Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)
Market Price (2/15/2026): $14.41 | Market Cap: $213.4 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)
Market Price (2/15/2026): $14.41Market Cap: $213.4 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Experiential Retail, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 59% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21% | ||
| Key risksBRCB key risks include [1] its heavy geographic concentration in the Western U.S., Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Experiential Retail, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 59% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21% |
| Key risksBRCB key risks include [1] its heavy geographic concentration in the Western U.S., Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Adjustments. Several analyst ratings and price targets for Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) were adjusted downward or initiated with caution during this period. JPMorgan initiated coverage with a "Neutral" rating and a $24 price target in October 2025, suggesting that much of the near-term upside was already reflected in the shares after their September IPO. More recently, on January 21, 2026, Raymond James Financial cut its price target from $28.00 to $26.00. Additionally, Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a "sell (e-)" rating on December 29, 2025.
2. Broader Market and Sector Valuation Concerns. The stock experienced selling pressure due to wider market sentiment, specifically "broader market volatility and investor concerns about valuation in the specialty coffee sector." This indicates that factors beyond company-specific performance contributed to the decline, as small-cap restaurant and beverage stocks faced general headwinds. Market concerns about the company's capital structure and potential dilution risk also played a role.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -43.8% change in BRCB stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.66 | 14.41 | -43.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 15 | 15 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BRCB | -43.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.0% | 46.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.2% | 32.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BRCB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 8.2% | 44.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 5.1% | 32.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BRCB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 14.3% | 44.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.7% | 32.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BRCB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 74.0% | 44.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 60.0% | 32.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BRCB Return | - | - | - | - | -19% | -36% | -48% |
| Peers Return | 18% | -5% | 3% | 8% | 1% | 4% | 29% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BRCB Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 25% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 50% | 50% | 47% | 52% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BRCB Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -29% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -17% | -17% | -12% | -5% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SBUX, BROS, QSR, KDP, SJM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
BRCB has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 779 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to SBUX, BROS, QSR, KDP, SJM
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.
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About Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Dutch Bros for coffee and energy drinks.
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A faster, drive-thru focused alternative to Starbucks.
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An early-stage, rapidly expanding Dutch Bros.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Coffee Beverages: A wide range of hot and iced espresso-based drinks, drip coffee, and cold brews.
- Signature Energy Drinks: Custom-crafted energy drink creations, often mixed with various flavors.
- Other Beverages: A selection of teas, smoothies, hot chocolates, and non-coffee options.
- Food Items: A limited menu of pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and other snacks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Black Rock Coffee Bar (symbol: BRCB) operates as a chain of drive-thru coffee shops, primarily selling its products directly to individual consumers rather than other businesses. Therefore, its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Daily Commuters and Routine Drinkers: This category includes individuals who frequent Black Rock Coffee Bar as part of their daily or weekly routine. They often stop for their morning coffee or an afternoon pick-me-up, valuing the speed and consistency of service, especially through the drive-thru model.
- Convenience Seekers: These customers choose Black Rock for its accessible locations and efficient drive-thru service. They are often on the go – commuters, parents with children, or individuals on short breaks – who prioritize a quick, easy, and reliable beverage or snack solution.
- Brand Loyalists and Affinity Customers: This group comprises individuals who specifically seek out Black Rock Coffee Bar due to a preference for its brand, specific menu items (e.g., signature drinks), customer service experience, or participation in its loyalty programs. They often have an established affinity for the brand over competitors.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Mark Davis, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Davis has served as Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board since 2023. Prior to joining Black Rock Coffee, Mr. Davis was Chief Operating Officer of Coffee & Bagel Brands from July 2019 to April 2023, where he oversaw operations for Einstein Bros., Bruegger's, Noah's, and Manhattan Bagels. From January 2015 to June 2019, he served as Chief Executive Officer of Tokyo Joe's, where he was also a board member and notably more than doubled the brand's national footprint. His previous experience also includes serving as Chief Operations Officer at Breckenridge-Wynkoop LLC (Breckenridge Brewery) and Vice President of Operations at Panera Bread Co.
