Swvl (SWVL)
Market Price (11/9/2025): $2.96 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation
Swvl (SWVL)
Market Price (11/9/2025): $2.96Market Cap: $-Sector: IndustrialsIndustry: Rail Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -156% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.2 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -28% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -156% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.2 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -28% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
SWVL Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SWVL Return | - | - | - | -51% | 281% | -54% | -14% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 9% | -12% | 24% | 57% | -9% | 91% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SWVL Win Rate | - | - | 12% | 42% | 50% | 10% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 40% | 32% | 55% | 48% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SWVL Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -80% | -4% | -59% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -7% | -19% | -21% | -11% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CP, FSTR, SWVL, UNP, CSX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/7/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SWVL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -99.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35935.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to CP, FSTR, SWVL, UNP, CSX
In The Past
Swvl's stock fell -99.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/28/2022. A -99.7% loss requires a 35935.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SWVL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.8% | -10.8% | -10.8% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -17.5% | -17.5% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.9% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.6% | -7.6% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.8% | -10.8% | -10.8% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -17.5% | -17.5% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.9% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.6% | -7.6% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Swvl
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 35.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 65.2 |
| Rev LTM | 14,123 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,828 |
| FCF LTM | 1,972 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,373 |
| CFO LTM | 5,052 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,028 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 34.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 36.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 34.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 65.2 |
| P/S | 4.5 |
| P/EBIT | 13.5 |
| P/E | 20.7 |
| P/CFO | 12.6 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 16.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -55.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 9082025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4022025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 6302024 | 12312024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4302024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 6302023 | 12272023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 10312023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 7142023 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8172022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4152022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 12312020 | 3152022 | 424B3 12/31/2020 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |