Titan International (TWI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.17 | Market Cap: $522.0 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Titan International (TWI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.17Market Cap: $522.0 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, EV Manufacturing, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 104% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, EV Manufacturing, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 104% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TWI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the -6.1% stock movement of Titan International (TWI) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Q3 2025 GAAP Earnings Miss: While Titan International reported an adjusted EPS of $0.04 for Q3 2025, beating consensus estimates, the company's GAAP EPS came in at -$0.04, missing analyst expectations. This negative GAAP result likely contributed to investor concern.
2. Weak Q4 2025 Guidance: Following the Q3 2025 earnings release, management provided a weaker outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025. The company projected sales to be between $385 million and $410 million, with adjusted EBITDA anticipated to be around $10 million. This forward-looking guidance indicated a significant slowdown compared to Q3 performance and likely impacted investor sentiment negatively.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TWI Return | 35% | 126% | 40% | -3% | -54% | 19% | 123% |
| Peers Return | 24% | 11% | 11% | 12% | -7% | -10% | 43% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TWI Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 17% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 43% | 43% | 35% | 33% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TWI Max Drawdown | -70% | -1% | -14% | -38% | -57% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -7% | -19% | -9% | -16% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DE, AGCO, GENC, WNC, AEBI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TWI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -72.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 260.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 179 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -83.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 520.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 890 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -91.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1084.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to DE, AGCO, GENC, WNC, AEBI
In The Past
Titan International's stock fell -51.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -51.7% loss requires a 107.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TWI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Titan International
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 12.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,720 |
| Op Inc LTM | 219 |
| FCF LTM | 54 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 118 |
| CFO LTM | 88 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 186 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -20.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 14.3 |
| P/E | 13.5 |
| P/CFO | 16.1 |
| Total Yield | 5.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -14.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -83.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8012022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3032022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |