Ouster (OUST)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.95 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Electronic Components
Ouster (OUST)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.95Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Electronic Components
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -101 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -73% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 162% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Machine Vision, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 185% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.8% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 104% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Machine Vision, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -101 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -73% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 162% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 185% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.8% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 104% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OUST Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting why Ouster's (OUST) stock moved by -16.3% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Ouster reported a larger-than-expected loss per share for Q3 2025.
The company announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 4, 2025, posting an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.37, which significantly missed the analyst forecast of -$0.16. This earnings miss led to a 12.7% drop in the stock price during after-hours trading.
2. The company experienced a sequential decline in non-GAAP gross margin and an increased adjusted EBITDA loss in Q3 2025.
While revenue grew year-over-year, the non-GAAP gross margin decreased sequentially from 52% in Q2 2025 to 47% in Q3 2025. Additionally, the Adjusted EBITDA loss for Q3 2025 was $10 million, representing a $4 million decline sequentially.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OUST Return | - | -61% | -83% | -11% | 59% | 80% | -84% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 17% | 9% | 63% | 95% | 108% | 1009% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OUST Win Rate | 100% | 42% | 25% | 42% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 63% | 45% | 53% | 73% | 64% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OUST Max Drawdown | - | -62% | -84% | -62% | -39% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -10% | -26% | -11% | -6% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GLW, BELFA, APH, CLS, COHR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OUST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4650.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -16.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
Compare to GLW, BELFA, APH, CLS, COHR
In The Past
Ouster's stock fell -97.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/10/2021. A -97.9% loss requires a 4650.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With Ouster Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OUST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ouster
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 139.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 31.1 |
| Rev LTM | 8,663 |
| Op Inc LTM | 781 |
| FCF LTM | 236 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 230 |
| CFO LTM | 539 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 501 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 22.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 34.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 31.1 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | 30.0 |
| P/E | 39.6 |
| P/CFO | 31.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 23.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 90.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 82.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 284.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 16.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 75.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 70.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 214.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5122023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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