Red Cat (RCAT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $7.01 | Market Cap: $698.1 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Red Cat (RCAT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $7.01Market Cap: $698.1 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -52 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -323% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 64x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -392%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -400% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 57% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 123% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 22% | |
| Short seller reportFuzzy Panda Research report on 10/10/2025. | |
| Key risksRCAT key risks include [1] significant unprofitability and high cash burn, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -52 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -323% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 64x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -392%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -400% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 57% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 123% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 22% |
| Short seller reportFuzzy Panda Research report on 10/10/2025. |
| Key risksRCAT key risks include [1] significant unprofitability and high cash burn, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RCAT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Red Cat (RCAT) stock moved by -22.9% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
**1. Red Cat Holdings reported a significant miss in its Q3 2025 earnings, falling short of analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share.** The company announced Q3 2025 revenue of $9.6 million, substantially lower than the Wall Street consensus of $14.12 million. Furthermore, Red Cat's reported loss of 16 cents per share was nearly double the analyst consensus of a 9-cent loss.
**2. The company lowered its full-year 2025 revenue guidance, indicating a slower growth trajectory than previously anticipated.** Red Cat Holdings adjusted its full-year revenue guidance for 2025 to a range of $34.5 million to $37.5 million, primarily attributing this reduction to delays in revenue recognition.
**3. Red Cat experienced an increase in operating costs, leading to a widening net loss despite reported revenue growth.** The company's net loss worsened by 28.8% to $16 million in Q3 2025. General and administrative expenses also saw a substantial increase of 48% compared to the prior quarter, driven by expanded organizational infrastructure.
**4. The Q4 2025 revenue guidance provided by Red Cat Holdings disappointed analysts, signaling a slower-than-expected ramp-up in the upcoming quarter.** The company's forecast for Q4 2025 revenue, set between $20 million and $23 million, did not meet the analyst consensus of $26.4 million.
**5. Share dilution occurred as the weighted average number of shares outstanding increased considerably.** The number of shares outstanding grew by 31.5% year-over-year to 99.6 million, which can negatively impact the value of existing shares for investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RCAT Return | 44% | 32% | -55% | -6% | 1360% | -43% | 570% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -14% | -17% | 29% | 24% | 115% | 212% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RCAT Win Rate | 17% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 32% | 33% | 45% | 42% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RCAT Max Drawdown | -64% | 0% | -63% | -41% | -34% | -64% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -22% | -29% | -21% | -18% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AVAV, KTOS, ONDS, AIRO, LHX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RCAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -92.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1190.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -82.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 475.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 408 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -94.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1642.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,851 days | 120 days |
Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC
In The Past
Red Cat's stock fell -92.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/16/2021. A -92.3% loss requires a 1190.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Is Red Cat Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | ||
| Red Cat Stock Down 14% in One Week, Time To Buy The Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Red Cat (RCAT) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Red Cat (RCAT) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Red Cat (RCAT) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Red Cat (RCAT) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Red Cat (RCAT) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Red Cat (RCAT) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Red Cat (RCAT) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Red Cat (RCAT) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| What’s Behind The 500% Rise In Red Cat Stock? | July 17th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RCAT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Red Cat
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 38.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.0 |
| Rev LTM | 690 |
| Op Inc LTM | -26 |
| FCF LTM | -64 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -36 |
| CFO LTM | -34 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -35 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 46.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 48.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 88.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 16.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -6.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -31.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -14.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -4.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -18.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.0 |
| P/S | 11.8 |
| P/EBIT | 248.8 |
| P/E | -16.0 |
| P/CFO | -58.8 |
| Total Yield | -1.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 62.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 239.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 54.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 132.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/18/2024 | -6.4% | -0.6% | 82.1% |
| 9/15/2023 | 1.0% | 1.6% | 5.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 1.0% | 1.6% | 43.6% |
| Median Negative | -6.4% | -0.6% | |
| Max Positive | 1.0% | 1.6% | 82.1% |
| Max Negative | -6.4% | -0.6% | |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11132025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 10-KT 12/31/2024 |
| 10312024 | 12162024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9232024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 8082024 | 10-K 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3182024 | 10-Q 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12152023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9192023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 7272023 | 10-K 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3072023 | 10-Q 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12152022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9122022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 7272022 | 10-K 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3172022 | 10-Q 1/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |