Celsius (CELH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $42.11 | Market Cap: $10.9 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Celsius (CELH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $42.11Market Cap: $10.9 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 55% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.0x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 185x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 230x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 55% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.0x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 185x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 230x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CELH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Third Quarter 2025 GAAP Net Loss and Distributor Termination Costs:
Celsius Holdings reported a GAAP net loss of $61.0 million and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $(0.27) for the third quarter of 2025, in contrast to previous periods of profitability. This significant loss was primarily driven by $246.7 million in distributor termination costs, which were incurred as the company transitioned a substantial portion of the Alani Nu brand's distribution to PepsiCo's network.
2. Investor Concerns Over Future Guidance and Integration Challenges:
Despite reporting strong revenue of $725.1 million (a 173% increase year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $0.42 that surpassed analyst estimates, the market reacted negatively to concerns regarding future guidance and potential short-term disruptions. Investors were particularly wary of a "noisy fourth quarter" and the possibility of temporary inventory returns for Alani Nu as integration efforts continued, leading to uncertainty about near-term financial performance.
3. High Valuation Leading to Market Correction:
Prior to the decline, Celsius Holdings' stock traded at a high valuation, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio significantly above the industry average. This elevated valuation made the stock more susceptible to a sharp correction when negative news, such as the unexpected GAAP net loss and concerns about integration, emerged. The market's high expectations meant that any perceived headwinds could trigger a notable price adjustment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CELH Return | 942% | 48% | 40% | 57% | -52% | 55% | 2436% |
| Peers Return | 15% | 5% | -10% | 2% | -16% | 36% | 27% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CELH Win Rate | 83% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 25% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 56% | 48% | 56% | 50% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CELH Max Drawdown | -33% | -15% | -46% | -22% | -53% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -15% | -28% | -14% | -22% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KO, PEP, MNST, HLF, BYLT. See CELH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CELH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -62.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 166.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 189 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -51.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -52.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 439 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -99.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14100.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 466 days | 1480 days |
Compare to KO, PEP, MNST, HLF, BYLT
In The Past
Celsius's stock fell -62.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -62.5% loss requires a 166.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CELH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Celsius
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 70.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 72.2 |
| Rev LTM | 6,469 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,373 |
| FCF LTM | 1,234 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,642 |
| CFO LTM | 1,368 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,888 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 72.2 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| P/EBIT | 19.0 |
| P/E | 26.6 |
| P/CFO | 26.7 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 36.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 7.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 20.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -55.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |