Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)
Market Price (7/10/2026): $8.135 | Market Cap: $142.9 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)
Market Price (7/10/2026): $8.135Market Cap: $142.9 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -74% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Experiential Retail, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -107%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -140% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 107% Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 91x Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% Key risksBRCB key risks include [1] its heavy geographic concentration in the Western U.S., Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -74% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Experiential Retail, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -107%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -140% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 107% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 91x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% |
| Key risksBRCB key risks include [1] its heavy geographic concentration in the Western U.S., Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) stock has lost about 35% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) reported weaker-than-expected fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 12, 2026, significantly missing analyst estimates. The company posted an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.02, falling short of the consensus estimate of $0.04 by $0.02. Quarterly revenue was also $55.45 million, missing estimates of $57.78 million. This earnings miss triggered a substantial stock decline of approximately 30% on May 13, 2026, with the price dropping to $7.65.
2. Concerns over cannibalization from its expansion strategy were highlighted during the fiscal Q1 2026 earnings call, raising doubts about the efficacy of Black Rock's growth. Management disclosed that a "sales transfer phenomenon," where new store openings draw sales from existing nearby locations, created a 160-basis point headwind to same-store sales growth. This revelation, despite the opening of nine new stores in fiscal Q1 2026, indicated a slowing sequential revenue growth rate and contributed to negative investor sentiment.
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Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) stock has lost about 35% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) reported weaker-than-expected fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 12, 2026, significantly missing analyst estimates. The company posted an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.02, falling short of the consensus estimate of $0.04 by $0.02. Quarterly revenue was also $55.45 million, missing estimates of $57.78 million. This earnings miss triggered a substantial stock decline of approximately 30% on May 13, 2026, with the price dropping to $7.65.
2. Concerns over cannibalization from its expansion strategy were highlighted during the fiscal Q1 2026 earnings call, raising doubts about the efficacy of Black Rock's growth. Management disclosed that a "sales transfer phenomenon," where new store openings draw sales from existing nearby locations, created a 160-basis point headwind to same-store sales growth. This revelation, despite the opening of nine new stores in fiscal Q1 2026, indicated a slowing sequential revenue growth rate and contributed to negative investor sentiment.
3. The company is facing securities class action lawsuits alleging misleading disclosures in its September 2025 initial public offering (IPO) documents. These lawsuits, filed as of July 2026, claim that Black Rock Coffee Bar's IPO documents failed to adequately disclose that its expansion strategy was leading to cannibalization of existing store revenues and that the strategy's ability to mitigate sales transfer was overstated. By June 18, 2026, the stock had declined over 61% from its $20 IPO price, with the class period for the lawsuits extending from September 12, 2025, to May 12, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.2% change in BRCB stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 54.9% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.92 | 8.11 | -37.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 200 | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.6% | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 256.5 | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 24 | 15 | 54.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BRCB | -37.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 20.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 7.2% | 39.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -63.6% change in BRCB stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.25 | 8.11 | -63.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 15 | 15 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BRCB | -63.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.5% | 31.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.9% | 41.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BRCB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 22.7% | 33.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 8.2% | 38.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BRCB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 33.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 40.8% | 38.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BRCB Return | - | - | - | - | -19% | -66% | -72% |
| Peers Return | 18% | -5% | 3% | 8% | 1% | 15% | 42% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BRCB Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 25% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 50% | 50% | 47% | 52% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BRCB Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -73% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -30% | -28% | -22% | -27% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SBUX, BROS, QSR, KDP, SJM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
BRCB has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 874 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
BRCB has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 874 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 372 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)
Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) is a rapidly growing, guest-centric operator of drive-thru coffee bars that offer premium caffeinated beverages alongside an elevated in-store experience. Founded in 2008, the company has expanded significantly to become the largest fully company-owned coffee retailer in the United States, boasting 158 locations across seven states, from the Pacific Northwest to Texas, as of June 30, 2025. While initially focused on efficient drive-thrus, most new locations now feature inviting lobbies, creating versatile spaces for guests and operating under a mission to "Fuel People Forward" through Connection, Caffeine, and Community.
The company's main product offerings include a broad range of high-quality coffee beverages, crafted from exclusively sourced premium beans that are roasted in small batches in-house to ensure optimal freshness. Guests can choose from popular items such as Nitro Cold Brews, customizable Lattes, Americanos, and indulgent specialties like the Caramel Blondie. A key innovation is their proprietary Iced and Frozen Fuel energy drinks, which are customizable and resonate with a wide demographic seeking bold, refreshing, and flexible options. Beyond beverages, Black Rock provides a distinctive guest experience, characterized by engaging baristas, modern store designs, and both quick drive-thru service and comfortable seating areas, supported by a robust digital platform.
Black Rock Coffee Bar primarily serves a diverse base of customers who prioritize premium quality, speed, and authentic connections. Its market consists of individuals drawn to the consistent delivery of high-quality caffeinated beverages and the unique "moments that matter" fostered by friendly, attentive baristas. The company cultivates a strong sense of community, with many guests identifying strongly with their local Black Rock store. By serving as welcoming hubs for various social interactions and providing both a caffeine fix and a trusted community space, Black Rock continues to expand its footprint and deepen its ties within new and existing markets.
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Here are a few brief analogies for Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB):
- A premium version of Dutch Bros.
- Like Dutch Bros with a Starbucks sensibility.
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- Premium Coffee Beverages: A wide array of handcrafted coffee drinks, including Nitro Cold Brew, Americanos, and customizable Lattes, made with small-batch roasted premium beans.
- Proprietary Fuel Energy Drinks: Customizable iced and frozen energy drinks designed to be a bold, flexible, and refreshing alternative.
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Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) primarily sells its products directly to individuals, referred to as "guests." Based on the company description, the following are up to three categories of customers it serves:
- Commuters and On-the-Go Consumers: This category includes individuals who frequent the drive-thru locations for quick and convenient access to premium caffeinated beverages as part of their daily routine. The company was founded as a drive-thru only concept and emphasizes efficiency.
- Social and Leisure Customers: These customers utilize Black Rock Coffee Bar's inviting lobbies as a space for social interactions, such as "casual catch-ups" or "first dates," seeking an elevated in-store experience and a sense of community.
- Work and Study Individuals: This category encompasses guests who use the comfortable lobby spaces for productive activities like "business meetings" or "study groups," leveraging the welcoming environment for work-related or academic purposes.
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Mark Davis, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Davis has served as the Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Black Rock Coffee Bar since 2023. Prior to joining Black Rock Coffee, Mr. Davis was the Chief Operating Officer of Coffee & Bagel Brands from July 2019 to April 2023, where he oversaw operations for brands including Einstein Bros., Bruegger's, Noah's, and Manhattan Bagels. Before this, he was the Chief Executive Officer of Tokyo Joe's from January 2015 to June 2019, where the brand significantly expanded its national footprint under his leadership. Mr. Davis also held roles as Chief Operations Officer at Breckenridge-Wynkoop LLC and Vice President of Operations at Panera Bread Co.
Rodd Booth, Chief Financial Officer
Rodd Booth has been the Chief Financial Officer of Black Rock Coffee Bar since October 2020. Before his tenure at Black Rock Coffee, Mr. Booth worked as an Assurance Senior Manager and Audit Practice Leader at Aldrich CPA+ Advisors LLP from November 2014 to October 2020. Earlier in his career, he served as an Audit Manager at Grant Thornton LLP, an international accounting firm, from 2011 to 2014. Mr. Booth is a Certified Public Accountant (Inactive).
Clay Geyer, Chief Operating Officer
Clay Geyer assumed the role of Chief Operating Officer in January 2025. Previously, he served as Black Rock Coffee Bar's Vice President of Operations from January 2022 to December 2024. Before joining the corporate team, Mr. Geyer was a franchisee of Black Rock Coffee from 2016 to 2021.
Robert Kaufmann, Chief Development Officer
Robert Kaufmann has served as the Chief Development Officer of Black Rock Coffee Bar since January 2025. Prior to this role, he was the Vice President of Development from January 2015 to January 2025.
Jessica Wegener-Beyer, Chief Marketing Officer
Jessica Wegener-Beyer became the Chief Marketing Officer in April 2024. Before joining Black Rock Coffee Bar, Ms. Wegener-Beyer was the Chief Marketing Officer at eegee's, an Arizona-based sandwich restaurant chain, from November 2020 to January 2023. She also served as Senior Director of Marketing at True Food Kitchen.
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Key Business Risks for Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)
- Intense Competition and Market Saturation: Black Rock Coffee Bar operates in a highly competitive industry with numerous established national chains, regional players, and independent coffee shops. As a "high-growth operator," the company's rapid expansion into new and existing markets will likely intensify this competition. Competitors may offer similar products, competitive pricing, or alternative experiences, potentially limiting Black Rock Coffee Bar's ability to gain market share, secure desirable locations, attract new customers, and maintain pricing power, which could hinder its growth objectives.
- Dependence on Attracting, Retaining, and Training Engaged Baristas, and Maintaining Consistent Customer Experience: The company's mission to "Fuel People Forward - One Connection, One Moment, One Cup at a Time" and its emphasis on "engaging baristas," "authentic connections," and "exceptional guest satisfaction" highlight the critical role of its workforce in delivering its brand promise. The business model is highly reliant on attracting, training, and retaining a large number of quality staff who can consistently provide an "elevated in-store experience." Labor shortages, increased labor costs, high employee turnover, or challenges in maintaining consistent training and service standards across a rapidly expanding network of locations could directly impact customer loyalty, operational efficiency, and brand reputation.
- Supply Chain Disruptions and Fluctuations in Commodity Costs: Black Rock Coffee Bar's commitment to "exclusive use of premium beans" and its operation of "two roasting facilities" make it vulnerable to external factors affecting its supply chain. The company is exposed to price volatility of coffee beans, which are global commodities, as well as potential supply shortages due to climate change, geopolitical events, or transportation issues. Significant increases in the cost of coffee beans or other essential ingredients and operational supplies, or disruptions to their sourcing and roasting processes, could adversely impact profitability and the ability to maintain consistent product quality and competitive pricing.
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United States Coffee Shop Market
The U.S. coffee shop industry revenue is estimated at approximately $74.3 billion in 2025.United States Energy Drinks Market
The U.S. energy drinks market size was estimated at $25.01 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% from 2024 to 2030.AI Analysis | Feedback
Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- New Store Expansion: The company plans to continue its rapid growth by opening new locations. As of June 30, 2025, Black Rock Coffee Bar operated 158 locations, and its strategy involves scaling the business by adding new units and expanding into new and existing markets to deepen connections with guests and fuel daily routines.
- Growth of "Fuel" Energy Drinks: The proprietary Iced and Frozen Fuel energy drinks have quickly become a popular product category. Their continued growth is expected to drive increased transaction volume and guest frequency by offering a customizable, flavor-forward option that resonates with a wide demographic and provides an energizing alternative.
- Enhanced Guest Experience and Loyalty: Black Rock Coffee Bar focuses on "Connection, Caffeine, and Community" to foster strong guest relationships, excellent retention, and lasting brand loyalty. This strategy, supported by an exceptional guest satisfaction score and the inclusion of engaging lobbies in most new locations, is designed to increase guest frequency and average spending per visit.
- Ongoing Menu Innovation and Premium Offerings: The company's commitment to delivering high-quality, premium coffee and handcrafted beverages, along with a broad and flexible menu, supports long-term guest engagement. This includes the exclusive use of premium beans, small-batch roasting, and the ability to innovate, ensuring offerings remain competitive and appealing to a diverse customer base.
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Share Issuance
- Black Rock Coffee Bar completed an initial public offering (IPO) in September 2025.
- The IPO involved the offering of 16.9 million Class A shares at $20.00 per share.
- The offering raised approximately $314.6 million in gross proceeds.
Capital Expenditures
- In the last 12 months, capital expenditures for Black Rock Coffee Bar amounted to -$34.89 million.
- The company invested $12.0 million in capital expenditures during Q4 2025, primarily for funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
- Black Rock Coffee Bar plans to open 36 new stores in 2026, continuing its expansion, after adding 32 locations in 2025.
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 70.29 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.9 |
| Rev LTM | 9,320 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,952 |
| FCF LTM | 1,360 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,349 |
| CFO LTM | 1,648 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,557 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 7.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $8.11 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/12/2025 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -70.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $17.82 | $17.82 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -54.5% | -54.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 97.1% | 75.3% |
| Downside Capture | 204.72 | 273.98 |
| Upside Capture | -114.01 | 50.46 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 13.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.15 | 0.76 | 1.48 | 1.91 | -0.41 | -0.44 |
| Up Beta | 6.22 | 4.98 | 3.50 | 3.09 | -0.29 | -0.15 |
| Down Beta | 0.81 | 1.09 | 0.36 | 1.79 | -0.80 | -0.02 |
| Up Capture | -12% | -161% | -33% | 12% | 30% | 3% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 19 | 31 | 54 | 89 | 89 |
| Down Capture | -8% | 48% | 176% | 211% | 164% | 89% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 22 | 32 | 71 | 109 | 109 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BRCB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRCB | -70.7% | 75.3% | -1.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 8.0% | 18.7% | 0.28 | 38.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.3% | 12.5% | 1.33 | 33.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.4% | 27.8% | 0.77 | 10.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 23.6% | 18.7% | 1.00 | -9.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.2% | 13.9% | 0.65 | 25.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.8% | 42.8% | -1.18 | 29.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BRCB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRCB | -21.7% | 75.3% | -1.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.4% | 23.9% | 0.23 | 38.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 33.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.0% | 18.3% | 0.80 | 10.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.5% | 0.28 | -9.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 25.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.3% | 53.5% | 0.42 | 29.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BRCB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRCB | -11.5% | 75.3% | -1.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.0% | 22.1% | 0.54 | 38.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 33.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.7% | 16.1% | 0.59 | 10.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.1% | 18.0% | 0.27 | -9.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 25.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 29.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/15/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/12/2026 | -30.3% | -39.1% | -35.8% |
| 3/3/2026 | 9.6% | 8.3% | -11.2% |
| 11/12/2025 | -5.1% | -14.9% | -4.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 9.6% | 8.3% | |
| Median Negative | -17.7% | -27.0% | -11.2% |
| Max Positive | 9.6% | 8.3% | |
| Max Negative | -30.3% | -39.1% | -35.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/12/2026 | -30.3% | -39.1% | -35.8% |
| 3/3/2026 | 9.6% | 8.3% | -11.2% |
| 11/12/2025 | -5.1% | -14.9% | -4.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 9.6% | 8.3% | |
| Median Negative | -17.7% | -27.0% | -11.2% |
| Max Positive | 9.6% | 8.3% | |
| Max Negative | -30.3% | -39.1% | -35.8% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/9/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 New Store Openings | 36 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 36 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Revenue | 255.00 Mil | 256.00 Mil | 257.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 256.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 33.50 Mil | 34.00 Mil | 34.50 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 34.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 40.00 Mil | 40.50 Mil | 41.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 40.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 New Store Openings | 36 | 20.0% | Higher New | Actual: 30 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Revenue | 255.00 Mil | 256.00 Mil | 257.00 Mil | 28.3% | Higher New | Actual: 199.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Same Store Sales Growth | 5.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 33.50 Mil | 34.00 Mil | 34.50 Mil | 27.1% | Higher New | Actual: 26.75 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 40.00 Mil | 40.50 Mil | 41.00 Mil | 30.6% | Higher New | Actual: 31.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/27/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geyer, Clay Howard | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Buy | 5272026 | 6.90 | 8 | 55 | 403,740 | Form |
| 2 | Schmidt, Michael Ryan | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 5212026 | 6.98 | 7,100 | 49,558 | 49,558 | Form |
| 3 | Wegener-Beyer, Jessica Michele | Chief Marketing Officer | Beyer Family Living Trust | Buy | 5212026 | 6.46 | 3,098 | 20,015 | 20,015 | Form |
| 4 | Cynosure, Group, Llc | See footnote | Buy | 5192026 | 5.35 | 12,042,712 | 64,428,509 | 106,546,876 | Form | |
| 5 | Cynosure, Group, Llc | See footnote | Buy | 5192026 | 5.35 | 1,600,000 | 8,560,000 | 10,250,664 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geyer, Clay Howard | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Buy | 5272026 | 6.90 | 8 | 55 | 403,740 | Form |
| 2 | Schmidt, Michael Ryan | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 5212026 | 6.98 | 7,100 | 49,558 | 49,558 | Form |
| 3 | Wegener-Beyer, Jessica Michele | Chief Marketing Officer | Beyer Family Living Trust | Buy | 5212026 | 6.46 | 3,098 | 20,015 | 20,015 | Form |
| 4 | Cynosure, Group, Llc | See footnote | Buy | 5192026 | 5.35 | 12,042,712 | 64,428,509 | 106,546,876 | Form | |
| 5 | Cynosure, Group, Llc | See footnote | Buy | 5192026 | 5.35 | 1,600,000 | 8,560,000 | 10,250,664 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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