PagerDuty (PD)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $12.805 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
PagerDuty (PD)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $12.805Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -86%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -10 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Key risksPD key risks include [1] intense competition from larger, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -86%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -10 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.1% |
| Key risksPD key risks include [1] intense competition from larger, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why PagerDuty (PD) stock moved by approximately -23.5% in the period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Weaker-than-Expected Revenue and Future Guidance: PagerDuty announced its third-quarter fiscal year 2026 financial results on November 25, 2025, reporting revenue of $124.5 million, which narrowly missed analyst estimates of $125 million. More significantly, the company's revenue guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 was set between $122.0 million and $124.0 million, representing only 0% to 2% year-over-year growth, falling below analyst expectations of $127.4 million. This outlook suggested a significant slowdown in growth, negatively impacting investor confidence.
2. Decline in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) Growth and Retention: The company's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) as of October 31, 2025, grew by a modest 3% year-over-year to $497 million, missing analyst estimates of $508.3 million. Additionally, the dollar-based net retention rate decreased to 100% as of October 31, 2025, down from 107% in the previous year, indicating that existing customers were not expanding their spending at the expected rate and possibly even reducing it.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PD Return | 78% | -17% | -24% | -13% | -21% | -29% | -45% |
| Peers Return | � | � | -50% | 63% | 12% | -23% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PD Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 50% | 28% | 60% | 53% | 35% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PD Max Drawdown | -45% | -26% | -44% | -26% | -25% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -58% | -15% | -25% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NOW, TEAM, DDOG, DT, GTLB. See PD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -65.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 189.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 148 days |
Compare to NOW, TEAM, PEGA, OPEN, VRNT
In The Past
PagerDuty's stock fell -65.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -65.4% loss requires a 189.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| PagerDuty Earnings Notes | |||
| Can PagerDuty Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | Return | ||
| Time To Buy PagerDuty Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| PD Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Day 10 of Gains Streak for PagerDuty Stock with 15% Return (vs. -12% YTD) [7/8/2025] | |||
| PagerDuty Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -21.8% in 2025 and -17.5% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| PagerDuty vs. S&P500 Correlation | Correlation | ||
| PagerDuty Price Volatility | Volatility | ||
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
| PagerDuty Market Price | Market Price | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| PagerDuty Stock To $15? | November 27th, 2025 | ||
| Is PagerDuty Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | November 27th, 2025 | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: KTTA, ZYXI, KALA | Losers: GORV, WHLR, PD | November 27th, 2025 | ||
| PD Stock Up 15% after 10-Day Win Streak | July 9th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for PagerDuty
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 90.31 |
| Mkt Cap | 22.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,532 |
| Op Inc LTM | -27 |
| FCF LTM | 669 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 555 |
| CFO LTM | 748 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 615 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 20.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 22.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -3.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 22.9 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| P/EBIT | 64.7 |
| P/E | 19.4 |
| P/CFO | 28.3 |
| Total Yield | 0.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -12.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -35.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -7.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -47.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -73.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/25/2025 | -23.3% | -20.9% | |
| 9/3/2025 | 6.3% | 2.2% | 5.6% |
| 5/29/2025 | -11.4% | -4.5% | -5.1% |
| 3/13/2025 | 17.7% | 20.8% | -0.9% |
| 11/26/2024 | 0.5% | 3.1% | -14.7% |
| 9/3/2024 | -1.1% | -3.3% | -1.7% |
| 3/14/2024 | -7.3% | -0.9% | -8.6% |
| 11/30/2023 | -0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 13.0% | 9.9% | 12.6% |
| Median Negative | -7.9% | -5.1% | -5.5% |
| Max Positive | 26.2% | 34.7% | 40.1% |
| Max Negative | -25.8% | -33.1% | -21.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 11262025 | 10-Q 10/31/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9042025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5302025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3172025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11272024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9042024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5312024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3152024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9012023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6022023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3162023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12022022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9022022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6032022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3172022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |