Universal Logistics (ULH)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $16.3 | Market Cap: $429.2 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Universal Logistics (ULH)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $16.3Market Cap: $429.2 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 145% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Future of Freight. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 59x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.0% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.2% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.9% | ||
| Key risksULH key risks include [1] its heavy customer concentration and reliance on the automotive industry and [2] a substantial debt burden. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Future of Freight. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 145% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 59x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.0% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.2% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.9% |
| Key risksULH key risks include [1] its heavy customer concentration and reliance on the automotive industry and [2] a substantial debt burden. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ULH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Postponement of Q3 2025 Earnings Release: Universal Logistics Holdings announced on October 23, 2025, the postponement of its third-quarter 2025 financial results. This delay was to allow additional time to complete financial reporting procedures related to the calculation of non-cash impairment charges on certain intangible assets in the company's intermodal segment, which led to a 3.37% decline in ULH's stock on that day.
2. Weak Q3 2025 Financial Performance: On November 6, 2025, Universal Logistics reported its Q3 2025 results. While the company's earnings per share (EPS) of $0.24 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.18, its revenues of $396.79 million missed the consensus estimate by 0.95% and were lower than the $426.83 million reported in the same quarter a year prior. Furthermore, the EPS was significantly lower compared to $1.01 per share a year ago.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ULH Return | 10% | -7% | 81% | -15% | 66% | -64% | -6% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 31% | -16% | 39% | 14% | 16% | 149% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ULH Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 63% | 40% | 55% | 48% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ULH Max Drawdown | -39% | -14% | -14% | -36% | -1% | -71% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -5% | -28% | -9% | -18% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JBHT, KNX, XPO, SNDR, CHRW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ULH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 182 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 145 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -51.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,323 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,618 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to XPO, R, WERN, ODFL, JBHT
In The Past
Universal Logistics's stock fell -51.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/7/2023. A -51.7% loss requires a 107.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ULH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Universal Logistics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 98.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.8 |
| Rev LTM | 7,772 |
| Op Inc LTM | 514 |
| FCF LTM | 173 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 15 |
| CFO LTM | 847 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 841 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.8 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 20.2 |
| P/E | 29.5 |
| P/CFO | 7.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 20.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 17.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 13.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 20.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 15.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 9.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -59.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract logistics | 830 | 824 | 627 | 460 | 515 |
| Intermodal | 383 | 592 | 473 | 394 | 390 |
| Trucking | 333 | 393 | 403 | 318 | 390 |
| Other | 117 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Company-managed brokerage | 201 | 243 | 218 | 216 | |
| Total | 1,662 | 2,015 | 1,751 | 1,391 | 1,512 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract logistics | 128 | 118 | 45 | 36 | 48 |
| Trucking | 17 | 28 | 20 | 16 | -21 |
| Intermodal | 2 | 84 | 30 | 30 | 39 |
| Other | -1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
| Company-managed brokerage | 10 | 7 | -3 | 2 | |
| Total | 145 | 240 | 103 | 80 | 65 |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/24/2025 | 9.9% | -12.6% | -0.9% |
| 4/24/2025 | -4.8% | -16.5% | -14.1% |
| 2/6/2025 | -19.6% | -33.6% | -36.3% |
| 10/24/2024 | -10.9% | -3.2% | 16.1% |
| 7/25/2024 | -4.4% | -8.5% | -6.7% |
| 4/25/2024 | 39.4% | 33.6% | 39.0% |
| 2/15/2024 | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.8% |
| 10/26/2023 | -5.3% | 1.8% | 10.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 5.3% | 11.9% |
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -7.8% | -13.9% |
| Max Positive | 39.4% | 33.6% | 43.2% |
| Max Negative | -21.3% | -33.6% | -36.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3172025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |