Two Harbors Investment (TWO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.18 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
Two Harbors Investment (TWO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.18Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 255% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 54% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -60% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11% | |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 18% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -45% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, AI in Financial Services, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Real Estate Data Analytics, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 255% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -60% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 18% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, AI in Financial Services, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Real Estate Data Analytics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 54% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -45% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TWO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings and Litigation Settlement Impact: Two Harbors Investment Corp reported a net loss of US$127.92 million for the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to a US$175.1 million litigation settlement expense (net of prior accrual). This significant expense led to a negative total economic return of 6.3% including the charge, though it would have been a positive 7.6% excluding it. The settlement, totaling $375 million, aimed to provide clarity but also reduced the company's capital base.
2. Dividend Reduction and Book Value Concerns: Around August 20, 2025, Two Harbors Investment Corp announced a reduction in its dividend. This action followed a considerable 17.2% decrease in book value per share in the second quarter of 2025, influenced by a negative legal ruling and hedging strategies. As of its Q3 2025 report, the company's common stock was trading at an 11% discount to book value, reflecting investor concerns about its financial position.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TWO Return | -52% | 0% | -23% | 2% | -3% | -2% | -64% |
| Peers Return | -14% | 10% | -19% | 2% | 6% | 2% | -15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TWO Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 57% | 50% | 45% | 55% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TWO Max Drawdown | -83% | -5% | -40% | -28% | -10% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -64% | -6% | -34% | -22% | -11% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TWO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 228.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -84.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 554.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY
In The Past
Two Harbors Investment's stock fell -69.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/22/2021. A -69.5% loss requires a 228.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TWO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Two Harbors Investment
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 9.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| Rev LTM | 151 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 140 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 133 |
| CFO LTM | 140 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 223 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 41.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 33.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 85.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 51.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 119.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 434.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 92.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 434.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/CFO | 3.9 |
| Total Yield | 10.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 4.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.1% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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