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PagerDuty (PD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.99 | Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

PagerDuty (PD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.99
Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.9%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.1%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 7.6%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
  
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 7.6%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.9%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.1%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, PagerDuty's stock (PD) experienced a notable decline of 27.9%, primarily driven by the company's mixed third-quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings report and a cautious outlook for future growth.



1. Weak Q4 Revenue Guidance and Full-Year Revenue Forecast Cut: PagerDuty's most significant challenge was its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue guidance, which fell below analyst expectations, implying a very low year-over-year growth rate of approximately 1.3%. The company also trimmed its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue forecast, citing a pricing and go-to-market transition. This downbeat forecast was a major catalyst for the stock's crash in late November.

2. Missed Revenue Estimates in Q3 Fiscal Year 2026: Although PagerDuty surpassed adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates, its reported revenue of $124.5 million for the third quarter slightly missed Wall Street's consensus of $124.9 million. This revenue shortfall, coupled with the weak future guidance, contributed to investor concerns.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PD Return78%-17%-24%-13%-21%-36%-50%
Peers Return56%13%-60%94%16%55%147%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PD Win Rate58%42%58%50%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate65%53%25%58%50%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PD Max Drawdown-45%-26%-44%-26%-25%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-19%-64%-14%-29%-44% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NOW, TEAM, PEGA, OPEN, VRNT. See PD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-65.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven189.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-49.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven97.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven60 days148 days

Compare to NOW, TEAM, PEGA, OPEN, VRNT


In The Past

PagerDuty's stock fell -65.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -65.4% loss requires a 189.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About PagerDuty (PD)

Better Bets than PagerDuty (PD)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for PagerDuty

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PDNOWTEAMPEGAOPENVRNTMedian
NamePagerDutyServiceN.AtlassianPegasyst.Opendoor.Verint S. 
Mkt Price12.07832.90156.7554.726.94-54.72
Mkt Cap1.1172.941.29.35.1-9.3
Rev LTM48412,6675,4601,7324,719-4,719
Op Inc LTM-291,755-195303-204--29
FCF LTM1073,9051,456431887-887
FCF 3Y Avg823,2091,2373001,349-1,237
CFO LTM1184,8411,509442899-899
CFO 3Y Avg914,0111,2713151,374-1,271

Growth & Margins

PDNOWTEAMPEGAOPENVRNTMedian
NamePagerDutyServiceN.AtlassianPegasyst.Opendoor.Verint S. 
Rev Chg LTM8.2%21.1%19.5%17.0%-4.5%-17.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg14.3%22.3%22.2%11.9%-31.7%-14.3%
Rev Chg Q6.4%21.8%20.6%17.3%-33.6%-17.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.6%5.1%4.7%3.4%-8.9%-3.4%
Op Mgn LTM-5.9%13.9%-3.6%17.5%-4.3%--3.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-17.1%11.2%-5.1%9.8%-5.4%--5.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.2%0.6%-1.1%0.8%-0.4%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM24.4%38.2%27.6%25.5%19.1%-25.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg20.0%37.9%27.6%20.2%15.2%-20.2%
FCF/Rev LTM22.2%30.8%26.7%24.9%18.8%-24.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg18.0%30.3%26.9%19.2%14.8%-19.2%

Valuation

PDNOWTEAMPEGAOPENVRNTMedian
NamePagerDutyServiceN.AtlassianPegasyst.Opendoor.Verint S. 
Mkt Cap1.1172.941.29.35.1-9.3
P/S2.915.17.75.71.3-5.7
P/EBIT-230.386.6-450.729.5-32.7--32.7
P/E-115.3110.4-227.335.3-18.7--18.7
P/CFO12.039.527.822.26.6-22.2
Total Yield-0.9%0.9%-0.4%3.0%-5.4%--0.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.7%2.0%2.8%4.5%60.3%-4.5%
D/E0.30.00.00.00.3-0.0
Net D/E-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.00.1--0.0

Returns

PDNOWTEAMPEGAOPENVRNTMedian
NamePagerDutyServiceN.AtlassianPegasyst.Opendoor.Verint S. 
1M Rtn-25.1%-8.9%-11.0%-13.1%-8.6%--11.0%
3M Rtn-22.6%-9.4%-8.2%1.6%35.3%--8.2%
6M Rtn-20.6%-17.8%-25.7%8.0%1,005.8%--17.8%
12M Rtn-43.1%-21.2%-41.6%14.8%221.3%--21.2%
3Y Rtn-49.0%101.7%11.2%197.9%305.8%-101.7%
1M Excs Rtn-25.0%-8.8%-10.9%-13.1%-8.5%--10.9%
3M Excs Rtn-32.5%-12.7%-12.1%-3.6%11.1%--12.1%
6M Excs Rtn-35.3%-32.5%-40.4%-6.7%991.1%--32.5%
12M Excs Rtn-56.7%-34.2%-54.1%1.9%183.0%--34.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-116.2%34.4%-48.8%132.9%208.5%-34.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment431371281214166
Total431371281214166


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,532,824
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-4.9%
Average Daily Volume1,487,958
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.06
Basic Shares Quantity92,600,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025904202510-Q 7/31/2025
4302025530202510-Q 4/30/2025
1312025317202510-K 1/31/2025
103120241127202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024904202410-Q 7/31/2024
4302024531202410-Q 4/30/2024
1312024315202410-K 1/31/2024
103120231201202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023901202310-Q 7/31/2023
4302023602202310-Q 4/30/2023
1312023316202310-K 1/31/2023
103120221202202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022902202210-Q 7/31/2022
4302022603202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022317202210-K 1/31/2022
103120211208202110-Q 10/31/2021