Nexa Resources (NEXA)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $6.0 | Market Cap: $794.6 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Nexa Resources (NEXA)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $6.0Market Cap: $794.6 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 188% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.2% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.9% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.0% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Sustainable Resource Management, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Sustainable Resource Management, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 188% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.9% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.0% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
NEXA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for Nexa Resources' stock movement of 23.3% from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results. Nexa Resources reported robust financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, significantly surpassing revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. The company's net revenues reached $764 million, exceeding analyst estimates, and it posted an EPS of $0.52, a substantial beat over forecasts. This strong earnings report contributed to a positive stock reaction.
2. Increased Production and Operational Efficiency. The company demonstrated strong operational growth in Q3 2025, with net revenues increasing by 8% both sequentially and year-over-year. Zinc production notably rose by 14% quarter-over-quarter, reaching 84,000 tons, driven by higher mining output and record output at the Cajamarquilla smelter.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NEXA Return | 29% | -16% | -20% | 22% | 23% | -32% | -12% |
| Peers Return | 34% | 3% | 14% | -7% | -11% | 33% | 74% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NEXA Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 27% | 32% | 32% | 28% | 76% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NEXA Max Drawdown | -64% | -29% | -41% | -27% | -18% | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -10% | -9% | -15% | -17% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VALE, WRN, XPL, ALM, CRML.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NEXA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -65.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 189.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -70.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 239.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 283 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -66.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 193.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to VALE, WRN, XPL, ALM, CRML
In The Past
Nexa Resources's stock fell -65.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/18/2021. A -65.4% loss requires a 189.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NEXA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -2.5% |
| 10312025 | SLGN | Silgan | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.6% |
| 10242025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.2% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.3% | 5.3% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.8% | 1.8% | -7.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -2.5% |
| 10312025 | SLGN | Silgan | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.6% |
| 10242025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.2% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.3% | 5.3% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.8% | 1.8% | -7.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Nexa Resources
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 6.23 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| Rev LTM | 30 |
| Op Inc LTM | -5 |
| FCF LTM | -5 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -22 |
| CFO LTM | -3 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -4 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | -9.8 |
| P/E | -21.5 |
| P/CFO | -11.1 |
| Total Yield | -0.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -6.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 29.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 34.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 12.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 31.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 16.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 20.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -48.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3272025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3272024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10302023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3202023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3172022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |