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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -82%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -96%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 70x
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.2%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -82%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -96%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 70x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RXO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. RXO's Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates and Provided Weak Guidance.

On November 6, 2025, RXO reported a third-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.01, significantly missing the consensus estimate of $0.03. Revenue for the quarter also came in slightly below analysts' expectations at $1.42 billion, compared to an anticipated $1.44 billion. Furthermore, the company's adjusted EBITDA guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 was set at a midpoint of $25 million, which was substantially lower than analyst estimates of $43.64 million. This earnings miss and disappointing outlook led to a significant drop in the stock price, with shares tumbling 12.51% following the announcement. 2. Persistent Weakness and Softness in the Freight Market Continued to Pressure Performance.

Throughout the period, RXO operated within a prolonged soft freight market. The company's third-quarter results highlighted that market conditions tightened, and there was a further weakening of demand across the business, particularly with a 11% year-over-year decline in full truckload volume. The freight market forecast in November 2025 also indicated a third consecutive quarter of decelerating spot rate growth, suggesting ongoing challenges in the trucking sector. S&P Global Ratings revised RXO's outlook to negative on December 1, 2025, specifically citing persistently subdued freight demand expected to continue through much of 2026. 3. Several Analysts Issued Negative Rating Revisions and Reduced Price Targets for RXO.

Following the Q3 earnings report and market conditions, multiple investment firms revised their ratings and price targets for RXO. On November 6, 2025, Zacks Research downgraded RXO from a "hold" to a "strong sell." The next day, Susquehanna lowered its target price from $11.00 to $10.00 and maintained a "negative" rating. Truist Financial also reduced its price objective from $22.00 to $20.00, while UBS decreased its price target from $17 to $15. Earlier in October, Goldman Sachs Group also cut its target price for RXO from $17.00 to $15.00. 4. Regulatory Pressures and Fragility in Trucking Capacity Introduced Further Uncertainty.

New regulatory developments added to the challenges faced by RXO. An announcement in October 2025 detailed a new 25% U.S. tariff on imported medium and heavy-duty trucks, set to be effective in November 2025, which introduced uncertainty into the trucking and logistics sector's cost structures. Furthermore, ongoing regulatory enforcement and carrier attrition contributed to fragility in the truckload capacity environment, with expectations of significant freight rate volatility in 2026. The implementation of a new FMCSA final rule concerning non-domiciled Commercial Driver's Licenses (CDLs) is also anticipated to further reduce available capacity. 5. The Company Continued to Report GAAP Net Losses.

RXO's financial performance included continued GAAP net losses. The company reported a GAAP net loss of $9 million for the second quarter of 2025. This trend continued into the third quarter of 2025, with RXO reporting a GAAP net loss of $14 million. These recurring losses, despite revenue growth, highlighted ongoing profitability challenges in a difficult market environment.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RXO Return---35%2%-44%-22%
Peers Return30%41%-15%54%10%-3%156%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RXO Win Rate--0%58%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate60%68%40%62%53%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RXO Max Drawdown----4%-19%-56% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-3%-30%-7%-14%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XPO, R, WERN, ODFL, JBHT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRXOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven44 days464 days

Compare to XPO, R, WERN, ODFL, JBHT


In The Past

RXO's stock fell -26.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/29/2023. A -26.6% loss requires a 36.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About RXO (RXO)

Better Bets than RXO (RXO)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RXO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for RXO

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RXOXPORWERNODFLJBHTMedian
NameRXO XPO Ryder Sy.Werner E.Old Domi.JB Hunt . 
Mkt Price14.28139.76178.4928.79150.94187.92145.35
Mkt Cap2.416.57.31.731.718.111.9
Rev LTM5,9408,06712,7082,9915,57512,0497,004
Op Inc LTM117061,112541,391826766
FCF LTM-18232-88-55921790107
FCF 3Y Avg9-206-458-88827388-40
CFO LTM379492,4031911,4611,6101,205
CFO 3Y Avg668082,3293471,5501,6471,179

Growth & Margins

RXOXPORWERNODFLJBHTMedian
NameRXO XPO Ryder Sy.Werner E.Old Domi.JB Hunt . 
Rev Chg LTM53.8%-0.3%1.3%-3.4%-5.9%-1.6%-0.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.0%38.4%2.0%-2.1%-3.3%-6.3%-0.0%
Rev Chg Q36.6%2.8%-0.3%3.5%-4.3%-0.5%1.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.9%0.7%-0.1%0.9%-1.1%-0.1%0.3%
Op Mgn LTM0.2%8.8%8.8%1.8%24.9%6.9%7.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg1.2%8.0%8.8%3.9%26.9%7.2%7.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%0.1%0.0%-1.0%-0.4%0.2%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM0.6%11.8%18.9%6.4%26.2%13.4%12.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg1.5%10.1%18.7%10.9%26.8%13.1%12.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.3%2.9%-0.7%-1.8%16.5%6.6%1.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.3%-2.6%-3.7%-2.7%14.3%3.2%-1.2%

Valuation

RXOXPORWERNODFLJBHTMedian
NameRXO XPO Ryder Sy.Werner E.Old Domi.JB Hunt . 
Mkt Cap2.416.57.31.731.718.111.9
P/S0.41.90.60.55.31.10.8
P/EBIT-41.222.97.020.721.215.518.1
P/E-32.845.915.362.327.922.525.2
P/CFO70.116.13.28.320.28.012.2
Total Yield-3.0%2.2%8.4%3.8%4.4%5.8%4.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%1.9%2.2%0.8%1.3%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.6%-1.8%-8.5%-4.0%2.2%2.8%-0.6%
D/E0.30.31.20.50.00.10.3
Net D/E0.30.21.10.40.00.10.3

Returns

RXOXPORWERNODFLJBHTMedian
NameRXO XPO Ryder Sy.Werner E.Old Domi.JB Hunt . 
1M Rtn-19.0%1.1%6.5%12.1%10.0%10.7%8.3%
3M Rtn-10.8%11.1%-3.5%1.6%2.1%29.6%1.9%
6M Rtn-10.8%21.6%21.4%7.6%-6.2%34.9%14.5%
12M Rtn-50.8%-8.9%9.6%-26.9%-30.4%2.8%-17.9%
3Y Rtn-23.6%266.4%112.3%-32.0%1.5%5.9%3.7%
1M Excs Rtn-18.9%1.1%6.6%12.1%10.0%10.7%8.3%
3M Excs Rtn-18.1%1.5%-10.2%-4.9%-3.7%24.3%-4.3%
6M Excs Rtn-25.5%6.9%6.6%-7.1%-20.9%20.2%-0.3%
12M Excs Rtn-66.2%-21.8%-5.7%-41.8%-45.9%-13.0%-31.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-96.4%206.7%35.1%-102.3%-66.2%-62.9%-64.6%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12,508,319
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.8%
Average Daily Volume3,078,498
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.06
Basic Shares Quantity168,578,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221130202210-Q 9/30/2022
123120211013202210-12B/A 12/31/2021