Analogy 1: Think of them as a specialized 'insurance company for financial markets,' offering financial guarantees for complex transactions, similar to how a rating agency like S&P Global assesses risk, but OSG actually *insures* against it.

Analogy 2: They also operate as a specialty insurer, offering niche property & casualty programs and underwriting services, akin to a focused division of a large commercial insurer like Chubb.

• Financial Guarantee Insurance Policies: These policies protect against financial losses by guaranteeing debt obligations.
• Specialty Property & Casualty Program Insurance: This insurance covers specific or niche property and casualty risks, often delivered through specialized programs.
• Credit Derivative Contracts: These are financial contracts whose value is linked to the credit risk of an underlying asset or entity.
• Interest Rate Derivative Transactions: These are financial transactions whose value is derived from changes in interest rates.
• Managing General Agency (MGA) / Underwriting Services: The company provides services for managing general agencies and underwriting insurance policies on behalf of insurers.

• AXA S.A. (EPA: CS)
• Everest Group, Ltd. (NYSE: EG)
• Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A, BRK.B)

Claude LeBlanc, President and Chief Executive Officer

Mr. LeBlanc has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Ambac (now Octave Specialty Group) since joining the company in January 2017. He led Ambac through a comprehensive transformation, which included winding down its legacy financial guarantee business and restructuring it into a specialty property and casualty insurance platform. Before joining Ambac, Mr. LeBlanc was the Chief Financial Officer and Chief Restructuring Officer of Syncora Holdings Ltd. from 2010 through 2016, and he previously held the position of Executive Vice President from 2006 to 2009, during which time he led a successful global restructuring.

David Trick, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Mr. Trick serves as Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer of Octave Specialty Group. He was appointed Executive Vice President of Ambac in November 2016. Mr. Trick has held the position of Chief Financial Officer of Ambac since January 2010, and prior to that, he served as a Senior Managing Director from January 2010 until his Executive Vice President appointment. He also served as interim President and Chief Executive Officer of Ambac Assurance Corporation (AAC) from January 2015 to March 2016.

R. Sharon Smith, Executive Vice President and Group Chief Operating Officer

Ms. Smith is the Executive Vice President and Group Chief Operating Officer. She was promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer in February 2023, having joined Ambac in 2017 as Chief of Staff and Senior Managing Director. Ms. Smith is responsible for Ambac's Corporate Services Group, overseeing functions such as Strategy, Corporate Communications, Model Governance, and Analytics, as well as Internal Audit. Before her tenure at Ambac, she worked at Syncora Guarantee Inc., where she held roles including Associate General Counsel and Head of Investor Relations.

Lawrence Metz, Senior Managing Director and General Counsel

Mr. Metz is the Senior Managing Director and General Counsel. He assumed these duties in August 2025.

Cristina Ahn, Chief Accounting Officer

Ms. Ahn was appointed as the Chief Accounting Officer of Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (now Octave Specialty Group) effective September 29, 2025.

Key Risks to Octave Specialty (OSG)

1. Underwriting Losses and Reserve Adequacy in Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance: As a specialty property & casualty (P&C) insurer, Octave Specialty Group faces the inherent risk of greater than anticipated underwriting losses. These losses could lead to inadequate loss and loss expense reserves, causing significant volatility in earnings and financial results. This risk is particularly pronounced in specialty lines of business which often involve unique or less common risks that can be more challenging to accurately rate and price.
2. Dependence on Third Parties and Managing General Agent (MGA)-Related Risks: Octave Specialty's business model relies heavily on its insurance distribution platform, which includes managing general agents (MGAs) and other third-party relationships for the production of business. This dependence introduces several risks, including the potential for misalignment of interests between the MGA and the underwriting carrier (where MGA commissions may incentivize higher premiums over underwriting profitability). Furthermore, Octave Specialty faces the risk of capacity scarcity from carriers, where a tightening underwriting appetite could reduce the capacity available to its MGAs, potentially leading to a significant decline in business. Issues with lack of transparency or poor data quality from MGAs can also hinder accurate actuarial analysis and reserving.
3. Regulatory and Legal Risks: As a financial services holding company operating in the insurance sector, Octave Specialty Group is exposed to regulatory and legal challenges. These include potential disagreements with insurance regulators, changes in laws or regulations, and the company's ability to adapt and comply with such changes. Additionally, litigation and regulatory inquiries or investigations, particularly those that could result in adverse outcomes, pose a material adverse risk to the company's business, operations, financial position, and profitability.

