Nebius (NBIS)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $84.03 | Market Cap: $20.1 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Nebius (NBIS)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $84.03Market Cap: $20.1 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 543% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -477 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -197% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 85x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 144x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 84x | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 129%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 389% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 115% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 543% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -477 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -197% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 85x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 144x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 84x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 129%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 389% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 115% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
NBIS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Nebius (NBIS) experienced a 58% increase for the approximate period from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025, driven by several key developments:
1. Landmark AI Infrastructure Contracts: Nebius secured significant multi-year agreements, including a partnership with Microsoft valued at up to $19.4 billion for dedicated GPU capacity in September 2025, and a new agreement with Meta Platforms for approximately $3 billion over five years to deliver AI infrastructure, announced in November 2025. These major deals underscored strong demand for Nebius's AI infrastructure and validated its technological capabilities.
2. Exceptional Third Quarter 2025 Revenue Growth: The company's unaudited financial results for the third quarter, released on November 11, 2025, revealed a substantial 355% year-over-year surge in total revenue to $146.1 million. Its core AI infrastructure business demonstrated even stronger performance, growing 400% year-over-year and accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NBIS Return | 60% | -13% | -69% | 0% | 46% | 210% | 98% |
| Peers Return | 37% | -10% | -10% | 16% | 6% | -16% | 13% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NBIS Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 25% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 15% | 10% | 8% | 12% | 10% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NBIS Max Drawdown | -34% | -14% | -69% | 0% | -9% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -9% | -12% | -12% | 0% | -6% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: Z, TTGT, GIBO, NXDR, STUB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NBIS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -78.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 356.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1292 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 97 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 429 days | 120 days |
Compare to Z, TTGT, GIBO, NXDR, STUB
In The Past
Nebius's stock fell -78.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2021. A -78.1% loss requires a 356.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Would You Still Hold Nebius Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return | ||
| NBIS Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Nebius (NBIS) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nebius (NBIS) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nebius (NBIS) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nebius (NBIS) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| How Nebius Stock Hits $100 Billion | September 12th, 2025 | ||
| What’s Happening With Nebius Group Stock? | September 10th, 2025 | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: VBTX, NBIS, EOSE | Losers: WAT, UP, SNDK | July 15th, 2025 | ||
| Up 70% This Year, Is Nebius Stock The Best Cloud Play For AI Age? | July 8th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NBIS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -18.7% | -18.7% | -18.7% |
| 10032025 | CABO | Cable One | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -39.6% | -39.6% | -39.6% |
| 09122025 | DV | DoubleVerify | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.0% | -20.0% | -27.9% |
| 07312025 | CMCSA | Comcast | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -16.3% | -16.3% | -17.9% |
| 05312025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -14.4% | -14.4% | -17.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -18.7% | -18.7% | -18.7% |
| 10032025 | CABO | Cable One | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -39.6% | -39.6% | -39.6% |
| 09122025 | DV | DoubleVerify | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.0% | -20.0% | -27.9% |
| 07312025 | CMCSA | Comcast | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -16.3% | -16.3% | -17.9% |
| 05312025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -14.4% | -14.4% | -17.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Nebius
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.6 |
| Rev LTM | 299 |
| Op Inc LTM | -86 |
| FCF LTM | 8 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 76 |
| CFO LTM | 9 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 177 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 56.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 12.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -24.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -32.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -3.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.6 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| P/EBIT | -4.1 |
| P/E | -5.3 |
| P/CFO | 39.7 |
| Total Yield | -5.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -20.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -18.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -18.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 191.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 224.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -20.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -21.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -30.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 165.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 153.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toloka | 11 | 10 | |||
| Nebius | 10 | 0 | |||
| TripleTen | 8 | 2 | |||
| Avride | 0 | 0 | |||
| Eliminations | -8 | 0 | -364 | -184 | -143 |
| Classifieds | 124 | 85 | 87 | ||
| E-commerce, Mobility and Delivery | 2,236 | 1,113 | |||
| Other Business Units and Initiatives | 360 | 151 | |||
| Plus and Entertainment | 247 | 105 | 62 | ||
| Search and Portal | 2,175 | 1,664 | 1,961 | ||
| Other Bets and Experiments | 127 | ||||
| Taxi | 735 | ||||
| Total | 21 | 14 | 4,776 | 2,935 | 2,829 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| One-off restructuring and other expenses | -2 | 0 | -14 | ||
| Certain SBC expense | -13 | -6 | |||
| Depreciation and amortization | -29 | -28 | |||
| TripleTen | -37 | -36 | |||
| Toloka | -42 | -22 | |||
| Avride | -70 | -23 | |||
| Nebius | -134 | -44 | |||
| Amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets | -19 | ||||
| Classifieds | 5 | ||||
| Compensation expense related to contingent consideration | -1 | ||||
| Goodwill impairment | -12 | ||||
| Other Bets and Experiments | -96 | ||||
| Plus and Entertainment | -36 | ||||
| Search and Portal | 740 | ||||
| Share-based compensation expense | -159 | ||||
| Taxi | -9 | ||||
| Total | -328 | -158 | 398 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5202025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4302025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4262024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11172023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8172023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5232023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4202023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11232022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8242022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5262022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4202022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11232021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
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| FinViz |