RXO (RXO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $13.92 | Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
RXO (RXO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $13.92Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -88% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 70x |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.2% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. | Key risksRXO key risks include [1] challenges successfully integrating the Coyote Logistics acquisition and realizing expected synergies and [2] ongoing legal inquiries regarding alleged false statements and potential breaches of federal securities laws. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -88% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 70x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.2% |
| Key risksRXO key risks include [1] challenges successfully integrating the Coyote Logistics acquisition and realizing expected synergies and [2] ongoing legal inquiries regarding alleged false statements and potential breaches of federal securities laws. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RXO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the -14.9% movement in RXO stock for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. RXO missed analyst consensus estimates for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) in its Third Quarter 2025 earnings report on November 6, 2025. The company reported an EPS of $0.01, falling short of the consensus estimate, which ranged from $0.03 to $0.04.
2. The company provided a weaker-than-expected Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the Fourth Quarter 2025. RXO's Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance was set between $20 million and $30 million, which was significantly below analyst estimates of $43.64 million, signaling a challenging outlook.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RXO Return | � | � | � | 35% | 2% | -39% | � |
| Peers Return | 23% | 29% | -15% | 41% | 13% | 13% | 145% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RXO Win Rate | � | � | 0% | 58% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 62% | 42% | 57% | 52% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RXO Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -4% | -19% | -56% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -4% | -27% | -7% | -16% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CHRW, XPO, JBHT, SNDR, LSTR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RXO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 464 days |
Compare to XPO, R, WERN, ODFL, JBHT
In The Past
RXO's stock fell -26.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/29/2023. A -26.6% loss requires a 36.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RXO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for RXO
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 144.68 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.1 |
| Rev LTM | 7,004 |
| Op Inc LTM | 451 |
| FCF LTM | 215 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 174 |
| CFO LTM | 764 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 753 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.1 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 20.2 |
| P/E | 28.7 |
| P/CFO | 17.1 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 18.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 13.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 18.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -59.5% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -23.1% | -29.9% | -19.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | -4.3% | 0.7% | 6.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | -5.6% | 20.8% | 15.5% |
| 2/5/2025 | -14.9% | -17.3% | -19.1% |
| 11/7/2024 | -10.0% | -12.7% | -10.5% |
| 8/7/2024 | -2.5% | -8.6% | -8.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% |
| 2/8/2024 | -7.7% | -2.9% | -7.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| # Negative | 9 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 6.0% | 7.0% | 11.1% |
| Median Negative | -7.7% | -9.4% | -12.3% |
| Max Positive | 8.6% | 20.8% | 15.7% |
| Max Negative | -23.1% | -29.9% | -19.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11302022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 10132022 | 10-12B/A 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |