Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)


Market Price (10/12/2026): $7.25 | Market Cap: $153.8 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)


Market Price (10/12/2026): $7.25
Market Cap: $153.8 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Experiential Retail, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -157%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 114%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 100x

Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4%

Key risks
BRCB key risks include [1] its heavy geographic concentration in the Western U.S., Show more.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Experiential Retail, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -157%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 114%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 100x
5 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4%
7 Key risks
BRCB key risks include [1] its heavy geographic concentration in the Western U.S., Show more.

BRCB in ETFs

Weight = BRCB's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
IWM0.00%
IWO0.01%
VTWO0.01%
SCHA0.00%
SCHB0.00%

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 10/1/2026

Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Black Rock Coffee Bar's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, reported on August 11, 2026, included an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.06, which missed analysts' consensus estimate of $0.07. While the company reported a 25% year-over-year revenue growth to $63 million and raised its 2026 new store opening guidance to at least 38 locations and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $34 million-$35 million, the EPS miss contributed to the stock drifting 12.6% lower in the 46 days following the announcement.

2. Analyst sentiment shifted more cautious, with price targets reduced and concerns raised about the company's capital for its ambitious expansion plans. Analysts downgraded the stock and decreased average price targets from approximately $18.67 to $12.57, citing deteriorating growth and margin trends. A significant concern was the capital required for the long-term goal of reaching 1,000 stores by 2035, which implies an estimated capital expenditure of approximately $1 million per new store, with current cash reserves considered insufficient for this aggressive growth strategy.

Show more
Updated on 10/1/2026

Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Black Rock Coffee Bar's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, reported on August 11, 2026, included an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.06, which missed analysts' consensus estimate of $0.07. While the company reported a 25% year-over-year revenue growth to $63 million and raised its 2026 new store opening guidance to at least 38 locations and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $34 million-$35 million, the EPS miss contributed to the stock drifting 12.6% lower in the 46 days following the announcement.

2. Analyst sentiment shifted more cautious, with price targets reduced and concerns raised about the company's capital for its ambitious expansion plans. Analysts downgraded the stock and decreased average price targets from approximately $18.67 to $12.57, citing deteriorating growth and margin trends. A significant concern was the capital required for the long-term goal of reaching 1,000 stores by 2035, which implies an estimated capital expenditure of approximately $1 million per new store, with current cash reserves considered insufficient for this aggressive growth strategy.

3. Broader macroeconomic headwinds contributed to investor caution regarding growth-oriented companies. Increased market volatility, driven by factors such as rising treasury yields and potential government oversight into AI, created an environment where investors became more risk-averse. This led to a general trimming of exposure to smaller, less profitable growth stocks like Black Rock Coffee Bar.

Show less
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -12.5% change in BRCB stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -28.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)630202610112026Change
Stock Price ($)8.297.25-12.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)�2240.0%
Net Income Margin (%)�0.7%0.0%
P/E Multiple�100.10.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1521-28.0%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2026 to 10/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
BRCB-12.5% 
Market (SPY)4.3%22.8%
Sector (XLY)-3.8%29.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The -43.9% change in BRCB stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -54.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)331202610112026Change
Stock Price ($)12.927.25-43.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)20022411.6%
P/S Multiple1.50.7-54.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)242111.5%
Cumulative Contribution-43.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 10/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
BRCB-43.9% 
Market (SPY)20.0%20.4%
Sector (XLY)3.8%34.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The -69.6% change in BRCB stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -28.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)930202510112026Change
Stock Price ($)23.867.25-69.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)�2240.0%
Net Income Margin (%)�0.7%0.0%
P/E Multiple�100.10.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1521-28.0%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 10/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
BRCB-69.6% 
Market (SPY)17.8%31.7%
Sector (XLY)-5.3%36.8%

Fundamental Drivers

null
null

Market Drivers

9/30/2023 to 10/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
BRCB  
Market (SPY)88.4%31.3%
Sector (XLY)43.4%36.1%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
BRCB Return-----19%-68%-74%
Peers Return18%-5%3%8%1%5%31%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BRCB Win Rate----25%20% 
Peers Win Rate53%50%50%47%52%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BRCB Max Drawdown------73% 
Peers Max Drawdown-16%-30%-28%-22%-27%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SBUX, BROS, QSR, KDP, SJM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/9/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

BRCB has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.

EventXLYS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-21.8%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.9%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven105 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-11.2%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven12.6%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven37 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-13.6%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven15.8%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven42 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-35.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven56.0%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven874 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-33.9%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven51.3%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven82 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-19.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven24.4%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven98 days105 days

Compare to SBUX, BROS, QSR, KDP, SJM

In The Past

State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

BRCB has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.

EventXLYS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-21.8%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.9%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven105 days79 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-35.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven56.0%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven874 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-33.9%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven51.3%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven82 days140 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-51.0%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven104.3%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven372 days1085 days

Compare to SBUX, BROS, QSR, KDP, SJM

In The Past

State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)

Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) is a rapidly growing, guest-centric operator of drive-thru coffee bars that offer premium caffeinated beverages alongside an elevated in-store experience. Founded in 2008, the company has expanded significantly to become the largest fully company-owned coffee retailer in the United States, boasting 158 locations across seven states, from the Pacific Northwest to Texas, as of June 30, 2025. While initially focused on efficient drive-thrus, most new locations now feature inviting lobbies, creating versatile spaces for guests and operating under a mission to "Fuel People Forward" through Connection, Caffeine, and Community.

The company's main product offerings include a broad range of high-quality coffee beverages, crafted from exclusively sourced premium beans that are roasted in small batches in-house to ensure optimal freshness. Guests can choose from popular items such as Nitro Cold Brews, customizable Lattes, Americanos, and indulgent specialties like the Caramel Blondie. A key innovation is their proprietary Iced and Frozen Fuel energy drinks, which are customizable and resonate with a wide demographic seeking bold, refreshing, and flexible options. Beyond beverages, Black Rock provides a distinctive guest experience, characterized by engaging baristas, modern store designs, and both quick drive-thru service and comfortable seating areas, supported by a robust digital platform.

Black Rock Coffee Bar primarily serves a diverse base of customers who prioritize premium quality, speed, and authentic connections. Its market consists of individuals drawn to the consistent delivery of high-quality caffeinated beverages and the unique "moments that matter" fostered by friendly, attentive baristas. The company cultivates a strong sense of community, with many guests identifying strongly with their local Black Rock store. By serving as welcoming hubs for various social interactions and providing both a caffeine fix and a trusted community space, Black Rock continues to expand its footprint and deepen its ties within new and existing markets.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are a few brief analogies for Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB):

  • A premium version of Dutch Bros.
  • Like Dutch Bros with a Starbucks sensibility.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Premium Coffee Beverages: A wide array of handcrafted coffee drinks, including Nitro Cold Brew, Americanos, and customizable Lattes, made with small-batch roasted premium beans.
  • Proprietary Fuel Energy Drinks: Customizable iced and frozen energy drinks designed to be a bold, flexible, and refreshing alternative.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) primarily sells its products directly to individuals, referred to as "guests." Based on the company description, the following are up to three categories of customers it serves:

  • Commuters and On-the-Go Consumers: This category includes individuals who frequent the drive-thru locations for quick and convenient access to premium caffeinated beverages as part of their daily routine. The company was founded as a drive-thru only concept and emphasizes efficiency.
  • Social and Leisure Customers: These customers utilize Black Rock Coffee Bar's inviting lobbies as a space for social interactions, such as "casual catch-ups" or "first dates," seeking an elevated in-store experience and a sense of community.
  • Work and Study Individuals: This category encompasses guests who use the comfortable lobby spaces for productive activities like "business meetings" or "study groups," leveraging the welcoming environment for work-related or academic purposes.

AI Analysis | Feedback

null

AI Analysis | Feedback

Mark Davis, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Davis has served as the Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Black Rock Coffee Bar since 2023. Prior to joining Black Rock Coffee, Mr. Davis was the Chief Operating Officer of Coffee & Bagel Brands from July 2019 to April 2023, where he oversaw operations for brands including Einstein Bros., Bruegger's, Noah's, and Manhattan Bagels. Before this, he was the Chief Executive Officer of Tokyo Joe's from January 2015 to June 2019, where the brand significantly expanded its national footprint under his leadership. Mr. Davis also held roles as Chief Operations Officer at Breckenridge-Wynkoop LLC and Vice President of Operations at Panera Bread Co.

Rodd Booth, Chief Financial Officer
Rodd Booth has been the Chief Financial Officer of Black Rock Coffee Bar since October 2020. Before his tenure at Black Rock Coffee, Mr. Booth worked as an Assurance Senior Manager and Audit Practice Leader at Aldrich CPA+ Advisors LLP from November 2014 to October 2020. Earlier in his career, he served as an Audit Manager at Grant Thornton LLP, an international accounting firm, from 2011 to 2014. Mr. Booth is a Certified Public Accountant (Inactive).

Clay Geyer, Chief Operating Officer
Clay Geyer assumed the role of Chief Operating Officer in January 2025. Previously, he served as Black Rock Coffee Bar's Vice President of Operations from January 2022 to December 2024. Before joining the corporate team, Mr. Geyer was a franchisee of Black Rock Coffee from 2016 to 2021.

Robert Kaufmann, Chief Development Officer
Robert Kaufmann has served as the Chief Development Officer of Black Rock Coffee Bar since January 2025. Prior to this role, he was the Vice President of Development from January 2015 to January 2025.

Jessica Wegener-Beyer, Chief Marketing Officer
Jessica Wegener-Beyer became the Chief Marketing Officer in April 2024. Before joining Black Rock Coffee Bar, Ms. Wegener-Beyer was the Chief Marketing Officer at eegee's, an Arizona-based sandwich restaurant chain, from November 2020 to January 2023. She also served as Senior Director of Marketing at True Food Kitchen.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Key Business Risks for Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)

  1. Intense Competition and Market Saturation: Black Rock Coffee Bar operates in a highly competitive industry with numerous established national chains, regional players, and independent coffee shops. As a "high-growth operator," the company's rapid expansion into new and existing markets will likely intensify this competition. Competitors may offer similar products, competitive pricing, or alternative experiences, potentially limiting Black Rock Coffee Bar's ability to gain market share, secure desirable locations, attract new customers, and maintain pricing power, which could hinder its growth objectives.
  2. Dependence on Attracting, Retaining, and Training Engaged Baristas, and Maintaining Consistent Customer Experience: The company's mission to "Fuel People Forward - One Connection, One Moment, One Cup at a Time" and its emphasis on "engaging baristas," "authentic connections," and "exceptional guest satisfaction" highlight the critical role of its workforce in delivering its brand promise. The business model is highly reliant on attracting, training, and retaining a large number of quality staff who can consistently provide an "elevated in-store experience." Labor shortages, increased labor costs, high employee turnover, or challenges in maintaining consistent training and service standards across a rapidly expanding network of locations could directly impact customer loyalty, operational efficiency, and brand reputation.
  3. Supply Chain Disruptions and Fluctuations in Commodity Costs: Black Rock Coffee Bar's commitment to "exclusive use of premium beans" and its operation of "two roasting facilities" make it vulnerable to external factors affecting its supply chain. The company is exposed to price volatility of coffee beans, which are global commodities, as well as potential supply shortages due to climate change, geopolitical events, or transportation issues. Significant increases in the cost of coffee beans or other essential ingredients and operational supplies, or disruptions to their sourcing and roasting processes, could adversely impact profitability and the ability to maintain consistent product quality and competitive pricing.

AI Analysis | Feedback

null

AI Analysis | Feedback

The addressable markets for Black Rock Coffee Bar's main products and services in the United States are as follows:

United States Coffee Shop Market

The U.S. coffee shop industry revenue is estimated at approximately $74.3 billion in 2025.

United States Energy Drinks Market

The U.S. energy drinks market size was estimated at $25.01 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% from 2024 to 2030.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

  1. New Store Expansion: The company plans to continue its rapid growth by opening new locations. As of June 30, 2025, Black Rock Coffee Bar operated 158 locations, and its strategy involves scaling the business by adding new units and expanding into new and existing markets to deepen connections with guests and fuel daily routines.
  2. Growth of "Fuel" Energy Drinks: The proprietary Iced and Frozen Fuel energy drinks have quickly become a popular product category. Their continued growth is expected to drive increased transaction volume and guest frequency by offering a customizable, flavor-forward option that resonates with a wide demographic and provides an energizing alternative.
  3. Enhanced Guest Experience and Loyalty: Black Rock Coffee Bar focuses on "Connection, Caffeine, and Community" to foster strong guest relationships, excellent retention, and lasting brand loyalty. This strategy, supported by an exceptional guest satisfaction score and the inclusion of engaging lobbies in most new locations, is designed to increase guest frequency and average spending per visit.
  4. Ongoing Menu Innovation and Premium Offerings: The company's commitment to delivering high-quality, premium coffee and handcrafted beverages, along with a broad and flexible menu, supports long-term guest engagement. This includes the exclusive use of premium beans, small-batch roasting, and the ability to innovate, ensuring offerings remain competitive and appealing to a diverse customer base.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Issuance

  • Black Rock Coffee Bar completed an initial public offering (IPO) in September 2025.
  • The IPO involved the offering of 16.9 million Class A shares at $20.00 per share.
  • The offering raised approximately $314.6 million in gross proceeds.

