Tearsheet

TH International (THCH)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $2.46 | Market Cap: $80.0 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

TH International (THCH)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $2.46
Market Cap: $80.0 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Digital Transformation in Food Service, and Global Consumer Markets. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -145%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -166%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -249 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -19%
1   Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 2090%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.9%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.4%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -443%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 390%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Digital Transformation in Food Service, and Global Consumer Markets. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -145%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -166%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -249 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -19%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 2090%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.9%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.4%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -443%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 390%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

THCH Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

TH International (THCH) experienced a stock movement of -9.5% during the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025, influenced by several key factors.

1. Weak Q2 2025 Company-Owned Store Revenue and Same-Store Sales: TH International's Q2 2025 financial results, announced on August 26, 2025, revealed a 12.5% year-over-year drop in company-owned and operated store revenues, largely due to planned closures of underperforming stores and a 3.6% decrease in same-store sales growth. While other metrics like adjusted corporate EBITDA improved, these revenue declines in core operations likely contributed to investor concern.

2. Significant Institutional Investor Divestment: During Q2 2025, a notable institutional investor, HSG HOLDING LTD, completely divested its position by removing 2,900,606 shares, valued at an estimated $8,600,296. This substantial institutional sell-off, exceeding the $5 million threshold, suggests a significant loss of confidence from a major investor and exerted downward pressure on the stock.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
THCH Return----37%-59%-86%-96%
Peers Return18%25%3%-2%72%-28%87%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
THCH Win Rate--0%50%17%50% 
Peers Win Rate20%23%20%24%28%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
THCH Max Drawdown----47%-66%-96% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-2%-12%-9%-12%-36% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BH, RICK, BRCB, CHSN, HCHL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTHCHS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-79.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven395.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to BH, RICK, BRCB, CHSN, HCHL


In The Past

TH International's stock fell -79.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/29/2022. A -79.8% loss requires a 395.9% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About TH International (THCH)

Better Bets than TH International (THCH)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1How Low Can TH International Stock Really Go?Return
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to THCH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.8%-7.8%-7.8%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-1.0%-1.0%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-4.3%-4.3%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.8%-7.8%-7.8%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-1.0%-1.0%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-4.3%-4.3%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for TH International

Financials

THCHBHRICKBRCBCHSNHCHLMedian
NameTH Inter.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Chanson .Happy Ci. 
Mkt Price2.48307.6023.1321.142.083.0212.08
Mkt Cap0.10.40.2---0.2
Rev LTM1,342387282---387
Op Inc LTM-2492447---24
FCF LTM-468134---34
FCF 3Y Avg-1235428---28
CFO LTM-4610751---51
CFO 3Y Avg-1238056---56

Growth & Margins

THCHBHRICKBRCBCHSNHCHLMedian
NameTH Inter.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Chanson .Happy Ci. 
Rev Chg LTM-11.2%6.9%-5.3%----5.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg22.5%1.7%4.2%---4.2%
Rev Chg Q-4.9%10.3%-6.6%----4.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.3%2.5%-1.8%----1.3%
Op Mgn LTM-18.6%6.2%16.6%---6.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-29.0%8.1%19.8%---8.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%1.0%-1.3%---0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM-3.4%27.7%18.2%---18.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-8.8%21.3%19.4%---19.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-3.4%21.0%11.9%---11.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-8.8%14.2%9.7%---9.7%

Valuation

THCHBHRICKBRCBCHSNHCHLMedian
NameTH Inter.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Chanson .Happy Ci. 
Mkt Cap0.10.40.2---0.2
P/S0.11.00.7---0.7
P/EBIT-0.258.15.7---5.7
P/E-0.2190.912.3---12.3
P/CFO-1.83.74.0---3.7
Total Yield-438.7%0.5%9.4%---0.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%1.2%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-61.2%17.5%6.6%---6.6%
D/E22.80.91.3---1.3
Net D/E20.9-0.11.2---1.2

Returns

THCHBHRICKBRCBCHSNHCHLMedian
NameTH Inter.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Chanson .Happy Ci. 
1M Rtn0.0%-14.8%-14.0%-9.8%-14.0%-13.0%-13.5%
3M Rtn-3.9%1.5%-36.3%--36.6%3.8%-3.9%
6M Rtn-12.7%27.4%-44.9%--95.3%--28.8%
12M Rtn-85.0%46.5%-52.9%--99.6%--68.9%
3Y Rtn-97.1%114.1%-73.0%----73.0%
1M Excs Rtn-0.1%-14.9%-14.1%-9.9%-14.2%-13.1%-13.6%
3M Excs Rtn-7.9%-3.2%-40.3%--27.0%-1.0%-7.9%
6M Excs Rtn-24.6%15.5%-56.8%--107.1%--40.7%
12M Excs Rtn-97.3%39.3%-65.1%--111.1%--81.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-166.0%40.8%-140.6%----140.6%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,589
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025103.1%
Average Daily Volume6,934
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.39
Basic Shares Quantity32,523,707
Short % of Basic Shares0.1%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202582620256-K 6/30/2025
331202562420256-K 3/31/2025
12312024515202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024111220246-K 9/30/2024
630202482920246-K 6/30/2024
331202461020246-K 3/31/2024
12312023430202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023111520236-K 9/30/2023
630202383020236-K 6/30/2023
331202353120236-K 3/31/2023
12312022428202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022113020226-K 9/30/2022
630202210132022F-1 6/30/2022
123120217212022424B3 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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