Vermilion Energy (VET)
Market Price (6/27/2026): $9.295 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Vermilion Energy (VET)
Market Price (6/27/2026): $9.295Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.9%, FCF Yield is 35% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Security. Themes include Oil & Gas Production, Natural Gas Supply, and Crude Oil Supply. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 91% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -15% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -59% Key risksVET key risks include [1] geopolitical tensions and [2] adverse regulatory and tax policy changes, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.9%, FCF Yield is 35% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Security. Themes include Oil & Gas Production, Natural Gas Supply, and Crude Oil Supply. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 91% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -15% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -59% |
| Key risksVET key risks include [1] geopolitical tensions and [2] adverse regulatory and tax policy changes, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Vermilion Energy (VET) stock has lost about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Net Loss in Fiscal Q1 2026 Driven by Unrealized Hedging Losses.
Vermilion Energy reported a net loss of CAD $146 million (CAD $0.95 per basic share) for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), significantly missing the consensus earnings per share estimate of $0.22 by $0.89. This net loss was primarily due to a CAD $286 million unrealized loss on derivative instruments. These losses stemmed from significant increases in spot and forward oil and European natural gas prices during Q1 2026, which meant the company's hedges limited its ability to fully benefit from the higher market prices.
2. Negative Market and Analyst Reaction to Q1 Results and Lack of Forward Revenue Guidance.
Following the announcement of Q1 2026 results on May 6, 2026, the market reacted negatively, leading to above-average selling pressure on Vermilion's stock. Analysts quickly updated their models, citing the larger-than-expected net loss and the absence of specific revenue guidance as key concerns. The company's consensus analyst rating stands at "Hold," with its rating score of 2.00 being lower than the average for the energy sector (2.40).
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Vermilion Energy (VET) stock has lost about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Net Loss in Fiscal Q1 2026 Driven by Unrealized Hedging Losses.
Vermilion Energy reported a net loss of CAD $146 million (CAD $0.95 per basic share) for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), significantly missing the consensus earnings per share estimate of $0.22 by $0.89. This net loss was primarily due to a CAD $286 million unrealized loss on derivative instruments. These losses stemmed from significant increases in spot and forward oil and European natural gas prices during Q1 2026, which meant the company's hedges limited its ability to fully benefit from the higher market prices.
2. Negative Market and Analyst Reaction to Q1 Results and Lack of Forward Revenue Guidance.
Following the announcement of Q1 2026 results on May 6, 2026, the market reacted negatively, leading to above-average selling pressure on Vermilion's stock. Analysts quickly updated their models, citing the larger-than-expected net loss and the absence of specific revenue guidance as key concerns. The company's consensus analyst rating stands at "Hold," with its rating score of 2.00 being lower than the average for the energy sector (2.40).
3. Weakening Global Crude Oil Prices in Q2 2026.
A macroeconomic headwind impacting energy companies like Vermilion has been the recent decline in global crude oil prices. Brent crude oil prices experienced a sharp drop, falling from $97.81 on June 3, 2026, to $73.41 by June 24, 2026. This significant decrease in commodity prices during Q2 2026, after the Q1 earnings report, likely added further pressure to Vermilion's stock, given its exposure to international oil and gas markets.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.2% change in VET stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/26/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.59 | 9.30 | -12.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,843 | 1,918 | 4.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.9 | 0.7 | -16.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 154 | 153 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VET | -12.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.6% | -27.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | -3.1% | 75.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.2% change in VET stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.01 | 9.30 | 3.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,843 | 1,918 | 4.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 0.7 | -1.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 154 | 153 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.2% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VET | 3.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.3% | -15.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 20.8% | 73.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 50.5% change in VET stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 31.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.18 | 9.30 | 50.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,690 | 1,918 | 13.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.6 | 0.7 | 31.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 154 | 153 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 50.5% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VET | 50.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 25.1% | -5.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 36.3% | 73.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.1% change in VET stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/26/2026 was primarily driven by a -44.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.70 | 9.30 | -4.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,465 | 1,918 | -44.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.7 | 62.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 163 | 153 | 6.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.1% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VET | -4.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 32.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 55.0% | 76.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VET Return | 183% | 42% | -30% | -19% | -7% | 15% | 141% |
| Peers Return | 129% | 55% | -4% | -13% | 11% | 28% | 320% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VET Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 33% | 33% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 60% | 43% | 37% | 62% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VET Max Drawdown | -38% | -42% | -38% | -31% | -47% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -37% | -28% | -35% | -31% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CNQ, CVE, OVV, DVN, MUR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/26/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VET | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 217 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -14.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -19.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 826 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -87.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 725.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1339 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Vermilion Energy's stock fell -39.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 66.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | VET | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 217 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -87.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 725.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1339 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -33.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 379 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Vermilion Energy's stock fell -39.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 66.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Vermilion Energy (VET)
Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) is an international upstream oil and natural gas company primarily focused on the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of hydrocarbon resources. The company's core activities involve locating, extracting, and producing crude oil and natural gas from various geological formations, serving as a fundamental supplier of primary energy commodities to global markets.
The company's main products are light and medium crude oil and conventional natural gas. Vermilion boasts a geographically diversified portfolio, with significant operational assets and acreage across three continents. Its primary markets and areas of operation include North America (specifically Canada and the United States), Europe (with holdings in countries such as France, the Netherlands, Germany, Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia, and a stake in Ireland's offshore Corrib natural gas field), and Australia (featuring the Wandoo offshore oil field). This extensive international footprint allows Vermilion to supply crude oil and natural gas to a wide array of regional energy consumers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Vermilion Energy (VET) is like:
- A global oil and gas explorer and producer, similar to a smaller BP or Chevron.
- An ExxonMobil or Shell that specializes purely in finding and extracting oil and gas, with operations spanning North America, Europe, and Australia.
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- Crude Oil: Production and sale of light and medium crude oil extracted from various onshore and offshore fields.
- Natural Gas: Production and sale of conventional natural gas from its wells and fields across different regions.
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Major Customers of Vermilion Energy (VET)
Vermilion Energy Inc. is an upstream oil and natural gas exploration and production company. As such, it produces crude oil and natural gas, which are raw commodities.
Vermilion Energy's major customers are typically other companies within the energy sector, rather than individual consumers. These customers generally include:
- Midstream companies: Companies that process, store, and transport crude oil and natural gas via pipelines, rail, or tankers.
- Refineries: Facilities that purchase crude oil to process it into refined products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks.
- Utility companies and large industrial consumers: Companies that purchase natural gas for power generation or industrial processes.
- Energy trading houses: Firms that buy and sell crude oil and natural gas commodities on behalf of other companies or for speculative purposes.
Specific names of major customer companies are generally not publicly disclosed by Vermilion Energy in standard company descriptions, as these are typically large, industrial-scale transactions rather than direct sales to retail entities.
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Dion Hatcher President & Chief Executive Officer
Dion Hatcher has over 25 years of industry experience, focusing on production and operations engineering, asset management, and business development across Europe and Canada. He joined Vermilion in 2006 as an exploitation engineer for the France team. Mr. Hatcher progressed through various leadership roles within the company, including France Exploitation Manager, Director Alberta Foothills, Vice President Canada Business Unit, and Vice President North America, before being promoted to President and Chief Executive Officer in March 2023. Prior to joining Vermilion, he held engineering, operations, exploitation, and project management positions with Chevron Canada Resources.
Lars Glemser Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Lars Glemser brings over 20 years of experience, primarily in the financial area of oil and gas operations. He joined Vermilion in 2015 as Operations Controller. Mr. Glemser subsequently held roles in Investor Relations and as Director of Finance before his appointment as Vice President & Chief Financial Officer in April 2018. Before his tenure at Vermilion, he held positions at Lightstream Resources Ltd, TriStar Oil & Gas, and Deloitte & Touche.