Rodd Booth, Chief Financial Officer
Rodd Booth has served as Chief Financial Officer since October 2020. Before joining Black Rock Coffee, Mr. Booth worked as an Assurance Senior Manager and Audit Practice Leader at Aldrich CPA+ Advisors LLP from November 2014 to October 2020. He was previously an Audit Manager at Grant Thornton LLP, an international accounting firm, from 2011 to 2014. He was the company's CPA at Aldrich Advisors before transitioning to CFO. Black Rock Coffee received a strategic growth investment from The Cynosure Group in December 2020, following which the company continued to be led by its founders and executive management team, indicating his involvement with institutional capital.
Clay Geyer, Chief Operating Officer
Clay Geyer has served as Chief Operating Officer since January 2025. He previously held the role of Vice President of Operations from January 2022 to December 2024. Before officially joining Black Rock Coffee, Mr. Geyer was a franchisee of Black Rock Coffee from 2016 to 2021.
Jessica Wegener-Beyer, Chief Marketing Officer
Jessica Wegener-Beyer has served as Chief Marketing Officer since April 2024. Prior to Black Rock Coffee, Ms. Wegener-Beyer served as Chief Marketing Officer at eegee's, an Arizona-based sandwich restaurant chain, from November 2020 to January 2023. Before that, she was the Senior Director of Marketing at True Food Kitchen.
Robert Kaufmann, Chief Development Officer
Robert Kaufmann has served as Chief Development Officer since January 2025. He previously served as Vice President of Development from January 2015 to January 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) primarily revolve around its concentrated geographic presence, the highly competitive nature of the coffee industry, and a significant reliance on its proprietary "Fuel" line of beverages.
- Geographic Concentration and Expansion Risks: Black Rock Coffee Bar's current operations are heavily concentrated in the Western United States and Texas. This regional focus means that the company's business model and brand appeal have not been fully tested in diverse markets across the country. As the company pursues ambitious expansion plans to open hundreds of new stores by 2035, moving into new states and regions presents significant risks, including adapting to different consumer preferences, navigating varying real estate costs, and potentially straining operational consistency. Challenges in competitive site selection and staffing in these newer markets could impede its growth trajectory and profitability.
- Intense Competition: The café sector is highly competitive, with Black Rock Coffee Bar facing numerous larger and more established rivals such as Starbucks, Dunkin', Tim Hortons, Scooter's Coffee, Peet's Coffee, and Dutch Bros. These competitors often have deep pockets, investing heavily in digital loyalty programs, off-premise sales, and a wider array of beverage offerings, making the competition for consumer attention and dollars fierce.
- Reliance on "Fuel" Line and Associated Supply Chain Risk: A substantial portion of Black Rock Coffee Bar's revenue, approximately 24%, is derived from its proprietary "Fuel" energy drink line. This concentration of revenue in a single beverage category, coupled with the company's reliance on a single third-party manufacturer for this specific product line, introduces a significant supply chain risk. Any disruption to the manufacturing or supply of "Fuel" could jeopardize a considerable percentage of the company's revenue.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The emerging threat of highly automated, robot-powered drive-thru coffee bars. Several companies are actively developing and deploying robotic barista solutions and automated food service kiosks. These technologies promise significantly lower labor costs, consistent product quality, and potentially faster service than traditional human-operated drive-thrus. Should a competitor successfully scale a network of such automated drive-thrus, it could fundamentally disrupt the cost structure and operational model of companies like Black Rock Coffee Bar, offering a competitive advantage that directly challenges their current labor-intensive approach to delivering speed and convenience.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Black Rock Coffee Bar (symbol: BRCB) operates primarily within the coffee shop industry, offering a range of beverages including premium roasted coffees, teas, smoothies, and energy drinks, alongside pastries and other food items. The addressable markets for these products and services can be identified across the U.S. and North America.
The key addressable markets for Black Rock Coffee Bar are:
- U.S. Coffee Shop Market: This market, which encompasses sales from coffee chains and cafes, was valued at approximately $49.5 billion as of late 2024. Another estimate for the Coffee & Snack Shops industry in the United States projects a market size of $72.8 billion in 2025.
