Tearsheet

Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)


Market Price (12/12/2025): $24.48 | Market Cap: $362.5 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)


Market Price (12/12/2025): $24.48
Market Cap: $362.5 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Experiential Retail, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Experiential Retail, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
1 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BRCB Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. Initial Public Offering (IPO)
Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) became a publicly traded company on the Nasdaq Global Market around September 12-15, 2025, following its initial public offering. This event marked the transition of the company's shares from a non-trading status to an active stock on the market. The company successfully raised $338.2 million by selling 16,911,764 shares of Class A common stock at an initial public offering price of $20.00 per share.

2. Strong IPO Debut and Initial Surge
Upon its debut, BRCB shares opened around $26.50, significantly higher than the IPO price, indicating robust initial investor interest. The stock reached an all-time high of $30.40 on September 15, 2025, the same day the IPO was officially completed, showcasing strong early market performance.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BRCB Return
Peers Return-5%3%8%2%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%114%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BRCB Win Rate67% 
Peers Win Rate50%50%50%47%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BRCB Max Drawdown 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-17%-17%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SBUX, BROS, QSR, KDP, SJM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/11/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

BRCB has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven680 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven82 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven105 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven150.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven779 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BRCB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.2%12.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.0%1.0%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.7%-1.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.6%11.6%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.2%12.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.0%1.0%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.7%-1.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.6%11.6%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Black Rock Coffee Bar

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BRCBSBUXBROSQSRKDPSJMMedian
NameBlack Ro.StarbucksDutch Br.Restaura.Keurig D.JM Smuck. 
Mkt Price24.0284.7461.1270.4529.47100.9165.78
Mkt Cap0.496.27.823.140.011.617.3
Rev LTM-37,1841,5379,10616,1748,7739,106
Op Inc LTM-3,5811432,3483,4751,3322,348
FCF LTM-2,442651,3541,5996361,354
FCF 3Y Avg-3,145-181,2401,3367951,240
CFO LTM-4,7482781,5882,1289691,588
CFO 3Y Avg-5,6172061,4051,8551,2681,405

Growth & Margins

BRCBSBUXBROSQSRKDPSJMMedian
NameBlack Ro.StarbucksDutch Br.Restaura.Keurig D.JM Smuck. 
Rev Chg LTM-2.8%28.9%21.8%6.8%-0.7%6.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-5.0%31.4%14.2%5.9%2.5%5.9%
Rev Chg Q-5.5%25.2%15.9%10.7%2.6%10.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.3%5.9%3.8%2.6%0.7%2.6%
Op Mgn LTM-9.6%9.3%25.8%21.5%15.2%15.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-13.0%7.4%28.8%21.8%16.6%16.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.8%0.1%-0.6%0.0%-0.3%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM-12.8%18.1%17.4%13.2%11.0%13.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-15.4%16.5%18.1%12.1%14.8%15.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-6.6%4.3%14.9%9.9%7.2%7.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-8.7%-2.9%16.0%8.7%9.3%8.7%

Valuation

BRCBSBUXBROSQSRKDPSJMMedian
NameBlack Ro.StarbucksDutch Br.Restaura.Keurig D.JM Smuck. 
Mkt Cap0.496.27.823.140.011.617.3
P/S-2.64.32.32.11.32.3
P/EBIT--47.69.812.2-12.2
P/E-51.8107.124.521.9-9.724.5
P/CFO-20.323.913.216.312.016.3
Total Yield-4.8%0.9%9.2%6.4%-6.3%4.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.9%0.0%5.1%1.8%4.0%2.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg---2.4%5.8%3.3%-3.3%
D/E0.5-0.20.80.5-0.5
Net D/E0.4-0.10.70.5-0.4

Returns

BRCBSBUXBROSQSRKDPSJMMedian
NameBlack Ro.StarbucksDutch Br.Restaura.Keurig D.JM Smuck. 
1M Rtn-1.4%-1.9%9.1%2.3%10.3%-7.0%0.5%
3M Rtn-3.6%-8.1%12.1%7.8%-8.1%3.6%
6M Rtn--8.9%-14.4%5.1%-9.6%5.7%-8.9%
12M Rtn--11.6%15.5%4.7%-8.7%-7.3%-7.3%
3Y Rtn--11.3%83.2%15.6%-16.1%-28.0%-11.3%
1M Excs Rtn-2.1%-2.7%8.3%1.5%9.5%-7.8%-0.3%
3M Excs Rtn-17.6%-0.6%-10.1%8.2%4.4%-10.3%-5.4%
6M Excs Rtn--23.1%-28.6%-9.0%-23.8%-8.4%-23.1%
12M Excs Rtn--26.4%0.8%-9.6%-23.6%-24.9%-23.6%
3Y Excs Rtn--85.8%12.4%-56.2%-90.3%-102.0%-85.8%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,671,079
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-6.0%
Average Daily Volume398,325
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.20
Basic Shares Quantity14,808,173
Short % of Basic Shares11.3%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/12/2025-5.1%-14.9% 
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive000
# Negative111
Median Positive   
Median Negative-5.1%-14.9% 
Max Positive   
Max Negative-5.1%-14.9% 

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251112202510-Q 9/30/2025
123120249152025424B4 12/31/2024