Tearsheet

Octave Specialty (OSG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.77 | Market Cap: $421.9 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Life & Health Insurance

Octave Specialty (OSG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.77
Market Cap: $421.9 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Life & Health Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 144%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.9%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -51%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 144%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.
2 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.9%
3 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -51%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OSG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are some key points regarding Octave Specialty (OSG) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Octave Specialty Group (OSG) reported a net loss of $32 million for the third quarter of 2025, translating to a loss of $0.67 per diluted share. Despite the net loss, the company's stock rose by 4.95% in after-hours trading on November 11, 2025, closing at $9.08. This increase was driven by a better-than-expected earnings per share (EPS) result of -$0.06, which surpassed the forecast of -$0.23.

2. While EPS exceeded expectations, Octave Specialty Group's revenue for Q3 2025 fell short, coming in at $17.03 million against a forecast of $27.46 million, a miss of 37.98%.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OSG Return------ 
Peers Return-8%36%12%10%24%6%103%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OSG Win Rate-----  
Peers Win Rate53%68%57%58%63%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OSG Max Drawdown------ 
Peers Max Drawdown-55%-2%-12%-18%-4%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AFL, MFC, MET, PRU, PFG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

OSG has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4470 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Octave Specialty (OSG)

Better Bets than Octave Specialty (OSG)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OSG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Octave Specialty

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OSGAFLMFCMETPRUPFGMedian
NameOctave S.Aflac Manulife.MetLife Prudenti.Principa. 
Mkt Price8.84109.0435.1077.51109.5785.9481.72
Mkt Cap-57.860.051.538.919.151.5
Rev LTM25017,96247,46270,76057,92615,80132,712
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-1272,57328,60814,6275,2744,1724,723
FCF 3Y Avg-13,05723,42413,5455,7814,0294,905
CFO LTM-1272,57328,60814,6275,2744,2524,763
CFO 3Y Avg-13,05723,42413,5455,7814,1174,949

Growth & Margins

OSGAFLMFCMETPRUPFGMedian
NameOctave S.Aflac Manulife.MetLife Prudenti.Principa. 
Rev Chg LTM143.9%3.0%10.0%0.2%-21.0%12.3%6.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg253.2%-3.5%1.5%1.3%1.9%-4.1%1.4%
Rev Chg Q-4.9%57.9%21.7%-7.7%-8.2%22.2%8.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.3%10.8%6.1%-2.0%-2.7%4.4%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM-51.0%14.3%60.3%20.7%9.1%26.9%17.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg309.5%16.8%54.5%19.6%9.4%28.1%23.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-51.0%14.3%60.3%20.7%9.1%26.4%17.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg309.5%16.8%54.5%19.6%9.4%27.5%23.6%

Valuation

OSGAFLMFCMETPRUPFGMedian
NameOctave S.Aflac Manulife.MetLife Prudenti.Principa. 
Mkt Cap-57.860.051.538.919.151.5
P/S-3.31.20.80.61.21.2
P/EBIT-11.26.19.2--9.2
P/E-14.29.014.314.111.714.1
P/CFO-23.01.93.77.04.34.3
Total Yield-9.0%17.0%9.8%12.3%12.2%12.2%
Dividend Yield-2.0%5.9%2.8%5.2%3.7%3.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.7%51.2%25.3%15.0%21.8%21.8%
D/E-0.10.20.40.60.20.2
Net D/E--1.1-0.2-1.7-1.3-1.5-1.3

Returns

OSGAFLMFCMETPRUPFGMedian
NameOctave S.Aflac Manulife.MetLife Prudenti.Principa. 
1M Rtn-2.5%7.2%-2.1%6.1%4.5%4.5%
3M Rtn-2.7%16.3%-3.1%3.3%9.3%3.3%
6M Rtn-7.2%12.0%-0.2%8.3%14.8%8.3%
12M Rtn-4.4%13.9%-7.0%-9.4%5.3%4.4%
3Y Rtn-61.0%122.8%10.6%18.1%3.9%18.1%
1M Excs Rtn-2.5%7.3%-2.1%6.1%4.5%4.5%
3M Excs Rtn--4.4%9.2%-9.8%-3.3%1.4%-3.3%
6M Excs Rtn--7.5%-2.7%-14.9%-6.4%0.0%-6.4%
12M Excs Rtn--15.8%0.2%-23.2%-24.5%-10.2%-15.8%
3Y Excs Rtn--8.7%58.3%-60.5%-52.3%-65.0%-52.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance64182  
Insurance Distribution523126  
Corporate & Other945  
Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance 451250  
Financial Guarantee   156496
Total125504283156496


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Insurance Distribution65   
Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance0-6   
Corporate & Other-31-13   
Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance 537   
Total-25523   


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Discontinued operations7,516    
Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance523316156  
Corporate & Other234226182  
Insurance Distribution15513893  
Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance 7,29211,871  
Total8,4287,97212,302  


SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251110202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024306202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021