- U.S. Coffee Market (Overall): This broader market includes all coffee sales, encompassing coffee shops, retail coffee, and other related goods. The U.S. coffee market as a whole brings in an annual revenue of $88.5 billion. Other estimates for the U.S. coffee market size include $29.0 billion in 2025, expected to reach $39.7 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 3.54% from 2026-2034. Another source values the United States coffee market at $101.67 billion in 2024, projected to grow to $159.62 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 2.9% during 2025-2032. The U.S. coffee industry's annual sales are estimated at $85 billion, representing 20% of the global coffee market.
- North America Coffee Market: The coffee market in North America generated a revenue of $76.6 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $105.8 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% from 2025 to 2030. Another report valued the North America Coffee market at more than $33 billion in 2023. The North America Coffee market is projected to grow from $121.0 billion in 2024 to $160.5 billion by 2035.
- North America Specialty Coffee Market: Given Black Rock Coffee Bar's emphasis on premium roasted coffees and specialty coffee offerings, this segment is highly relevant. The North America Specialty Coffee Market was valued at $14.8 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $82 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 12% from 2022 to 2030.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Aggressive Store Expansion: The company has a stated long-term goal of opening at least 1,000 stores across the U.S. by 2035, significantly expanding its current footprint of 158 locations as of the first half of 2025. This unit growth is forecast to be around 20% annually in the coming years.
- Robust Same-Store Sales Growth: Black Rock Coffee Bar has demonstrated strong and accelerating same-store sales growth, with a 10.9% increase recorded in the second quarter of 2025, up from 9.2% in the first quarter of 2025. This indicates increased revenue from existing locations, contributing to overall growth.
- Product Innovation, particularly the "Fuel" Energy Drink Line: The proprietary "Fuel" energy drink line is a significant differentiator, attracting younger consumers and driving all-day traffic. This product innovation broadens the customer base beyond traditional coffee drinkers and helps capture a larger share of customer spending throughout the day.
- Growth of the Digital Loyalty Program: Launched in June 2024, the digital loyalty program had over 1.8 million members by June 30, 2025. Loyalty members account for 64% of all transactions and typically spend more per order, making the program a powerful tool for customer connection, retention, and increased transaction volume.
- Expansion into New Geographic Markets: As part of its overall unit growth strategy, Black Rock Coffee Bar is specifically targeting expansion into new markets such as California and Texas. This geographic diversification beyond its existing seven-state presence allows the company to tap into new customer bases and market opportunities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- Black Rock Coffee Bar completed its initial public offering (IPO) on September 12, 2025, listing on the Nasdaq Global Market under the ticker symbol BRCB.
- The company sold 16,911,764 shares of Class A common stock at $20.00 per share, including the full exercise of underwriters' option to purchase an additional 2,205,882 shares.
- The IPO generated aggregate gross proceeds of $338.2 million. The net proceeds from the offering are intended to redeem outstanding preferred LLC units, pay down debt, and fund general corporate purposes, including new store openings, supply chain upgrades, marketing, staffing, and technology.
Inbound Investments
- The Cynosure Group, an investment firm, took a stake in Black Rock Coffee Bar in 2020 and was a private equity sponsor for the company.
Capital Expenditures
- Black Rock Coffee Bar has an ambitious growth plan to open approximately 30 new stores in 2025.
- The company aims to reach 1,000 stores by 2035, maintaining an annual growth rate consistent with its historical average of 20% from 2020 to 2024.
- The blended average net capital expenditure per new store is approximately $600,000, net of tenant improvement allowances. The IPO proceeds will contribute to funding these new store openings.
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 59.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.7 |
| Rev LTM | 9,264 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,399 |
| FCF LTM | 1,400 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,292 |
| CFO LTM | 1,640 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,469 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.7 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/EBIT | 14.2 |
| P/E | 25.5 |
| P/CFO | 19.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -8.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -72.0% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | -5.1% | -14.9% | -4.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -14.9% | -4.1% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -5.1% | -14.9% | -4.1% |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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