Red Cat (RCAT)
Market Price (7/10/2026): $9.19 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Red Cat (RCAT)
Market Price (7/10/2026): $9.19Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 345% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -81 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -149% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 20x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -217% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 120% Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24% Short seller reportFuzzy Panda Research report on 10/10/2025. Key risksRCAT key risks include [1] significant unprofitability and high cash burn, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 345% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -81 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -149% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 20x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -217% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 120% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24% |
| Short seller reportFuzzy Panda Research report on 10/10/2025. |
| Key risksRCAT key risks include [1] significant unprofitability and high cash burn, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Red Cat (RCAT) stock has lost about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) reported weaker-than-expected financial results for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on March 31, 2026. The company announced its Q1 2026 earnings on May 7, 2026, where it reported a GAAP EPS of -$0.22, missing analyst forecasts of -$0.1317 by 67%. Additionally, revenue for the quarter was $15.5 million, falling short of the $18.78 million estimate by 17.63%. Despite an 849% year-over-year revenue increase, the company’s net loss widened to $26.6 million for fiscal Q1 2026, compared to a $23.1 million loss in the same period last year. Operating expenses surged by 152%, primarily due to higher research and development, sales and marketing, and a 201% increase in stock-based compensation to $4.8 million, leading to an operating loss of $27.3 million.
2. The company experienced significant cash burn and a notable increase in inventory during fiscal Q1 2026. Red Cat Holdings reported net cash used in operating activities of $31.9 million for the quarter, largely attributed to outflows related to inventory. Its cash balance decreased to $131.9 million as of March 31, 2026, down from $167.9 million on December 31, 2025. Concurrently, inventory and prepaid inventory substantially increased to $62.7 million at March 31, 2026, up from $30.4 million at the close of fiscal year 2025, which can raise concerns about capital efficiency and potential risks if demand or program timing changes.
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Red Cat (RCAT) stock has lost about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) reported weaker-than-expected financial results for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on March 31, 2026. The company announced its Q1 2026 earnings on May 7, 2026, where it reported a GAAP EPS of -$0.22, missing analyst forecasts of -$0.1317 by 67%. Additionally, revenue for the quarter was $15.5 million, falling short of the $18.78 million estimate by 17.63%. Despite an 849% year-over-year revenue increase, the company’s net loss widened to $26.6 million for fiscal Q1 2026, compared to a $23.1 million loss in the same period last year. Operating expenses surged by 152%, primarily due to higher research and development, sales and marketing, and a 201% increase in stock-based compensation to $4.8 million, leading to an operating loss of $27.3 million.
2. The company experienced significant cash burn and a notable increase in inventory during fiscal Q1 2026. Red Cat Holdings reported net cash used in operating activities of $31.9 million for the quarter, largely attributed to outflows related to inventory. Its cash balance decreased to $131.9 million as of March 31, 2026, down from $167.9 million on December 31, 2025. Concurrently, inventory and prepaid inventory substantially increased to $62.7 million at March 31, 2026, up from $30.4 million at the close of fiscal year 2025, which can raise concerns about capital efficiency and potential risks if demand or program timing changes.
3. RCAT's high valuation was challenged by persistent unprofitability and a lack of a clear path to sustained earnings. As of March 20, 2026, Red Cat was trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 44.4x, significantly higher than its peers at 4.9x and the broader US Aerospace & Defense sector at 4.6x. This indicated that investors were paying a premium for the company's revenue. However, despite analyst forecasts projecting revenue growth of 44.4% per year, the company remained unprofitable, with a trailing twelve-month net loss of approximately $72.1 million ending December 31, 2025, and analysts anticipate continued unprofitability for at least the next three years. This disconnect between a high valuation and ongoing losses likely contributed to investor re-evaluation and the stock's decline.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -29.8% change in RCAT stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -47.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.09 | 9.19 | -29.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 41 | 55 | 34.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 38.4 | 20.4 | -47.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 119 | 121 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -29.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RCAT | -29.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 41.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.0% | 19.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.9% change in RCAT stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 240.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.93 | 9.19 | 15.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 16 | 55 | 240.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 49.3 | 20.4 | -58.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 100 | 121 | -17.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.9% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RCAT | 15.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.5% | 37.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 17.1% | 29.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.2% change in RCAT stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 345.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.28 | 9.19 | 26.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12 | 55 | 345.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 50.8 | 20.4 | -59.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 86 | 121 | -29.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RCAT | 26.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.7% | 36.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 24.0% | 31.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 672.3% change in RCAT stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 1024.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.19 | 9.19 | 672.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5 | 55 | 1024.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 13.3 | 20.4 | 52.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 54 | 121 | -55.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 672.3% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RCAT | 672.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 26.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 75.8% | 24.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RCAT Return | 32% | -55% | -6% | 1360% | -38% | 16% | 480% |
| Peers Return | -14% | -17% | 29% | 24% | 135% | -22% | 108% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RCAT Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 58% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 32% | 33% | 45% | 42% | 55% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RCAT Max Drawdown | -74% | -72% | -61% | -47% | -67% | -51% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -39% | -29% | -29% | -49% | -51% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AVAV, KTOS, ONDS, AIRO, LHX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RCAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 100.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 131 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 636 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -76.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 325.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 408 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Red Cat's stock fell -46.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 87.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | RCAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 100.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 131 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 636 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -76.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 325.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 408 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Red Cat's stock fell -46.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 87.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Red Cat (RCAT)
Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) is a technology company focused on providing a comprehensive suite of products, services, and solutions to the drone industry. The company develops and supplies unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology for both commercial and government sectors, specializing in applications such as reconnaissance, public safety, and various inspection services.
RCAT's offerings extend beyond core UAV technology to include First Person View (FPV) video goggles for immersive drone operation. It also provides specialized software and hardware solutions designed to enable drones to conduct inspection services in challenging environments where global positioning systems (GPS) are not accessible. Additionally, Red Cat engages in the resale of FPV drones and related equipment, primarily serving the consumer marketplace. The company is also actively developing advanced solutions, including drone flight data analytics, storage, and diagnostic products and services.
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'Honeywell for drones'.
'Cisco for the drone industry'.
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- Commercial & Government UAV Technology: Provides unmanned aerial vehicle technology for reconnaissance, public safety, and inspection applications.
- FPV Video Goggles: Offers First Person View (FPV) video goggles for drone operation.
- GPS-Denied Environment Solutions: Develops software and hardware solutions that enable drones to complete inspection services in locations where global positioning systems are not available.
- FPV Drone & Equipment Resale: Resells FPV drones and associated equipment primarily to the consumer marketplace.
- Drone Flight Data Analytics & Storage: Developing drone flight data analytics and storage solutions.
- Drone Diagnostic Products & Services: Developing diagnostic products and services for drones.
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Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) serves a diverse range of customers across its various product and service offerings. Given its mixed business model, which includes both business-to-business (B2B), business-to-government (B2G), and business-to-consumer (B2C) sales, its major customers can be categorized as follows:
- Government Agencies: This category includes military, intelligence, and public safety organizations (such as police departments, fire services, and emergency response teams) that utilize Red Cat's unmanned aerial vehicle technology for reconnaissance, surveillance, and public safety applications.
- Commercial Enterprises: Companies across various industries, including energy, utilities, infrastructure, construction, and potentially mining, are customers for Red Cat's advanced drone technology, specialized inspection services (especially in GPS-denied environments), and developing drone flight data analytics and storage solutions.
- Individual Consumers and Hobbyists: Red Cat serves the consumer marketplace through the resale of FPV (First Person View) drones and related equipment. This category primarily includes drone enthusiasts, hobbyists, and professional drone pilots who purchase products for recreational use, drone racing, or specialized aerial content creation.
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Jeffrey Thompson, President, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Jeffrey Thompson has been President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of Red Cat Holdings, Inc. since May 2019, following the acquisition of Red Cat Propware, Inc., a company he founded. He is described as a serial tech entrepreneur with a history of founding and leading companies from startup to successful exits and IPOs. Previously, Mr. Thompson founded EdgeNet Inc., a privately held Internet service provider that was sold to Citadel Broadcasting Corporation in 1997. He also co-founded and served as President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of Towerstream Corporation (NASDAQ:TWER), a fixed-wireless company, from November 2005 to February 2016.
Christian Morrison, Chief Financial Officer
Christian Morrison was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Red Cat Holdings, Inc. in December 2025. He brings over 20 years of experience in corporate finance, encompassing high-stakes financial milestones such as IPOs, M&A transactions, divestitures, strategic planning, and capital markets. Before joining Red Cat, Mr. Morrison served as Vice President, Finance, and Interim Chief Financial Officer at Skullcandy, Inc. from 2018 to 2025, where he played a pivotal role in the strategic transition from public to private governance. He was also a financial leader at Varex Imaging, Inc. from 2016 to 2018 as Director of SEC Reporting and Technical Accounting, instrumental in the carve-out of Varex Imaging, Inc. as a separate public company.
Christian Koji Ericson, Chief Operating Officer
Christian Koji Ericson was promoted to Chief Operating Officer in December 2025. Prior to this, he served as Red Cat's Chief Financial Officer since March 2025. Mr. Ericson has over 20 years of finance and accounting experience, including 11 years with PricewaterhouseCoopers. He also held senior finance roles at Nu Skin Enterprises, where he was Chief Audit Executive, VP of Business Development, and VP of Finance for its agriculture technology division. Most recently, before joining Red Cat, he was Head of Finance and Accounting at Western Steel Buildings, where he was involved in scaling financial operations.
Geoffrey Hitchcock, Chief Revenue Officer
Geoffrey Hitchcock serves as the Chief Revenue Officer of Red Cat Holdings, Inc. and has been the General Manager of its subsidiary, Teal Drones, Inc., since March 2024. Previously, he was the Senior Vice President for Global Defense Solutions at Red Cat Holdings, Inc. since September 2021. Before joining Red Cat, Mr. Hitchcock was the Vice President for Sales and Business Development at Vantage Robotics, a supplier of military and commercial UAVs, from April 2021 through August 2021. He also has a distinguished background of twenty-two years in the U.S. Air Force, where he served as the UAV Subject Matter Expert for the Air Force Special Operations Command.
George Matus, Chief Technology Officer
George Matus was appointed Chief Technology Officer of Red Cat Holdings, Inc. in November 2023. He founded Teal Drones in 2015 and continued to lead the company after it was acquired by Red Cat in August 2021, serving as its CEO. Mr. Matus has been instrumental in the company's efforts to secure the U.S. Army's Short-Range Reconnaissance (SRR) contract. He is also a Peter Thiel Fellow and has been recognized as a Forbes 30 Under 30 member.
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- Financial Sustainability and Profitability: Red Cat Holdings is currently deeply unprofitable, characterized by negative gross margins and significant cash burn from operations. The company incurs high operating expenses related to research and development, marketing, and administration. This financial strain raises concerns about its ability to achieve profitability and may necessitate additional external funding, potentially leading to dilutive capital raises for existing shareholders.
- Execution Risk and Reliance on Government Contracts: The company faces substantial execution risk in scaling production to fulfill its obligations, particularly for major government contracts like the U.S. Army's Short Range Reconnaissance (SRR) program. Delays in production, cost overruns, or quality control issues could severely damage its credibility with military clients and hinder future contract acquisition. A significant portion of Red Cat's revenue is tied to U.S. government contracts, exposing it to risks associated with changes in procurement cycles, budget shifts, and the government's option to refresh drone models or switch contractors. There have also been allegations of overstated production capabilities and contract importance, which could lead to legal and reputational damage.
- Market Volatility, Competition, and Rapid Technological Change: Red Cat's stock has experienced extreme price volatility, reflecting investor uncertainty and market fluctuations. The drone industry is highly competitive, with numerous players, and is characterized by rapid technological advancements. This rapid evolution presents a risk that Red Cat's current products could quickly become obsolete, necessitating continuous and costly investment in research and development to remain competitive.
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For Red Cat (RCAT), the addressable markets for its main products and services are estimated as follows:
-
Commercial and Government Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Technology for Reconnaissance, Public Safety, and Inspection Applications:
- The global commercial drone market was valued at approximately USD 30.02 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 54.64 billion by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.6% from 2025 to 2030. Other estimates place the global commercial drone market at USD 13.86 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 65.25 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 20.8% during the forecast period. Additionally, another report valued the global commercial drone market at USD 38.2 Billion in 2025, expecting it to reach USD 189.9 Billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 19.50% from 2026-2034.
The broader global Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) market, which encompasses both commercial and government applications, was valued at approximately USD 44.54 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to USD 209.91 billion by 2035, representing a CAGR of 16.77% from 2026 to 2035. Another estimate projects the global UAV market size to grow from USD 47.55 billion in 2026 to USD 160.44 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 16.40%.
- The global public safety drones market was valued at USD 2.3 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 9.9 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 15.7% from 2024 to 2033. North America held the dominant public safety drone market share in 2024. Another report indicates the market was valued at USD 1.6 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 4.1 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 9.87%.
- The global inspection drones market was valued at USD 3.37 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 12.34 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 17.6%. Another source estimates the global inspection drones market size at USD 10.2 billion in 2022, expected to reach USD 39.8 billion by 2032 at a CAGR of 14.5%. The market is also projected to reach USD 61.4 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 21.66% during the forecast period (2025-2034).
- The global commercial drone market was valued at approximately USD 30.02 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 54.64 billion by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.6% from 2025 to 2030. Other estimates place the global commercial drone market at USD 13.86 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 65.25 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 20.8% during the forecast period. Additionally, another report valued the global commercial drone market at USD 38.2 Billion in 2025, expecting it to reach USD 189.9 Billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 19.50% from 2026-2034.
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First Person View (FPV) Video Goggles and Resale of FPV Drones and Equipment (Consumer Marketplace):
- The global FPV Drone Market was valued at USD 287 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1.12 billion by the end of 2030, growing at a CAGR of 31.38% from 2025-2030. Another source estimates the global FPV Racing Drone Market reached USD 759.2 million in 2024 and is projected to grow to approximately USD 3,906.6 million by 2034, at a CAGR of 17.80%. The estimated worth of the global FPV Drone Market stands at USD 335.62 Million in 2023, with projections indicating an increase to USD 1349.66 Million by 2030, representing a growth rate of 19% during the forecast period from 2024 to 2030.
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Software and Hardware Solutions for GPS-Denied Inspection, Drone Flight Data Analytics, and Storage Solutions:
- The global drone software market was valued at USD 9.27 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 24.39 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 16.0% from 2025 to 2030. Other estimates for the global drone software market include USD 5.9 billion in 2023 and USD 6.8 billion in 2023, projected to reach USD 43.20 billion by the end of 2030 with a CAGR of 26%.
- The global drone analytics market size was estimated at USD 14.99 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 49.97 billion in 2030, growing at a CAGR of 22.0% from 2025 to 2030. Another report valued the global drone analytics market size at USD 18.64 billion in 2025 and projected it to grow to USD 115.05 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 22.42% during the forecast period.
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Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) is poised for significant revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors in the rapidly expanding defense and national security sectors.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- U.S. Army Short Range Reconnaissance (SRR) Program of Record and Black Widow Drone Sales: A primary driver is the company's Black Widow drone, which was selected as the sole provider for the U.S. Army's SRR Program of Record. Red Cat secured an expanded TD3/LRIP (Tranche 3/Limited Rate Production) contract with the U.S. Army for Black Widow systems, valued at approximately $35 million. The long-term SRR program could involve the acquisition of up to 5,880 Black Widow drones over five years, with a potential future FRIP (Full Rate Production) contract expected to further accelerate orders from hundreds to thousands of drones. SRR-related sales alone are projected to contribute $25-$65 million to FY2025 revenue.
- Expansion in Government and International Defense Markets: Beyond the SRR program, Red Cat is experiencing increased adoption of its specialized drone solutions within the broader defense and national security sectors, including federal agencies and over 10 NATO countries. The Teal 2 drone is gaining traction as a preferred small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) for the Department of Defense (DoD), and the company anticipates continued growth from sales of its Edge 130 VTOL drones and FANG drones, backed by increasing government orders and new international contracts. This expansion is supported by a global rise in defense expenditures on drone technology.
- Entry into the Maritime Domain with Blue Ops: Red Cat launched a new Maritime Division, Blue Ops, focusing on developing and delivering uncrewed surface vessel (USV) weapons systems. This division has established a 155,000 square foot facility with a manufacturing capacity of over 500 vessels per year, representing a significant new market opportunity. The anticipated increase in USV shipments is aligned with the DoD's commitment to maritime autonomy, indicating a robust demand for Red Cat's innovative solutions in this emerging sector.
- Advanced Software Integrations and AI Capabilities: Red Cat is enhancing its drone platforms through strategic software integrations and technological advancements, which can drive both sales and higher margins. Key initiatives include integrating Palantir Technologies' Visual Navigation (VNav) software into the Black Widow drone for operations in GPS-denied environments. The company is also working on integrating Teledyne FLIR's Prism AI into next-generation drones and incorporating AI-driven voice control technology through a partnership with Primordial Labs, further improving autonomous drone control and functionality. These advanced capabilities increase the strategic value and appeal of Red Cat's offerings to military buyers.
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Share Issuance
- In July 2021, Red Cat Holdings closed a public offering of 13,333,334 shares of common stock at $4.50 per share, generating gross proceeds of approximately $60,000,000. The funds were intended for services, sales and marketing, strategic acquisitions, and general working capital.
- The company completed a registered direct offering in April 2025, selling 4,724,412 shares of common stock to institutional investors for gross proceeds of approximately $30,000,000. These funds were designated for general corporate purposes and working capital.
- In September 2025, Red Cat Holdings announced the closing of an underwritten public offering of 17,968,750 shares of common stock, including the full exercise of the underwriters' over-allotment option, resulting in gross proceeds of approximately $172,500,000. The net proceeds were intended for general corporate and working capital purposes, including operating expenditures for its new unmanned surface vessel division.
Outbound Investments
- Proceeds from a July 2021 public offering were intended, in part, for strategic acquisitions.
- Red Cat is expanding into the maritime domain through its unmanned surface vessel (USV) division, including Blue Ops, Inc., indicating investments in new product lines and capabilities.
Capital Expenditures
- Red Cat Holdings reported annual capital expenditures of $2,450,000 in 2023 and $422,700 in 2024.
- For the quarter ending September 30, 2025, capital expenditures were $669,600, marking a significant increase of 2,713.45% from the same period in the prior year.
- The company's capital expenditures have focused on aggressive investment in production and engineering to meet increasing demand, particularly for new Army contracts and defense programs.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can Red Cat Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Red Cat Stock Shares Rally 12% In A Day, Now Is Not The Time To Buy The Stock | 07/17/2025 | |
| Red Cat (RCAT) Valuation Ratios Comparison | 07/17/2025 | |
| Red Cat (RCAT) Revenue Comparison | 07/17/2025 | |
| Red Cat (RCAT) Operating Income Comparison | 07/17/2025 | |
| Red Cat (RCAT) Net Income Comparison | 07/17/2025 | |
| Red Cat (RCAT) Tax Expense Comparison | 07/17/2025 | |
| Red Cat (RCAT) EBITDA Comparison | 07/17/2025 | |
| Red Cat (RCAT) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 07/17/2025 | |
| Red Cat (RCAT) Debt Comparison | 07/17/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| What’s Behind The 500% Rise In Red Cat Stock? | 07/17/2025 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 29.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.4 |
| Rev LTM | 756 |
| Op Inc LTM | -62 |
| FCF LTM | -103 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -50 |
| CFO LTM | -62 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -28 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 69.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 70.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 83.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 11.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -146.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -16.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -27.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -28.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -4.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -33.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $9.19 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/16/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -47.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $10.86 | $11.45 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -15.4% | -19.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 112.3% | 119.9% |
| Downside Capture | 598.38 | 373.56 |
| Upside Capture | 264.63 | 326.27 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 41.4% | 36.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.40 | 4.23 | 3.71 | 3.24 | 3.48 | 2.02 |
| Up Beta | 6.67 | 4.39 | 3.80 | 2.88 | 3.48 | 1.30 |
| Down Beta | 1.13 | 2.58 | 2.88 | 2.73 | 3.31 | 2.56 |
| Up Capture | 381% | 472% | 294% | 699% | 1170% | 4938% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 31 | 66 | 122 | 359 |
| Down Capture | 489% | 432% | 419% | 232% | 191% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 32 | 58 | 127 | 372 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RCAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCAT | 33.3% | 119.6% | 0.78 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 23.0% | 16.7% | 1.07 | 31.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.3% | 12.5% | 1.33 | 36.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.4% | 27.8% | 0.77 | 24.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 23.6% | 18.7% | 1.00 | 12.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.2% | 13.9% | 0.65 | 4.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.8% | 42.8% | -1.18 | 32.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RCAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCAT | 30.1% | 114.4% | 0.74 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.7% | 17.6% | 0.61 | 19.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 21.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.0% | 18.3% | 0.80 | 9.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.5% | 0.28 | 7.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 11.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.3% | 53.5% | 0.42 | 14.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RCAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCAT | 117.9% | 146,131.6% | 0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.8% | 20.0% | 0.65 | -4.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 17.9% | 0.75 | -1.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.7% | 16.1% | 0.59 | 5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.1% | 18.0% | 0.27 | -5.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 0.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 2.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | 0.1% | -6.0% | 20.3% |
| 3/18/2026 | -11.0% | -6.6% | -25.2% |
| 1/13/2026 | 9.4% | 20.7% | 0.5% |
| 3/18/2024 | -6.4% | -0.6% | 82.1% |
| 9/21/2023 | -1.6% | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| # Negative | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 10.4% | 10.6% |
| Median Negative | -6.4% | -6.0% | -25.2% |
| Max Positive | 9.4% | 20.7% | 82.1% |
| Max Negative | -11.0% | -6.6% | -25.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | 0.1% | -6.0% | 20.3% |
| 3/18/2026 | -11.0% | -6.6% | -25.2% |
| 1/13/2026 | 9.4% | 20.7% | 0.5% |
| 3/18/2024 | -6.4% | -0.6% | 82.1% |
| 9/21/2023 | -1.6% | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| # Negative | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 10.4% | 10.6% |
| Median Negative | -6.4% | -6.0% | -25.2% |
| Max Positive | 9.4% | 20.7% | 82.1% |
| Max Negative | -11.0% | -6.6% | -25.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/31/2025 | 10-KT |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/16/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/15/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/31/2025 | 10-KT |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/16/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/15/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2022 | 03/17/2022 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2021 | 12/20/2021 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2021 | 09/20/2021 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2021 | 08/12/2021 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2021 | 03/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2020 | 12/21/2020 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2020 | 09/21/2020 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2020 | 08/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2020 | 03/23/2020 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2019 | 12/23/2019 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2019 | 09/23/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/15/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Funk, Paul II | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 11.50 | 165,028 | Form | |||
| 2 | Moe, Christopher R | Direct | Sell | 9302025 | 10.91 | 10,000 | 109,100 | 579,026 | Form | |
| 3 | Moe, Christopher R | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 10.96 | 10,000 | 109,600 | 691,280 | Form | |
| 4 | Moe, Christopher R | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 10.11 | 30,000 | 303,300 | 738,768 | Form | |
| 5 | Moe, Christopher R | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 8.90 | 10,000 | 89,000 | 917,350 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Funk, Paul II | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 11.50 | 165,028 | Form | |||
| 2 | Moe, Christopher R | Direct | Sell | 9302025 | 10.91 | 10,000 | 109,100 | 579,026 | Form | |
| 3 | Moe, Christopher R | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 10.96 | 10,000 | 109,600 | 691,280 | Form | |
| 4 | Moe, Christopher R | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 10.11 | 30,000 | 303,300 | 738,768 | Form | |
| 5 | Moe, Christopher R | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 8.90 | 10,000 | 89,000 | 917,350 | Form | |
| 6 | Moe, Christopher R | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 9.58 | 16,833 | 161,260 | 1,083,239 | Form | |
| 7 | Moe, Christopher R | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 8.93 | 10,000 | 89,300 | 1,160,061 | Form | |
| 8 | Liuzza, Nicholas Reyland JR | Direct | Sell | 7092025 | 8.58 | 100,000 | 858,000 | 3,324,278 | Form | |
| 9 | Liuzza, Nicholas Reyland JR | Direct | Sell | 7092025 | 6.70 | 100,309 | 671,769 | 2,594,719 | Form | |
| 10 | Freedman, Joseph David | Direct | Sell | 7032025 | 7.37 | 150,000 | 1,105,500 | 1,217,966 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Aerospace & Defense Resources |
| Defense News |
| FlightGlobal |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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