Pegasystems (PEGA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $55.09 | Market Cap: $9.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Pegasystems (PEGA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $55.09Market Cap: $9.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 56% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 56% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PEGA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points regarding Pegasystems (PEGA) stock movement for the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Pegasystems reported strong Q3 2025 financial performance in October, with a 14% year-over-year growth in Annual Contract Value (ACV) and a 27% increase in Pega Cloud ACV. The company also saw a 17% increase in total revenue, reaching $381.35 million for the quarter, and a significant turnaround in net income.
2. In September 2025, Pegasystems announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.03 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, maintaining its current dividend program.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PEGA Return | 68% | -16% | -69% | 43% | 91% | 20% | 42% |
| Peers Return | 36% | 23% | -32% | 46% | 22% | -7% | 89% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PEGA Win Rate | 75% | 33% | 8% | 58% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 57% | 37% | 57% | 63% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PEGA Max Drawdown | -23% | -24% | -73% | -2% | -8% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -7% | -42% | -11% | -17% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ORCL, CRM, NOW, OTEX, VRNT. See PEGA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PEGA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -79.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 382.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -32.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ORCL, CRM, NOW, OTEX, VRNT
In The Past
Pegasystems's stock fell -79.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -79.3% loss requires a 382.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Pegasystems Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return | ||
| Pegasystems vs Microsoft: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Pegasystems vs Clear Secure: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| null | |||
| Better Bet Than PEGA Stock: Pay Less Than Pegasystems To Get More From BMRN, CDE | |||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Pegasystems Stock with 19% Return (vs. 30% YTD) [7/29/2025] | Notification | ||
| PEGA Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Pegasystems Market Price | Market Price | ||
| Pegasystems Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 91.1% in 2024 and -5.3% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Pegasystems (PEGA) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Better Bet Than Oracle Stock: Pay Less To Get More From PEGA, NICE | August 5th, 2025 | ||
| PEGA Stock Up 19% after 5-Day Win Streak | July 30th, 2025 | ||
| Better Bet Than SAP Stock: Pay Less To Get More From PEGA, IDCC | July 17th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PEGA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Pegasystems
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 207.73 |
| Mkt Cap | 172.9 |
| Rev LTM | 12,667 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,755 |
| FCF LTM | 906 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,209 |
| CFO LTM | 4,841 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,011 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 172.9 |
| P/S | 6.6 |
| P/EBIT | 31.1 |
| P/E | 39.1 |
| P/CFO | 22.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -12.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 101.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 34.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10212025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7222025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4222025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |