Tearsheet

Celsius (CELH)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $42.11 | Market Cap: $10.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages

Celsius (CELH)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $42.11
Market Cap: $10.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 55%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.0x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 185x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 230x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 55%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.0x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 185x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 230x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CELH Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Third Quarter 2025 GAAP Net Loss and Distributor Termination Costs:

Celsius Holdings reported a GAAP net loss of $61.0 million and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $(0.27) for the third quarter of 2025, in contrast to previous periods of profitability. This significant loss was primarily driven by $246.7 million in distributor termination costs, which were incurred as the company transitioned a substantial portion of the Alani Nu brand's distribution to PepsiCo's network.

2. Investor Concerns Over Future Guidance and Integration Challenges:

Despite reporting strong revenue of $725.1 million (a 173% increase year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $0.42 that surpassed analyst estimates, the market reacted negatively to concerns regarding future guidance and potential short-term disruptions. Investors were particularly wary of a "noisy fourth quarter" and the possibility of temporary inventory returns for Alani Nu as integration efforts continued, leading to uncertainty about near-term financial performance.

3. High Valuation Leading to Market Correction:

Prior to the decline, Celsius Holdings' stock traded at a high valuation, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio significantly above the industry average. This elevated valuation made the stock more susceptible to a sharp correction when negative news, such as the unexpected GAAP net loss and concerns about integration, emerged. The market's high expectations meant that any perceived headwinds could trigger a notable price adjustment.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CELH Return942%48%40%57%-52%55%2436%
Peers Return15%5%-10%2%-16%36%27%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CELH Win Rate83%75%50%50%25%60% 
Peers Win Rate58%56%48%56%50%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CELH Max Drawdown-33%-15%-46%-22%-53%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-15%-28%-14%-22%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KO, PEP, MNST, HLF, BYLT. See CELH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCELHS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-62.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven166.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven189 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-51.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven106.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven63 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-52.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven111.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven439 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-99.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven14100.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven466 days1480 days

Compare to KO, PEP, MNST, HLF, BYLT


In The Past

Celsius's stock fell -62.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -62.5% loss requires a 166.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Celsius (CELH)

Better Bets than Celsius (CELH)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CELH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Celsius

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CELHKOPEPMNSTHLFBYLTMedian
NameCelsius Coca-ColaPepsiCo Monster .HerbalifeElite Pe. 
Mkt Price42.0070.81148.0673.9812.45-70.81
Mkt Cap10.8304.7202.772.21.3-72.2
Rev LTM2,12647,66392,3667,9754,96206,469
Op Inc LTM34314,91412,1932,258488-21,373
FCF LTM5245,5706,7881,945217-11,234
FCF 3Y Avg2506,3846,6451,642190-1,642
CFO LTM5557,60311,7552,180305-11,368
CFO 3Y Avg2738,33511,9741,888310-1,888

Growth & Margins

CELHKOPEPMNSTHLFBYLTMedian
NameCelsius Coca-ColaPepsiCo Monster .HerbalifeElite Pe. 
Rev Chg LTM55.1%2.8%0.5%7.6%-0.8%-100.0%1.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg57.5%4.0%3.4%8.6%-2.4%434.6%6.3%
Rev Chg Q172.9%5.1%2.7%16.8%2.7%-100.0%3.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM27.6%1.3%0.7%4.1%0.7%-100.0%1.0%
Op Mgn LTM16.1%31.3%13.2%28.3%9.8%-16.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg16.1%29.7%13.8%27.6%8.1%-16.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM5.7%0.7%-0.3%1.4%-0.1%-0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM26.1%16.0%12.7%27.3%6.1%-16.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.5%18.1%13.0%25.3%6.2%-15.5%
FCF/Rev LTM24.6%11.7%7.3%24.4%4.4%-11.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg14.0%13.9%7.2%22.0%3.8%-13.9%

Valuation

CELHKOPEPMNSTHLFBYLTMedian
NameCelsius Coca-ColaPepsiCo Monster .HerbalifeElite Pe. 
Mkt Cap10.8304.7202.772.21.3-72.2
P/S7.06.02.18.20.2-6.0
P/EBIT184.716.319.029.01.8-19.0
P/E230.221.926.638.12.7-26.6
P/CFO26.737.516.430.12.9-26.7
Total Yield0.4%7.5%7.7%2.6%36.8%-7.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.0%3.9%0.0%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.1%2.4%3.1%2.9%20.7%-2.9%
D/E0.10.20.00.02.5-0.1
Net D/E0.00.10.0-0.02.2-0.0

Returns

CELHKOPEPMNSTHLFBYLTMedian
NameCelsius Coca-ColaPepsiCo Monster .HerbalifeElite Pe. 
1M Rtn-29.1%4.9%3.1%11.2%54.3%-4.9%
3M Rtn-31.3%4.2%0.6%16.5%25.4%-4.2%
6M Rtn4.8%1.4%14.7%17.1%62.3%-14.7%
12M Rtn44.5%14.8%-4.9%36.5%59.6%-36.5%
3Y Rtn7.2%20.4%-12.8%42.2%-29.6%-7.2%
1M Excs Rtn-29.1%4.9%3.1%11.3%54.3%-4.9%
3M Excs Rtn-36.2%-0.1%-3.6%11.3%18.0%--0.1%
6M Excs Rtn-10.0%-13.3%0.0%2.4%47.6%-0.0%
12M Excs Rtn34.1%0.2%-19.5%20.7%46.7%-20.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-55.9%-48.3%-84.2%-27.6%-100.4%--55.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment1,31865431413175
Total1,31865431413175


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment227    
Total227    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,092,417
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120257.8%
Average Daily Volume12,102,506
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.33
Basic Shares Quantity257,778,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021316202210-K 12/31/2021