Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -88%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 70x
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.2%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.
  Key risks
RXO key risks include [1] challenges successfully integrating the Coyote Logistics acquisition and realizing expected synergies and [2] ongoing legal inquiries regarding alleged false statements and potential breaches of federal securities laws.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -88%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 70x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.2%
6 Key risks
RXO key risks include [1] challenges successfully integrating the Coyote Logistics acquisition and realizing expected synergies and [2] ongoing legal inquiries regarding alleged false statements and potential breaches of federal securities laws.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RXO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the -14.9% movement in RXO stock for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. RXO missed analyst consensus estimates for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) in its Third Quarter 2025 earnings report on November 6, 2025. The company reported an EPS of $0.01, falling short of the consensus estimate, which ranged from $0.03 to $0.04.

2. The company provided a weaker-than-expected Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the Fourth Quarter 2025. RXO's Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance was set between $20 million and $30 million, which was significantly below analyst estimates of $43.64 million, signaling a challenging outlook.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RXO Return35%2%-39%
Peers Return23%29%-15%41%13%13%145%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RXO Win Rate0%58%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate58%62%42%57%52%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RXO Max Drawdown-4%-19%-56% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-4%-27%-7%-16%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CHRW, XPO, JBHT, SNDR, LSTR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRXOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven44 days464 days

Compare to XPO, R, WERN, ODFL, JBHT


In The Past

RXO's stock fell -26.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/29/2023. A -26.6% loss requires a 36.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About RXO (RXO)

Better Bets than RXO (RXO)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RXO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.6%5.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.6%5.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for RXO

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RXOCHRWXPOJBHTSNDRLSTRMedian
NameRXO C.H. Rob.XPO JB Hunt .Schneide.Landstar. 
Mkt Price13.89160.10145.10194.1026.75144.26144.68
Mkt Cap2.319.217.118.74.75.011.1
Rev LTM5,94016,5058,06712,0495,6144,7797,004
Op Inc LTM11797706826175195451
FCF LTM-18807232790114199215
FCF 3Y Avg9794-20638832316174
CFO LTM378779491,610651213764
CFO 3Y Avg668758081,647699340753

Growth & Margins

RXOCHRWXPOJBHTSNDRLSTRMedian
NameRXO C.H. Rob.XPO JB Hunt .Schneide.Landstar. 
Rev Chg LTM53.8%-7.1%-0.3%-1.6%5.5%-0.7%-0.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.0%-13.4%38.4%-6.3%-5.0%-14.1%-5.6%
Rev Chg Q36.6%-10.9%2.8%-0.5%10.4%-0.7%1.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.9%-3.0%0.7%-0.1%2.5%-0.2%0.3%
Op Mgn LTM0.2%4.8%8.8%6.9%3.1%4.1%4.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg1.2%3.8%8.0%7.2%4.4%5.3%4.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%0.4%0.1%0.2%-0.2%-0.1%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM0.6%5.3%11.8%13.4%11.6%4.5%8.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg1.5%4.9%10.1%13.1%12.6%6.5%8.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.3%4.9%2.9%6.6%2.0%4.2%3.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.3%4.5%-2.6%3.2%0.6%6.0%1.9%

Valuation

RXOCHRWXPOJBHTSNDRLSTRMedian
NameRXO C.H. Rob.XPO JB Hunt .Schneide.Landstar. 
Mkt Cap2.319.217.118.74.75.011.1
P/S0.41.01.91.10.70.90.9
P/EBIT-41.219.922.915.520.621.720.2
P/E-32.826.545.922.532.530.928.7
P/CFO70.118.116.18.05.719.917.1
Total Yield-3.0%5.7%2.2%5.8%4.9%6.2%5.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.9%0.0%1.3%1.8%2.9%1.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.6%6.7%-1.8%2.8%0.9%5.4%1.8%
D/E0.30.10.30.10.10.00.1
Net D/E0.30.10.20.10.1-0.10.1

Returns

RXOCHRWXPOJBHTSNDRLSTRMedian
NameRXO C.H. Rob.XPO JB Hunt .Schneide.Landstar. 
1M Rtn31.3%5.3%13.4%21.1%29.3%16.7%18.9%
3M Rtn-17.9%19.0%11.8%44.7%15.3%15.2%15.2%
6M Rtn-10.2%72.9%20.3%40.4%12.7%5.9%16.5%
12M Rtn-47.6%50.3%-8.1%10.7%-9.7%-17.7%-8.9%
3Y Rtn-14.6%83.5%300.6%11.9%15.0%-9.0%13.5%
1M Excs Rtn30.6%4.6%12.7%20.4%28.6%16.0%18.2%
3M Excs Rtn-21.8%15.9%8.9%42.7%15.3%12.9%14.1%
6M Excs Rtn-22.5%60.5%7.9%28.1%0.3%-6.5%4.1%
12M Excs Rtn-60.2%35.8%-18.2%-1.9%-23.5%-31.4%-20.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-87.9%8.4%222.3%-61.4%-57.5%-79.3%-59.5%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil202420232022
Truck brokerage2,3582,9292,749
Last mile1,0141,0611,016
Managed transportation690523603
Eliminations-135-139-113
Freight forwarding 422434
Total3,9274,7964,689


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,838,708
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-5.4%
Average Daily Volume2,090,939
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.66
Basic Shares Quantity168,578,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/2025-23.1%-29.9%-19.9%
8/7/2025-4.3%0.7%6.9%
5/7/2025-5.6%20.8%15.5%
2/5/2025-14.9%-17.3%-19.1%
11/7/2024-10.0%-12.7%-10.5%
8/7/2024-2.5%-8.6%-8.7%
5/2/20245.9%7.7%7.4%
2/8/2024-7.7%-2.9%-7.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive356
# Negative976
Median Positive6.0%7.0%11.1%
Median Negative-7.7%-9.4%-12.3%
Max Positive8.6%20.8%15.7%
Max Negative-23.1%-29.9%-19.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221130202210-Q 9/30/2022
123120211013202210-12B/A 12/31/2021