Darcy Kerwin Vice President, International & HSE
Darcy Kerwin has been with Vermilion Energy since 2005. His experience at the company spans various business units, including Canada, France, Australia, and Ireland. Before assuming his current role, he served as Vice President, Strategic Planning.
Randy McQuaig Vice President, North America
Randy McQuaig serves as the Vice President for North America. No further detailed background information is available in the provided sources.
Geoff MacDonald Vice President, Geosciences
Geoff MacDonald holds the position of Vice President, Geosciences. No further detailed background information is available in the provided sources.
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Commodity Price Volatility: Vermilion Energy's revenue and profitability are highly dependent on the global prices of crude oil and natural gas. Fluctuations in these commodity prices, driven by supply and demand imbalances, geopolitical events, global economic conditions, and decisions by major oil-producing nations, can significantly impact the company's financial performance, cash flow, and investment decisions.
2. Regulatory and Environmental Risks: Operating across North America, Europe, and Australia, Vermilion is exposed to a diverse and evolving landscape of environmental regulations, climate change policies, and carbon pricing mechanisms. Particularly in Europe, stringent regulations and increasing societal pressure for energy transition could lead to higher operating costs, delays in project approvals, limitations on exploration and development activities, and potential asset impairments.
3. Geopolitical and Operational Risks Associated with International Operations: Vermilion's extensive international footprint, including operations in various European countries (France, Netherlands, Germany, Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia, Ireland), North America, and Australia, exposes it to a range of geopolitical and operational risks. These include political instability, changes in government policy, regulatory and fiscal regime alterations, expropriation risks, currency fluctuations, and challenges in securing social license to operate in diverse communities.
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The rapid acceleration of the global energy transition, driven by significant advancements and widespread adoption of renewable energy technologies (such as solar and wind power, coupled with increasingly efficient and affordable battery storage solutions) and electric vehicles, poses an emerging threat. This could lead to a precipitous decline in demand for crude oil and natural gas, potentially rendering Vermilion Energy's fossil fuel assets economically unviable or significantly devalued much sooner than currently projected.
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Vermilion Energy Inc. primarily operates in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of petroleum (crude oil) and natural gas. The addressable markets for these main products are substantial across the regions where the company has a presence.
Crude Oil Market
- Global: The global crude oil market was valued at approximately USD 763.75 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 867.16 billion by 2033, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6% from 2026 to 2033. Global oil demand is estimated at 103.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and is forecast to increase to 104.5 mb/d in 2026. The world produced roughly 106 million barrels of oil per day in 2025.
- North America: North America stands as the world's largest oil-producing region, accounting for 29.9% of global output in 2025, with an average production of 31.8 million barrels per day. The North America Oil Exploration and Production market size was USD 936.21 million in 2024 and is forecasted to reach USD 1,256.85 million by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 4.30% from 2024 to 2031. U.S. crude oil production is projected to be around 13.5 million metric tons per day in 2025.
- Europe: Europe (excluding Russia) accounted for less than 4% of total global oil production in 2025, representing the smallest regional share.
- Australia: The Australia oil and gas market (combined) reached USD 432.1 million in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 736.8 million by 2034, with a CAGR of 5.93% during 2026–2034. More specifically for crude oil, the Australia Crude Oil Market size is anticipated to expand at a CAGR of 3.31% during 2025-2031. The market volume for Australia's oil and gas reached 159.66 thousand barrels in 2025.
Natural Gas Market
- Global: The global natural gas market was valued at USD 1.30 trillion in 2025 and is poised to grow to USD 2.30 trillion by 2033, at a CAGR of 7.4% during the forecast period (2026–2033). Another estimate indicates the global natural gas market size grew from USD 1,478.66 billion in 2025 to USD 1,591.93 billion in 2026, at a CAGR of 7.7%. Global natural gas production reached 3,506 billion cubic meters for the first ten months of 2025.
- North America: The North America natural gas market generated a revenue of USD 505.7 million in 2025 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.4% from 2026 to 2033, reaching USD 710.3 million by 2033. The U.S. Natural Gas Market is projected to grow from an estimated USD 473.4 billion in 2025 with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.5% until 2032. The U.S. consumed 91.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas in 2025.
- Europe: The Europe natural gas market was valued at USD 104.83 billion in 2025, is estimated to reach USD 108.16 billion in 2026, and is projected to reach USD 138.85 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 3.17% during the forecast period. European gas requirements were forecast to be just under 449 Bcm in 2025. EU gas use reached approximately 335 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2025, with a projected stabilization in 2026 to 337–340 bcm.
- Australia: The Australia natural gas market size reached USD 34.46 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 73.82 billion by 2034, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 8.83% from 2026 to 2034.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Vermilion Energy (VET) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies and market advantages:
- Increased Production Volumes from Strategic Assets: Vermilion Energy anticipates higher production volumes, particularly from its North American and European assets. The company projects Q1 2026 production to average between 122,000 and 124,000 boe/d, with full-year 2026 production guidance set at 118,000 to 122,000 boe/d, with approximately 70% natural gas. This growth is partly fueled by a significant drilling program in the Deep Basin, targeting liquids-rich gas wells, and the ramp-up of Montney production in Canada. Investments in German deep gas projects and infrastructure in the Montney and Deep Basin are key capital allocation areas for 2026.
- Favorable European Natural Gas Prices and Hedging Strategy: The company benefits from strong realized European natural gas prices, supported by its exposure to the European market and a sophisticated hedging program. For instance, in Q4 2025, Vermilion realized an average natural gas price of Cdn$5.50 per mcf after hedging, which was more than double the AECO benchmark. This diversified asset mix and focus on natural gas allows for attractive European gas hedging, mitigating geopolitical and price volatility.
- Impact of Strategic Acquisitions: The acquisition of Westbrick Energy in early 2025 significantly bolstered Vermilion's production capabilities, adding approximately 50,000 boe/d of liquids-rich gas and establishing a dominant position in the Deep Basin of Alberta. The successful integration and development of such acquisitions are expected to continue to enhance production and improve overall cash flow and cost structures.
- Enhanced Operational Efficiencies and Cost Management: Vermilion Energy has demonstrated a commitment to improving its operational efficiencies, resulting in some of the lowest unit operating costs in over a decade. The 2026 budget includes a targeted 30% improvement in capital and operating efficiencies, reflecting the benefits of its repositioned global gas portfolio. These improvements are crucial for boosting profitability and allowing for more capital to be reinvested in growth initiatives.
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Share Repurchases
- Vermilion Energy received approval for a Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) to repurchase up to 15,259,187 common shares, approximately 10% of its public float, from July 12, 2025, to July 11, 2026.
- In 2025, the company returned $116 million to shareholders, which included the repurchase and cancellation of 3.1 million shares under its NCIB.
- During 2024, Vermilion repurchased and retired 9.1 million shares, reducing the share count by 4.8% to 154.5 million as of year-to-date.
- In 2023, Vermilion returned $160 million to shareholders, with $95 million allocated to share buybacks.
Share Issuance
- Information regarding significant share issuances (dollar amount) was not explicitly detailed within the provided search results for the specified timeframe.
Outbound Investments
- In December 2024, Vermilion announced the acquisition of Westbrick Energy Ltd., a privately held oil and gas company, for $1.075 billion, which closed in Q1 2025. This acquisition added approximately 50,000 boe/d of production and 1.1 million acres of land.
- In Q3 2025, Vermilion announced the sale of its United States oil and gas assets for $120 million in cash, as part of a strategy to focus on core operations in Canada and Europe.
- In 2022, Vermilion funded over $500 million in strategic acquisitions, including the acquisition of Leucrotta Energy for $382 million in March 2022.
Capital Expenditures
- For 2026, capital expenditures are projected to be approximately C$615 million to $630 million, with a primary focus on global gas assets (around 85%) and factoring in planned maintenance in Europe.
- In 2025, Vermilion fully funded $635 million in exploration and development (E&D) capital expenditures. The initial budget was $600 million to $625 million, allocated across major business units, including drilling and infrastructure in BC Montney and European gas exploration.
- The 2024 capital expenditure budget was between $600 million and $625 million, with increased investment in the BC Montney asset and key growth projects in Germany and Croatia.
- In 2023, E&D capital expenditures totaled $590 million, with a focus on consistent investment in North America and increased allocation to continental European gas drilling.
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 37.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 20.1 |
| Rev LTM | 12,803 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,640 |
| FCF LTM | 2,062 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,476 |
| CFO LTM | 5,130 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,227 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -9.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -21.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -23.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 40.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 40.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 1,765 | 1,546 | 2,008 | ||
| Crude oil and condensate sales | 1,692 | 1,163 | |||
| Natural gas liquids (NGL) sales | 134 | 105 | |||
| Natural gas sales | 1,651 | 812 | |||
| Royalties | -306 | -186 | |||
| Sales of purchased commodities | 245 | 147 | |||
| Total | 1,765 | 1,546 | 2,008 | 3,415 | 2,041 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 1,609 | 1,866 | 1,212 |
| Ireland | 908 | 823 | 748 |
| France | 863 | 874 | 902 |
| Australia | 235 | 241 | 323 |
| Netherlands | 213 | 220 | 229 |
| Corporate | 170 | 178 | 296 |
| Germany | 168 | 170 | |
| United States | 43 | 15 | |
| Total | 4,209 | 4,386 | 3,709 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $9.30 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/10/2010 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -34.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $11.69 | $9.89 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -20.4% | -6.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 52.9% | 47.2% |
| Downside Capture | 0.56 | -41.43 |
| Upside Capture | -136.72 | 0.02 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -32.0% | -3.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -3.42 | -3.21 | -1.60 | -0.81 | -0.29 | 1.02 |
| Up Beta | -7.32 | -4.45 | -2.64 | -1.62 | -1.17 | 1.19 |
| Down Beta | -2.35 | -2.03 | 0.24 | 0.43 | 0.84 | 1.87 |
| Up Capture | -256% | -146% | -91% | -39% | 5% | 15% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 23 | 38 | 73 | 131 | 383 |
| Down Capture | -171% | -414% | -291% | -201% | -156% | 73% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 17 | 24 | 48 | 111 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VET | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VET | 33.8% | 47.2% | 0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 30.5% | 20.8% | 1.18 | 73.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.4% | 1.26 | -3.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.8% | 27.7% | 0.70 | 5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.8% | 18.6% | 0.92 | 60.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 16.1% | 13.6% | 0.85 | -0.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.7% | 42.5% | -1.27 | 14.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VET | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VET | 4.7% | 52.7% | 0.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 19.9% | 26.0% | 0.69 | 78.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 33.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 14.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 19.5% | 0.28 | 64.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.9% | 0.08 | 24.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.7% | 54.0% | 0.39 | 16.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VET | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VET | -7.6% | 57.0% | 0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 9.3% | 29.6% | 0.35 | 81.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 43.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.1% | 0.60 | 8.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 61.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 36.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 54.6% | 66.4% | 0.95 | 12.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/04/2026 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/05/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/06/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 6-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/04/2026 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/05/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/06/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/07/2022 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/12/2021 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/16/2021 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/28/2021 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/08/2021 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/09/2020 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/27/2020 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/28/2020 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/06/2020 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/31/2019 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/29/2019 | 6-K |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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