RXO (RXO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.49 | Market Cap: $2.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
RXO (RXO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.49Market Cap: $2.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -82%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -96% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 70x |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.2% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -82%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -96% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 70x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RXO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. RXO's Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates and Provided Weak Guidance.
On November 6, 2025, RXO reported a third-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.01, significantly missing the consensus estimate of $0.03. Revenue for the quarter also came in slightly below analysts' expectations at $1.42 billion, compared to an anticipated $1.44 billion. Furthermore, the company's adjusted EBITDA guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 was set at a midpoint of $25 million, which was substantially lower than analyst estimates of $43.64 million. This earnings miss and disappointing outlook led to a significant drop in the stock price, with shares tumbling 12.51% following the announcement.
2. Persistent Weakness and Softness in the Freight Market Continued to Pressure Performance.
Throughout the period, RXO operated within a prolonged soft freight market. The company's third-quarter results highlighted that market conditions tightened, and there was a further weakening of demand across the business, particularly with a 11% year-over-year decline in full truckload volume. The freight market forecast in November 2025 also indicated a third consecutive quarter of decelerating spot rate growth, suggesting ongoing challenges in the trucking sector. S&P Global Ratings revised RXO's outlook to negative on December 1, 2025, specifically citing persistently subdued freight demand expected to continue through much of 2026.
3. Several Analysts Issued Negative Rating Revisions and Reduced Price Targets for RXO.
Following the Q3 earnings report and market conditions, multiple investment firms revised their ratings and price targets for RXO. On November 6, 2025, Zacks Research downgraded RXO from a "hold" to a "strong sell." The next day, Susquehanna lowered its target price from $11.00 to $10.00 and maintained a "negative" rating. Truist Financial also reduced its price objective from $22.00 to $20.00, while UBS decreased its price target from $17 to $15. Earlier in October, Goldman Sachs Group also cut its target price for RXO from $17.00 to $15.00.
4. Regulatory Pressures and Fragility in Trucking Capacity Introduced Further Uncertainty.
New regulatory developments added to the challenges faced by RXO. An announcement in October 2025 detailed a new 25% U.S. tariff on imported medium and heavy-duty trucks, set to be effective in November 2025, which introduced uncertainty into the trucking and logistics sector's cost structures. Furthermore, ongoing regulatory enforcement and carrier attrition contributed to fragility in the truckload capacity environment, with expectations of significant freight rate volatility in 2026. The implementation of a new FMCSA final rule concerning non-domiciled Commercial Driver's Licenses (CDLs) is also anticipated to further reduce available capacity.
5. The Company Continued to Report GAAP Net Losses.
RXO's financial performance included continued GAAP net losses. The company reported a GAAP net loss of $9 million for the second quarter of 2025. This trend continued into the third quarter of 2025, with RXO reporting a GAAP net loss of $14 million. These recurring losses, despite revenue growth, highlighted ongoing profitability challenges in a difficult market environment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RXO Return | - | - | - | 35% | 2% | -44% | -22% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 41% | -15% | 54% | 10% | -3% | 156% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RXO Win Rate | - | - | 0% | 58% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 68% | 40% | 62% | 53% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RXO Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -4% | -19% | -56% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -3% | -30% | -7% | -14% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XPO, R, WERN, ODFL, JBHT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RXO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 464 days |
Compare to XPO, R, WERN, ODFL, JBHT
In The Past
RXO's stock fell -26.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/29/2023. A -26.6% loss requires a 36.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| RXO Stock Rockets 36% With 8-Day Winning Streak | Notification | ||
| null | |||
| Does RXO Stock Lead the Pack? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than RXO Stock: Pay Less Than RXO To Get More From NVDA, AVGO | |||
| Why RXO Stock Moved: RXO Stock Has Lost 45% Since 2024 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| RXO Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| RXO (RXO) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| RXO (RXO) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| RXO (RXO) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| RXO (RXO) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| RXO Stock 8-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 36% | December 4th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RXO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for RXO
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 145.35 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.9 |
| Rev LTM | 7,004 |
| Op Inc LTM | 766 |
| FCF LTM | 107 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -40 |
| CFO LTM | 1,205 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,179 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.9 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 18.1 |
| P/E | 25.2 |
| P/CFO | 12.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.6% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -17.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 3.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -31.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -64.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11302022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 10132022 | 10-12B/A 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |