Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -137%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.2 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -28%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Urban Mobility. Themes include Mobility as a Service (MaaS), Ride-Sharing & Micro-transit, and Smart City Transportation Solutions.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Urban Mobility. Themes include Mobility as a Service (MaaS), Ride-Sharing & Micro-transit, and Smart City Transportation Solutions.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -137%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.2 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -28%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

SWVL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Nasdaq Minimum Market Value Deficiency

Swvl received a Nasdaq notification regarding a Minimum Market Value Deficiency on November 6, 2025, which can signal compliance issues and potentially impact investor confidence.

2. Bearish Technical Outlook and Analyst Concerns

An AI analyst from TipRanks indicated a "Bearish" sentiment and a "bearish technical outlook" for SWVL stock as of October 28, 2025. This analysis highlighted "significant financial challenges" and "financial instability," along with a "Sell" technical sentiment signal. A forecast on November 12, 2025, also noted current sentiment as "Bearish" with a "Fear & Greed Index" showing "Fear."

3. Potential Challenges in Meeting Short-Term Obligations

According to an Investing.com analysis on September 8, 2025, Swvl maintained a current ratio of 0.65, which suggested potential challenges in meeting short-term obligations.

4. Concerns Over Negative Profitability and High Leverage by Analysts

Despite Swvl reporting net profits for the first half and third quarter of 2025, certain analyst takes, such as that from TipRanks' AI Analyst on October 28, 2025, continued to cite "negative profitability" and "high leverage" as "major concerns" contributing to a bearish outlook.

5. Historical Volatility and Lingering Market Fear

The company has a history of dramatic stock swings and a significant valuation plummet after its 2022 SPAC merger, leading to a "punishing 2024" with a substantial net loss. This historical volatility and market's "Fear" sentiment, as indicated by the Fear & Greed Index on November 12, 2025, may have contributed to a cautious or negative investor reaction despite recent positive financial reports.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SWVL Return----51%281%-52%-10%
Peers Return12%9%-12%24%57%-10%88%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SWVL Win Rate--12%42%50%10% 
Peers Win Rate53%40%32%55%48%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SWVL Max Drawdown----80%-4%-59% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-7%-19%-21%-11%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CP, FSTR, SWVL, UNP, CSX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSWVLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-99.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35935.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to CP, FSTR, SWVL, UNP, CSX


In The Past

Swvl's stock fell -99.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/28/2022. A -99.7% loss requires a 35935.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Swvl (SWVL)

Better Bets than Swvl (SWVL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SWVL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-14.0%-14.0%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.5%-10.5%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-9.7%-9.7%-9.7%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.7%-5.7%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-5.9%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-14.0%-14.0%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.5%-10.5%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-9.7%-9.7%-9.7%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.7%-5.7%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-5.9%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Swvl

Financials

SWVLCPFSTRUNPCSXMedian
NameSwvl Canadian.L.B. Fos.Union Pa.CSX  
Mkt Price3.0770.3426.50221.0034.0134.01
Mkt Cap-64.00.3130.963.463.7
Rev LTM1815,02950824,54614,12314,123
Op Inc LTM-55,556179,9704,8284,828
FCF LTM-2,393286,0131,5521,972
FCF 3Y Avg-2,222195,4342,5242,373
CFO LTM-5,489389,7274,6155,052
CFO 3Y Avg-4,970279,0275,0865,028

Growth & Margins

SWVLCPFSTRUNPCSXMedian
NameSwvl Canadian.L.B. Fos.Union Pa.CSX  
Rev Chg LTM22.5%4.0%-5.5%1.1%-3.8%1.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-22.2%2.8%0.2%-1.0%1.5%
Rev Chg Q123.4%3.2%0.6%2.5%-0.9%2.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM290.5%0.8%0.2%0.6%-0.2%0.6%
Op Mgn LTM-28.5%37.0%3.4%40.6%34.2%34.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-35.7%2.7%39.3%36.5%36.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%0.2%0.3%-0.7%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM-36.5%7.4%39.6%32.7%34.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-36.9%5.2%37.1%35.0%36.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-15.9%5.5%24.5%11.0%13.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-16.6%3.5%22.3%17.3%17.0%

Valuation

SWVLCPFSTRUNPCSXMedian
NameSwvl Canadian.L.B. Fos.Union Pa.CSX  
Mkt Cap-64.00.3130.963.463.7
P/S-4.30.55.34.54.4
P/EBIT-10.217.112.713.713.2
P/E-15.056.218.621.820.2
P/CFO-11.77.313.513.712.6
Total Yield-7.9%1.8%7.9%5.7%6.8%
Dividend Yield-1.2%0.0%2.5%1.2%1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.1%7.8%3.9%3.9%3.9%
D/E-0.40.30.30.30.3
Net D/E-0.40.30.20.30.3

Returns

SWVLCPFSTRUNPCSXMedian
NameSwvl Canadian.L.B. Fos.Union Pa.CSX  
1M Rtn-6.1%-8.1%1.2%-2.2%-7.1%-6.1%
3M Rtn-27.4%-4.2%14.8%1.0%-5.1%-4.2%
6M Rtn-36.6%-13.4%35.2%-2.5%9.9%-2.5%
12M Rtn-35.9%-4.2%0.0%-4.0%-1.7%-4.0%
3Y Rtn-69.3%-8.2%140.9%12.6%15.0%12.6%
1M Excs Rtn-6.2%-8.2%1.1%-2.4%-7.2%-6.2%
3M Excs Rtn-29.2%-9.9%11.6%-4.7%-10.6%-9.9%
6M Excs Rtn-48.5%-25.3%23.3%-14.4%-2.0%-14.4%
12M Excs Rtn-27.8%-18.2%1.2%-17.4%-16.8%-17.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-137.3%-76.3%46.3%-57.3%-54.9%-57.3%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,682
Short Interest: % Change Since 101520250.6%
Average Daily Volume13,509
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.23

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202590820256-K 6/30/2025
331202551420256-K 3/31/2025
12312024402202520-F 12/31/2024
6302024123120246-K 6/30/2024
12312023430202420-F 12/31/2023
6302023122720236-K 6/30/2023
123120221031202320-F 12/31/2022
930202271420236-K 9/30/2022
630202281720226-K 6/30/2022
12312021415202220-F 12/31/2021
123120203152022424B3 12/31/2020

Insider Activity

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