Matrix Service (MTRX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.7 | Market Cap: $327.7 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction & Engineering
Matrix Service (MTRX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.7Market Cap: $327.7 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction & Engineering
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -47% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -23 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.8% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 20% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Hydrogen Economy, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include US LNG, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -47% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Hydrogen Economy, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include US LNG, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -23 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.8% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MTRX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the public company Matrix Service (MTRX), the approximate -22.3% stock movement can be attributed to several key factors identified in recent financial reporting and company news. While the requested period of 8/31/2025 to today is largely in the future, the following points reflect information available up to recent reporting dates (September 2025 for Fiscal Q4 2025 results) which aligns with a significant monthly decline of approximately -23.36% observed in recent stock performance.
1. Significant Net Loss and Missed Analyst Expectations: Matrix Service reported a widened net loss for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, reaching $(11.3) million, or $(0.40) per share. This marked a considerable increase from the net loss of $(4.4) million, or $(0.16) per share, in the corresponding quarter of fiscal 2024. The adjusted net loss of $(0.28) per share for Q4 fiscal 2025 significantly missed analyst estimates, which had projected earnings of $0.33 per share.
2. Revenue Shortfall and Reduced Guidance: Although Matrix Service experienced a 14% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4 fiscal 2025, reaching $216.4 million, this figure fell substantially below the consensus analyst estimate of $286.3 million. Compounding this, the company's fiscal 2026 revenue guidance, projected between $875 million and $925 million, was also below analyst expectations of $945.5 million.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MTRX Return | -52% | -32% | -17% | 57% | 22% | -5% | -50% |
| Peers Return | 43% | 77% | -5% | 60% | 22% | -8% | 327% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MTRX Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 60% | 42% | 60% | 60% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MTRX Max Drawdown | -68% | -40% | -54% | -24% | -10% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -5% | -38% | -12% | -10% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: APG, AAON, GFF, APOG, BXC. See MTRX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MTRX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -78.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 355.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1036 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -68.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 213.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -65.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 191.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 448 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 494.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1830 days | 1480 days |
Compare to APG, AAON, GFF, APOG, BXC
In The Past
Matrix Service's stock fell -78.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/11/2021. A -78.0% loss requires a 355.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MTRX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Matrix Service
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 51.18 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,955 |
| Op Inc LTM | 102 |
| FCF LTM | 69 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 131 |
| CFO LTM | 89 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 169 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 14.9 |
| P/E | 44.0 |
| P/CFO | 9.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -21.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 83.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -36.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 33.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 9102025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 9102024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 9122023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 10112022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |