Nextdoor (NXDR)
Market Price (9/16/2026): $2.43 | Market Cap: $926.0 MilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Nextdoor (NXDR)
Market Price (9/16/2026): $2.43Market Cap: $926.0 MilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -37% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hyperlocal Social & Economic Networks. Themes include Neighborhood Social Networking, Local Online Marketplaces, and Local Business Engagement. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -46 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -17% Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 73x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 67% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.4% Key risksNXDR key risks include [1] persistent unprofitability and challenges monetizing its hyperlocal ad model, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hyperlocal Social & Economic Networks. Themes include Neighborhood Social Networking, Local Online Marketplaces, and Local Business Engagement. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -46 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -17% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 73x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 67% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.4% |
| Key risksNXDR key risks include [1] persistent unprofitability and challenges monetizing its hyperlocal ad model, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Nextdoor (NXDR) stock has gained about 15% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Nextdoor reported stronger-than-expected financial results for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026, exceeding both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates.
The company announced revenue of $75 million, a 15% increase year-over-year, surpassing its own guidance range of $71 million to $73 million and analyst expectations of $72.10 million. Additionally, Nextdoor reported an EPS of -$0.01, which beat the consensus estimate of -$0.02 by $0.01.
2. The company demonstrated significant improvement in profitability, highlighted by a positive Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal Q2 2026.
Nextdoor achieved an Adjusted EBITDA of $10 million, reflecting a substantial improvement from a $2 million loss in the year-ago period and exceeding its guidance range of $4 million to $6 million. The net loss also narrowed considerably to $2 million, compared to a net loss of $15 million in the same period last year.
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Nextdoor (NXDR) stock has gained about 15% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Nextdoor reported stronger-than-expected financial results for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026, exceeding both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates.
The company announced revenue of $75 million, a 15% increase year-over-year, surpassing its own guidance range of $71 million to $73 million and analyst expectations of $72.10 million. Additionally, Nextdoor reported an EPS of -$0.01, which beat the consensus estimate of -$0.02 by $0.01.
2. The company demonstrated significant improvement in profitability, highlighted by a positive Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal Q2 2026.
Nextdoor achieved an Adjusted EBITDA of $10 million, reflecting a substantial improvement from a $2 million loss in the year-ago period and exceeding its guidance range of $4 million to $6 million. The net loss also narrowed considerably to $2 million, compared to a net loss of $15 million in the same period last year.
3. Nextdoor reported record user engagement and raised its full-year guidance for 2026, indicating sustained growth and a positive outlook.
Platform Weekly Active Users (WAU) reached an all-time high of 22.9 million, growing 5% year-over-year and marking the second consecutive quarter of sequential growth. Following these strong results, the company raised its full-year 2026 outlook, projecting low-teens revenue growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 10%.
4. Several Wall Street analysts upgraded their ratings and increased price targets for Nextdoor, reflecting increased confidence in the company's future performance.
Following the Q2 2026 earnings report, B. Riley Securities upgraded Nextdoor's stock from "Neutral" to "Buy" and raised its price target from $2.00 to $3.30. Other analysts, including Goldman Sachs and Citi, also increased their price targets, with the average analyst price target reaching $3.13, representing a 31.10% upside potential from the stock's price of $2.39 at the time of some of these updates.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.6% change in NXDR stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.11 | 2.46 | 16.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 265 | 275 | 3.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.1 | 3.4 | 10.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 387 | 381 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXDR | 16.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.1% | 28.4% |
| Sector (XLC) | -1.4% | 51.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 40.6% change in NXDR stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.75 | 2.46 | 40.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 258 | 275 | 6.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.7 | 3.4 | 28.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 391 | 381 | 2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 40.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXDR | 40.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.7% | 28.9% |
| Sector (XLC) | -3.1% | 41.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.0% change in NXDR stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.05 | 2.46 | 20.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 250 | 275 | 9.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.1 | 3.4 | 8.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 383 | 381 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXDR | 20.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 18.4% | 29.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | 3.4% | 33.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXDR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 74.1% | 30.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | 73.7% | 30.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NXDR Return | - | - | - | - | 2% | 13% | 16% |
| Peers Return | 33% | -50% | 67% | -7% | -20% | -36% | -47% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NXDR Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 50% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 33% | 67% | 45% | 43% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NXDR Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -60% | -31% | -35% | -54% | -50% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: YELP, ANGI, META, THRY, PINS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
NXDR has limited trading history. Below is the Communication Services sector ETF (XLC) in its place.
| Event | XLC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 470 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -17.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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NXDR has limited trading history. Below is the Communication Services sector ETF (XLC) in its place.
| Event | XLC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 470 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -17.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Nextdoor (NXDR)
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR) operates as a digital neighborhood network, serving as a vital connection point for residents, local businesses, and public services. Its core offering is a platform designed to facilitate information exchange, enable neighbors to give and receive help, and foster stronger community connections within specific geographic neighborhoods.
The company primarily serves a diverse set of customers including individual neighbors, small and mid-sized businesses, large corporate brands, public agencies, and non-profit organizations. Through its platform, these entities can interact locally, share resources, and build relationships, with Nextdoor extending its reach across the United States and internationally to connect millions within their respective communities.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Nextdoor:
- Facebook for neighborhoods
- Reddit for local communities
- Craigslist for verified neighborhood interactions
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- Nextdoor Neighborhood Network: A digital platform connecting neighbors for local interactions, information exchange, and community building.
- Local Business Advertising: Services enabling small and mid-sized businesses, as well as large brands, to reach local customers and promote their offerings within specific neighborhoods.
- Public Agency & Non-profit Engagement: Tools and channels for public services, government agencies, and non-profits to communicate with residents and share important local information.
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Nextdoor (NXDR) primarily sells to other companies and organizations. Its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Small and Mid-Sized Businesses: These are local businesses that use the Nextdoor platform to connect with neighbors, promote their services, and advertise to local communities.
- Large Brands: Larger national and international brands that leverage Nextdoor's platform for targeted advertising campaigns to reach specific local demographics and build brand presence within neighborhoods.
- Public Agencies: Government entities, such as local police departments, fire departments, city councils, and other public services, that utilize Nextdoor to disseminate important information, alerts, and engage with residents.
- Nonprofits: Charitable organizations and community groups that use Nextdoor to raise awareness for their causes, recruit volunteers, and connect with local supporters.
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- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL, GOOG)
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Nirav Tolia, Chief Executive Officer, President, and Chairperson of the Board
Nirav Tolia is a co-founder of Nextdoor. He returned as CEO, President, and Chairperson of the Board in Q2 2024. Prior to co-founding Nextdoor in 2010, Tolia co-founded Epinions.com, an online consumer review platform that later became Shopping.com and went public before being acquired by eBay in a $634 million deal in 2005. He also served as COO of Shopping.com. Before that, he was an early employee at Yahoo! and an Entrepreneur-in-Residence at Benchmark Capital.
Indrajit Ponnambalam, Chief Financial Officer
Indrajit Ponnambalam was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Nextdoor, effective December 1, 2025. He oversees all aspects of Nextdoor's finance organization. Before joining Nextdoor, Ponnambalam served as Chief Financial Officer at Premion, an advertising platform. He also spent five years in senior finance leadership roles at Match Group, including Chief Administrative Officer and SVP of Finance, where he helped scale its global portfolio and supported the company's growth as a public company.
Sarah Leary, Co-Founder, Chief Marketing Officer, and Chief Global Business Operations Officer
Sarah Leary is a co-founder of Nextdoor. She began her career at Microsoft and held senior leadership roles at tech organizations including Epinions and eBay before co-founding Nextdoor in 2011. During her tenure at Nextdoor from 2010-2019, she served as Vice President of Product and Marketing, and later as Vice President of Marketing, International, and Operations. She is also a Venture Partner at Unusual Ventures and a board member at Spindrift Beverage Co., Inc.
Craig Lisowski, President of Products
Craig Lisowski is Nextdoor's President of Product, bringing over 20 years of experience in engineering, data analytics, business development, and IT. Before Nextdoor, he was Head of Business Platform Engineering at Block, Inc. (formerly Square), where he managed large-scale data systems and led multiple engineering functions. His previous roles include senior positions at Silicon Graphics, VeriSign, and Oracle.
Michael Kiernan, Chief Revenue Officer
Michael Kiernan serves as Nextdoor's Chief Revenue Officer, responsible for sales, client services, and operations. He has nearly 20 years of experience in achieving growth and transformations across leading technology organizations. Kiernan held various go-to-market leadership roles at companies such as X (formerly Twitter) and Yahoo!, and helped lead venture-backed startups like Turn and BrightRoll to successful exits.
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Key Risks to Nextdoor (NXDR)
- Intense Competition and Market Saturation: Nextdoor operates in a highly competitive social media landscape, contending with platforms such as Facebook Neighborhoods and various local community applications that vie for the same user base. This intense competition, coupled with potential market saturation, makes it challenging for Nextdoor to sustain user growth and maintain its appeal to a diverse audience.
- Challenges in User Engagement, Content Moderation, and Trust: The platform faces ongoing issues related to declining content quality, inconsistent moderation practices, and the spread of misinformation or toxic discourse. Nextdoor's reliance on volunteer "Leads" for content oversight can result in biased or uneven enforcement of community guidelines, leading to user dissatisfaction and churn. Additionally, concerns regarding user privacy, aggressive advertising, and the potential for the platform to skew perceptions of local crime can erode user trust. These factors threaten the core value proposition of a trusted neighborhood network.
- Profitability Struggles and Dependence on Advertising Revenue: Nextdoor has historically grappled with persistent losses despite efforts to grow revenue. A substantial portion of the company's revenue is derived from advertising, making it vulnerable to economic downturns and shifts in advertising budgets. Reports indicate that some advertisers have experienced poor returns on investment, and the company has observed revenue growth deceleration due to reduced spending by major advertisers and a transition to programmatic ad buying.
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Nextdoor (NXDR) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives focused on enhancing its advertising platform, improving user engagement, and leveraging artificial intelligence.
One significant driver is the **enhancement of its advertising platform, including a focus on self-serve advertisers and a strategic shift towards programmatic ad buying**. The company has seen consistent growth in advertising revenue, with self-serve revenue making up a substantial portion of total revenue and growing significantly year-over-year. This shift aims to capture a larger share of the local advertising market by offering greater advertiser value and simplifying the ad-buying process.
A second key driver is the **"NEXT" product transformation aimed at increasing user engagement and making Nextdoor a primary neighborhood application**. This comprehensive overhaul of the platform, expected to be fully delivered by mid-2025, focuses on improving the user experience, integrating more relevant local content, and fostering community-powered recommendations. Deeper user engagement is crucial for driving advertising revenue and overall platform monetization.
Thirdly, **AI-driven personalization and ad optimization** are expected to contribute to revenue growth. Nextdoor is investing in an AI-enabled ad stack to enhance personalized content, recommendations, and ad platform optimization. Features like click optimization have already demonstrated significant improvements in ad performance, such as reducing cost per click for advertisers.
Finally, **growth in Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)** is a direct indicator of successful monetization efforts. Nextdoor has shown positive momentum in ARPU, with increases attributed to better ad relevance, improved sales productivity, and enhanced platform performance without necessarily increasing ad load. This indicates the company's ability to effectively monetize its existing user base.
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Share Repurchases
- Nextdoor authorized a share repurchase program of up to $100 million of its Class A common stock on June 1, 2022, valid through June 30, 2024.
- Between October 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, the company repurchased 2,465,638 shares for $4.36 million.
- As of February 18, 2026, Nextdoor had completed the repurchase of 65,096,191 shares for $171.58 million under the June 1, 2022 buyback authorization.
Share Issuance
- Nextdoor's post-SPAC IPO in November 2021 included a private placement where investors subscribed for 27,000,000 shares of Class A common stock at $10.00 per share, totaling $270,000,000.
- The fully-diluted share count in 2024 was lower than in 2021 when the company went public, but the share count had also tripled to 385 million, contributing to a dilution of book value per share from $5.09 in 2021 to $1.18 in 2024.
- As of February 24, 2025, there were 235,586,510 shares of Class A common stock outstanding and 150,715,125 shares of Class B common stock outstanding.
Inbound Investments
- In November 2021, as part of its SPAC IPO, Nextdoor received $270,000,000 from a private placement where investors bought 27,000,000 shares of Class A common stock at $10.00 per share.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures remained consistently low, under $1 million annually between 2022 and 2024.
- Purchases of property, plant, and equipment in Q4 2025 amounted to -$78,000, reflecting a 12.4% year-over-year decrease.
- Capital allocation focuses on R&D investments.
Peer Outperformance in Interactive Media & Services
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless Telecommunication Services | 3 | -15.0% | 33.7% | 47.2% | ECHO 273% · TMUS 47% · SHEN -60% |
| Publishing | 5 | 22.5% | -4.1% | 17.3% | NYT 55% · NWSA 42% · SCHL 17% |
| Movies & Entertainment | 23 | -1.2% | 64.4% | -19.8% | IMAX 210% · MSGS 128% · BATRA 112% |
| Integrated Telecommunication Services | 21 | -11.8% | 8.7% | -23.2% | IQST 1588% · GSAT 205% · AD 170% |
| Alternative Carriers | 4 | 30.6% | 15.1% | -40.1% | IRDM 14% · UNIT -39% · LUMN -42% |
| Advertising | 18 | -20.1% | -10.3% | -60.8% | APP 363% · EVC 55% · OMC 30% |
| Broadcasting | 14 | -8.1% | -12.6% | -67.5% | FOXA 93% · NXST 32% · WBD 4% |
| Interactive Media & Services ← | 30 | -29.5% | -31.4% | -72.0% | GOOGL 143% · META 81% · EVER 19% |
| Interactive Home Entertainment | 8 | -48.3% | -55.3% | -87.6% | TTWO 40% · RBLX -38% · PINS -65% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 11.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,233 |
| Op Inc LTM | 111 |
| FCF LTM | 168 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 170 |
| CFO LTM | 211 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 211 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 21.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 49.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $2.46 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/24/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -11.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $2.30 | $1.96 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 7.1% | 25.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 41.8% | 57.9% |
| Downside Capture | 9.76 | 141.16 |
| Upside Capture | 69.57 | 133.79 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 21.3% | 29.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.28 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 1.07 | 1.36 | -0.15 |
| Up Beta | 2.87 | 0.42 | 1.43 | 1.03 | 0.78 | 0.21 |
| Down Beta | 8.75 | 2.80 | 1.75 | 1.93 | 1.76 | -0.78 |
| Up Capture | -25% | 58% | 74% | 99% | 154% | 18% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 30 | 57 | 109 | 119 |
| Down Capture | -83% | 110% | 51% | 66% | 131% | 79% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 31 | 61 | 121 | 137 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NXDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXDR | 18.3% | 57.9% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | -1.9% | 15.4% | -0.33 | 33.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.3% | 12.8% | 0.90 | 29.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.6% | 29.3% | 0.55 | 6.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.6% | 20.6% | 1.82 | -6.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 13.5% | 0.13 | 4.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -33.1% | 43.8% | -0.79 | 19.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NXDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXDR | 3.7% | 58.5% | 0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 6.9% | 21.0% | 0.24 | 30.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.4% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 30.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.7% | 18.8% | 0.80 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 19.5% | 0.47 | -6.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.8% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 5.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.7% | 52.5% | 0.38 | 18.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NXDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXDR | 1.8% | 58.5% | 0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.4% | 22.1% | 0.47 | 30.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 18.0% | 0.71 | 30.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.4% | 0.60 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 18.1% | 0.39 | -6.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.6% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 5.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.4% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 18.3% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | 6.1% | 15.2% | -1.3% |
| 5/6/2026 | 17.8% | 28.8% | 27.0% |
| 2/18/2026 | 5.5% | 4.2% | -11.5% |
| 11/5/2025 | -2.9% | -0.6% | 8.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | 13.7% | 2.7% | 9.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -0.6% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 17.8% | 28.8% | 27.0% |
| Max Negative | -2.9% | -0.6% | -11.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | 6.1% | 15.2% | -1.3% |
| 5/6/2026 | 17.8% | 28.8% | 27.0% |
| 2/18/2026 | 5.5% | 4.2% | -11.5% |
| 11/5/2025 | -2.9% | -0.6% | 8.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | 13.7% | 2.7% | 9.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -0.6% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 17.8% | 28.8% | 27.0% |
| Max Negative | -2.9% | -0.6% | -11.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/15/2022 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/5/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | Reported | 76.00 Mil | 77.00 Mil | 78.00 Mil | 6.9% | Higher New | Actual: 72.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 6.50 Mil | 7.25 Mil | 8.00 Mil | 45.0% | Higher New | Actual: 5.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 10.0% | 2.5% | Raised | Guidance: 7.5% for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | Reported | 71.00 Mil | 72.00 Mil | 73.00 Mil | 24.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 58.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adj. EBITDA | Reported | 4.00 Mil | 5.00 Mil | 6.00 Mil | -200.0% | Higher New | Guidance: -5.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adj. EBITDA Margin | Reported | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 14.5% | Higher New | Guidance: -9.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 10.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Adj. EBITDA Margin | Reported | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 2.5% | Raised | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | Reported | 57.00 Mil | 58.00 Mil | 59.00 Mil | -14.1% | Lower New | Actual: 67.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adj. EBITDA | Reported | -6.00 Mil | -5.00 Mil | -4.00 Mil | -225.0% | Lower New | Actual: 4.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adj. EBITDA Margin | Reported | -11.0% | -9.0% | -7.0% | -15.0% | Lower New | Actual: 6.0% for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | |||||||
| 2026 Adj. EBITDA Margin | Reported | 5.0% | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | Reported | 67.00 Mil | 67.50 Mil | 68.00 Mil | 2.3% | Higher New | Actual: 66.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adj. EBITDA | Reported | 3.50 Mil | 4.00 Mil | 4.50 Mil | -180.0% | Higher New | Actual: -5.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adj. EBITDA Margin | Reported | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 14.0% | Higher New | Actual: -8.0% for Q3 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | How, Antoinette | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 2.25 | 35,581 | Form | ||
| 2 | Kiernan, Michael | Chief Revenue Officer | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 2.39 | 111,559 | 266,314 | 1,214,135 | Form |
| 3 | Schwartz, Sophia | Chief Legal Officer, Secretary | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 2.51 | 2,500 | 6,286 | 847,026 | Form |
| 4 | Lisowski, Craig | President of Products | Direct | Sell | 7202026 | 2.51 | 30,000 | 75,195 | 4,321,514 | Form |
| 5 | Lisowski, Craig | President of Products | Direct | Sell | 7162026 | 2.50 | 60,000 | 150,096 | 4,388,114 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | How, Antoinette | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 2.25 | 35,581 | Form | ||
| 2 | Kiernan, Michael | Chief Revenue Officer | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 2.39 | 111,559 | 266,314 | 1,214,135 | Form |
| 3 | Schwartz, Sophia | Chief Legal Officer, Secretary | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 2.51 | 2,500 | 6,286 | 847,026 | Form |
| 4 | Lisowski, Craig | President of Products | Direct | Sell | 7202026 | 2.51 | 30,000 | 75,195 | 4,321,514 | Form |
| 5 | Lisowski, Craig | President of Products | Direct | Sell | 7162026 | 2.50 | 60,000 | 150,096 | 4,388,114 | Form |
| 6 | Schwartz, Sophia | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 6242026 | 2.25 | 28,616 | 64,435 | 692,976 | Form |
| 7 | Schwartz, Sophia | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 1.53 | 43,015 | 66,024 | 516,299 | Form |
| 8 | How, Antoinette | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 1.51 | 15,597 | 23,597 | 36,768 | Form |
| 9 | Schwartz, Sophia | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 1.65 | 2,500 | 4,125 | 472,869 | Form |
| 10 | How, Antoinette | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 1202026 | 1.95 | 13,935 | 27,124 | 35,563 | Form |
| 11 | Schwartz, Sophia | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 1202026 | 1.95 | 23,278 | 45,299 | 557,698 | Form |
| 12 | Schwartz, Sophia | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 2.07 | 12,522 | 25,974 | 522,041 | Form |
| 13 | Schwartz, Sophia | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 2.17 | 40,000 | 86,976 | 574,461 | Form |
| 14 | Lisowski, Craig | President of Products | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 2.52 | 30,000 | 75,600 | 3,396,010 | Form |
| 15 | How, Antoinette | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 2.63 | 31,894 | 83,894 | 33,385 | Form |
| 16 | Schwartz, Sophia | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 1.92 | 40,000 | 76,860 | 584,507 | Form |
| 17 | How, Antoinette | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 10172025 | 2.01 | 15,633 | 31,355 | 89,426 | Form |
| 18 | Schwartz, Sophia | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 10172025 | 2.07 | 40,000 | 82,996 | 714,166 | Form |
| 19 | How, Antoinette | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9192025 | 2.20 | 13,484 | 29,672 | 84,732 | Form |
| 20 | Schwartz, Sophia | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 9172025 | 2.12 | 40,000 | 84,956 | 683,004 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 16, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
| Communication Services Resources |
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External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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