Emergence of Advanced Insurtech/Fintech Platforms: New entrants in the financial guarantee and specialty insurance sectors are increasingly leveraging artificial intelligence, machine learning, and advanced data analytics. These technologies enable more precise risk assessment, faster underwriting, and lower operational costs, potentially allowing these platforms to offer more competitive pricing and streamlined services compared to traditional providers like Ambac Financial Group, Inc. This innovation could erode market share for financial guarantee insurance policies and specialty property & casualty program insurance by providing a more efficient alternative for clients.

Growth of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Alternatives: The development of decentralized finance protocols, particularly those offering peer-to-peer or protocol-based solutions for credit derivatives and various forms of financial guarantees, presents an emerging long-term threat. While still in early stages for large-scale institutional use, these blockchain-based platforms aim to disintermediate traditional financial intermediaries, potentially reducing the need for conventional credit derivative contracts and financial guarantees by offering transparent, automated, and potentially lower-cost risk transfer mechanisms.

For Octave Specialty (symbol: OSG), formerly Ambac Financial Group, Inc., the addressable markets for its main products and services are as follows:

• Financial Guarantee Insurance Policies: The global financial guarantee market was valued at approximately $50.7 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $86.44 billion by 2030, with North America being the largest region in 2025. Another estimate values the global market at approximately $57.88 billion in 2026, projected to reach over $160 billion by 2035.
• Specialty Property & Casualty Program Insurance: The global specialty insurance market was estimated at $139.74 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately $362.14 billion by 2035. Europe contributed over 39% of the revenue share in 2025 for this market. Another report indicates a global market size of approximately $130.81 billion in 2025, projected to reach $312.53 billion by 2035.
• Credit Derivative Contracts: The global credit derivative market size is estimated at $6.96 billion (USD 6964.32 Million) in 2026 and is projected to expand to $11.45 billion (USD 11447.47 Million) by 2035. For context, the combined European and US traded notional for Credit Default Swaps (CDS) reached $7.9 trillion in the second quarter of 2025.
• Interest Rate Derivative Transactions: The notional outstanding value for over-the-counter (OTC) interest rate derivatives (IRD) globally reached $665.8 trillion at mid-year 2025. The gross market value of IRD globally rose to $15.0 trillion at mid-year 2025. Global turnover in IR derivatives, including both OTC and exchange-traded, surged to $25 trillion per day between April 2022 and April 2025.
• Managing General Agency (MGA) / Underwriting Services: The global Managing General Agent (MGA) market was valued at $63.4 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $128.7 billion by 2034. North America dominated this market with a 38.6% revenue share in 2025. The U.S. MGA market alone wrote $114.1 billion in direct premiums in 2024. Globally, MGAs now write over $200 billion in annual premiums.

Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Octave Specialty (OSG)

Octave Specialty Group (OSG), formerly Ambac Financial Group, Inc., is focusing its strategy on specialty property and casualty (P&C) insurance and managing general agency (MGA) businesses, following its rebranding in November 2025. Over the next 2-3 years, the company's revenue growth is expected to be driven by several key factors:

• Strategic Expansion of Specialty P&C and MGA Businesses: Octave Specialty Group is actively building, buying, and scaling niche MGA/MGU (managing general underwriters) businesses. This strategic pivot to a pure-play specialty P&C platform, coupled with its focus on insurance distribution, is expected to be a primary driver of revenue growth.
• Acquisition Strategy: The company has a stated strategy of acquiring high-performing MGA businesses across the U.S., U.K., and Bermuda. Recent acquisitions, such as ArmadaCare in 2025, demonstrate this focus and are anticipated to contribute significantly to increased revenue.
• Organic Growth within the Insurance Distribution Segment: Octave's Insurance Distribution segment has shown strong organic revenue growth in recent quarters, including 44.1% in Q2 2026 and 42% in Q1 2026, indicating sustained momentum in this area.
• Launch and Growth of New MGA Programs: The company's efforts in incubating and launching new MGA programs, such as 1889 Specialty Insurance Services through Beat Capital Partners (now Octave Ventures), are expected to broaden its offerings and capture new market share, thereby fueling revenue expansion.
• Geographic Market Expansion: Octave's focused expansion of its MGA businesses across the U.S., U.K., and Bermuda positions the company to tap into diverse and growing specialty insurance markets in these regions.