Tearsheet

Two Harbors Investment (TWO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.18 | Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs

Two Harbors Investment (TWO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.18
Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Mortgage REITs

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 255%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 54%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -60%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%
2 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 18%
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -45%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, AI in Financial Services, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Real Estate Data Analytics, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 255%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -60%
2 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 18%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, AI in Financial Services, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Real Estate Data Analytics, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 54%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%
8 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -45%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TWO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings and Litigation Settlement Impact: Two Harbors Investment Corp reported a net loss of US$127.92 million for the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to a US$175.1 million litigation settlement expense (net of prior accrual). This significant expense led to a negative total economic return of 6.3% including the charge, though it would have been a positive 7.6% excluding it. The settlement, totaling $375 million, aimed to provide clarity but also reduced the company's capital base.

2. Dividend Reduction and Book Value Concerns: Around August 20, 2025, Two Harbors Investment Corp announced a reduction in its dividend. This action followed a considerable 17.2% decrease in book value per share in the second quarter of 2025, influenced by a negative legal ruling and hedging strategies. As of its Q3 2025 report, the company's common stock was trading at an 11% discount to book value, reflecting investor concerns about its financial position.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TWO Return-52%0%-23%2%-3%-2%-64%
Peers Return-14%10%-19%2%6%2%-15%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TWO Win Rate58%58%42%42%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate53%57%50%45%55%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TWO Max Drawdown-83%-5%-40%-28%-10%-10% 
Peers Max Drawdown-64%-6%-34%-22%-11%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTWOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-69.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven228.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-84.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven554.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven27.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY


In The Past

Two Harbors Investment's stock fell -69.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/22/2021. A -69.5% loss requires a 228.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Two Harbors Investment (TWO)

Better Bets than Two Harbors Investment (TWO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TWO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Two Harbors Investment

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TWODXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameTwo Harb.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Price10.2013.898.192.784.7322.829.20
Mkt Cap1.11.90.60.50.115.00.8
Rev LTM395230722271,703151
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-17812215947251,953140
FCF 3Y Avg647119632951,260133
CFO LTM-4912215947252,857140
CFO 3Y Avg2517119632951,976223

Growth & Margins

TWODXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameTwo Harb.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Rev Chg LTM254.9%87.1%-29.9%-73.3%-3.5%473.5%41.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.5%63.4%241.0%-52.8%2.5%143.3%33.0%
Rev Chg Q144.1%309.0%27.8%-29.1%-9.2%637.1%85.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM329.7%113.8%21.1%-45.4%-2.2%81.6%51.4%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM-12.5%52.8%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%167.8%119.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-77.6%790.7%851.6%70.9%-434.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-45.2%52.8%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%114.7%92.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-77.6%790.7%851.6%70.8%-434.2%

Valuation

TWODXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameTwo Harb.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Cap1.11.90.60.50.115.00.8
P/S2.67.37.129.38.87.87.5
P/EBIT-------
P/E-5.49.09.6-2.011.98.99.0
P/CFO-20.913.73.21.312.44.63.9
Total Yield-0.7%11.1%10.4%-27.7%16.8%11.3%10.7%
Dividend Yield17.7%0.0%0.0%21.4%8.4%0.0%4.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.2%6.8%40.1%36.2%8.5%11.4%9.9%
D/E1.30.00.06.00.22.20.8
Net D/E0.5-0.3-0.15.70.22.20.4

Returns

TWODXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameTwo Harb.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
1M Rtn5.8%5.9%8.6%-4.1%-4.8%7.1%5.9%
3M Rtn5.0%14.6%8.1%-32.2%-10.4%9.9%6.6%
6M Rtn3.5%24.9%19.5%-29.7%-3.4%29.0%11.5%
12M Rtn0.1%30.4%19.1%-56.6%-6.1%33.1%9.6%
3Y Rtn-5.7%60.5%3.7%-68.6%5.7%58.4%4.7%
1M Excs Rtn5.8%6.0%8.7%-4.1%-4.8%7.2%5.9%
3M Excs Rtn-3.8%7.8%2.0%-38.0%-15.6%3.0%-0.9%
6M Excs Rtn-11.2%10.1%4.8%-44.5%-18.1%14.3%-3.2%
12M Excs Rtn-13.3%15.8%4.5%-70.9%-17.7%18.2%-4.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-75.6%-8.7%-65.4%-141.0%-64.9%-8.9%-65.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment31407255-1,5621,125
Total31407255-1,5621,125


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,850,119
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-7.3%
Average Daily Volume1,335,247
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.38
Basic Shares Quantity104,144,560
Short % of Basic Shares9.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021