Capital Expenditures

  • In the last 12 months, capital expenditures for Black Rock Coffee Bar amounted to -$34.89 million.
  • The company invested $12.0 million in capital expenditures during Q4 2025, primarily for funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
  • Black Rock Coffee Bar plans to open 36 new stores in 2026, continuing its expansion, after adding 32 locations in 2025.

Peer Outperformance in Restaurants

null
Share of Restaurants constituents that BRCB has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
2%
of 44 industry peers · -67.0% return
3Y
—
insufficient peer history
5Y
—
insufficient peer history
null
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Restaurants is BRCB's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services 14 -16.2%87.5%87.8% CVSA 268% · LINC 246% · PRDO 235%
Homebuilding 18 -4.0%34.3%47.5% GRBK 194% · TOL 146% · PHM 145%
Specialty Stores 7 12.8%39.1%19.3% ASO 41% · SIG 38% · DKS 34%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 21 11.5%34.6%10.0% RCL 229% · MAR 142% · LIND 134%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -20.4%0.3%-2.3% HVT 15% · HD -2% · LOW -2%
Automotive Retail 18 -12.6%5.5%-10.0% MUSA 235% · PAG 117% · ORLY 113%
Footwear 9 71.9%48.9%-11.6% WEYS 204% · DECK 47% · SHOO 19%
Restaurants ← 36 -8.2%-7.8%-16.3% EAT 290% · CAKE 168% · BH 116%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -13.6%12.8%-16.5% HRB 108% · FTDR 89% · SCI 36%
Distributors 4 -9.7%-28.3%-17.5% ARMK 118% · GPC 17% · LKQ -52%
Home Furnishings 4 -2.1%28.1%-17.8% SGI 47% · LZB -1% · MHK -35%
Apparel Retail 25 8.8%16.6%-36.7% ANF 268% · URBN 176% · TJX 137%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 38 -5.3%-13.7%-39.4% MOD 1403% · GTX 269% · MLR 72%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 14.0%43.1%-39.6% BBY 1% · GME -40% · UPBD -61%
Household Appliances 18 7.6%-3.0%-40.0% FLXS 209% · HBB 168% · KEQU 155%
Leisure Facilities 12 7.3%-7.5%-42.2% JAKK 159% · LTH 135% · OSW 124%
Leisure Products 13 -20.4%-21.2%-42.3% GOLF 80% · HAS 30% · MAT -12%
Broadline Retail 14 -1.6%18.5%-47.2% EBAY 64% · AMZN 62% · OLLI 40%
Casinos & Gaming 20 -9.5%-24.2%-49.4% MCRI 91% · RRR 11% · BYD 8%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 29 4.1%14.7%-51.2% RL 256% · TPR 244% · ELA 193%
Consumer Electronics 11 -23.5%-22.7%-74.1% AXIL 2620% · GRMN 93% · SONO -45%
Other Specialty Retail 17 -29.0%-39.2%-77.8% TLF 99% · BBW 93% · WINA 66%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -73.1%-54.7%-78.6% GM 46% · TSLA 42% · F 6%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BRCBSBUXBROSQSRKDPSJMMedian
NameBlack Ro.StarbucksDutch Br.Restaura.Keurig D.JM Smuck. 
Mkt Price7.2592.1937.9670.7931.85119.8154.38
Mkt Cap0.2105.15.124.643.312.818.7
Rev LTM22438,3381,8829,69920,0909,1579,428
Op Inc LTM73,8731802,6153,3381,8042,209
FCF LTM-403,642951,6321,9651,5881,610
FCF 3Y Avg-3,241381,3881,5209621,388
CFO LTM134,9863661,9042,5271,9101,907
CFO 3Y Avg-5,4642781,6032,0881,3741,603

Growth & Margins

BRCBSBUXBROSQSRKDPSJMMedian
NameBlack Ro.StarbucksDutch Br.Restaura.Keurig D.JM Smuck. 
Rev Chg LTM24.6%4.5%29.6%6.5%27.5%5.1%15.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.1%30.5%12.9%11.8%2.7%11.8%
Rev Chg Q25.0%-1.4%32.5%4.6%75.6%5.0%15.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.0%-0.3%7.7%1.1%18.6%1.2%3.6%
Op Inc Chg LTM-40.5%1.0%34.4%11.4%-1.3%33.6%6.2%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg--6.9%97.3%7.8%5.3%12.9%7.8%
Op Mgn LTM3.2%10.1%9.6%27.0%16.6%19.7%13.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-11.9%8.8%27.3%20.4%17.6%17.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%0.8%0.2%0.3%-4.7%4.9%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM5.8%13.0%19.4%19.6%12.6%20.9%16.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-14.7%18.5%18.2%12.3%15.5%15.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-18.1%9.5%5.0%16.8%9.8%17.3%9.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-8.7%1.8%15.8%8.8%10.8%8.8%

Valuation

BRCBSBUXBROSQSRKDPSJMMedian
NameBlack Ro.StarbucksDutch Br.Restaura.Keurig D.JM Smuck. 
Mkt Cap0.2105.15.124.643.312.818.7
P/S0.72.72.72.52.21.42.3
P/Op Inc21.227.128.39.413.07.117.1
P/EBIT-33.328.927.59.414.416.315.3
P/E100.153.055.319.430.455.854.1
P/CFO11.921.114.012.917.16.713.4
Total Yield1.0%4.6%1.8%9.8%6.3%5.4%5.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.7%0.0%4.6%3.0%3.6%2.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.2%0.4%6.0%3.4%8.3%3.4%
D/E1.20.20.20.60.70.50.6
Net D/E1.10.20.20.60.70.50.6

Returns

BRCBSBUXBROSQSRKDPSJMMedian
NameBlack Ro.StarbucksDutch Br.Restaura.Keurig D.JM Smuck. 
1M Rtn-14.5%-6.6%-13.5%-7.2%2.2%-1.1%-6.9%
3M Rtn-11.9%-12.5%-43.8%-5.1%1.3%8.4%-8.5%
6M Rtn-48.7%-3.5%-32.1%-5.6%21.6%34.5%-4.6%
12M Rtn-67.0%20.5%-22.3%9.8%27.3%19.1%14.4%
3Y Rtn-73.7%8.7%52.0%24.9%24.6%20.7%22.6%
1M Excs Rtn-20.0%-10.0%-15.5%-9.5%-0.9%-3.9%-9.8%
3M Excs Rtn-16.1%-17.6%-46.8%-9.4%-1.3%5.5%-12.7%
6M Excs Rtn-63.3%-18.3%-46.6%-20.2%7.0%19.9%-19.2%
12M Excs Rtn-84.7%2.2%-36.4%-6.6%12.8%2.1%-2.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-156.9%-75.5%-24.4%-60.4%-73.8%-71.3%-72.6%

Comparison Analyses

null

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024
Single segment200161
Total200161


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024
Single segment-17-7
Total-17-7


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$7.25 
Market Cap ($ Bil)0.2 
First Trading Date09/12/2025 
Distance from 52W High-72.1% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$18.25$24.56
DMA Trenddownindeterminate
Distance from DMA-60.3%-70.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility73.7%76.2%
Downside Capture321.91286.56
Upside Capture204.8499.37
Correlation (SPY)21.4%31.5%
BRCB Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.741.641.461.371.860.32
Up Beta0.67-3.78-2.701.521.891.07
Down Beta4.273.062.610.991.80-1.22
Up Capture50%280%229%38%91%7%
Bmk +ve Days6162766132424
Stock +ve Days8162656111115
Down Capture387%370%274%209%170%99%
Bmk -ve Days16263760120328
Stock -ve Days13253668138145

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with BRCB
BRCB-69.2%76.3%-1.20-
Sector ETF (XLY)-4.0%19.4%-0.3437.7%
Equity (SPY)16.7%13.0%0.9131.8%
Gold (GLD)3.3%29.5%0.1113.9%
Commodities (DBC)45.0%20.9%1.67-11.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.8%13.8%0.0927.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-33.2%44.2%-0.7930.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with BRCB
BRCB-23.4%74.6%-1.34-
Sector ETF (XLY)5.4%24.1%0.1836.1%
Equity (SPY)13.9%17.1%0.6231.3%
Gold (GLD)18.5%18.9%0.7913.5%
Commodities (DBC)10.0%19.5%0.39-10.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.3%18.8%-0.0426.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)11.4%52.0%0.3929.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with BRCB
BRCB-12.5%74.6%-1.34-
Sector ETF (XLY)12.1%22.2%0.5036.1%
Equity (SPY)15.5%17.9%0.7331.3%
Gold (GLD)11.8%16.4%0.5913.5%
Commodities (DBC)8.2%18.1%0.37-10.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.5%20.7%0.1826.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)63.5%66.2%1.0329.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 91520264.9%
Average Daily Volume0.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.5 days
Basic Shares Quantity21.2 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares9.1%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 9/14/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/11/202619.1%12.7%26.6%
5/12/2026-30.3%-39.1%-35.8%
3/3/20269.6%8.3%-11.2%
11/12/2025-5.1%-14.9%-4.1%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive221
# Negative223
Median Positive14.3%10.5%26.6%
Median Negative-17.7%-27.0%-11.2%
Max Positive19.1%12.7%26.6%
Max Negative-30.3%-39.1%-35.8%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/11/202619.1%12.7%26.6%
5/12/2026-30.3%-39.1%-35.8%
3/3/20269.6%8.3%-11.2%
11/12/2025-5.1%-14.9%-4.1%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive221
# Negative223
Median Positive14.3%10.5%26.6%
Median Negative-17.7%-27.0%-11.2%
Max Positive19.1%12.7%26.6%
Max Negative-30.3%-39.1%-35.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/12/202610-Q
03/31/202605/13/202610-Q
12/31/202503/04/202610-K
09/30/202511/12/202510-Q
06/30/202509/15/2025424B4
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/12/202610-Q
03/31/202605/13/202610-Q
12/31/202503/04/202610-K
09/30/202511/12/202510-Q
06/30/202509/15/2025424B4

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 10/4/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/11/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 New Store OpeningsReported 38 5.6% RaisedGuidance: 36 for 2026
2026 RevenueReported255.00 Mil256.00 Mil257.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 256.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported34.00 Mil34.50 Mil35.00 Mil1.5% RaisedGuidance: 34.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported42.00 Mil42.50 Mil43.00 Mil4.9% RaisedGuidance: 40.50 Mil for 2026


Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/12/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 New Store OpeningsReported 36 0 AffirmedGuidance: 36 for 2026
2026 RevenueReported255.00 Mil256.00 Mil257.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 256.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported33.50 Mil34.00 Mil34.50 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 34.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported40.00 Mil40.50 Mil41.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 40.50 Mil for 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/3/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 New Store OpeningsReported 36 20.0% Higher NewActual: 30 for 2025
2026 Same Store Sales GrowthReported 5.0%    
2026 RevenueReported255.00 Mil256.00 Mil257.00 Mil28.3% Higher NewActual: 199.50 Mil for 2025
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported33.50 Mil34.00 Mil34.50 Mil27.1% Higher NewActual: 26.75 Mil for 2025
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported40.00 Mil40.50 Mil41.00 Mil30.6% Higher NewActual: 31.00 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 5/27/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Geyer, Clay HowardChief Operating OfficerDirectBuy52720266.90855403,740Form
2Schmidt, Michael RyanPrincipal Accounting OfficerDirectBuy52120266.987,10049,55849,558Form
3Wegener-Beyer, Jessica MicheleChief Marketing OfficerBeyer Family Living TrustBuy52120266.463,09820,01520,015Form
4Cynosure, Group, LlcSee footnoteBuy51920265.3512,042,71264,428,509106,546,876Form
5Cynosure, Group, LlcSee footnoteBuy51920265.351,600,0008,560,00010,250,664Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Geyer, Clay HowardChief Operating OfficerDirectBuy52720266.90855403,740Form
2Schmidt, Michael RyanPrincipal Accounting OfficerDirectBuy52120266.987,10049,55849,558Form
3Wegener-Beyer, Jessica MicheleChief Marketing OfficerBeyer Family Living TrustBuy52120266.463,09820,01520,015Form
4Cynosure, Group, LlcSee footnoteBuy51920265.3512,042,71264,428,509106,546,876Form
5Cynosure, Group, LlcSee footnoteBuy51920265.351,600,0008,560,00010,250,664Form
Core Cache Last Updated: 10/11/2026