Red Cat (RCAT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.01 | Market Cap: $731.3 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Red Cat (RCAT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.01Market Cap: $731.3 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -42 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -457% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 73x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -49%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -49% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -451%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -458% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 125% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 27% | |
| Short seller reportFuzzy Panda Research report on 10/10/2025. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -42 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -457% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 73x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -49%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -49% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -451%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -458% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 125% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 27% |
| Short seller reportFuzzy Panda Research report on 10/10/2025. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RCAT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Red Cat (RCAT) experienced a decline of 15.5% in its stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors.
1. Downgraded Fiscal Year 2025 Revenue Guidance: Red Cat significantly lowered its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $34.5 million to $37.5 million, a substantial reduction from the prior guidance of $80 million to $120 million. This considerable cut in expected revenue caused investors to sell off the stock.
2. Delay in SRR Black Widow LRIP Contract: A 6-7 week delay in the revenue recognition from the Short Range Reconnaissance (SRR) Black Widow Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP) contract directly contributed to the substantial downgrade in the fiscal year 2025 top-line guidance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RCAT Return | 44% | 32% | -55% | -6% | 1360% | -46% | 533% |
| Peers Return | -13% | -2% | -3% | 14% | -2% | 47% | 36% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RCAT Win Rate | 17% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 17% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 5% | 31% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RCAT Max Drawdown | -64% | 0% | -63% | -41% | -34% | -64% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -5% | -7% | -0% | -2% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RCAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -92.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1190.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -82.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 475.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 408 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -94.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1642.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1851 days | 120 days |
Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC
In The Past
Red Cat's stock fell -92.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/16/2021. A -92.3% loss requires a 1190.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Red Cat Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return | ||
| Red Cat Stock Slides 38% In A Single Month, Why You Shouldn Not Be Buying The Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| Red Cat (RCAT) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Red Cat (RCAT) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Red Cat (RCAT) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Red Cat (RCAT) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Red Cat (RCAT) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Red Cat (RCAT) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Red Cat (RCAT) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Red Cat (RCAT) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| What’s Behind The 500% Rise In Red Cat Stock? | July 17th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RCAT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Red Cat
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.55 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| Rev LTM | 55 |
| Op Inc LTM | -25 |
| FCF LTM | -25 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -11 |
| CFO LTM | -25 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 69.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -209.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -358.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -188.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -363.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -206.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -383.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| P/S | 37.3 |
| P/EBIT | 8.2 |
| P/E | -266.9 |
| P/CFO | 2.9 |
| Total Yield | -4.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -12.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -16.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 98.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 511.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -16.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 78.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 485.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 10-KT 12/31/2024 |
| 10312024 | 12162024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9232024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 8082024 | 10-K 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3182024 | 10-Q 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12152023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9192023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 7272023 | 10-K 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3072023 | 10-Q 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12152022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9122022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 7272022 | 10-K 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3172022 | 10-Q 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12202021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |