Uber Technologies (UBER)
Market Price (3/28/2026): $68.85 | Market Cap: $142.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Ground Transportation
Uber Technologies (UBER)
Market Price (3/28/2026): $68.85Market Cap: $142.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%, FCF Yield is 6.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35% | Key risksUBER key risks include [1] global legal and regulatory challenges to its driver classification model and [2] the long-term threat of being disintermediated by companies operating their own autonomous vehicle networks. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.8 Bil | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Fintech & Digital Payments, Future of Freight, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%, FCF Yield is 6.8% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.8 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Fintech & Digital Payments, Future of Freight, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35% |
| Key risksUBER key risks include [1] global legal and regulatory challenges to its driver classification model and [2] the long-term threat of being disintermediated by companies operating their own autonomous vehicle networks. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Q4 2025 Earnings Miss and Conservative Q1 2026 Guidance.
Uber reported its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on February 4, 2026, delivering an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.71, which missed the consensus analyst estimate of $0.79 by $0.08. This miss was primarily attributed to a $1.6 billion pre-tax headwind resulting from equity investment revaluations. Despite exceeding revenue expectations with $14.37 billion, the company's Q1 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.65 to $0.72 fell below the consensus estimate of $0.76. These factors contributed to a stock price decline of over 7% immediately following the earnings release.
2. Increased Capital Investment in Autonomous Vehicle Development.
Uber's intensified strategic focus on autonomous vehicles (AVs) and robotaxis involves substantial capital expenditures, which are perceived to pressure near-term margins and profitability. On March 19, 2026, Uber announced a significant partnership with Rivian, committing to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031, contingent on achieving specific autonomous performance milestones. This collaboration aims to deploy up to 50,000 Rivian R2 robotaxis, with initial services planned for San Francisco and Miami by 2028 and an expansion to 25 cities by 2031. Investor skepticism regarding the capital-intensive nature of these rollouts has weighed on shares.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.0% change in UBER stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -42.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 87.54 | 69.18 | -21.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 49,610 | 52,017 | 4.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 33.5% | 19.3% | -42.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.0 | 14.3 | 30.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,084 | 2,073 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UBER | -21.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 28.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.9% | 26.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.2% change in UBER stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 93.75 | 69.18 | -26.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 47,331 | 52,017 | 9.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.7% | 19.3% | -27.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.5 | 14.3 | -8.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,091 | 2,073 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UBER | -26.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 40.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.5% | 35.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.0% change in UBER stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 76.01 | 69.18 | -9.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 43,978 | 52,017 | 18.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.4% | 19.3% | -13.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.2 | 14.3 | -12.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,106 | 2,073 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UBER | -9.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 59.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 18.4% | 57.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 108.0% change in UBER stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 63.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.26 | 69.18 | 108.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,877 | 52,017 | 63.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.1 | 2.8 | 32.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,995 | 2,073 | -3.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 108.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UBER | 108.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 48.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 65.1% | 48.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UBER Return | -18% | -41% | 149% | -2% | 35% | -14% | 38% |
| Peers Return | 15% | -37% | 37% | 13% | 22% | -9% | 26% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UBER Win Rate | 42% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 37% | 55% | 55% | 63% | 33% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UBER Max Drawdown | -30% | -51% | 0% | -6% | 0% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -43% | -10% | -21% | -25% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LYFT, DASH, CHRW, RXO, JBHT. See UBER Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UBER | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -67.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 208.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 545 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 178.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
Compare to LYFT, DASH, CHRW, RXO, JBHT
In The Past
Uber Technologies's stock fell -67.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/10/2021. A -67.6% loss requires a 208.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Uber Technologies (UBER)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Uber Technologies (UBER):
- It's like an Amazon for on-demand transportation and local delivery services.
- Think of it as an Expedia for booking ground transportation and local delivery solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Ridesharing/Ride-hailing: Connects consumers with independent drivers for transportation services in various vehicles.
- Meal Delivery: Enables consumers to order meals from local restaurants for pickup or delivery (Uber Eats).
- Grocery & Other Goods Delivery: Provides delivery services for groceries, alcohol, convenience store items, and select other goods.
- Freight Logistics: Connects carriers with shippers on its platform, offering transparent pricing and booking for freight shipments and other logistics services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlUber Technologies (UBER) primarily sells to individuals. The company serves the following categories of customers:
- Riders: Individuals who use the Uber platform to request and receive on-demand transportation services across a variety of vehicles. These customers are served by the Mobility segment.
- Delivery Consumers: Individuals who use the Uber Eats platform to order food from restaurants, groceries, alcohol, and other convenience items for delivery or pick-up. These customers are served by the Delivery segment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Uber Technologies (UBER) has the following major suppliers:
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Dara Khosrowshahi, Chief Executive Officer
Dara Khosrowshahi joined Uber as Chief Executive Officer in August 2017. He previously served as the CEO of Expedia Group for over 12 years, from August 2005 to September 2017, where he expanded the company's global presence and oversaw key acquisitions including Travelocity, Orbitz, and HomeAway. Prior to his role at Expedia, he was the Chief Financial Officer of IAC from January 1998 to January 2005. Khosrowshahi began his career in 1991 as an analyst at the investment bank Allen & Company.
Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah, Chief Financial Officer
Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Uber in November 2023. Before joining Uber, he served as CFO at Analog Devices from September 2017 to November 2023 and as CFO at WABCO Holdings from June 2014 to September 2017. During his tenure at WABCO, he led several critical corporate acquisitions and was instrumental in reshaping the company's operations and value proposition. His extensive financial experience also includes roles at Applied Materials, Visa, and United Technologies. Mahendra-Rajah currently serves on the board of directors for Shopify and The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company.
Andrew Macdonald, President and Chief Operating Officer
Andrew Macdonald serves as President and Chief Operating Officer, overseeing Uber's global operations and leading initiatives focused on enhancing efficiency and customer experience. He has been pivotal in expanding Uber's global footprint and forming strategic partnerships. His career at Uber is extensive, and he also holds board positions at Lime and Careem.
Tony West, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary
Tony West is Uber's Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary, leading the company's global Legal, Compliance and Ethics, and Security functions. Prior to Uber, he was Executive Vice President Public Policy and Government Affairs, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary at PepsiCo. West also held senior positions in the Obama administration, serving as the Associate Attorney General of the United States (2012-2014) and the Assistant Attorney General of the Civil Division (2009-2012) at the U.S. Department of Justice.
Sundeep Jain, Chief Product Officer and Senior Vice President of Engineering
Sundeep Jain is the Chief Product Officer and Senior Vice President of Engineering at Uber, where he is responsible for the global Mobility and Delivery products, encompassing product management, design, data science, and product operations. Before joining Uber, Jain was the Vice President of Product Management at Google, focusing on the Search Ads group. Earlier in his career, he was a Vice President at Zynga and founded a tech startup, Aceva Technologies, Inc., which was acquired by FIS.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Uber Technologies (UBER) are:- Regulatory and Legal Challenges Regarding Worker Classification: Uber's business model heavily relies on classifying its drivers and delivery persons as independent contractors. This classification is continuously challenged by legal and regulatory bodies globally, including in the United States. Should these challenges result in reclassifying drivers as employees, Uber could face substantial increases in operational costs due to mandated benefits, minimum wage requirements, overtime pay, and other employment-related expenses. Several lawsuits and audits have already led to significant settlements and liabilities for alleged misclassification. While California's Proposition 22 aimed to solidify the independent contractor model for gig workers, its legal standing continues to be contested.
- Intense Market Competition: Uber operates in highly competitive markets across its Mobility, Delivery, and Freight segments. In ride-hailing, it faces rivals like Lyft in the U.S. and various regional players globally (e.g., DiDi Chuxing, Grab). The delivery segment, particularly Uber Eats, competes intensely with companies such as DoorDash and Grubhub. This fierce competition can lead to price wars, increased promotional spending, and lower margins, which can negatively impact Uber's profitability and market share.
- Impact of Autonomous Vehicle Technology: The advancement and widespread adoption of autonomous vehicle (AV) technology pose a significant, long-term disruptive risk to Uber's driver-reliant business model. While Uber has explored and partnered in the AV space, successful scaling of driverless services by competitors like Waymo and Tesla could reduce the need for human drivers, fundamentally altering the ridesharing and delivery landscape. This could challenge Uber's current operating model or necessitate substantial investments and strategic adaptations to remain competitive, including potentially relying on AV fleets from other providers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Autonomous ride-hailing services from competitors (e.g., Waymo, Cruise) that could scale driverless operations, directly threatening Uber's Mobility segment by offering potentially lower-cost alternatives.
- Robotic and automated delivery services from competitors (e.g., Nuro, Starship) and major retailers, which could provide more efficient and cost-effective last-mile delivery, impacting Uber's Delivery segment.
- Increasing investment by restaurants, grocers, and other merchants in their own direct-to-consumer (D2C) online ordering and delivery infrastructure, potentially reducing their reliance on third-party aggregator platforms like Uber Eats.
- Autonomous trucking technologies developed and deployed by competitors, which could disrupt the traditional freight brokerage model that Uber Freight currently leverages.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Uber Technologies, Inc. operates across three primary segments: Mobility, Delivery, and Freight, each tapping into substantial addressable markets globally.
Mobility Segment (Ridesharing)
The global ride-sharing market, which encompasses Uber's Mobility segment, was valued at approximately USD 144.10 billion in 2025. This market is projected to expand significantly, reaching an estimated USD 659.39 billion by 2034, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.40% during the forecast period. North America held the largest share of this market in 2025, accounting for 44.52%.
Delivery Segment (Online Food and Grocery Delivery)
Online Food Delivery: The global online food delivery market was valued at USD 319.99 billion in 2025. Experts predict this market will grow to USD 728.83 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 9.58% during the 2026-2034 forecast period. Asia-Pacific is a dominant region, accounting for 34% of the global market share.
Online Grocery Delivery: For online grocery delivery services, the global market was estimated at USD 909.6 billion in 2025. It is projected to reach USD 7,644.8 billion by 2034, exhibiting a robust CAGR of 25.88% from 2026 to 2034. The Asia-Pacific region currently leads this market, holding over 58.3% of the market share in 2025.
Freight Segment (Freight and Logistics)
The global logistics market, relevant to Uber's Freight segment, was valued at USD 11.23 trillion in 2025. This market is anticipated to grow to approximately USD 24.36 trillion by 2035, with a CAGR of 8.05% from 2026 to 2035. In 2025, the Asia-Pacific region represented the largest share of the global logistics market, at 44.59%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Uber Technologies (UBER) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies across its segments:
- Expansion and Diversification of Delivery Services: Uber is significantly expanding its Delivery segment beyond traditional restaurant meals into new verticals such as groceries, alcohol, convenience stores, and general retail. The company has forged strategic partnerships with major retailers like Five Below, Dollar General, and Kroger to integrate their offerings onto the Uber Eats platform, aiming to capture a larger share of the on-demand delivery market. This diversification is intended to boost overall revenue by increasing the range of goods available for delivery.
- Growth in Mobility Segment through Audience Expansion, Increased Engagement, and New Offerings: Uber is focused on increasing its Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPC) and boosting trips per active user, particularly in suburban and international markets. New mobility product offerings like Moto (two-wheeler rides) and Reserve (pre-scheduled rides), along with women-preferred and teen-focused products, are contributing to audience growth. The Uber One membership program is crucial for customer retention and increasing usage frequency, with members spending significantly more than non-members. The company is also emphasizing geographic expansion, for example, aiming to cover 70% of Germany by the end of 2024 through local partnerships.
- Development and Deployment of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and AI Integration: Uber is making substantial investments and forming strategic partnerships (e.g., with Waymo, NVIDIA, Baidu Apollo Go) in autonomous vehicle technology. AVs are viewed as a significant growth opportunity, expected to amplify the platform's strengths, generate higher utilization, and improve economics. Furthermore, Uber is leveraging AI and machine learning across its operations to enhance efficiency, improve productivity, and personalize user experiences.
- Growth of the Advertising Platform: Uber is actively developing its advertising platform, leveraging its vast user base and proprietary data to create new revenue streams. This platform surpassed a $1.5 billion annual run rate in Q1 2025, with advertising penetration in delivery exceeding 2%. This growing segment represents a direct monetization strategy from its extensive ecosystem.
- Expansion and Technological Advancements in the Uber Freight Segment: Uber Freight is poised for significant growth, particularly in Europe, where it aims to increase freight under management tenfold to 2 billion euros by 2028. The segment is also deploying an AI-Driven Logistics Network to enhance real-time decision-making, improve efficiency, reduce costs, and increase profitability in logistics operations. This includes expanding into areas like long-haul trucking to address capacity shortages.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Uber's Board of Directors authorized its first-ever share repurchase program of up to $7.0 billion of common stock in February 2024.
- In January 2025, Uber entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement to buy back $1.5 billion of shares, as part of the previously authorized $7.0 billion program. These transactions were expected to be completed during the first quarter of 2025.
- In August 2025, the company announced an additional stock repurchase authorization of up to $20 billion, bringing the total authorized buyback amount for the year to $27 billion. Uber spent $1.9 billion on share buybacks in Q4 2025.
Share Issuance
- Uber Technologies reported $0 Million in Issuance of Stock as of December 2025.
- The number of outstanding shares for Uber Technologies decreased from 2.151 billion in 2024 to 2.120 billion in 2025, reflecting a reduction consistent with share repurchases. As of March 6, 2026, the company's shares outstanding were 2.08 billion.
Outbound Investments
- In February 2021, Uber acquired Drizly for $1.1 billion.
- In July 2021, Uber acquired Transplace for $2.25 billion.
- In May 2025, Uber acquired Trendyol Go for $700 million, securing an 85% controlling stake.
Capital Expenditures
- Uber's capital expenditures were $298 million in 2021, $252 million in 2022, $223 million in 2023, $242 million in 2024, and $336 million in 2025. Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 were $75.0 million.
- Forecasted capital expenditures for 2026 are $389.5 million.
- Uber maintains an "asset-light" business model, which contributes to lower capital expenditure requirements. The company approaches autonomous vehicles through a partnership-first strategy, rather than in-house development and hopes private equity will assume vehicle ownership, which affects future capital expenditure considerations.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to UBER.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | LZ | LegalZoom.com | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -5.0% |
| 02132026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -3.0% |
| 02132026 | TREX | Trex | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -5.9% |
| 02132026 | PCTY | Paylocity | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.6% | -0.6% | -4.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 107.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 19.4 |
| Rev LTM | 12,858 |
| Op Inc LTM | 760 |
| FCF LTM | 1,032 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 593 |
| CFO LTM | 1,423 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,177 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 19.4 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 22.7 |
| P/E | 23.4 |
| P/CFO | 17.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -18.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 62.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobility | 19,832 | 14,029 | 6,953 | 6,089 | 10,707 |
| Delivery | 12,204 | 10,901 | 8,362 | 3,904 | 1,401 |
| Freight | 5,245 | 6,947 | 2,132 | 1,011 | 731 |
| All Other | 0 | 8 | 135 | 119 | |
| Advanced Technologies Group (ATG) and Other Technology Programs | 42 | ||||
| Total | 37,281 | 31,877 | 17,455 | 11,139 | 13,000 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobility | 4,963 | 3,299 | 1,596 | 1,169 | 2,071 |
| Delivery | 1,506 | 551 | -348 | -873 | -1,372 |
| Loss on lease arrangement, net | -4 | -7 | |||
| Legal, tax, and regulatory reserve changes and settlements | -9 | -732 | -526 | 35 | -353 |
| Acquisition, financing and divestitures related expenses | -36 | -46 | -102 | -86 | |
| Restructuring and related charges | -51 | -2 | 0 | -362 | -57 |
| Freight | -64 | 0 | -130 | -227 | -217 |
| Goodwill and asset impairments/loss on sale of assets | -84 | -25 | -157 | -317 | -8 |
| Depreciation and amortization | -823 | -947 | -902 | -575 | -472 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | -1,935 | -1,793 | -1,168 | -827 | -4,596 |
| Corporate G&A and Platform Research and Development (R&D) | -2,353 | -2,137 | -1,881 | -2,136 | -2,457 |
| Accelerated lease costs related to cease-use of Right of use (ROU) assets | -6 | -5 | -102 | ||
| All Other | 0 | -11 | -461 | -251 | |
| COVID-19 response initiatives | -1 | -54 | -106 | ||
| Legacy auto insurance transfer | 0 | -103 | |||
| Mass arbitration fees, net | 14 | -43 | |||
| Gain on lease arrangement, net | 0 | 5 | |||
| Advanced Technologies Group (ATG) and Other Technology Programs | -499 | ||||
| Driver appreciation award | -299 | ||||
| Payroll tax on IPO stock-based compensation | -86 | ||||
| Total | 1,110 | -1,832 | -3,834 | -4,863 | -8,596 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $69.18 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 143.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/10/2019 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -30.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $75.80 | $87.16 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -8.7% | -20.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 33.5% | 36.3% |
| Downside Capture | 0.78 | 0.93 |
| Upside Capture | 73.10 | 101.43 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 31.9% | 57.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.70 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 1.09 | 1.11 | 1.20 |
| Up Beta | -0.01 | 0.27 | -0.22 | 0.26 | 1.16 | 1.34 |
| Down Beta | -0.35 | 0.49 | 0.27 | 0.84 | 1.12 | 1.11 |
| Up Capture | 95% | 30% | 44% | 97% | 96% | 171% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 20 | 31 | 59 | 127 | 381 |
| Down Capture | 151% | 99% | 141% | 166% | 109% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 30 | 63 | 121 | 367 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UBER | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | -11.2% | 36.0% | -0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 20.5% | 19.2% | 0.84 | 57.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 58.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | 18.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 37.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.0% | 44.0% | -0.41 | 23.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UBER | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | 3.4% | 45.2% | 0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.3% | 17.2% | 0.56 | 45.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 51.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | 6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 8.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 34.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.7% | 56.6% | 0.30 | 23.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UBER | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | 4.7% | 51.1% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.0% | 19.8% | 0.58 | 46.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 50.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 7.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 18.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 38.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.9% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 21.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/4/2026 | -5.1% | -5.7% | -3.2% |
| 11/4/2025 | -5.1% | -5.6% | -8.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | -0.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | -2.5% | 6.9% | -1.4% |
| 2/5/2025 | -7.6% | 10.3% | 7.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | -9.3% | -6.4% | -9.4% |
| 8/6/2024 | 10.9% | 18.4% | 22.4% |
| 5/8/2024 | -5.7% | -7.3% | -2.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 7.7% | 15.9% |
| Median Negative | -5.4% | -6.5% | -7.4% |
| Max Positive | 18.9% | 29.5% | 28.2% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -19.7% | -23.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026 | Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Gross Bookings | 52.00 Bil | 52.75 Bil | 53.50 Bil | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 53.00 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 0.65 | 0.69 | 0.72 | ||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 2.37 Bil | 2.42 Bil | 2.47 Bil | -1.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.46 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West, Tony | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 12182025 | 80.36 | 3,125 | 251,125 | 14,096,992 | Form |
| 2 | West, Tony | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 92.10 | 3,125 | 287,812 | 16,037,833 | Form |
| 3 | Mahendra-Rajah, Prashanth | CFO | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 94.41 | 5,500 | 519,234 | 1,919,278 | Form |
| 4 | West, Tony | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 10202025 | 93.00 | 3,125 | 290,625 | 16,074,678 | Form |
| 5 | Mahendra-Rajah, Prashanth | CFO | daughter | Buy | 10202025 | 93.00 | 5 | 465 | 465 | Form |
UBER Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 3.23x is highly attractive. The analysis indicates that while significant regulatory risks exist (Anti-Alpha), the powerful combination of a strong sector tailwind, accelerating high-margin revenue streams (Alpha Driver), and a dominant position in the core profit-driving segment creates a compelling asymmetric risk/reward profile. The market appears to be overly focused on near-term EPS misses while underappreciating the structural improvements in profitability and cash flow.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderUber exhibits high growth (~18% revenue, ~20%+ Gross Bookings) and is building a defensible moat through network effects. However, its profitability is relatively new, and the stock is sensitive to macro shifts and regulatory news, fitting the 'High-Beta' profile.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for shareholder return is the shift from a sole focus on transactional growth to leveraging Uber's 202 million Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs) with high-margin, recurring revenue streams. The rapid scaling of the advertising business (>50% YoY growth) and the increasing penetration of the Uber One membership program are structurally improving Uber's profitability profile, leading to significant free cash flow generation that outpaces revenue growth.
- Advertising business growing at over 50% YoY, now at a >$2B annualized revenue run-rate.
- Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs) grew by an accelerating 18% YoY in Q4 2025.
- Free cash flow grew to approximately $10 billion in 2025 on 18% revenue growth, demonstrating significant operating leverage.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant friction is the persistent and escalating global regulatory pressure to reclassify drivers and couriers from independent contractors to employees. A negative ruling, particularly in a large, profitable market like the US or key European countries, would fundamentally and permanently alter Uber's cost structure, severely compressing margins and challenging the long-term profitability of its Mobility and Delivery segments.
- The EU's Platform Work Directive has a transposition deadline for member states by late 2026, creating an unavoidable legal challenge in key markets like France.
- Multiple ongoing lawsuits in the US, including from the FTC and DOJ, signal heightened regulatory scrutiny.
- A February 2026 verdict finding Uber liable for a sexual assault by a driver could set a precedent for thousands of similar cases, increasing liability costs.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Mobility Gross Bookings YoY Growth | > 15% | This is the primary profit engine. Growth falling below 15% would signal a material deceleration and potential market saturation, threatening the core thesis. |
| Advertising Revenue YoY Growth | > 40% | This high-margin segment is critical to the margin expansion and free cash flow story. A slowdown here would call into question the primary 'Alpha Driver'. |
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin (% of Gross Bookings) | Stable to Increasing | This metric reflects overall profitability and operating leverage. Any sustained compression would indicate that cost pressures (driver incentives, insurance) or competition are overwhelming the benefits of scale and new revenue streams. |
Platform Monetization vs. Regulatory Headwinds
BULL VIEW
Bulls bet on accelerating, high-margin ad revenue (>50% YoY) and Uber One adoption to drive FCF growth, making regulatory costs manageable.
CORE TENSION
Can high-margin advertising and membership growth outpace the financial impact of escalating global regulatory mandates on worker reclassification?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The NEUTRAL verdict stands as accelerating Gross Bookings (+22% YoY) and MAPC growth (+18% YoY) are countered by a Q4 EPS miss and multiple high-probability regulatory risks.
BEAR VIEW
Bears hedge against driver reclassification in a key market (e.g., EU), which would permanently impair Uber's cost structure and profitability.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Next 6 Months | EU Platform Work Directive Newsflow Watch: News from key EU states (France, Germany) on specific legislation to transpose the directive into national law. |
Late April / Early May 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Mobility Gross Bookings YoY Growth. A result below 15% would confirm a material deceleration. |
Late April 2026 | Next Earnings Report (Insurance Cost Commentary) Watch: Commentary on commercial auto insurance costs impacting Take Rate or Adjusted EBITDA margins. |
Ongoing (Next 1-6 Months) | Monthly Consumer Spending Reports Watch: Retail sales and consumer credit data for services (transportation, restaurants). A negative inflection signals risk. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 6, 2025 | Q2 2025 Earnings Report Details: Uber announced its second quarter 2025 financial results, which were discussed on a conference call. The stock reaction was muted on the day of the release. | Changed Little (-0.19%) $89.39 -> $89.22 |
Sep 11, 2025 | DOJ Lawsuit for Discrimination Details: The Department of Justice sued Uber for alleged discrimination against passengers with disabilities, specifically those who use service animals or wheelchairs. | Modest 1.28% gain $94.68 -> $95.89 |
Nov 4, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Uber reported strong Q3 results with accelerating trips and bookings growth, along with record adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, exceeding expectations. | Plummeted -5.06% $99.72 -> $94.67 |
Dec 15, 2025 | FTC Lawsuit Escalation Details: The FTC, joined by 21 states, filed an amended complaint against Uber regarding deceptive billing and cancellation practices for its Uber One subscription service. | Slight -1.15% pullback $81.86 -> $80.92 |
Feb 5, 2026 | Sexual Assault Lawsuit Verdict Details: A jury ordered Uber to pay $8.5 million in a landmark trial concerning driver sexual assault, setting a potential precedent for thousands of similar cases. | Muted (-0.58%) $75.21 -> $74.77 |
Feb 4, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & CFO Transition Details: Despite missing EPS estimates ($0.71 vs $0.79) and guiding Q1 lower, the stock rose. Concurrently, Uber announced CFO Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah would be succeeded by Balaji Krishnamurthy. | Modest 1.74% gain $73.92 -> $75.21 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Volatility is moderate at 2.9x the S&P 500. While the core growth story is intact, the NEUTRAL sentiment, CONTESTED moat, and Medium visibility warrant a smaller position until regulatory risks clear.
Diversification Alternatives
ALK
SECTORALK offers exposure to a transportation recovery but avoids the specific 'gig worker' regulatory risk facing UBER. It has a more traditional, unionized labor model and asset base.
ROAD
SECTORUnlike UBER's consumer discretionary focus, ROAD is a pure-play on infrastructure spending, driven by government funding. Its vertically integrated model offers supply chain control.
Uber is evolving from a cash-burning, growth-at-all-costs ride-hailing app into a profitable, global mobility and delivery platform generating significant free cash flow, with autonomous vehicles representing the next major catalyst.
Filter all news through the lens of profitable platform growth and the path to scaling autonomous vehicle deployment.
Monthly Active Platform Consumer (MAPC) growth >15% YoY; consistent GAAP operating profitability; expansion of AV partnerships and deployment to new cities; growth in Uber One membership program; significant share buybacks.
Sustained decline in take rates; significant regulatory setbacks in major markets (e.g., driver re-classification); failure to maintain market share against Lyft (Mobility) and DoorDash (Delivery); major safety incidents involving AVs on the platform.
Short-term fluctuations in driver supply; quarterly changes in sales and marketing spend; competitor announcements of new features without proven market traction; minor acquisitions in non-core areas.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the company's ability to demonstrate sustained, profitable growth and generate substantial free cash flow ($9.8 billion in FY2025), shifting its narrative from a speculative tech venture to a durable cash-generating platform. [25] This is amplified by the strategic push into autonomous vehicles, which CEO Dara Khosrowshahi frames as a 'multi-trillion-dollar opportunity' for Uber. [27]
Ride-Hailing (Mobility)
$32.8B TTM (57% of Total) · 29% MarginWhat It Is
On-demand ride-hailing services including UberX, Uber Green, Uber Comfort, Uber Pool, and Black.
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay per trip for convenient, on-demand transportation. The primary value is speed, reliability, and ease of payment compared to traditional taxis. There are no significant named customers due to the highly fragmented consumer base.
Competition
Food & Goods Delivery (Delivery)
$19.6B TTM (34% of Total) · 19% MarginWhat It Is
On-demand food delivery from restaurants (Uber Eats) and delivery from grocery, convenience, and alcohol stores.
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay delivery fees and restaurants pay a commission for access to Uber's large user base and delivery network, expanding their customer reach without needing their own driver fleet.
Competition
Logistics (Freight)
$5.1B TTM (9% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
A logistics platform that connects shippers with carriers, offering services like full truckload, less-than-truckload, and power-only capacity.
Who Pays & How
Shippers pay to book freight transportation. They use the platform for price transparency and access to a large, digitally-managed network of carriers.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.