Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)
Market Price (5/25/2026): $6.83 | Market Cap: $120.0 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)
Market Price (5/25/2026): $6.83Market Cap: $120.0 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -78% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Experiential Retail, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -155% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 127% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 76x Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.8% Key risksBRCB key risks include [1] its heavy geographic concentration in the Western U.S., Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -78% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Experiential Retail, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -155% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 127% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 76x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.8% |
| Key risksBRCB key risks include [1] its heavy geographic concentration in the Western U.S., Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Q1 2026 Earnings Miss: Black Rock Coffee Bar reported Q1 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.02 on May 12, 2026, falling short of the consensus estimate of $0.03 or $0.04 by 33.33% to 50%. Despite a 23.7% year-over-year revenue increase to $55.5 million, the market reacted negatively, leading to a significant stock price plunge of 30.39% in after-hours trading. The company's same-store sales growth of 5.2% also showed moderation from the 9.2% in the prior year, partly attributed to strategic densification causing cannibalization in existing markets.
2. Significant Insider Selling: On May 15, 2026, entities connected to a Black Rock Coffee Bar director executed a substantial sale of 11,618,782 shares (Class A equivalent) for an aggregate amount of $41,698,806.43. The proceeds from this sale were used to satisfy a Margin Loan Agreement, indicating a forced liquidation that likely exerted significant downward pressure and generated negative sentiment around the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -54.3% change in BRCB stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.91 | 6.81 | -54.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 15 | 15 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BRCB | -54.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.1% | 34.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.4% | 36.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -73.5% change in BRCB stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.66 | 6.81 | -73.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 15 | 15 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BRCB | -73.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 36.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.3% | 35.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BRCB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 36.0% | 36.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 21.8% | 34.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BRCB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 86.3% | 36.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 65.2% | 34.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BRCB Return | - | - | - | - | -19% | -70% | -76% |
| Peers Return | 18% | -5% | 3% | 8% | 1% | 7% | 33% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BRCB Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 25% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 50% | 50% | 47% | 52% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BRCB Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -72% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -30% | -28% | -22% | -27% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SBUX, BROS, QSR, KDP, SJM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
BRCB has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 874 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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BRCB has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 874 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 372 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few brief analogies for Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB):
- A premium version of Dutch Bros.
- Like Dutch Bros with a Starbucks sensibility.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Premium Coffee Beverages: A wide array of handcrafted coffee drinks, including Nitro Cold Brew, Americanos, and customizable Lattes, made with small-batch roasted premium beans.
- Proprietary Fuel Energy Drinks: Customizable iced and frozen energy drinks designed to be a bold, flexible, and refreshing alternative.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) primarily sells its products directly to individuals, referred to as "guests." Based on the company description, the following are up to three categories of customers it serves:
- Commuters and On-the-Go Consumers: This category includes individuals who frequent the drive-thru locations for quick and convenient access to premium caffeinated beverages as part of their daily routine. The company was founded as a drive-thru only concept and emphasizes efficiency.
- Social and Leisure Customers: These customers utilize Black Rock Coffee Bar's inviting lobbies as a space for social interactions, such as "casual catch-ups" or "first dates," seeking an elevated in-store experience and a sense of community.
- Work and Study Individuals: This category encompasses guests who use the comfortable lobby spaces for productive activities like "business meetings" or "study groups," leveraging the welcoming environment for work-related or academic purposes.
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Mark Davis, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Davis has served as the Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Black Rock Coffee Bar since 2023. Prior to joining Black Rock Coffee, Mr. Davis was the Chief Operating Officer of Coffee & Bagel Brands from July 2019 to April 2023, where he oversaw operations for brands including Einstein Bros., Bruegger's, Noah's, and Manhattan Bagels. Before this, he was the Chief Executive Officer of Tokyo Joe's from January 2015 to June 2019, where the brand significantly expanded its national footprint under his leadership. Mr. Davis also held roles as Chief Operations Officer at Breckenridge-Wynkoop LLC and Vice President of Operations at Panera Bread Co.
Rodd Booth, Chief Financial Officer
Rodd Booth has been the Chief Financial Officer of Black Rock Coffee Bar since October 2020. Before his tenure at Black Rock Coffee, Mr. Booth worked as an Assurance Senior Manager and Audit Practice Leader at Aldrich CPA+ Advisors LLP from November 2014 to October 2020. Earlier in his career, he served as an Audit Manager at Grant Thornton LLP, an international accounting firm, from 2011 to 2014. Mr. Booth is a Certified Public Accountant (Inactive).
Clay Geyer, Chief Operating Officer
Clay Geyer assumed the role of Chief Operating Officer in January 2025. Previously, he served as Black Rock Coffee Bar's Vice President of Operations from January 2022 to December 2024. Before joining the corporate team, Mr. Geyer was a franchisee of Black Rock Coffee from 2016 to 2021.
Robert Kaufmann, Chief Development Officer
Robert Kaufmann has served as the Chief Development Officer of Black Rock Coffee Bar since January 2025. Prior to this role, he was the Vice President of Development from January 2015 to January 2025.
Jessica Wegener-Beyer, Chief Marketing Officer
Jessica Wegener-Beyer became the Chief Marketing Officer in April 2024. Before joining Black Rock Coffee Bar, Ms. Wegener-Beyer was the Chief Marketing Officer at eegee's, an Arizona-based sandwich restaurant chain, from November 2020 to January 2023. She also served as Senior Director of Marketing at True Food Kitchen.
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Key Business Risks for Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)
- Intense Competition and Market Saturation: Black Rock Coffee Bar operates in a highly competitive industry with numerous established national chains, regional players, and independent coffee shops. As a "high-growth operator," the company's rapid expansion into new and existing markets will likely intensify this competition. Competitors may offer similar products, competitive pricing, or alternative experiences, potentially limiting Black Rock Coffee Bar's ability to gain market share, secure desirable locations, attract new customers, and maintain pricing power, which could hinder its growth objectives.
- Dependence on Attracting, Retaining, and Training Engaged Baristas, and Maintaining Consistent Customer Experience: The company's mission to "Fuel People Forward - One Connection, One Moment, One Cup at a Time" and its emphasis on "engaging baristas," "authentic connections," and "exceptional guest satisfaction" highlight the critical role of its workforce in delivering its brand promise. The business model is highly reliant on attracting, training, and retaining a large number of quality staff who can consistently provide an "elevated in-store experience." Labor shortages, increased labor costs, high employee turnover, or challenges in maintaining consistent training and service standards across a rapidly expanding network of locations could directly impact customer loyalty, operational efficiency, and brand reputation.
- Supply Chain Disruptions and Fluctuations in Commodity Costs: Black Rock Coffee Bar's commitment to "exclusive use of premium beans" and its operation of "two roasting facilities" make it vulnerable to external factors affecting its supply chain. The company is exposed to price volatility of coffee beans, which are global commodities, as well as potential supply shortages due to climate change, geopolitical events, or transportation issues. Significant increases in the cost of coffee beans or other essential ingredients and operational supplies, or disruptions to their sourcing and roasting processes, could adversely impact profitability and the ability to maintain consistent product quality and competitive pricing.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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The addressable markets for Black Rock Coffee Bar's main products and services in the United States are as follows:United States Coffee Shop Market
The U.S. coffee shop industry revenue is estimated at approximately $74.3 billion in 2025.United States Energy Drinks Market
The U.S. energy drinks market size was estimated at $25.01 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% from 2024 to 2030.AI Analysis | Feedback
Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- New Store Expansion: The company plans to continue its rapid growth by opening new locations. As of June 30, 2025, Black Rock Coffee Bar operated 158 locations, and its strategy involves scaling the business by adding new units and expanding into new and existing markets to deepen connections with guests and fuel daily routines.
- Growth of "Fuel" Energy Drinks: The proprietary Iced and Frozen Fuel energy drinks have quickly become a popular product category. Their continued growth is expected to drive increased transaction volume and guest frequency by offering a customizable, flavor-forward option that resonates with a wide demographic and provides an energizing alternative.
- Enhanced Guest Experience and Loyalty: Black Rock Coffee Bar focuses on "Connection, Caffeine, and Community" to foster strong guest relationships, excellent retention, and lasting brand loyalty. This strategy, supported by an exceptional guest satisfaction score and the inclusion of engaging lobbies in most new locations, is designed to increase guest frequency and average spending per visit.
- Ongoing Menu Innovation and Premium Offerings: The company's commitment to delivering high-quality, premium coffee and handcrafted beverages, along with a broad and flexible menu, supports long-term guest engagement. This includes the exclusive use of premium beans, small-batch roasting, and the ability to innovate, ensuring offerings remain competitive and appealing to a diverse customer base.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- Black Rock Coffee Bar completed an initial public offering (IPO) in September 2025.
- The IPO involved the offering of 16.9 million Class A shares at $20.00 per share.
- The offering raised approximately $314.6 million in gross proceeds.
Capital Expenditures
- In the last 12 months, capital expenditures for Black Rock Coffee Bar amounted to -$34.89 million.
- The company invested $12.0 million in capital expenditures during Q4 2025, primarily for funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
- Black Rock Coffee Bar plans to open 36 new stores in 2026, continuing its expansion, after adding 32 locations in 2025.
Trade Ideas
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| 04022026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | -1.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 63.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.6 |
| Rev LTM | 9,258 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,921 |
| FCF LTM | 1,268 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,349 |
| CFO LTM | 1,556 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,557 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 7.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 18.6 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 15.5 |
| P/EBIT | 11.6 |
| P/E | 51.8 |
| P/CFO | 19.2 |
| Total Yield | 2.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 6.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -35.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -77.7% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/12/2026 | -30.3% | -39.1% | |
| 3/3/2026 | 9.6% | 8.3% | -11.2% |
| 11/12/2025 | -5.1% | -14.9% | -4.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 9.6% | 8.3% | |
| Median Negative | -17.7% | -27.0% | -7.7% |
| Max Positive | 9.6% | 8.3% | |
| Max Negative | -30.3% | -39.1% | -11.2% |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 New Store Openings | 36 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 36 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Revenue | 255.00 Mil | 256.00 Mil | 257.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 256.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 33.50 Mil | 34.00 Mil | 34.50 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 34.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 40.00 Mil | 40.50 Mil | 41.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 40.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 New Store Openings | 36 | 20.0% | Higher New | Actual: 30 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Revenue | 255.00 Mil | 256.00 Mil | 257.00 Mil | 28.3% | Higher New | Actual: 199.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Same Store Sales Growth | 5.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 33.50 Mil | 34.00 Mil | 34.50 Mil | 27.1% | Higher New | Actual: 26.75 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 40.00 Mil | 40.50 Mil | 41.00 Mil | 30.6% | Higher New | Actual: 31.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schmidt, Michael Ryan | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 5212026 | 6.98 | 7,100 | 49,558 | 49,558 | Form |
| 2 | Wegener-Beyer, Jessica Michele | Chief Marketing Officer | Beyer Family Living Trust | Buy | 5212026 | 6.46 | 3,098 | 20,015 | 20,015 | Form |
| 3 | Cynosure, Group, Llc | See footnote | Buy | 5192026 | 5.35 | 12,042,712 | 64,428,509 | 106,546,876 | Form | |
| 4 | Cynosure, Group, Llc | See footnote | Buy | 5192026 | 5.35 | 1,600,000 | 8,560,000 | 10,250,664 | Form |
External Quote Links
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