Titan International (TWI)
Market Price (5/23/2026): $7.34 | Market Cap: $470.3 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Titan International (TWI)
Market Price (5/23/2026): $7.34Market Cap: $470.3 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, EV Manufacturing, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 120% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 121x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.6% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% Key risksTWI key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, EV Manufacturing, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 120% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 121x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.6% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% |
| Key risksTWI key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Titan International reported a significant earnings miss and a negative operating margin in Q1 2026. The company posted an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.38, missing the consensus estimate of $0.01 by $0.39. Concurrently, the operating margin turned negative, falling to -2.7% from 2.5% in the same quarter last year, reflecting increased costs and a deterioration in profitability.
2. The company incurred substantial restructuring and impairment charges in Q1 2026. Titan International reported $25.1 million in restructuring and impairment expenses, primarily related to the planned closure of its Jackson, Tennessee manufacturing facility. These charges were a primary driver of the $24.3 million net loss for the quarter.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.0% change in TWI stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.54 | 7.35 | -23.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,802 | 1,843 | 2.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.3 | -24.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 64 | 64 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TWI | -23.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.1% | 53.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.1% | 62.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.6% change in TWI stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.55 | 7.35 | -2.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,783 | 1,843 | 3.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.3 | -5.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 64 | 64 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TWI | -2.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 46.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 11.5% | 59.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.0% change in TWI stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 1.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.35 | 7.35 | 0.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,854 | 1,843 | -0.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 63 | 64 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TWI | 0.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 36.0% | 42.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 32.7% | 50.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.7% change in TWI stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.76 | 7.35 | -24.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,169 | 1,843 | -15.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.3 | -9.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 63 | 64 | -1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TWI | -24.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.3% | 41.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 79.6% | 51.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TWI Return | 126% | 40% | -3% | -54% | 15% | -6% | 52% |
| Peers Return | 43% | 3% | 18% | -1% | 14% | 9% | 113% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TWI Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 67% | 17% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 50% | 42% | 52% | 48% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TWI Max Drawdown | -41% | -41% | -45% | -57% | -34% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -38% | -23% | -27% | -31% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GT, CSL, CAT, DE, AGCO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TWI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -14.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -51.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 115 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 776 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -71.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 250.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 207 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Titan International's stock fell -31.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 45.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | TWI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -51.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 115 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 776 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -71.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 250.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 207 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -81.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 435.0% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2242 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -48.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 206 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 725.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 746 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.5% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Titan International's stock fell -31.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 45.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Titan International (TWI)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe Titan International (TWI):
The Goodyear or Michelin for giant farm tractors and construction equipment.
The Cummins of wheels, tires, and undercarriage systems for the agriculture and construction industries.
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- Agricultural Wheels, Tires, and Undercarriage Systems: Manufactures rims, wheels, tires, and undercarriage systems specifically for various agricultural equipment.
- Earthmoving/Construction Wheels, Tires, and Undercarriage Systems: Produces rims, wheels, tires, and undercarriage systems for off-the-road earthmoving, mining, military, construction, and forestry equipment.
- Light Truck and Bias Tires: Offers a range of bias and light truck tires for various applications.
- Specialty Products: Provides tires for ATVs, turf, and golf carts, along with specialty items such as train brakes.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Titan International (TWI) primarily sells its products to other companies, specifically original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and to the aftermarket through independent distributors and equipment dealers.
Based on the types of off-highway vehicles and equipment for which Titan International supplies wheels, tires, and undercarriage systems and components, its major customers are inferred to be leading global manufacturers in the agricultural, earthmoving, construction, and mining industries. While the provided background description does not list specific customer names, the following are examples of major OEMs that operate in the sectors TWI serves:
- Deere & Company (NYSE: DE): A leading global manufacturer of agricultural and construction equipment, including tractors, combines, and various construction machinery.
- Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT): The world's largest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, including earthmoving machinery, haul trucks, and excavators.
- CNH Industrial N.V. (NYSE: CNHI): A global capital goods company that designs, produces, and sells agricultural and construction equipment under brands such as Case IH, New Holland Agriculture, and Case Construction Equipment.
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Paul Reitz, Chief Executive Officer and President
Paul Reitz joined Titan International in 2010 as Chief Financial Officer, was promoted to President in February 2014, and became Chief Executive Officer in January 2017. Before his tenure at Titan, Mr. Reitz held financial and marketing leadership positions with Carmike Cinemas, where he was Chief Accounting Officer, Yell Group PLC, McLeodUSA Publishing, and Deloitte and Touche LLP. Under his leadership, Titan has focused on operational discipline, product innovation, and strategic acquisitions, including The Carlstar Group in 2024.
Tony Eheli, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Tony Eheli was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Titan International effective December 4, 2025. He previously served as the company's Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer since March 2021. As CFO, Mr. Eheli is responsible for leading Titan's global financial organization, including global financial reporting, audit oversight, and operational controls. Prior to joining Titan in March 2021, he held several finance leadership roles at Danaher Corporation from 2011 to 2021 and gained experience in roles of increasing responsibility at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).
David Martin, Senior Vice President and Chief Transformation Officer
David Martin was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Transformation Officer (SVP & CTO) for Titan International effective December 4, 2025. In this newly created role, Mr. Martin leads enterprise-wide transformation initiatives, focusing on strategic alignment, operational agility, IT alignment, AI adoption, human capital, and risk management functions. He previously served as the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Titan International since June 2018. His leadership as CFO was instrumental in strengthening Titan's financial foundation. Mr. Martin began his career at BDO LLP from 1989 to 1993.
Jim Pach, Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer
Jim Pach was appointed Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer (VP & CAO) of Titan International, Inc. effective December 4, 2025. He joined Titan in March 2020 as Corporate Controller. In his current role, Mr. Pach is responsible for Titan's global financial reporting, audit oversight, and operational controls, bringing expertise in financial compliance and internal controls. Before joining Titan, he accumulated 15 years of experience in senior accounting roles at various public companies and increasing responsibilities at PricewaterhouseCoopers and Grant Thornton.
Max R. Narancich, Chief Operating Officer, Carlstar
Max Narancich serves as the Chief Operating Officer of The Carlstar Group, having joined Titan in February 2024 following Titan's acquisition of Carlstar. Mr. Narancich had been with The Carlstar Group since 2011, serving as its Chief Financial Officer from 2016 until the acquisition in 2024. Prior to becoming CFO, he held positions as Director of Financial Planning and Analysis and Vice President of Operational Finance at Carlstar. He is responsible for overseeing the development of strategic and tactical plans, capital budgeting, and financial management for The Carlstar Group.
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Key Risks to Titan International (TWI)
Titan International (NYSE: TWI) faces several key risks to its business operations, primarily stemming from the cyclical nature of its target markets, the volatile global trade environment, and fluctuations in commodity prices. 1. **Exposure to Cyclical End Markets:** As a manufacturer of wheels, tires, and undercarriage systems for agricultural, earthmoving/construction, and consumer off-highway vehicles, Titan International is highly susceptible to the inherent cyclicality of these industries. Economic downturns, fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices, and changes in construction activity directly impact demand for new equipment and aftermarket parts, leading to potential revenue and profitability swings. 2. **Tariffs and Trade Policy Volatility:** The company operates within a "highly dynamic U.S. and global tariff environment," including the impact of "new 'global tariff' measures." This evolving landscape introduces significant financial uncertainty, affecting Titan International's cost of goods, pricing strategies, and competitiveness in international markets. 3. **Commodity Price Volatility and Supply Chain Risks:** Titan International's manufacturing processes rely heavily on key raw materials such as steel and rubber. The company's dependence on these commodities and a limited number of suppliers exposes it to price volatility, which can impact production costs and profit margins. Potential disruptions in the supply chain could also affect production schedules and delivery capabilities.AI Analysis | Feedback
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Titan International, Inc. (TWI) operates in global markets for off-highway wheels, tires, and undercarriage systems. The addressable markets for its main products and services are sized as follows:
Tires
- Global Off-Highway Tire Market: This market, which encompasses construction, mining, and agriculture, was valued at approximately USD 19.3 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 34.1 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% from 2024 to 2032. Another estimate places the global off-road tires market at USD 19.85 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 30.66 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 6.4%.
- Global Agricultural Tire Market: This market was valued at USD 7.4 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 15.4 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 7.6% from 2023 to 2033. Other estimates for the global agricultural tires market include USD 8.39 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 12.6 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 4.15% from 2025 to 2033. It was also estimated at USD 8.56 billion in 2025, with a projected growth to USD 11.46 billion by 2031 at a 4.98% CAGR.
- Global Earthmoving Equipment Tires Market: The market size was USD 12.86 billion in 2023 and is likely to reach USD 18.35 billion by 2032, expanding at a CAGR of 4.03% during 2024–2032. Another report indicated the global earthmoving equipment tires market size was USD 11.18 billion in 2022 and is forecasted to reach USD 14.82 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.10% from 2023 to 2030.
- Global Mining Equipment Tire Market: This market was valued at approximately USD 4.5 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach around USD 7.9 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 6.5%. Another source reported the global mining equipment tire market size was USD 5.022 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 5.395 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 0.9% during the forecast period.
- Global Construction Equipment Tire Market: This market was estimated at USD 4.29 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 7.17 billion in 2035, at a CAGR of 5.7% from 2026 to 2035. Another valuation puts the global market at US$6.1 billion in 2024, projected to reach US$8.5 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 5.6% from 2024 to 2030.
- Global Specialty Tire Market: This market, which includes agriculture, construction & mining, and off-roading, was valued at USD 12.9 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 19.4 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.3% from 2023 to 2032.
- Global Turf and Golf Cart Tires Market: This market is projected to expand from USD 0.61 billion in 2026 to USD 1.74 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 5%.
Wheels
- Global Off-Highway Wheels Market: This market, including agriculture, construction, material handling, and mining segments, was valued at USD 1.5562 billion in 2022. It is expected to reach USD 2.5558 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 6.12% during the forecast period (2024–2032).
- Global Construction Equipment Wheels Market: This market was valued at USD 7.26 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 12 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of around 4.6% from 2025 to 2035. Another report valued the global construction machinery wheels market at US$1.331 billion in 2025, anticipated to reach US$1.875 billion by 2032, witnessing a CAGR of 4.9% from 2026 to 2032.
- Global Mining Equipment Wheels Market: This market was valued at US$5.487 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach US$7.337 billion by 2032, witnessing a CAGR of 4.3% during the forecast period 2026-2032. Another source valued the global mining equipment wheels market at US$5.419 billion in 2024 and forecasts it to reach USD 7.226 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 4.2% during the review period.
- Global Heavy Equipment Wheels Market (includes Construction, Mining, Agriculture): This market was valued at USD 6.87 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 8.31 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 2.4% during the forecast period 2026 to 2032.
Undercarriage Systems and Components
- Global Undercarriage Systems Market: This market size was USD 21.80 billion in 2019 and is projected to grow to USD 29.26 billion in 2032 at a CAGR of 2.3% during the 2020-2032 period. Another estimate states the market size was USD 7.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 9.9 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 3.42% during 2025-2033. A further report shows the global undercarriage systems market was valued at USD 970 million in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1.217 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 3.4% during the forecast period.
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Titan International (NYSE: TWI) anticipates several key drivers for its revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Continued Growth in the Earthmoving/Construction (EMC) Segment: The EMC segment was a strong performer in late 2025, experiencing a 21% increase in revenue. Management expects this positive trend to continue into 2026, driven by ongoing demand in global construction and mining markets, particularly in Europe and the United States for light construction products.
- Recovery in the Agricultural (Ag) Segment and Aftermarket Demand: While the agricultural market faced challenges in 2025, Titan International expects stabilization and potential recovery in demand, especially for smaller agricultural equipment, as farmers adjust to input costs and commodity prices. The company also anticipates benefiting from the end of finished goods destocking by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their dealer networks. Furthermore, management is targeting sustained gains in the higher-margin aftermarket segment as agricultural inventories normalize.
- New Product Introductions and Expansion of Existing Product Lines: Titan International is actively expanding its product portfolio, highlighted by the introduction of its first-ever rubber tracks for light construction applications in early 2026, with plans for over 50 stock-keeping units (SKUs) across six tread patterns. The company also continues to focus on developing new wheels, tires, and undercarriage components, alongside the ongoing expansion of its Low Sidewall Technology (LSW) products into small and mid-size farm applications, Canada, and military opportunities.
- Synergies from Acquisitions and Strategic Initiatives: The February 2024 acquisition of Carlstar is expected to generate commercial synergies, including the sale of Carlstar products in Latin America and Europe, and the distribution of Titan and Goodyear products through Carlstar's dealer network.
- Targeted Geographic Market Expansion: Titan International is strategically focusing on expanding its presence in specific geographic markets. This includes prioritizing agricultural replacement sales in Brazil and Latin America, and extending its construction undercarriage offerings in Central and Eastern Europe through ITM. The company is also exploring selective entry into the Asia-Pacific region via OEM partnerships and distributor-led aftermarket channels.
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Share Repurchases
- Titan International repurchased 8.0 million shares of common stock from MHR Fund Management for $57.6 million ($7.20 per share) in October 2024.
- Annual share repurchases for TWI were $74.019 million in 2024.
- Annual share repurchases for TWI were $32.579 million in 2023.
Share Issuance
- In March 2026, Titan International's VP and Chief Accounting Officer received a grant of 20,000 shares of common stock as part of equity compensation, awarded at no cash cost.
Outbound Investments
- Titan International completed the acquisition of Carlstar in February 2024, which bolstered its aftermarket business.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the full year 2025 were just below $55 million, a decrease from $66 million in 2024.
- Capital expenditures in 2024 were $65.6 million, compared to $60.8 million in 2023.
- The company's capital investments are focused on growth initiatives, new products, and enhancing plant efficiencies.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 223.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.9 |
| Rev LTM | 14,141 |
| Op Inc LTM | 864 |
| FCF LTM | 735 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 769 |
| CFO LTM | 923 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,011 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -6.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -6.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.9 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 15.5 |
| P/EBIT | 14.3 |
| P/E | 14.7 |
| P/CFO | 15.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -19.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -14.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -26.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -53.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $7.35 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/20/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -35.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $7.64 | $8.31 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -3.8% | -11.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 53.1% | 50.7% |
| Downside Capture | 360.33 | 187.48 |
| Upside Capture | 113.34 | 136.09 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 58.1% | 41.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.22 | 2.08 | 1.84 | 1.76 | 1.78 | 1.45 |
| Up Beta | 2.32 | 2.56 | 2.68 | 2.23 | 2.34 | 1.67 |
| Down Beta | 7.76 | 1.20 | 2.31 | 1.90 | 1.77 | 1.53 |
| Up Capture | 160% | 133% | 124% | 166% | 154% | 124% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 16 | 27 | 56 | 114 | 356 |
| Down Capture | -52% | 257% | 149% | 143% | 142% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 27 | 37 | 68 | 133 | 378 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TWI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWI | 9.4% | 50.5% | 0.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 23.3% | 15.4% | 1.16 | 50.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.5% | 12.0% | 1.86 | 40.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.5% | 26.8% | 1.11 | 8.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.9% | 18.7% | 1.77 | -11.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.2% | 13.1% | 0.82 | 35.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.5% | 41.7% | -0.73 | 23.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TWI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWI | -4.7% | 57.0% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.2% | 17.4% | 0.54 | 53.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.0% | 0.64 | 44.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | 7.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.4% | 0.42 | 17.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.8% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 36.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.2% | 55.3% | 0.42 | 14.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TWI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWI | 3.0% | 63.7% | 0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.0% | 20.0% | 0.62 | 45.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 36.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 0.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 17.9% | 0.35 | 20.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 27.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.2% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 10.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | -1.7% | -10.2% | -31.3% |
| 11/6/2025 | 1.4% | 0.8% | 6.0% |
| 7/31/2025 | 0.2% | 1.8% | 4.3% |
| 2/26/2025 | -9.3% | -5.2% | 2.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | -12.5% | -0.8% | -0.5% |
| 7/31/2024 | -0.6% | -10.8% | -2.0% |
| 2/29/2024 | -9.8% | -12.2% | -11.9% |
| 11/1/2023 | 3.7% | 10.4% | 19.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 4.2% | 19.5% |
| Median Negative | -9.4% | -10.8% | -11.4% |
| Max Positive | 16.3% | 58.0% | 105.6% |
| Max Negative | -18.0% | -16.1% | -31.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/01/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 490.00 Mil | 500.00 Mil | 510.00 Mil | 25.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 397.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 28.00 Mil | 30.50 Mil | 33.00 Mil | 205.0% | Higher New | Actual: 10.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.85 Bil | 1.90 Bil | 1.95 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 105.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | 115.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 385.00 Mil | 397.50 Mil | 410.00 Mil | -14.1% | Lower New | Actual: 462.50 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 10.00 Mil | -63.6% | Lower New | Actual: 27.50 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aipct, Holdings Llc | See footnote | Sell | 3062026 | 8.95 | 3,041,288 | 27,219,528 | 79,480,278 | Form | |
| 2 | Narancich, Max | COO, Carlstar | Direct | Buy | 8212025 | 8.56 | 3,500 | 29,957 | 471,084 | Form |
| 3 | Cashin, Richard M JR | the Richard M. Cashin Jr 2017 GRAT | Sell | 7022025 | 10.34 | 212,398 | 2,196,110 | 1,824,536 | Form | |
| 4 | Cashin, Richard M JR | the Richard M. Cashin Jr 2017 GRAT | Sell | 7022025 | 10.31 | 63,950 | 659,376 | 4,009,447 | Form | |
| 5 | Eheli, Anthony | VP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6232025 | 9.24 | 25,000 | 231,000 | 418,350 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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