1190.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven350 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-82.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven475.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven408 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-94.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1642.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1851 days120 days

Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC


In The Past

Red Cat's stock fell -92.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/16/2021. A -92.3% loss requires a 1190.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Red Cat (RCAT)

Better Bets than Red Cat (RCAT)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RCAT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Red Cat

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RCATFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameRed Cat Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Mkt Price7.5518.5551.72-29.503.5418.55
Mkt Cap0.7-1.8---1.3
Rev LTM9101831--455
Op Inc LTM-42-21150---9-25
FCF LTM-42-19951---9-25
FCF 3Y Avg-29-8---11-11
CFO LTM-41-16574---9-25
CFO 3Y Avg-28-22---10-10

Growth & Margins

RCATFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameRed Cat Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Rev Chg LTM-48.6%-6.2%--166.4%6.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg69.7%-19.5%--94.3%69.7%
Rev Chg Q-49.0%-3.8%--330.2%3.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-25.2%-0.9%--35.8%0.9%
Op Mgn LTM-457.2%-209.3%6.0%---209.1%-209.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-358.5%-2.2%---699.5%-358.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-178.9%-1.7%--86.7%1.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-450.8%-164.1%8.9%---212.3%-188.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-363.0%-2.5%---716.7%-363.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-458.5%-197.5%6.1%---216.3%-206.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-383.7%-0.8%---777.8%-383.7%

Valuation

RCATFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameRed Cat Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Mkt Cap0.7-1.8---1.3
P/S72.6-1.9---37.3
P/EBIT-15.9-32.3---8.2
P/E-10.7--523.2----266.9
P/CFO-16.1-22.0---2.9
Total Yield-9.4%--0.2%----4.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%-0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-23.5%--0.5%----12.0%
D/E0.0-0.2---0.1
Net D/E-0.1-0.2---0.1

Returns

RCATFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameRed Cat Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
1M Rtn-26.4%-22.0%6.1%---10.6%-16.3%
3M Rtn-11.9%-58.2%40.5%--19.6%3.8%
6M Rtn-6.4%-61.1%---27.3%
12M Rtn-17.8%-215.2%---98.7%
3Y Rtn556.5%-466.5%---511.5%
1M Excs Rtn-26.4%-22.0%6.1%---10.6%-16.3%
3M Excs Rtn-16.6%-62.0%27.1%--13.0%-1.8%
6M Excs Rtn-21.2%-46.4%---12.6%
12M Excs Rtn-49.4%-206.7%---78.6%
3Y Excs Rtn478.1%-493.7%---485.9%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity25,100,200
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120256.6%
Average Daily Volume10,436,701
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.40
Basic Shares Quantity91,295,342
Short % of Basic Shares27.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024331202510-KT 12/31/2024
103120241216202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024923202410-Q 7/31/2024
4302024808202410-K 4/30/2024
1312024318202410-Q 1/31/2024
103120231215202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023919202310-Q 7/31/2023
4302023727202310-K 4/30/2023
1312023307202310-Q 1/31/2023
103120221215202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022912202210-Q 7/31/2022
4302022727202210-K 4/30/2022
1312022317202210-Q 1/31/2022
103120211220202110-Q 10/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Moe Christopher R.9152025Sell8.9010,00089,000917,350Form
1Moe Christopher R.8222025Sell8.9310,00089,3001,160,061Form