PagerDuty (PD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.99 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
PagerDuty (PD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.99Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.9% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.1% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.6% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.9% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, PagerDuty's stock (PD) experienced a notable decline of 27.9%, primarily driven by the company's mixed third-quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings report and a cautious outlook for future growth.
1. Weak Q4 Revenue Guidance and Full-Year Revenue Forecast Cut: PagerDuty's most significant challenge was its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue guidance, which fell below analyst expectations, implying a very low year-over-year growth rate of approximately 1.3%. The company also trimmed its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue forecast, citing a pricing and go-to-market transition. This downbeat forecast was a major catalyst for the stock's crash in late November.
2. Missed Revenue Estimates in Q3 Fiscal Year 2026: Although PagerDuty surpassed adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates, its reported revenue of $124.5 million for the third quarter slightly missed Wall Street's consensus of $124.9 million. This revenue shortfall, coupled with the weak future guidance, contributed to investor concerns.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PD Return | 78% | -17% | -24% | -13% | -21% | -36% | -50% |
| Peers Return | 56% | 13% | -60% | 94% | 16% | 55% | 147% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PD Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 53% | 25% | 58% | 50% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PD Max Drawdown | -45% | -26% | -44% | -26% | -25% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -19% | -64% | -14% | -29% | -44% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NOW, TEAM, PEGA, OPEN, VRNT. See PD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -65.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 189.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 148 days |
Compare to NOW, TEAM, PEGA, OPEN, VRNT
In The Past
PagerDuty's stock fell -65.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -65.4% loss requires a 189.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for PagerDuty
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 54.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.3 |
| Rev LTM | 4,719 |
| Op Inc LTM | -29 |
| FCF LTM | 887 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,237 |
| CFO LTM | 899 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,271 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 17.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -3.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -5.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.3 |
| P/S | 5.7 |
| P/EBIT | -32.7 |
| P/E | -18.7 |
| P/CFO | 22.2 |
| Total Yield | -0.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -17.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -21.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 101.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -10.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -32.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -34.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 34.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9042025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5302025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3172025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11272024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9042024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5312024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3152024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9012023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6022023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3162023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12022022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9022022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6032022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3172022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12082021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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