Tearsheet

PagerDuty (PD)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $12.805 | Market Cap: $1.2 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

PagerDuty (PD)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $12.805
Market Cap: $1.2 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -86%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -10 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.1%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
  Key risks
PD key risks include [1] intense competition from larger, Show more.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -86%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -10 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.1%
5 Key risks
PD key risks include [1] intense competition from larger, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why PagerDuty (PD) stock moved by approximately -23.5% in the period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:



1. Weaker-than-Expected Revenue and Future Guidance: PagerDuty announced its third-quarter fiscal year 2026 financial results on November 25, 2025, reporting revenue of $124.5 million, which narrowly missed analyst estimates of $125 million. More significantly, the company's revenue guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 was set between $122.0 million and $124.0 million, representing only 0% to 2% year-over-year growth, falling below analyst expectations of $127.4 million. This outlook suggested a significant slowdown in growth, negatively impacting investor confidence.

2. Decline in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) Growth and Retention: The company's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) as of October 31, 2025, grew by a modest 3% year-over-year to $497 million, missing analyst estimates of $508.3 million. Additionally, the dollar-based net retention rate decreased to 100% as of October 31, 2025, down from 107% in the previous year, indicating that existing customers were not expanding their spending at the expected rate and possibly even reducing it.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PD Return78%-17%-24%-13%-21%-29%-45%
Peers Return-50%63%12%-23%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PD Win Rate58%42%58%50%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate50%28%60%53%35% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PD Max Drawdown-45%-26%-44%-26%-25%-36% 
Peers Max Drawdown-58%-15%-25%-34% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NOW, TEAM, DDOG, DT, GTLB. See PD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-65.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven189.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-49.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven97.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven60 days148 days

Compare to NOW, TEAM, PEGA, OPEN, VRNT


In The Past

PagerDuty's stock fell -65.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -65.4% loss requires a 189.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About PagerDuty (PD)

Better Bets than PagerDuty (PD)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for PagerDuty

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PDNOWTEAMDDOGDTGTLBMedian
NamePagerDutyServiceN.AtlassianDatadog DynatraceGitLab  
Mkt Price12.81156.48161.98136.7143.9137.8790.31
Mkt Cap1.532.542.647.713.26.322.9
Rev LTM48912,6675,4603,2121,8539062,532
Op Inc LTM-101,755-195-43226-85-27
FCF LTM1093,9051,456865473242669
FCF 3Y Avg903,2091,23769841344555
CFO LTM1214,8411,509988507250748
CFO 3Y Avg994,0111,27178944149615

Growth & Margins

PDNOWTEAMDDOGDTGTLBMedian
NamePagerDutyServiceN.AtlassianDatadog DynatraceGitLab  
Rev Chg LTM7.0%21.1%19.5%26.6%18.5%27.4%20.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg12.1%22.3%22.2%28.0%21.2%33.8%22.2%
Rev Chg Q4.7%21.8%20.6%28.4%18.1%24.6%21.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.2%5.1%4.7%6.5%4.3%5.6%4.9%
Op Mgn LTM-2.1%13.9%-3.6%-1.3%12.2%-9.3%-1.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-13.7%11.2%-5.1%-1.1%10.4%-22.8%-3.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3.8%0.6%-1.1%-0.8%0.9%2.4%0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM24.7%38.2%27.6%30.8%27.4%27.6%27.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg21.5%37.9%27.6%30.3%28.0%4.3%27.8%
FCF/Rev LTM22.2%30.8%26.7%26.9%25.5%26.7%26.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg19.4%30.3%26.9%26.8%26.3%3.7%26.6%

Valuation

PDNOWTEAMDDOGDTGTLBMedian
NamePagerDutyServiceN.AtlassianDatadog DynatraceGitLab  
Mkt Cap1.532.542.647.713.26.322.9
P/S3.115.17.715.57.97.07.8
P/EBIT-86.6-450.7363.564.7-74.964.7
P/E9.9110.4-227.3465.028.9-136.419.4
P/CFO12.739.527.850.228.825.328.3
Total Yield10.1%0.9%-0.4%0.2%3.5%-0.7%0.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.0%2.8%1.8%2.8%0.6%2.0%
D/E-0.00.00.00.00.00.0
Net D/E--0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1

Returns

PDNOWTEAMDDOGDTGTLBMedian
NamePagerDutyServiceN.AtlassianDatadog DynatraceGitLab  
1M Rtn-13.8%-81.3%10.9%-24.2%-2.7%-11.2%-12.5%
3M Rtn-19.5%-83.5%-6.0%1.8%-8.6%-24.9%-14.1%
6M Rtn-10.2%-84.1%-17.4%5.1%-21.1%-9.9%-13.8%
12M Rtn-34.6%-86.0%-40.0%-12.9%-20.9%-36.0%-35.3%
3Y Rtn-51.8%-60.3%10.0%75.7%13.5%-23.9%-7.0%
1M Excs Rtn-14.5%-82.0%10.2%-24.9%-3.5%-11.9%-13.2%
3M Excs Rtn-23.4%-84.8%-5.9%-1.4%-11.0%-25.7%-17.2%
6M Excs Rtn-22.6%-96.4%-29.8%-7.3%-33.5%-22.3%-26.2%
12M Excs Rtn-47.6%-97.1%-52.9%-21.7%-30.4%-46.5%-47.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-118.2%-129.5%-55.8%9.1%-53.8%-91.5%-73.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment431371281 166
Total431371281 166


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment   795 
Total   795 


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,610,870
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-12.2%
Average Daily Volume4,092,593
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.62
Basic Shares Quantity92,836,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/25/2025-23.3%-20.9% 
9/3/20256.3%2.2%5.6%
5/29/2025-11.4%-4.5%-5.1%
3/13/202517.7%20.8%-0.9%
11/26/20240.5%3.1%-14.7%
9/3/2024-1.1%-3.3%-1.7%
3/14/2024-7.3%-0.9%-8.6%
11/30/2023-0.3%0.5%0.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101010
# Negative141414
Median Positive13.0%9.9%12.6%
Median Negative-7.9%-5.1%-5.5%
Max Positive26.2%34.7%40.1%
Max Negative-25.8%-33.1%-21.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251126202510-Q 10/31/2025
7312025904202510-Q 7/31/2025
4302025530202510-Q 4/30/2025
1312025317202510-K 1/31/2025
103120241127202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024904202410-Q 7/31/2024
4302024531202410-Q 4/30/2024
1312024315202410-K 1/31/2024
103120231201202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023901202310-Q 7/31/2023
4302023602202310-Q 4/30/2023
1312023316202310-K 1/31/2023
103120221202202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022902202210-Q 7/31/2022
4302022603202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022317202210-K 1/31/2022